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  1. ForecastsRussia

    Russia: 4 downturns since 2009; the IMF expected none a year ahead

    4GDP downturns since 2009
    0expected by the IMF a year ahead

    Russia, real GDP, 2009–2025

    0200720252020
    GDP growth, actualIMF forecast a year earlier

    Every time it expected growth, +3.5% on average. The widest gap: 2009, expected +6.3%, outcome −7.8%.

    Source: IMF World Economic Outlook: editions 2007–2026 (forecasts) and April 2026 (latest data)Open on the chart →
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    GDP growth is how much the volume of everything a country’s economy produced changed in a year, net of price rises. Below zero, the economy shrank. Every April the IMF forecasts the next year; here that forecast is set against what happened.

    Blue: GDP growth in the IMF’s latest data, dots mark the years of decline. Orange: what the IMF expected for each year in the April before. The dashed line is zero: below it the economy shrinks.

    A downturn is a year when a country’s real GDP fell (growth below −0.05%, i.e. −0.1% or less once rounded) in the IMF’s latest data (April 2026). The forecast is the April World Economic Outlook of the year before; “expected a fall” means forecast growth below zero. Countries and years 2008–2025 with both a forecast and an outcome.

    A year-ahead forecast almost always shows growth: downturns usually come from events not visible a year earlier (crises, commodity price crashes, wars, the pandemic). The IMF will still revise recent outcomes.

    A question for this picture

    What do these downturns have in common, and could any of them have been seen a year ahead?

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