UK: in March 2008 HM Treasury expected GDP growth of 2.5% for 2009; the outcome was −4.5%
Next-year forecasts of 83 releases (1983–2024): the outcome above the forecast 34 times, below 49; typical error −0.10 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in March 2020: 1.8% expected for 2021, the outcome was 8.5%. The largest over-forecast in March 2019: 1.4% expected for 2020, the outcome was −10.0%.
Source: HM Treasury and the OBR (OBR historical forecasts database), European Commission (forecasts and AMECO); actual: OBR, ONS, AMECOOpen on the chart →