Finland: women born in 1980 had 1.82 children each on average; 2023’s rates imply 1.26
Two different yardsticks. The first is what one generation actually had over a lifetime; the second is what a woman would have if she spent her whole life at 2023’s rates. First births now come at age 30 on average; how many children today’s young women will end up with is not yet known.
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A calendar year and a generation answer different questions. The annual figure adds up one year’s birth rates at each age; the generation’s figure counts children born to women of one birth year, followed to at least age 44.
Same unit, different clocks: one bar is labelled with the women’s birth year, the other with a calendar year. They are set side by side on purpose; this is not a change over time.
- Completed cohort fertility children per woman; year = birth year of women
1.82 (1980)
- Total fertility rate children per woman
1.26 (2023)
Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01
- Mean age at first birth years
29.96 (2023)
- Childlessness by cohort % of women; year = birth year of women
21.9 (1980)
Latest observed generation born since 1970 and the latest annual figure up to 2023; age at first birth for the same calendar year. No correction for postponement and no forecast for today’s generation.
The observed generation does not predict how many children young women today will eventually have.
A question for this picture
Fewer children, later children, or both? What would today’s young generation have to do to match this year’s picture over a lifetime?