Tajikistan: 17% fewer babies in 1996 than before the war; 5% more in countries without war
Births relative to the 1989–1991 average: 83% in 1996. Peace-time countries with similar fertility (Jordan, Syria, Bhutan and 7 more): the typical one, 105%. Births are UN estimates; part of the fall may be people leaving the country.
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How many babies were born in the country during the war compared with the three years before it, and how births moved in the same years in countries without war. It is a comparison, not proof that the war alone did it.
Two lines: births in the country and the median of the comparison countries; 100 is the average of the three pre-war years. The red band marks the war years; the dot, the year with the fewest births.
- Tajikistan: births, index 100 = average of 1989–1991
1996: 83%
- Comparison countries: median 100 = average of 1989–1991
1996: 105%
Wars: UCDP/PRIO (at least 5,000 deaths and 1 per 100,000 people in the worst year). Peace-time countries: 10 countries without war in those years with the closest pre-war fertility. Selection: three pre-war years without conflict; births fell by 15% or more and 10 points more than in the peace-time countries.
Births in countries at war are UN estimates: registration is incomplete in such years. If millions left, there are fewer births also because fewer people remain.
A question for this picture
How many years after a war do births return to their former level, if they do?