Reported COVID deaths and excess deaths are different counts
2020–2021, 10 large countries. Reported COVID deaths divided by estimated excess deaths: Egypt 7%, Russia 31%. Brazil: the reported count exceeds estimated excess deaths. These are not a part and its whole.
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For each country: official COVID deaths (as reported to WHO) divided by deaths above the usual level of 2015–2019. 100% means the official count matches the rise in deaths; 10% means a one-to-ten ratio, not a measured detection rate.
Bars show reported COVID deaths / estimated excess deaths × 100%. The ratio can exceed 100%. The front shows the minimum, Russia (or the middle entry) and the maximum; the full selected list is below.
- Egypt official / above the usual
22 thousand / 297 thousand → 7%
- Pakistan official / above the usual
29 thousand / 325 thousand → 9%
- Bangladesh official / above the usual
28 thousand / 292 thousand → 10%
- India official / above the usual
480 thousand / 4.46 million → 11%
- Indonesia official / above the usual
144 thousand / 1.01 million → 14%
- Philippines official / above the usual
51 thousand / 217 thousand → 24%
- Russia official / above the usual
304 thousand / 975 thousand → 31%
- Mexico official / above the usual
303 thousand / 628 thousand → 48%
- United States official / above the usual
813 thousand / 1.07 million → 76%
- Brazil official / above the usual
618 thousand / 559 thousand → 111%
Deaths: UN estimates (World Population Prospects 2024). The usual level is a straight line through 2015–2019 or their mean, whichever leaves fewer excess deaths. Official deaths: WHO’s cumulative count at the end of 2021. Countries: the ten most populous of at least 30 million without a war in 2020–2021, with at least 10,000 and 5% excess deaths; if none has a ratio above 100%, the tenth is replaced by the largest country that does.
The ratio depends on COVID reporting, UN estimates and the reference baseline. Changes in other causes can raise or lower it. These two counts alone establish neither the reasons for the gap nor an undercount rate.
A question for this picture
How does the ratio change with a different mortality baseline?