1. ForecastsFinland

   Finland: 8 years in a row, inflation below the European Commission’s forecast

   1.6%expected on average

   0.8%outcome on average

   Finland: inflation, 2013–2020

   2013–2020: every year both next-year forecasts (spring and autumn) missed the same way, by 0.7 percentage points on average.

   Source: HM Treasury and the OBR (OBR historical forecasts database), European Commission (forecasts and AMECO); actual: OBR, ONS, AMECOOpen on the chart →

   More

   Twice a year, in spring and autumn, the European Commission forecasts every EU country for this year and the next. Here: the next-year forecasts against the outcome in the latest data.

   By target year: blue, the last forecast for that year; orange, the outcome. The shading is the error; all these years it stays on one side.

   • May 2012 forecast for 2013

     2.5% → 2.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • November 2012 forecast for 2013

     2.5% → 2.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • March 2013 forecast for 2014

     2.2% → 1.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • May 2013 forecast for 2014

     2.2% → 1.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • November 2013 forecast for 2014

     1.9% → 1.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • February 2014 forecast for 2015

     1.6% → −0.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • May 2014 forecast for 2015

     1.4% → −0.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • November 2014 forecast for 2015

     1.3% → −0.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • February 2015 forecast for 2016

     1.3% → 0.4%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • May 2015 forecast for 2016

     1.3% → 0.4%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • November 2015 forecast for 2016

     0.6% → 0.4%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • February 2016 forecast for 2017

     1.5% → 0.8%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • May 2016 forecast for 2017

     1.3% → 0.8%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • November 2016 forecast for 2017

     1.1% → 0.8%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • February 2017 forecast for 2018

     1.2% → 1.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • May 2017 forecast for 2018

     1.2% → 1.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • November 2017 forecast for 2018

     1.3% → 1.2%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • May 2018 forecast for 2019

     1.7% → 1.1%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • November 2018 forecast for 2019

     1.6% → 1.1%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • May 2019 forecast for 2020

     1.6% → 0.4%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   • November 2019 forecast for 2020

     1.4% → 0.4%

     European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)

   A year counts when every forecast of it made a year earlier missed the same way by more than 0.05; two editions for one year are one check. Years with a known outcome: 25. Ten selected long runs are shown. Error signs can be dependent; countries, variables and windows were searched. The probability of such a run arising by chance has not been estimated here. Outcome: AMECO, spring 2026.

   A run of errors with the same sign can reflect shared assumptions, shocks or data revisions; this selection does not separate them or rule out chance.

   A question for this picture

   What explains the run of errors: assumptions, shared shocks or data revisions?

More findings

• Finland: births up for the second year in a row
• Finland: the poorest go without a doctor almost twice as often as in the 2010s
• Finland: women outlive men but have 2.2 fewer healthy years
• Finland: 30% read no books, while 23% read ten or more a year
• Israel: 15-year-olds with problems from social media rose from 5% to 16%, and maths did not fall; in Norway there are fewer, and maths fell 33 points
• Finland and Vietnam: almost equal fertility in 2010 (1.86 and 1.91 children per woman); by 2022, 1.32 and 1.93

All findings →