Italy: in 1995 young graduates were more often unemployed than high-school peers, 21.2% against 13.4%; in 2025 less often, 6.1% against 8.6%
Eurostat shows the same for ages 25–29: 23.5% with tertiary against 16.3% with upper secondary in 2000, 8.2% against 9.8% in 2025. In Germany over the same years the gap went the other way and vanished.
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Italy long had an unusual pattern: young people with a degree were more often out of work than peers with a school diploma. Now it is the other way round, and the gap is beyond the survey error. Neighbouring Germany moved the opposite way.
Lines: unemployment of people aged 25–34, % of each group's labour force: with tertiary education (ISCED 5–8) and with upper secondary (ISCED 3–4).
- Italy: unemployment aged 25–34, tertiary / upper secondary % of labour force
1995: 21.2 / 13.4; 2000: 15.5 / 12.2; 2005: 13.8 / 8.1; 2010: 12.8 / 10.1; 2015: 16.3 / 16.0; 2020: 11.4 / 13.5; 2025: 6.1 / 8.6
- Italy: unemployment aged 25–29, tertiary / upper secondary (Eurostat) % of labour force
2000: 23.5 / 16.3; 2025: 8.2 / 9.8
OECD: Education at a Glance; Eurostat: EU Labour Force Survey · CC BY 4.0
OECD, Education at a Glance: unemployment aged 25–34 by education with errors. 1995 is the year graduates lagged most before 2015. 2025: gap 2.5 pp with a standard error of 0.34, beyond 1.96 errors. Eurostat, lfsa_urgaed, ages 25–29.
The OECD marks a break in Italy's series before 2013, so early and late levels are not exactly comparable; the gap between groups within one year does not depend on it. Many Italian graduates enter the labour market late, after 25. The data show timing, not cause.
A question for this picture
Where are graduates more often unemployed than high-school peers now?