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  1. Fertility6 countries

    Goals to lower fertility in Africa and South Asia: 2 of 9 came true on time. Pakistan expected 2.6 by 2020 and had 3.77

    • Rwanda: 4.5 by 20124.2
    • Rwanda: 3.4 by 20184.05
    • Rwanda: 3 by 20203.91
    • Tanzania: 5 by 20155.03
    • Malawi: 3.5 by 20164.22
    • Uganda: 4.5 by 20204.62
    • Pakistan: 2.6 by 20203.77
    • India: 2.1 by 20102.6
    • India: 2.1 by 20251.98

    Children per woman in the deadline year

    Did it come true?Came true: 2 of 9

    2 of 9 came true on time. Pakistan expected 2.6 by 2020 and had 3.77.

    Rwanda: 4.5 by 20124.2Rwanda: 3.4 by 20184.05Rwanda: 3 by 20203.91Tanzania: 5 by 20155.03Malawi: 3.5 by 20164.22Uganda: 4.5 by 20204.62Pakistan: 2.6 by 20203.77India: 2.1 by 20102.6India: 2.1 by 20251.98

    Tanzania and Uganda reached their targets two years late, India reached 2.1 ten years late. Rwanda passed its first target, 4.5, but not the later ones.

    Source: Quotes from primary sources, facts from official statistics (links on the back)Open on the chart →
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    Many high-fertility countries write a goal to lower it into their development plans. Here are nine such goals from six countries beside what came out in the deadline year.

    A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.

    Targets: verbatim from the development plans of Rwanda, Tanzania, Malawi, Uganda and Pakistan and from India’s population and health policies. Fact: UN estimates (World Population Prospects 2024). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.

    National surveys give their own numbers, which differ from UN estimates by tenths. Fertility fell in all six countries, but in most more slowly than the plans expected. The data do not show that the plans caused the falls.

    A question for this picture

    Why did plans so often expect fertility to fall faster than it did?

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