Promises of nursery and childcare places: 7 of 11 came true on time
- Japan: 400k places134%
- Poland: 10% of under-3s128%
- Korea: 150 centres a year109%
- Japan: 1.22M after-school108%
- England: 3,500 centres104%
- England: 500 programmes104%
- Spain: 50% of under-3s100%
- Germany: 35% of under-3s84%
- Japan: 320k places82%
- Hungary: +21k places81%
- Japan: 10k groups57%
Places, centres or children at the deadline, % of the promise
7 of 11 came true on time.
Japan in 2014 promised 400k new places and added about 535k. Germany expected 35% of children under 3 in childcare by 2013 and got 29.3%.
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Nurseries, children’s centres and after-school clubs are a common promise to families. Here are eleven promises from seven countries: the number of places or centres or the share of children attending, and what there was by the deadline.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Japan: 400k places — Komeito, 2014 10,000 places, cumulative increase since FY2013
promised 40 by 2017; fact 54 (134%). About 535,000 places were added in fiscal 2013–2017, more than the promised 400,000.
- Poland: 10% of under-3s — Government of Poland (Strategy for Responsible Development), 2017 children in crèches, children's clubs and crèche wards per 100 children under 3
promised 10 by 2020; fact 13 (128%). At the end of 2020 there were 128 children in crèches, children's clubs and crèche wards per 1,000 children under 3 (12.8%) against a 10% target.
GUS, Żłobki i kluby dziecięce w 2018, 2020, 2021 i 2022 r. (informacje sygnalne)
- Korea: 150 centres a year — Park Geun-hye and the Saenuri Party, 2012 cumulative increase in the number of public (국공립) childcare centres since end-2012 (2,203), at year-end
promised 600 by 2016; fact 656 (109%). Over 2013–2016 the number of public childcare centres rose by 656 (2,203 → 2,859) against the 600 pledged.
- Japan: 1.22M after-school — Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, 2017 places (利用定員) in after-school clubs on 1 May (2020: 1 July)
promised 1,220,000 by 2018; fact 1,320,297 (108%). By 1 May 2018 after-school clubs already had 1,320,297 places, against about 1,220,000 pledged.
Агентство по делам детей Японии, «令和5年 放課後児童健全育成事業（放課後児童クラブ）の実施状況»
- England: 3,500 centres — Labour Party (Tony Blair), 2005 Sure Start Children's Centres (2015: main centres plus further sites)
promised 3,500 by 2010; fact 3,632 (104%). There were 3,632 Sure Start centres in England in April 2010; the 3,500 target was reached on 22 March 2010.
House of Commons Library, Sure Start (England), Briefing Paper 7257, 9 June 2017
- England: 500 programmes — Labour Party (Tony Blair), 2001 Sure Start Local Programmes (SSLPs)
promised 500 by 2004; fact 521 (104%). By November 2003, 521 Sure Start Local Programmes were in operation, plus 46 mini programmes.
House of Commons Library, Sure Start (England), Briefing Paper 7257, 9 June 2017
- Spain: 50% of under-3s — Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), 2019 % of children aged 0–2 enrolled (school year starting in the given year)
promised 50 by 2025; fact 50 (100%). In the 2025/26 school year 50.2% of children aged 0–2 are enrolled; in 2024/25, 49.2%; in 2022/23, 45.6%.
Ministerio de Educación, Formación Profesional y Deportes, Datos avance
- Germany: 35% of under-3s — CDU/CSU and SPD parliamentary groups (Child Support Act, KiföG), 2008 % of children under 3 in day care (1 March)
promised 35 by 2013; fact 29 (84%). On 1 March 2013, 29.3% of children under 3 were in day care; 35% was reached in 2020.
- Japan: 320k places — Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, 2017 10,000 places, cumulative increase since FY2017
promised 32 by 2020; fact 26 (82%). About 261,000 places were added by the end of fiscal 2020, 82% of the promised 320,000.
- Hungary: +21k places — Viktor Orbán, 2019 operating crèche places (regular, mini, workplace, family), on 31 May
promised 68,169 by 2022; fact 55,370 (81%). In 2022 there were 55,370 crèche places — 8,201 more than in 2018 against the promised +21,000; the 68,169 level was passed in 2025 (68,828).
- Japan: 10k groups — Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, 2019 after-school clubs run in the same school with after-school classes (一体型, from 2024 called 校内交流型), on 1 May
promised 10,000 by 2023; fact 5,660 (57%). On 1 May 2024, 5,660 clubs ran in the integrated form, against a target of at least 10,000.
Агентство по делам детей Японии, «放課後児童健全育成事業（放課後児童クラブ）の実施状況» за 2023 и 2024 годы
Promises: election programmes of parties in Japan, Korea, Britain and Spain, government decisions in Germany and Poland, a speech by Hungary’s prime minister. Fact: statistics of these countries’ ministries and statistical offices at the deadline; each row links its source on the back. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The promises are of different kinds: added places, the number of centres, the share of children. Japan counts by fiscal year. Hungary reached the promised places by 2025, Germany the 35% share by 2020.
A question for this picture
What matters more to a family: the number of new places or the waiting list that remains?