Greece: by the first data, the 2001 budget ended with a surplus of 0.1% of GDP. Today: a deficit of 5.6% of GDP
Greece: budget balance in 2001, % of GDP
Against the first data the Commission’s year-ahead forecasts missed both ways: the budget came in better 2 times and worse 6. Against today’s data it was worse than forecast in 9 years of 10.
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In spring and autumn the European Commission forecasts every EU country’s budget balance for the next year. The first data on a year come out the next spring; later the statistics can be recalculated.
By year, 2001–2010: blue, Greece’s budget balance by the first data (the next spring); orange, by today’s data. Below zero is a deficit. The shading is the revision.
- 2001: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
−0.6% and −0.3% → +0.1% → −5.6%
- 2002: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
+0.6% and +0.3% → −1.2% → −6.2%
- 2003: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
+0.5% and −1.1% → −3.0% → −8.0%
- 2004: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
−1.0% and −2.4% → −6.1% → −9.1%
- 2005: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
−2.8% and −3.6% → −4.5% → −6.3%
- 2006: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
−4.4% and −3.8% → −2.6% → −6.0%
- 2007: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
−3.6% and −2.6% → −2.8% → −6.8%
- 2008: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
−2.7% and −1.8% → −5.0% → −10.3%
- 2009: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
−2.0% and −2.2% → −13.6% → −15.4%
- 2010: forecasts → first data → now % of GDP
−5.7% and −12.2% → −10.5% → −11.4%
- Report on Greek government deficit and debt statistics
European Commission, January 2010 (COM(2010) 1)
Forecasts: the Commission’s spring and autumn editions a year before each target year (2001–2010); first data: the next year’s spring forecast; today’s data: AMECO, spring 2026. “Better” or “worse”: on one side of both forecasts of the year by more than 0.05% of GDP. Sign test against today’s data: p = 0.004.
The gap between the first and today’s data is the revision of Greek fiscal statistics. In January 2010 the Commission’s report on Greek deficit and debt statistics found “severe irregularities” in the 2009 notifications; the 2008 deficit was then revised from 5.0% to 7.7% of GDP, and later higher. How accurate a forecast looks depends on the data it is checked against.
A question for this picture
If the data on the past can move by 5% of GDP, which should a forecast be checked against: the first figures or today’s?