Promises to raise the minimum wage: 5 of 8 came true on time. Lowest was the US: $7.25 an hour instead of $9.50
- UK: over £8109%
- Portugal: €750 by 2023101%
- Germany: €8.50 by 2015100%
- Portugal: €600 by 2019100%
- Spain: €600 by 2008100%
- Ireland: €10.50 by 202197%
- Spain: €800 by 201280%
- US: $9.50 by 201176%
Minimum wage in the deadline year, % of the promised rate
5 of 8 came true on time. Lowest was the US: $7.25 an hour instead of $9.50.
Germany, Portugal (twice) and Spain in 2008 hit the number on time; the UK promised over £8 and gave £8.72. Spain’s €800 goal was set before the 2008 crisis, and in the US only an act of Congress changes the minimum.
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The minimum wage is one of the few promises a government can keep by its own decision or law. Here are eight such promises from six countries beside the minimum in force in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- UK: over £8 — Conservative Party (David Cameron), 2015 £ an hour
promised 8 by 2020; fact 9 (109%). From April 2020 the minimum was £8.72 an hour for workers aged 25 and over and £8.20 for those aged 21–24.
GOV.UK, National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates
- Portugal: €750 by 2023 — António Costa, 2019 euros per month (14 payments a year)
promised 750 by 2023; fact 760 (101%). In 2023 the minimum wage was €760 against a €750 goal.
DGERT, retribuição mínima mensal garantida; Decreto-Lei n.º 85-A/2022 (760 евро с 2023 года)
- Germany: €8.50 by 2015 — CDU/CSU and SPD (Merkel government), 2013 euros per hour gross
promised 9 by 2015; fact 9 (100%). The 8.50-euro hourly minimum wage applies from 1 January 2015 (MiLoG act); in 2025 it was 12.82 euros.
- Portugal: €600 by 2019 — António Costa, 2015 euros per month (14 payments a year)
promised 600 by 2019; fact 600 (100%). The minimum wage followed the promised path exactly: €530, €557, €580 and €600 in 2019.
- Spain: €600 by 2008 — José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, 2004 euros per month (14 payments a year)
promised 600 by 2008; fact 600 (100%). From 1 January 2008 the minimum wage was €600 a month, exactly as promised.
- Ireland: €10.50 by 2021 — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), 2016 € an hour
promised 11 by 2021; fact 10 (97%). The minimum wage was €10.20 an hour in 2021; €10.50 from January 2022.
Eurostat, earn_mw_cur (национальный минимум, ставки из приказов о минимальной оплате)
- Spain: €800 by 2012 — José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, 2008 euros per month (14 payments a year)
promised 800 by 2012; fact 641 (80%). In 2011–2012 the minimum wage was €641.40 against €800; it went above €800 in 2019 (€900).
BOE, Real Decreto 1795/2010 (641,40 евро на 2011 год; в 2012 году не менялась)
- US: $9.50 by 2011 — Barack Obama, 2008 dollars per hour, federal minimum
promised 10 by 2011; fact 7 (76%). The federal minimum has been $7.25 since July 24, 2009 (a 2007 law) and has not changed since.
U.S. Department of Labor, Wage and Hour Division, history of federal minimum wage rates
Promises: verbatim from party manifestos, coalition agreements and speeches. Fact: minimum wage laws and decrees (Germany, Portugal, Spain), Eurostat (Ireland), the UK government, the US Department of Labor. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Germany allowed sectoral exceptions below €8.50 until the end of 2016. In Ireland and the UK a low pay commission proposes the rate; Ireland reached €10.50 in January 2022. Spain’s minimum passed €800 only in 2019. Many US states set their own higher minimums.
A question for this picture
Why does the same kind of government promise come true to the day in some countries and not in others?