Russia: in December 2021 the Ministry of Finance expected inflation of 4.0% for 2022; the outcome was 11.9%
Next-year forecasts of 17 releases (2008–2024): the outcome above the forecast 12 times, below 5; typical error +0.97 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in December 2021: 4.0% expected for 2022, the outcome was 11.9%. The largest over-forecast in December 2016: 4.0% expected for 2017, the outcome was 2.5%.
Source: Russian Ministry of Finance: budget policy guidelines 2009–2026; 2009 budget law; Ministry of Economic Development; Bank of Russia; IMF (GDP)Open on the chart →