Renewables’ share of electricity: 8 targets, 4 reached by the deadline. Germany: 55.1% against a target of 40%
- Germany: 40% by 202555.1%
- Turkey: 30% by 202342%
- Israel: 13% by 202516.9%
- Spain: 40% by 202042.9%
- US: 25% by 202524.1%
- Ireland: 40% by 202039.1%
- Scotland: 100% by 202097.4%
- Egypt: 20% by 202211.8%
Renewables’ share of electricity in the deadline year, %
8 targets, 4 reached by the deadline. Germany: 55.1% against a target of 40%.
Scotland fell 2.6 percentage points short of 100%, Ireland less than one. Furthest from its target was Egypt: 11.8% against a promised 20%.
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Governments and parties promised what share of electricity would come from wind, sun, water and biomass by a deadline. Here is one such target per country beside what came out in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Turkey: 30% by 2023 — Higher Planning Council of Turkey (Erdoğan government), 2009 % of electricity generation
promised 30 by 2023; fact 42 (140%). In 2023 renewables made 42.0% of electricity against at least 30%; the share has been above 30% since 2015 except 2017.
- Germany: 40% by 2025 — CDU/CSU and SPD (Merkel government), 2013 % of gross electricity consumption
promised 40 by 2025; fact 55 (138%). In 2025 renewables covered 55.1% of electricity consumption — above the whole 40–45% corridor and inside the corridor set for 2035.
- Israel: 13% by 2025 — Government of Israel (Benjamin Netanyahu cabinet), 2015 % of electricity generation
promised 13 by 2025; fact 17 (130%). 2025: 16.9% of generation against 13%; the share passed 13% already in 2024 (13.8%).
- Spain: 40% by 2020 — PSOE (2008 manifesto; José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero), 2008 % renewables in gross electricity consumption (EU directive method)
promised 40 by 2020; fact 43 (107%). In 2020 renewables supplied 42.9% of electricity consumption against a 40% goal (37.1% in 2019); in 2025, 60.7%.
- Ireland: 40% by 2020 — Government of Ireland (Fianna Fáil and Greens, minister Eamon Ryan), 2010 % of gross electricity consumption
promised 40 by 2020; fact 39 (98%). Renewables supplied 39.1% of Ireland’s electricity in 2020; 40% was passed in 2023 (40.4%).
- US: 25% by 2025 — U.S. Democratic Party, 2008 % of utility-scale generation
promised 25 by 2025; fact 24 (97%). In 2025 renewables provided 24.1% of utility-scale generation, up from 9.3% in 2008.
- Scotland: 100% by 2020 — Scottish National Party (Alex Salmond), 2011 % of gross electricity consumption
promised 100 by 2020; fact 97 (97%). In 2020 renewables generated the equivalent of 97.4% of Scotland’s electricity consumption, 85.2% in 2021 (a low-wind year) and 113% in 2022.
- Egypt: 20% by 2022 — New and Renewable Energy Authority of Egypt (NREA), 2018 % of electricity generation
promised 20 by 2022; fact 12 (59%). In 2022 renewables (including hydro) produced 11.8% of electricity against 20%; 13.0% by 2025.
Targets: a coalition agreement, government plans and party manifestos (document texts). Fact: Eurostat, Germany’s Federal Environment Agency, Ember, the US Energy Information Administration and the Scottish Government for the deadline year. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Germany, Spain, Ireland and Scotland count the share of consumption; Turkey, Israel, Egypt and the US the share of generation. Eurostat normalises wind and hydro output for the weather. Scotland’s target is generation equal to consumption: it sells part of its electricity to England; 97.4% is a provisional estimate, revised to 98–99%, still under 100%. With rooftop solar the US share is about 25.7%, so the target is met. In Spain demand fell in 2020 with the pandemic, which raised the share. The German 40–45% “corridor” was also a ceiling. In Turkey more than half is hydro, which depends on rainfall. Israel’s 2025 data are provisional. Egypt’s agency sometimes counts the share of capacity, which gives more.
A question for this picture
What moves the share of clean electricity more: a target in a programme or the price of turbines and panels?