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  1. FertilityRussia

    Putin’s 2012 decree: Russian fertility of 1.753 children per woman by 2018. In 2018: 1.556

    Vladimir Putin7 May 2012 · Decree No. 606 on demographic policy

    «ensure an increase of the total fertility rate to 1.753 by 2018»

    translated by Macroscope
    Did it come true?Did not come true

    2018: 1.556 against 1.753; only 2015 was above it (1.762).

    Fact: Росстат, Российский статистический ежегодник 2025, табл. 4.14

    1.51.61.720112012201320142015201620172019202020212018children per woman1.556 in 2018goal 1.753 by 20180.197 shortsaid

    Only 2015 was above the target, at 1.762. A 2018 decree set a new target of 1.7 by 2024; in 2024 it was 1.40.

    Source: Quotes from primary sources, facts from official statistics (links on the back)Open on the chart →
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    The president ordered the government to raise fertility to a set number in six years. Fertility rose until 2015 and then fell.

    First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.

    Quote: Decree No. 606 of 7 May 2012 on the Kremlin website. Fact: Russian Statistical Yearbook 2025, table 4.14. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.

    Rosstat recalculated 2011–2021 with the 2020 census: 2015 was first published as 1.777. The same decree set life expectancy at 74 by 2018: it was 72.91.

    A question for this picture

    What changed after 2015: fewer women, or fewer children per woman?

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