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  1. ForecastsRussia

    Russia’s 2015 budget assumed 37.0 ₽ to the dollar. The outcome: 61.3 ₽

    37.0 ₽assumed for 2015
    61.3 ₽outcome

    Russia: the dollar rate, annual average

    05010020092025

    Over 17 years the ruble came in weaker than assumed 11 times, stronger 5, and once about as assumed. 2025: 96.5 ₽ expected, 83.2 ₽ came.

    Source: Russian Ministry of Finance: budget policy guidelines 2009–2026; 2009 budget law; Ministry of Economic Development; Bank of Russia; IMF (GDP)Open on the chart →
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    Each autumn, with the draft budget, the government publishes its base forecast: the dollar rate, the oil price, growth and inflation for the next three years. Budget revenue is computed on these assumptions. Here: the assumptions for the next year against the outcome.

    By year: blue, what the budget assumed for that year (the forecast made a year earlier); orange, the outcome. The shading is the error.

    The Ministry of Finance’s budget policy guidelines (2009–2026), the 2009 budget law and the Ministry of Economic Development’s 2015 scenario: base case, value for the next year. Outcome: the rate, the average of the Bank of Russia’s official rates; Urals, the Ministry of Economic Development’s reported figures; GDP growth, IMF data (April 2026, from Rosstat); inflation, the Bank of Russia, December over December.

    A budget assumption is not a promise nor the Bank of Russia’s forecast: it is what revenue was computed on. Misses both ways show on the chart.

    A question for this picture

    What happens to a budget when its assumption misses reality by tens of percent?

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