Russia: Rosstat projected the population better than the UN — in all 5 pairs of projections
Projections from nearby years, checked against Rosstat's latest estimate. The three latest pairs: national office in blue, UN in orange. Below zero means fewer people than projected.
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Each national projection against the UN revision of the same years, both against Rosstat's latest estimate. For example, for 2025: Rosstat 2007 expected 136M (actual 5.5% above the projection), the UN 2006 projection 128M (actual 12.1% above the projection); the estimate is 144M.
Error = (estimate / projection − 1) × 100%. Each pair uses its latest common year; years can differ between pairs. The front shows the three latest pairs; all comparisons are below.
- Rosstat 2007 → 2025
136M → 144M; 5.54%
- UN 2006 → 2025
128M → 144M; 12.07%
- Population on 1 January without Crimea and Sevastopol (difference of Rosstat series; projections before 2015 did not include them) · 2025
144M
- Rosstat 2009 → 2025
141M → 144M; 2.05%
- UN 2008 → 2025
132M → 144M; 8.55%
- Population on 1 January without Crimea and Sevastopol (difference of Rosstat series; projections before 2015 did not include them) · 2025
144M
- Rosstat 2010 → 2025
141M → 144M; 1.95%
- UN 2010 → 2025
139M → 144M; 3.33%
- Population on 1 January without Crimea and Sevastopol (difference of Rosstat series; projections before 2015 did not include them) · 2025
144M
- Rosstat 2013 → 2025
143M → 144M; 0.28%
- UN 2012 → 2025
137M → 144M; 4.89%
- Population on 1 January without Crimea and Sevastopol (difference of Rosstat series; projections before 2015 did not include them) · 2025
144M
- Rosstat 2014 → 2025
144M → 144M; −0.45%
- UN 2015 → 2025
141M → 144M; 1.74%
- Population on 1 January without Crimea and Sevastopol (difference of Rosstat series; projections before 2015 did not include them) · 2025
144M
Use the central national scenario and the nearest UN edition, from one year before to two years after publication. Require at least three pairs; an absolute-error advantage of 0.5 percentage point counts as a win. Select countries where one side wins at least 75% of pairs.
The latest estimate can itself be revised. Nearby projections are not independent trials; this is not a general ranking of institutions. Countries with national and UN population counts over 3% apart are excluded, but a smaller difference does not prove identical definitions.
A question for this picture
Will the comparison change after the next population revision?