Legault before the 2018 election: in 2019 Quebec will take 40,000 immigrants, down from 51,125. It took 40,565
François Legault5 September 2018 · remarks to reporters during the Quebec election campaign, September 5, 2018
«But I am announcing it to you today: in 2019, the threshold will be reduced to 40,000.»
40,565 permanent residents were admitted to Quebec in 2019 (51,125 in 2018). Later: 68,720 in 2022, 59,440 in 2024, 60,130 in 2025.
The promise was for one year, and it was kept. Afterwards admissions grew again: 68,720 people in 2022, 60,130 in 2025.
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Quebec selects part of its immigrants itself. François Legault, leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec, promised in the 2018 campaign to cut admissions for 2019. He won the election and became the province’s premier.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- François Legault, remarks to reporters during the Quebec election campaign, September 5, 2018 quote
«Mais je vous l'annonce aujourd'hui : en 2019, le seuil va être réduit à 40 000» — But I am announcing it to you today: in 2019, the threshold will be reduced to 40,000.
Radio-Canada, «La CAQ entend abaisser le seuil d'immigration à 40 000 dès 2019» (5 September 2018)
- What happened came true
40,565 permanent residents were admitted to Quebec in 2019 (51,125 in 2018). Later: 68,720 in 2022, 59,440 in 2024, 60,130 in 2025.
Quote: Legault’s remarks to reporters on 5 September 2018, in a Radio-Canada report. Fact: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), open data on permanent residents by province. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
In 2020 the borders were closed by the pandemic. The 2022 figure includes admissions above plan making up for the 2020 shortfall. The federal open data round numbers to 5.
A question for this picture
If admissions are cut for a year and then grow above where they were, what did the promise change?