Italy: in April 2008 the European Commission expected GDP growth of 0.8% for 2009; the outcome was −5.3%
Next-year forecasts of 55 releases (2000–2024): the outcome above the forecast 15 times, below 40; typical error −0.50 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in November 2020: 4.1% expected for 2021, the outcome was 8.9%. The largest over-forecast in May 2019: 0.7% expected for 2020, the outcome was −8.9%.
Source: HM Treasury and the OBR (OBR historical forecasts database), European Commission (forecasts and AMECO); actual: OBR, ONS, AMECOOpen on the chart →