Promises to build so many homes: 1 of 9 came true on time. From 1% of the promise in Kenya to 106% in England
- England: 1.5m by 2022106%
- Ireland: 33k a year91%
- Brazil: 2m by 201488%
- England: 275k affordable87%
- Scotland: 50k affordable83%
- Ireland: 25k a year82%
- France: 2.5m in a term72%
- Spain: 1.5m by 201724%
- Kenya: 500k affordable1%
Built by the deadline, % of the promised number of homes
1 of 9 came true on time. From 1% of the promise in Kenya to 106% in England.
Five promises reached 82% to 91% by the deadline and made up the rest in the next year or two. France started 72% of its promise; furthest were Spain and Kenya, at 24% and 1%.
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Parties and governments like to promise a number of new homes per term. Here are nine such promises from six countries beside what was built by the deadline.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- England: 1.5m by 2022 — Conservative Party (Theresa May), 2017 thousand homes, cumulative from 2015/16
promised 1,500 by 2022; fact 1,596 (106%). From April 2015 to March 2022 net additions in England were 1.60 million, and 1.83 million to March 2023.
MHCLG, Housing supply: net additional dwellings, England: 2024 to 2025, Figure 1
- Ireland: 33k a year — Government of Ireland (Micheál Martin, housing minister Darragh O’Brien), 2021 new homes a year
promised 33,000 by 2024; fact 30,124 (91%). 30,124 homes were completed in 2024, 91% of 33,000; 36,215 in 2025.
- Brazil: 2m by 2014 — Dilma Rousseff, 2010 million homes delivered since 2011 (cumulative)
promised 2 by 2014; fact 2 (88%). By end-2014, 1.77 million homes had been delivered since 2011; the 2 million mark was passed in 2015 (2.16 million). Contracts signed in 2011–2014 totalled 2.75 million.
- England: 275k affordable — Conservative Party (David Cameron), 2015 affordable homes in England, cumulative since April 2015 (end of March)
promised 275,000 by 2020; fact 238,398 (87%). England added 238,000 affordable homes from April 2015 to March 2020; 275,000 was passed in 2020/21 (290,000 by March 2021).
MHCLG, Live Table 1000: Additional affordable homes provided, England
- Scotland: 50k affordable — Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon), 2016 affordable homes completed since April 2016 (end of March)
promised 50,000 by 2021; fact 41,362 (83%). About 41,400 affordable homes were completed by March 2021; 50,000 was passed in March 2022 (51,119 by the end of March).
Scottish Government, Housing Statistics for Scotland quarterly update, 14 June 2022
- Ireland: 25k a year — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), 2016 new homes a year
promised 25,000 by 2020; fact 20,483 (82%). 20,483 new homes were completed in 2020 and 21,012 in 2019; more than 25,000 from 2022 (29,609).
- France: 2.5m in a term — François Hollande, 2012 homes started per year (sum over the term)
promised 2,500,000 by 2017; fact 1,803,156 (72%). The pledge was 2.5 million homes over the term; from June 2012 to May 2017, 1.80 million were started, against 2.02 million in the previous term.
- Spain: 1.5m by 2017 — José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, 2008 protected homes (final qualifications), cumulative since 2008
promised 1,500,000 by 2017; fact 358,534 (24%). In 2008–2017 about 359 thousand protected homes received final qualification, under a quarter of 1.5 million; the yearly number fell from 68.6 thousand (2008) to 4.9 thousand (2017).
- Kenya: 500k affordable — Government of Kenya (President Uhuru Kenyatta), 2018 housing units constructed
promised 500,000 by 2022; fact 5,019 (1%). 5,019 units were built in 2018/19–2021/22 — about 1% of 500,000.
Government of Kenya, Fourth Medium Term Plan 2023–2027 (review of MTP III)
Promises: verbatim from manifestos, speeches and government plans. Fact: official statistics of each country: completions (England, Ireland, Scotland, Brazil), starts (France), net additional dwellings (England, 1.5m), finished protected housing (Spain), a government review (Kenya). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The measures differ: starts are not completions; England’s net additions include offices converted to homes. Counting signed contracts, Brazil passed 2 million in 2013. France started 2.02 million homes in the previous term. Kenya’s plan review gives the target as 397,000 (1.3% met). In Scotland and Ireland sites closed in the 2020 lockdown.
A question for this picture
Why do housing promises so often come true a year or two after the deadline?