Germany: 10 years in a row, unemployment below the European Commission’s forecast
Germany: unemployment, 2010–2019
2010–2019: every year both next-year forecasts (spring and autumn) missed the same way, by 1 percentage point on average.
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Twice a year, in spring and autumn, the European Commission forecasts every EU country for this year and the next. Here: the next-year forecasts against the outcome in the latest data.
By target year: blue, the last forecast for that year; orange, the outcome. The shading is the error; all these years it stays on one side.
- April 2009 forecast for 2010
10.4% → 6.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- October 2009 forecast for 2010
9.2% → 6.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- April 2010 forecast for 2011
7.8% → 5.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2010 forecast for 2011
6.7% → 5.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2011 forecast for 2012
6.0% → 5.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2011 forecast for 2012
5.9% → 5.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2012 forecast for 2013
5.3% → 4.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2012 forecast for 2013
5.6% → 4.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2013 forecast for 2014
5.6% → 4.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2013 forecast for 2014
5.3% → 4.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2013 forecast for 2014
5.3% → 4.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2014 forecast for 2015
5.1% → 4.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2014 forecast for 2015
5.1% → 4.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2014 forecast for 2015
5.1% → 4.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2015 forecast for 2016
4.8% → 3.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2015 forecast for 2016
4.4% → 3.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2015 forecast for 2016
4.9% → 3.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2016 forecast for 2017
5.2% → 3.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2016 forecast for 2017
4.7% → 3.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2016 forecast for 2017
4.3% → 3.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2017 forecast for 2018
4.1% → 3.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2017 forecast for 2018
3.9% → 3.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2017 forecast for 2018
3.5% → 3.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2018 forecast for 2019
3.5% → 2.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2018 forecast for 2019
3.2% → 2.9%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
A year counts when every forecast of it made a year earlier missed the same way by more than 0.05; two editions for one year are one check. Years with a known outcome: 25. Ten selected long runs are shown. Error signs can be dependent; countries, variables and windows were searched. The probability of such a run arising by chance has not been estimated here. Outcome: AMECO, spring 2026.
A run of errors with the same sign can reflect shared assumptions, shocks or data revisions; this selection does not separate them or rule out chance.
A question for this picture
What explains the run of errors: assumptions, shared shocks or data revisions?