Ireland’s government in 2016: 5 goals for five years. Four were reached, but a year or two after the deadline
- Bring back 70k emigrants203%
- Minimum wage €10.5097%
- 25k new homes a year82%
- 200k new jobs79%
- Self-employed credit €1,65070%
Fact at the deadline, % of the promised number
5 goals for five years. Four were reached, but a year or two after the deadline.
The self-employed tax credit was €1,150 in 2018 instead of €1,650; 20,483 homes were built in 2020 instead of 25k. Twice as many Irish citizens arrived as promised, but almost as many left.
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Enda Kenny’s coalition government wrote into its five-year programme how many jobs, homes and returning emigrants there would be and what the minimum wage would become. Here are all its numeric «at least» goals.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Bring back 70k emigrants — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), 2016 thousand Irish-citizen immigrants, cumulative since May 2016
promised 70 by 2021; fact 142 (203%). In the five years to April 2021, 141,800 Irish citizens moved to Ireland; about 139,000 left over the same period.
CSO, PEA17: Estimated Immigration (Persons in April) by nationality
- Minimum wage €10.50 — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), 2016 € an hour
promised 11 by 2021; fact 10 (97%). The minimum wage was €10.20 an hour in 2021; €10.50 from January 2022.
Eurostat, earn_mw_cur (национальный минимум, ставки из приказов о минимальной оплате)
- 25k new homes a year — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), 2016 new homes a year
promised 25,000 by 2020; fact 20,483 (82%). 20,483 new homes were completed in 2020 and 21,012 in 2019; more than 25,000 from 2022 (29,609).
- 200k new jobs — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), 2016 thousand in work above the 2016 average
promised 200 by 2020; fact 157 (79%). Employment was 189,000 above 2016 in 2019, 157,000 above in 2020 (the pandemic) and 291,000 above in 2021.
- Self-employed credit €1,650 — Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), 2016 € a year, maximum credit
promised 1,650 by 2018; fact 1,150 (70%). The credit was €1,150 in 2018 and €1,350 in 2019; €1,650 from 2020.
Goals: «A Programme for a Partnership Government» (May 2016). Fact: the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Eurostat and Revenue (Ireland). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Emigrants: the programme names no deadline; the end of the government’s term, 2021, is taken; the CSO counts arriving Irish citizens, some of whom had never lived in Ireland; about 139k citizens left over the same years, so the net inflow was about zero. Jobs: the programme names no base; here it is the 2016 average; from the 2015 average the gain by 2020 is 233k; 200k was passed in 2021, 2020 is the pandemic. The €10.50 minimum wage came in 2022; the programme left the size of rises to the Low Pay Commission. 25k homes came in 2022; sites were shut for lockdown in spring 2020. The €1,650 credit came in 2020.
A question for this picture
What does a goal reached a year or two after its deadline say about the promise?