In 2007 Russia set a goal of 1.96 children per woman by 2025. In 2024 it was 1.4
President of Russia (Decree No. 1351)9 October 2007 · Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation to 2025, Decree No. 1351 of 9 October 2007
«By 2025 it is planned to […] raise the total fertility rate 1.5 times compared with 2006»
The 2024 TFR was 1.40, below the 2016 level and 28% short of the 1.96 target.
Fact: Росстат, Российский статистический ежегодник 2025, таблица 4.14
That is 1.5 times the 2006 level (1.305). The interim goal for 2016 was passed: 1.762 against a plan of 1.697. Fertility has fallen since.
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The Concept of Demographic Policy, approved by presidential decree, set goals for three stages up to 2025. The main fertility goal was one and a half times as many children per woman as in 2006. Here is Rosstat’s total fertility rate for recent years.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- President of Russia (Decree No. 1351), Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation to 2025, Decree No. 1351 of 9 October 2007 quote
«К 2025 году предполагается: […] увеличить в 1,5 раза по сравнению с 2006 годом суммарный коэффициент рождаемости» — By 2025 it is planned to […] raise the total fertility rate 1.5 times compared with 2006
- What happened did not come true
The 2024 TFR was 1.40, below the 2016 level and 28% short of the 1.96 target.
Росстат, Российский статистический ежегодник 2025, таблица 4.14
Goal: the Concept of Demographic Policy to 2025, Decree No. 1351 of 9 October 2007, section 6 (kremlin.ru). Fact: Rosstat, Russian Statistical Yearbook 2025, table 4.14. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Values are after Rosstat’s recalculation by the 2020 census; from 2022 without the newly annexed regions. The yearbook has no 2025 figure yet, so the provisional 2024 value is used. The interim goal for 2016 is a separate claim of the same decree.
A question for this picture
What does it say about population policy that the first goal came true and the second did not?