Migration pledges in 9 countries and the EU: the outcome ranged from 17% to 332% of the promised number
- UK: net migration under 100k332%
- Germany: no more than 220k refugees a year45%
- Austria: no more than 37.5k claims96%
- Italy: 136k work visas28%
- France: resettle 10k refugees112%
- Sweden: a quota of 5k refugees100%
- EU: relocate 160k17%
- US: up to 125k refugees80%
- Canada: 485k permanent residents100%
- Australia: 185k programme places100%
Fact at the deadline, % of the promised number
The outcome ranged from 17% to 332% of the promised number.
Closest to the number are plans where the state itself issues the visas and places: Canada, Australia, Sweden. Furthest are UK net migration and the relocation of refugees within the EU.
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Governments name a number of people they will admit or keep out, and a deadline. Here is one such pledge per country beside what came out by the deadline.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- UK: net migration under 100k — Theresa May, 2010 thousand a year
promised 100 by 2015; fact 332 (332%). Goal: under 100,000 a year by 2015; in 2010–2015 net migration ranged from 177,000 to 332,000, and was 332,000 in 2015.
- France: resettle 10k refugees — Emmanuel Macron, 2017 people resettled to France in the year
promised 10,000 by 2019; fact 11,165 (112%). France resettled 11,165 refugees in 2018 and 2019 (5,565 and 5,600) against 10,000 pledged over two years.
- Sweden: a quota of 5k refugees — Swedish government (Stefan Löfven), 2016 people a year
promised 5,000 by 2018; fact 5,003 (100%). Promised 5,000 resettled in 2018 — 5,003 were resettled.
- Canada: 485k permanent residents — Government of Canada (IRCC), Immigration Minister Marc Miller, 2023 new permanent residents a year
promised 485,000 by 2024; fact 483,655 (100%). 2024 target 485,000; 483,655 admitted (99.7% of target).
IRCC, Permanent Residents – Monthly IRCC Updates (open.canada.ca), EN_ODP-PR-ProvImmCat.xlsx
- Australia: 185k programme places — Australian Government (Department of Home Affairs), 2024 permanent Migration Program places per program year
promised 185,000 by 2025; fact 185,001 (100%). 2024-25 planning level 185,000; 185,001 places delivered (100.0%).
Department of Home Affairs, Report on Migration Program 2024-25
- Austria: no more than 37.5k claims — Austrian government (Faymann, SPÖ–ÖVP) and the states, 2016 people a year
promised 37,500 by 2016; fact 36,030 (96%). Guideline for 2016: 37,500 admissions; 36,030 were admitted (96%), with 42,073 applications that year.
- US: up to 125k refugees — Joseph Biden, 2023 refugees per fiscal year
promised 125,000 by 2024; fact 100,034 (80%). FY2024 ceiling 125,000; 100,034 admitted (80% of the ceiling).
U.S. Department of State, Refugee Processing Center, Refugee Admissions Report (Cumulative Summary)
- Germany: no more than 220k refugees a year — CDU/CSU and SPD (Merkel coalition), 2018 thousand people a year
promised 220 by 2021; fact 98 (45%). The agreement said no more than 180,000–220,000 a year; by the government's own count it was about 159,000 in 2018, 126,000 in 2019 and 98,000 in 2020.
- Italy: 136k work visas — Italian government (Giorgia Meloni), 2023 people a year
promised 136,000 by 2023; fact 38,103 (28%). Ceiling for 2023: 136,000 work entries; 38,103 first residence permits for work were issued.
Евростат, migr_resfirst — первые виды на жительство, причина «работа» (EMP), Италия
- EU: relocate 160k — Council of the EU, 2015 people, cumulative since 2015
promised 160,000 by 2017; fact 27,695 (17%). 27,695 people had been relocated by September 2017 and 34,705 in total (12,706 from Italy, 21,999 from Greece) out of 160,000.
Each pledge is a verbatim quote from its primary source (a law, a government decision, a speech, a manifesto); the fact is official statistics of the same country or Eurostat for the same year. The whole set: «Data and API», /data/claims/. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The pledges differ in kind: cap, quota, plan, goal. Net migration also depends on who leaves; the US refugee ceiling is an upper bound, not an obligation. Years are fiscal where the country counts them so.
A question for this picture
Which migration pledges can a state keep by itself, and which depend on who comes?