Japan in 2010: electric cars to be at least 15% of new car sales by 2020. They were 0.77%
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan12 April 2010 · Next-Generation Vehicle Strategy 2010, METI study group
«2020–2030 passenger car diffusion targets by type (government target)… electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles 15–20% (2020)»
In 2020 EVs were 0.8% of new car sales; 3% in 2025.
The share did not grow: 1.2% in 2017, 0.77% in 2020. In 2025, 3%.
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In 2010 Japan’s economy ministry and carmakers set out which cars would be sold in 2020 and 2030. Electric and plug-in hybrid cars were given 15–20% of sales by 2020. Here is their actual share.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, Next-Generation Vehicle Strategy 2010, METI study group quote
«2020～2030 年の乗用車車種別普及目標（政府目標）…電気自動車・プラグイン・ハイブリッド自動車 15～20%（2020年）» — 2020–2030 passenger car diffusion targets by type (government target)… electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles 15–20% (2020)
Министерство экономики, торговли и промышленности Японии (METI)
- What happened did not come true
In 2020 EVs were 0.8% of new car sales; 3% in 2025.
Goal: the Next-Generation Vehicle Strategy 2010, study group of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), 12 April 2010. Fact: International Energy Agency, Global EV Data Explorer. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The same document had a «private» scenario with lower shares. Ordinary hybrids, which sell well in Japan, are not in the series: the strategy counted them separately.
A question for this picture
Japan bet early on hybrids: did that help electric cars or hold them back?