1. What comes first

   In 88% of countries fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online

   Years compared in 112 countries where the order is known; median gap 20 years. The opposite order: 10% of countries. Moving together in time does not prove a cause, but it shows what usually comes first.

   Source: UN WPP 2024, World Bank, national statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• In 98% of countries fertility fell below 3 only after life expectancy passed 60
• In 69% of countries fertility fell below 3 only after the urban share passed 50%

All findings →