Fertility targets in 4 countries: none reached by its deadline. Korea: 0.84 children per woman against 1.5
- Russia: 1.753 by 20181.56
- Russia: 1.7 by 20241.4
- China: about 1.8 by 20201.3
- Japan: 1.8 by 20251.14
- Korea: 1.5 by 20200.84
Total fertility rate in the deadline year, children per woman
None reached by its deadline. Korea: 0.84 children per woman against 1.5.
All five targets were set by governments in programmes with money and a deadline. By the deadline year fertility was lower everywhere than in the year the target was set.
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The governments of Russia, China, Japan and Korea wrote into their programmes how many children a woman should have on average by a given year. Here the target is beside what came out in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Russia: 1.753 by 2018 — Vladimir Putin, 2012 children per woman
promised 2 by 2018; fact 2 (89%). 2018: 1.556 against 1.753; only 2015 was above it (1.762).
Росстат, Российский статистический ежегодник 2025, табл. 4.14
- Russia: 1.7 by 2024 — Vladimir Putin, 2018 children per woman
promised 2 by 2024; fact 1 (82%). The goal was 1.7 children per woman in 2024; it was 1.40, lower than in the year of the decree (1.556).
Росстат, Российский статистический ежегодник 2025, табл. 4.14; 2024 — оперативные данные ЕДН
- China: about 1.8 by 2020 — State Council of China, 2016 children per woman
promised 2 by 2020; fact 1 (72%). The target was 1.8 children per woman in 2020; the 2020 census gave 1.3.
- Japan: 1.8 by 2025 — Government of Japan (Shinzo Abe), 2016 children per woman
promised 2 by 2025; fact 1 (63%). The goal was a desired fertility rate of 1.8, with a roadmap to FY2025; in 2025 it was 1.14 (1.45 in 2015).
Минздрав Японии (MHLW), «令和7(2025)年 人口動態統計月報年計(概数)の概況», табл. 2
- Korea: 1.5 by 2020 — Government of South Korea (Park Geun-hye), 2015 children per woman
promised 2 by 2020; fact 1 (56%). The target was 1.5 by 2020; in 2020 it was 0.84, with a low of 0.72 in 2023.
Targets: verbatim from the concepts, decrees and plans (government websites, document texts). Fact: national statistics (Rosstat, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Statistics Korea) for the deadline year. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The level at which a generation replaces itself is about 2.1. China’s target reads «about 1.8». Japan’s target is the «desired fertility»: the number of children people say they would like to have. Russia set a target twice.
A question for this picture
What can family support programmes change if fertility falls where there are none too?