Promises to hire people at the state’s expense: all 4 came true on time, at 102% to 243% of the promise
- France: 150k young people243%
- US: 100k federal hires110%
- UK: 20k police officers105%
- UK: 50k nurses102%
Hired by the deadline, % of the promised number of people
All 4 came true on time, at 102% to 243% of the promise.
The UK hired 20,951 police officers above the 2019 level and 51,245 more nurses. In France 364k young people held «jobs of the future» against a promised 150k.
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Some promises a state keeps by itself: it hires people or pays for their jobs. Here are four such promises from three countries beside how many people were hired by the deadline.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- France: 150k young people — François Hollande, 2012 young people who held a 'job of the future', cumulative
promised 150,000 by 2017; fact 364,000 (243%). The pledge was 150,000 jobs; from November 2012 to January 2018, 364,000 young people held one.
DARES, Document d'études n° 247 « Quel bilan dresser des emplois d'avenir ? », июль 2021
- US: 100k federal hires — U.S. Democratic Party, 2012 hired since FY2011, cumulative
promised 100,000 by 2015; fact 109,575 (110%). In FY2011–2015 the federal government hired 109,575 people with disabilities.
- UK: 20k police officers — Conservative Party (Boris Johnson), 2019 officers above the baseline (31 March)
promised 20,000 by 2023; fact 20,951 (105%). By 31 March 2023 the programme had added 20,951 officers over the baseline; England and Wales had 149,572 officers, more than at the 2010 peak.
Home Office, Police officer uplift, England and Wales, quarterly update to 31 March 2023
- UK: 50k nurses — Conservative Party (Boris Johnson), 2019 FTE nurses above September 2019
promised 50,000 by 2024; fact 51,245 (102%). In September 2023 the NHS in England had 51,245 more FTE nurses than in September 2019, six months before the deadline.
Promises: verbatim from party and candidate manifestos. Fact: UK Home Office (police in England and Wales), Department of Health and Social Care (nurses in England, full-time equivalent), US Office of Personnel Management, the French labour ministry (DARES). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Police: England and Wales; officer numbers fell by about 20,000 in 2010–2017, so the uplift largely restored the earlier level. Nurses: England, full-time equivalent; a notable share was recruited abroad. France: the pledge did not say whether it meant places held at once or all hires; here it is all hires; these were state-subsidised contracts, 71% in the non-market sector. US: the count includes disabled veterans.
A question for this picture
Which promises can a government keep by its own decision, and which do not depend on it?