Portugal: 16 years in a row, public debt above the European Commission’s forecast
Portugal: public debt, 2001–2016
2001–2016: every year both next-year forecasts (spring and autumn) missed the same way, by 10.0% of GDP on average.
More
Twice a year, in spring and autumn, the European Commission forecasts every EU country for this year and the next. Here: the next-year forecasts against the outcome in the latest data.
By target year: blue, the last forecast for that year; orange, the outcome. The shading is the error; all these years it stays on one side.
- March 2000 forecast for 2001
55.1% → 57.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2000 forecast for 2001
56.5% → 57.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2001 forecast for 2002
52.4% → 60.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2001 forecast for 2002
53.5% → 60.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2002 forecast for 2003
57.2% → 63.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2002 forecast for 2003
58.1% → 63.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2003 forecast for 2004
60.2% → 67.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2003 forecast for 2004
58.6% → 67.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2004 forecast for 2005
62.0% → 72.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2004 forecast for 2005
62.0% → 72.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2005 forecast for 2006
68.5% → 73.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2005 forecast for 2006
69.8% → 73.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2006 forecast for 2007
70.6% → 72.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2006 forecast for 2007
69.4% → 72.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2007 forecast for 2008
65.8% → 75.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2007 forecast for 2008
64.7% → 75.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2008 forecast for 2009
64.3% → 87.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2008 forecast for 2009
65.2% → 87.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2009 forecast for 2010
81.5% → 99.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2009 forecast for 2010
84.6% → 99.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2010 forecast for 2011
91.1% → 114.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2010 forecast for 2011
88.8% → 114.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2011 forecast for 2012
107.4% → 128.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2011 forecast for 2012
111.0% → 128.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2012 forecast for 2013
117.1% → 130.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2012 forecast for 2013
123.5% → 130.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2013 forecast for 2014
124.7% → 132.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2013 forecast for 2014
124.3% → 132.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2013 forecast for 2014
126.7% → 132.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2014 forecast for 2015
125.8% → 131.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2014 forecast for 2015
124.8% → 131.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2014 forecast for 2015
125.1% → 131.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2015 forecast for 2016
123.5% → 131.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2015 forecast for 2016
123.0% → 131.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2015 forecast for 2016
124.7% → 131.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
A year counts when every forecast of it made a year earlier missed the same way by more than 0.05; two editions for one year are one check. Years with a known outcome: 25. Ten selected long runs are shown. Error signs can be dependent; countries, variables and windows were searched. The probability of such a run arising by chance has not been estimated here. Outcome: AMECO, spring 2026.
Fiscal forecasts assume announced policy; new laws, crises and statistical revisions (new accounting rules) count as “error”. A run of errors with the same sign can reflect shared assumptions, shocks or data revisions; this selection does not separate them or rule out chance.
A question for this picture
What explains the run of errors: assumptions, shared shocks or data revisions?