UK Conservatives in 2015: income up to £12,500 a year free of income tax by 2020. It was so from 2019
Conservative Party (David Cameron)14 April 2015 · manifesto Strong Leadership, a Clear Economic Plan, a Brighter, More Secure Future
«during the next Parliament, we will increase the tax-free Personal Allowance to £12,500 and the higher rate threshold to £50,000, so you keep more of your hard-earned money.»
The allowance reached £12,500 in April 2019, a year early (it was £10,600 in 2015/16).
Fact: HMRC, Income Tax rates and allowances for current and previous tax years
In 2015 the tax-free amount was £10,600, and it was raised every year. The second promise of the same sentence, the higher rate only from £50,000, was also kept in 2019.
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The party promised to raise the amount of income on which no income tax is charged. It was raised every year and reached the promise a year early.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Conservative Party (David Cameron), manifesto Strong Leadership, a Clear Economic Plan, a Brighter, More Secure Future quote
«during the next Parliament, we will increase the tax-free Personal Allowance to £12,500 and the higher rate threshold to £50,000, so you keep more of your hard-earned money.»
- What happened came true
The allowance reached £12,500 in April 2019, a year early (it was £10,600 in 2015/16).
HMRC, Income Tax rates and allowances for current and previous tax years
Quote: the Conservative Party manifesto 2015. Fact: HM Revenue and Customs, income tax rates and allowances for current and past years. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
From 2021/22 the allowance is £12,570 and then frozen until 2028: as prices and wages rise, its real value falls. The higher rate threshold is for England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
A question for this picture
Why do tax promises come true more often than promises about growth and jobs?