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  1. Science and space5 countries

    Probes to the Moon and Mars: of 8 promised launches, 3 went on time, two Chinese ones and the UAE’s

    • Chang’e 4 by 2018on time
    • China: to Mars by 2020on time
    • UAE: at Mars by 2021on time
    • Chandrayaan-3 by Aug 20220.9 years late
    • Korea: Moon orbiter by 20201.6 years late
    • Luna 25 by October 20211.8 years late
    • Chang’e 5 by 20172.9 years late
    • Europe: Mars rover by 2022not yet
    Did it come true?Came true: 3 of 8

    Of 8 promised launches, 3 went on time, two Chinese ones and the UAE’s.

    Chang’e 4 by 2018on timeChina: to Mars by 2020on timeUAE: at Mars by 2021on timeChandrayaan-3 by Aug 20220.9 years lateKorea: Moon orbiter by 20201.6 years lateLuna 25 by October 20211.8 years lateChang’e 5 by 20172.9 years lateEurope: Mars rover by 2022not yet

    Chang’e 5, sent for lunar soil, left 2.9 years after the deadline, Luna 25 1.8 years after. Europe’s Mars rover, promised for 2022, is waiting for a launch in 2028.

    Source: Quotes from primary sources, facts from official statistics (links on the back)Open on the chart →
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    A probe to the Moon or Mars must make its launch window: to Mars it opens every two years or so, and a week late means two years late. Here are eight promised launches of six countries and Europe.

    A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.

    Promises: verbatim from the primary sources, China’s 2016 space white paper, statements of space agencies and ministers. The date of the event is from a primary source, linked on the back for each row. The delay is counted from the end of the promised period: «by 2020» from the end of 2020, «in October» from the end of October. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.

    For the UAE probe the deadline is arrival at Mars; for the others, launch. Europe’s rover was to fly on a Russian rocket; in 2022 ESA suspended the joint mission with Roscosmos. Luna 25 crashed on the Moon after launch; only the launch date is compared here.

    A question for this picture

    What helps some space agencies make the launch window and not others?

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