Turkey’s ruling party in 2018: fertility will stay at no less than 2.1 children per woman. By 2023 it had fallen to 1.52
Justice and Development Party (AKP)24 May 2018 · AKP election manifesto for the 24 June 2018 elections
«To preserve our country’s dynamic population structure, we will keep pursuing policies that hold the total fertility rate at least at replacement level.»
The TFR fell from 2.00 in 2018 to 1.52 in 2023, below the 2.1 replacement level in every year of the term.
Fact: TÜİK, Doğum İstatistikleri 2025 (21.05.2026), «Temel doğurganlık göstergeleri, 2001-2025»
Fertility was below the promise already in the election year. Over the five years to the next election it fell every year.
More
The Justice and Development Party, led by Erdoğan, promised in its 2018 programme to keep fertility at the level at which generations replace each other without loss. Here is the number of children per woman from Turkey’s statistical office.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Justice and Development Party (AKP), AKP election manifesto for the 24 June 2018 elections quote
«Ülkemizin dinamik nüfus yapısının korunması amacıyla, toplam doğurganlık hızını asgari olarak yenileme seviyesinde tutacak politikaları uygulamaya devam edeceğiz.» — To preserve our country’s dynamic population structure, we will keep pursuing policies that hold the total fertility rate at least at replacement level.
- What happened did not come true
The TFR fell from 2.00 in 2018 to 1.52 in 2023, below the 2.1 replacement level in every year of the term.
TÜİK, Doğum İstatistikleri 2025 (21.05.2026), «Temel doğurganlık göstergeleri, 2001-2025»
Quote: the party’s manifesto for the 24 June 2018 elections, section on the family (akparti.org.tr). Fact: Turkish Statistical Institute, birth statistics 2025, main fertility indicators. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The quote has no number: the party itself named replacement level, 2.1 children per woman, in its 2015 manifestos. The deadline is «the coming period», that is, until the 2023 election. The 2019 development plan set a goal of 2.15 by 2023; it is a separate claim of the set.
A question for this picture
Which government measures can hold fertility at 2.1 at all?