Macroscope
RU
RU
Loading findings…

  1. ForecastsJapan

    Japan: 6 downturns since 2008; the IMF expected none a year ahead

    6GDP downturns since 2008
    0expected by the IMF a year ahead

    Japan, real GDP, 2008–2025

    −50200720252020
    GDP growth, actualIMF forecast a year earlier

    Every time it expected growth, +1.3% on average. The widest gap: 2009, expected +1.5%, outcome −5.9%.

    Source: IMF World Economic Outlook: editions 2007–2026 (forecasts) and April 2026 (latest data)Open on the chart →
    More

    GDP growth is how much the volume of everything a country’s economy produced changed in a year, net of price rises. Below zero, the economy shrank. Every April the IMF forecasts the next year; here that forecast is set against what happened.

    Blue: GDP growth in the IMF’s latest data, dots mark the years of decline. Orange: what the IMF expected for each year in the April before. The dashed line is zero: below it the economy shrinks.

    A downturn is a year when a country’s real GDP fell (growth below −0.05%, i.e. −0.1% or less once rounded) in the IMF’s latest data (April 2026). The forecast is the April World Economic Outlook of the year before; “expected a fall” means forecast growth below zero. Countries and years 2008–2025 with both a forecast and an outcome.

    A year-ahead forecast almost always shows growth: downturns usually come from events not visible a year earlier (crises, commodity price crashes, wars, the pandemic). The IMF will still revise recent outcomes.

    A question for this picture

    What do these downturns have in common, and could any of them have been seen a year ahead?

More findings

All findings →