Greece: 9 years in a row, the budget worse than the European Commission’s forecast
Greece: budget balance, 2001–2009
2001–2009: every year both next-year forecasts (spring and autumn) missed the same way, by 6.3% of GDP on average.
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Twice a year, in spring and autumn, the European Commission forecasts every EU country for this year and the next. Here: the next-year forecasts against the outcome in the latest data.
By target year: blue, the last forecast for that year; orange, the outcome. The shading is the error; all these years it stays on one side.
- March 2000 forecast for 2001
−0.6% → −5.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2000 forecast for 2001
−0.3% → −5.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2001 forecast for 2002
+0.6% → −6.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2001 forecast for 2002
+0.3% → −6.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2002 forecast for 2003
+0.5% → −8.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2002 forecast for 2003
−1.1% → −8.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2003 forecast for 2004
−1.0% → −9.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2003 forecast for 2004
−2.4% → −9.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2004 forecast for 2005
−2.8% → −6.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2004 forecast for 2005
−3.6% → −6.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2005 forecast for 2006
−4.4% → −6.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2005 forecast for 2006
−3.8% → −6.0%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2006 forecast for 2007
−3.6% → −6.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2006 forecast for 2007
−2.6% → −6.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2007 forecast for 2008
−2.7% → −10.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2007 forecast for 2008
−1.8% → −10.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2008 forecast for 2009
−2.0% → −15.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2008 forecast for 2009
−2.2% → −15.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
A year counts when every forecast of it made a year earlier missed the same way by more than 0.05; two editions for one year are one check. Years with a known outcome: 25. Ten selected long runs are shown. Error signs can be dependent; countries, variables and windows were searched. The probability of such a run arising by chance has not been estimated here. Outcome: AMECO, spring 2026.
Fiscal forecasts assume announced policy; new laws, crises and statistical revisions (new accounting rules) count as “error”. Against the first estimates of the time the errors were much smaller: most of the gap came from the later revision of Greek deficit statistics. A run of errors with the same sign can reflect shared assumptions, shocks or data revisions; this selection does not separate them or rule out chance.
A question for this picture
What explains the run of errors: assumptions, shared shocks or data revisions?