Russia: 975 thousand more people died than usual in 2020–2021; officially 304 thousand died of COVID
Deaths above the usual level were 3.2 times the recorded COVID deaths. Deaths are UN estimates; the usual level is taken from 2015–2019. The gap can include unreported COVID deaths, changes in other causes and baseline error; these components are not separated here.
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Deaths above the usual level (excess mortality): how many more people died than would have been expected without the pandemic. Official COVID deaths: what a country reported to WHO, definitions and completeness differed. The gap alone does not identify unreported deaths from the virus.
Blue is all deaths in a year; orange, a baseline calculated from 2015–2019. The difference in 2020–2021 is the deaths above the usual level.
- Deaths thousand deaths per year
1,789 (2019) → 2,440 (2021)
- Deaths above the usual, 2020–2021 people
975 thousand (27%)
- Official COVID deaths cumulative
304,218 (2021-12-26)
Expected deaths are computed two ways, by a straight line through 2015–2019 and by their mean; the one leaving fewer deaths above it is used (a cautious estimate; here, the mean). Official deaths: WHO’s cumulative count at the last report of 2021 (2021-12-26). Selection: countries of at least 5 million without a war in 2020–2021, with at least 10,000 and 10% deaths above the expected and an official count at least 3 times smaller; the ten largest.
Deaths are UN estimates (World Population Prospects 2024); where death registration is incomplete they are modelled. Not every excess death was caused by the virus: some came from overloaded hospitals and delayed care; on the other hand, lockdowns cut deaths from road accidents and flu.
A question for this picture
How many of these deaths were COVID itself, and how many overloaded hospitals and delayed care?