Modi’s party in 2019: a $5 trillion Indian economy by 2025. In 2025: $3.9 trillion
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)8 April 2019 · Sankalp Patra 2019 manifesto, released 8 April 2019
«we commit to make India a US $ 5 trillion economy by 2025 and US $ 10 trillion economy by 2032.»
In 2025 India’s nominal GDP was about $3.9 trillion against the $5 trillion goal.
When the promise was made GDP was $2.8 trillion. By the deadline 78% of the target was reached; in 2020 the economy shrank in the pandemic.
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India’s ruling party put the size of the economy in dollars six years ahead into its manifesto. The economy grew but did not reach the target by the deadline.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Sankalp Patra 2019 manifesto, released 8 April 2019 quote
«we commit to make India a US $ 5 trillion economy by 2025 and US $ 10 trillion economy by 2032.»
- What happened did not come true
In 2025 India’s nominal GDP was about $3.9 trillion against the $5 trillion goal.
Quote: the Bharatiya Janata Party manifesto “Sankalp Patra” 2019, section on the roadmap to a $5 trillion economy. Fact: IMF World Economic Outlook, GDP in current dollars (NGDPD). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
IMF data for India are by fiscal year (April to March); 2025 is an estimate and may be revised. GDP in dollars also depends on the rupee’s rate. The 2020 dip was the pandemic. The same manifesto named $10 trillion by 2032.
A question for this picture
What says more about a country’s growth: the size of its economy in dollars or in its own currency?