Lula in 2010: Amazon deforestation of at most 3,925 km² a year by 2020. It was 10,851 km²
Government of Brazil (Lula da Silva)9 December 2010 · Decree No. 7,390/2010, art. 6 § 1 I — actions for the voluntary 2020 commitment under Law No. 12,187/2009
«an eighty per cent reduction in annual deforestation rates in the Legal Amazon relative to the 1996–2005 average»
The year to July 2020 saw 10,851 km² cleared against a ceiling of 3,925 km²; the closest year was 2012 (4,571 km²).
Fact: INPE, PRODES (TerraBrasilis); презентация INPE/MMA «PRODES 2023/2024», 06.11.2024
Clearing came closest to the target in 2012, at 4,571 km². From 2015 it rose, reaching 13,038 km² in 2021; in 2024 it was an estimated 6,288 km².
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A decree of Lula’s government set how far clearing in the Brazilian Amazon would fall: 80% below the 1996–2005 average. The deadline fell under Bolsonaro, and clearing that year was almost three times the target.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Government of Brazil (Lula da Silva), Decree No. 7,390/2010, art. 6 § 1 I — actions for the voluntary 2020 commitment under Law No. 12,187/2009 quote
«redução de oitenta por cento dos índices anuais de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal em relação à média verificada entre os anos de 1996 a 2005» — an eighty per cent reduction in annual deforestation rates in the Legal Amazon relative to the 1996–2005 average
- What happened did not come true
The year to July 2020 saw 10,851 km² cleared against a ceiling of 3,925 km²; the closest year was 2012 (4,571 km²).
INPE, PRODES (TerraBrasilis); презентация INPE/MMA «PRODES 2023/2024», 06.11.2024
Quote: Decree No. 7,390 of 9 December 2010, art. 6 (under climate policy law No. 12,187/2009). Fact: Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), PRODES satellite monitoring. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Lula signed the decree; the deadline fell under Bolsonaro; in 2023 Lula became president again. The 2024 value is an estimate from priority imagery. The same decree set a target for the Cerrado savanna too (−40%).
A question for this picture
What matters more for Amazon clearing: targets in law or how they are enforced on the ground?