Piñera in 2009: eradicate extreme poverty in Chile by 2014. In 2013: 4.3% of people
Sebastián Piñera2009 · Government programme 2010–2014 'for change, the future and hope'
«In fighting poverty, our concrete goals for the 2010–2014 presidential term are: • Eradicating extreme poverty by 2014, so that 500,000 people leave that undignified situation.»
Extreme poverty was 4.3% of the population in 2013 on Casen's current methodology (9.7% in 2009); the aim was to eradicate it by 2014.
Fact: Ministerio de Desarrollo Social y Familia, Encuesta Casen 2022: Resultados pobreza por ingresos
When the promise was made 9.7% lived in extreme poverty: by the end of the term the share had more than halved. No survey ever showed zero; the lowest was 2% in 2022.
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A Chilean presidential candidate promised to lift everyone out of extreme poverty in his term. Extreme poverty fell a lot but did not disappear.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Sebastián Piñera, Government programme 2010–2014 'for change, the future and hope' quote
«En materia de combate a la pobreza, nuestras metas concretas para el período presidencial 2010-2014 son las siguientes: • Erradicación de la pobreza extrema al año 2014, logrando que 500 mil personas superen esa indigna situación.» — In fighting poverty, our concrete goals for the 2010–2014 presidential term are: • Eradicating extreme poverty by 2014, so that 500,000 people leave that undignified situation.
Programa de Gobierno para el Cambio, el Futuro y la Esperanza. Chile 2010–2014
- What happened did not come true
Extreme poverty was 4.3% of the population in 2013 on Casen's current methodology (9.7% in 2009); the aim was to eradicate it by 2014.
Ministerio de Desarrollo Social y Familia, Encuesta Casen 2022: Resultados pobreza por ingresos
Quote: Sebastián Piñera’s government programme for 2010–2014. Fact: Chile’s Ministry of Social Development, the national Casen survey, series on the 2015 method. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The promise was made on Casen’s old method with a lower extreme-poverty line; on it the rate was lower but did not reach zero by 2013 either. The survey runs every two or three years; there is none for 2014. The second part of the pledge, «500,000 people», was not checked separately.
A question for this picture
Can extreme poverty reach zero when it is measured by a survey with an error margin?