Bangladesh’s Awami League in 2008 promised that life expectancy would reach 70 years by 2021. It came to 71.1
Bangladesh Awami LeagueDecember 2008 · «A Charter for Change», manifesto for the 29 December 2008 election
«2021: Longevity increases to 70 years.»
2021: life expectancy 71.1 years (UN estimate); 70 was passed already in 2014.
Fact: Всемирный банк, WDI (оценки ООН) / World Bank WDI (UN estimates)
The 70 mark was passed back in 2014. In the pandemic life expectancy fell from 72.6 to 71.1 years; in 2022 it rose to 74.3.
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Before the 2008 election the Awami League issued «A Charter for Change» with goals for 2021, the 50th anniversary of independence. One was a life expectancy of 70 years. The party won and has governed since.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Bangladesh Awami League, «A Charter for Change», manifesto for the 29 December 2008 election quote
«2021: Longevity increases to 70 years.»
- What happened came true
2021: life expectancy 71.1 years (UN estimate); 70 was passed already in 2014.
Всемирный банк, WDI (оценки ООН) / World Bank WDI (UN estimates)
Quote: the 2008 manifesto «A Charter for Change», section «Proposed milestones» (albd.org). Fact: World Bank, UN estimates (SP.DYN.LE00.IN). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics publishes its own estimates from sample registration, and they differ. In its 2014 manifesto the party promised 72 years by 2021; that is a separate claim of the set: passed in 2018, but in 2021 it was lower.
A question for this picture
A goal passed seven years early: a bold promise or a cautious one?