Japan: in December 2000 the government expected GDP growth of 1.7% for 2001; the outcome was −0.8%
Next-year forecasts of 24 releases (1998–2024): the outcome above the forecast 6 times, below 18; typical error −0.90 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in December 2009: 1.4% expected for 2010, the outcome was 3.4%. The largest over-forecast in December 2007: 2.0% expected for 2008, the outcome was −3.3%.
Source: Cabinet of Japan: economic outlooks 1980–2026 (before 1998, speeches to the Diet); outcome: ESRI and the Statistics Bureau of JapanOpen on the chart →