Germany in 2010: greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 1990 by 2020. In 2020: 41.7% below
German government (Angela Merkel)28 September 2010 · Energy Concept, Bundestag document 17/3049
«In line with the coalition agreement, greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced by 40 percent by 2020 and by at least 80 percent by 2050, in each case relative to 1990.»
2020: 41.7% below 1990; 2019 was 36.3%, 2021 39.1%; above 40% again since 2022.
In 2019 the cut was 36.3%: the target was met in the pandemic year and emissions rose again in 2021. Since 2022 the cut has stayed above 40%; in 2024, 48.1%.
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Germany’s government said how much it would cut emissions over 30 years. The target was met on time, largely because of the 2020 slump.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- German government (Angela Merkel), Energy Concept, Bundestag document 17/3049 quote
«Entsprechend der Koalitionsvereinbarung sollen bis 2020 die Treibhausgasemissionen um 40 Prozent und entsprechend der Zielformulierung der Industriestaaten bis 2050 um mindestens 80 Prozent – jeweils gegenüber 1990 – reduziert werden.» — In line with the coalition agreement, greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced by 40 percent by 2020 and by at least 80 percent by 2050, in each case relative to 1990.
- What happened came true
2020: 41.7% below 1990; 2019 was 36.3%, 2021 39.1%; above 40% again since 2022.
- 1990 Mt CO₂e
1,253 Mt
- 2020 Mt CO₂e
731 Mt, 41.7% below 1990
- 2024 Mt CO₂e
650 Mt, 48.1% below
Quote: the Energy Concept (Bundestag document 17/3049, p. 2). Fact: German Environment Agency (UBA), 2026 table, without land use; 1990: 1,253 Mt. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Until 2019 the government itself expected about −33%. First estimates for 2020 were about −40.8%; the numbers here are from the latest inventory.
A question for this picture
Is a target met if it was reached the year the economy stopped?