UK: in May 2007 the Bank of England expected GDP growth of 2.9% for 2008; the outcome was −3.8%
Forecasts of 110 releases (1997–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 46 times, below 64; typical error −0.28 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in January 2020: 1.5% expected for 2021, the outcome was 9.2%. The largest over-forecast in May 2019: 1.9% expected for 2020, the outcome was −7.8%.
Source: Central banks: published forecasts; actual: official statisticsOpen on the chart →