{ "cases": [ { "id": "gbr_migration", "iso3": "GBR", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Великобритания: в 2005–2025 годах миграция добавила 6,52 млн, а прогноз 2004 года ждал 3,23 млн", "en": "UK: the GAD 2004 projection expected net migration of +3.23M for 2005–2025; the outcome was +6.52M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Великобритания: чистая миграция — прогнозы ONS и факт", "en": "UK: net migration — ONS projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Британия · миграция", "en": "UK · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "6 основных прогнозов британской статистики против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл: сальдо миграции оказалось выше прогноза в 5 из 6. Сильнее всего недооценил миграцию прогноз 2004 года: за 2005–2025 ждали +3,23 млн, вышло +6,52 млн. В другую сторону ошибся прогноз 2022 года: за 2023–2025 ждали +2,26 млн, вышло +1,8 млн. Первые годы прогноза часто совпадают с тогдашней предварительной оценкой; факт последних лет ещё будут уточнять.", "en": "6 principal ONS and GAD projections against the facts over the years each has covered: net migration was higher than expected in 5 of 6. The largest under-projection of migration: GAD 2004 expected +3.23M for 2005–2025, the outcome was +6.52M. The other way: ONS 2022 expected +2.26M for 2023–2025, the outcome was +1.8M. The first projected years often equal the then provisional estimate; recent facts will be revised again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (ONS, год до 30 июня)", "en": "Actual (ONS, year to 30 June)" }, "values": { "2002": 173.171, "2003": 171.487, "2004": 193.878, "2005": 318.089, "2006": 233.567, "2007": 285.453, "2008": 265.478, "2009": 203.952, "2010": 244.967, "2011": 263.621, "2012": 171.041, "2013": 213.148, "2014": 248.105, "2015": 297.502, "2016": 328.176, "2017": 204.114, "2018": 217.594, "2019": 228.194, "2020": 101.98, "2021": 227.028, "2022": 673.357, "2023": 922.883, "2024": 651.69, "2025": 222.861 }, "src": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland/mid2011tomid2025/myebtablesuk20112025.xlsx", "definition": "Long-term international migration (UN definition: change of usual residence for at least 12 months) into minus out of the UK, mid-year to mid-year (1 July - 30 June), as used in the official mid-year population estimates (MYE). Includes asylum seekers/refugees and switcher adjustments; excludes moves between UK countries, armed-forces/special-population changes and unattributed change (these are in other_change). Same concept and period as the NPP projections." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "GAD 2004", "en": "GAD 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "GAD (Департамент правительственного актуария), прогноз с базой 2004 г.", "en": "GAD 2004-based" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2005-10-20", "variant": "principal", "values": { "2005": 255.0, "2006": 195.0, "2007": 170.0, "2008": 145.0, "2009": 145.0, "2010": 145.0, "2011": 145.0, "2012": 145.0, "2013": 145.0, "2014": 145.0, "2015": 145.0, "2016": 145.0, "2017": 145.0, "2018": 145.0, "2019": 145.0, "2020": 145.0, "2021": 145.0, "2022": 145.0, "2023": 145.0, "2024": 145.0, "2025": 145.0, "2026": 145.0, "2027": 145.0, "2028": 145.0, "2029": 145.0 }, "src": "http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Population/2004/uk/wuk04cc.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "ONS 2008", "en": "ONS 2008" }, "label_full": { "ru": "ONS, прогноз с базой 2008 г.", "en": "ONS 2008-based" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2009-10-21", "variant": "principal", "values": { "2009": 187.0, "2010": 205.8, "2011": 200.8, "2012": 195.8, "2013": 190.8, "2014": 185.8, "2015": 180.0, "2016": 180.0, "2017": 180.0, "2018": 180.0, "2019": 180.0, "2020": 180.0, "2021": 180.0, "2022": 180.0, "2023": 180.0, "2024": 180.0, "2025": 180.0, "2026": 180.0, "2027": 180.0, "2028": 180.0, "2029": 180.0, "2030": 180.0, "2031": 180.0, "2032": 180.0, "2033": 180.0 }, "src": "http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/npp2008/natpopproj2008.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ONS 2012", "en": "ONS 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "ONS, прогноз с базой 2012 г.", "en": "ONS 2012-based" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013-11-06", "variant": "principal", "values": { "2013": 164.5, "2014": 165.5, "2015": 164.5, "2016": 183.5, "2017": 171.0, "2018": 174.0, "2019": 165.0, "2020": 165.0, "2021": 165.0, "2022": 165.0, "2023": 165.0, "2024": 165.0, "2025": 165.0, "2026": 165.0, "2027": 165.0, "2028": 165.0, "2029": 165.0, "2030": 165.0, "2031": 165.0, "2032": 165.0, "2033": 165.0, "2034": 165.0, "2035": 165.0, "2036": 165.0, "2037": 165.0 }, "src": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/compendium/nationalpopulationprojections/2014-03-28/chapter5migration2012basednppreferencevolume" }, { "label": { "ru": "ONS 2016", "en": "ONS 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "ONS, прогноз с базой 2016 г.", "en": "ONS 2016-based" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2017-10-26", "variant": "principal", "values": { "2017": 246.125, "2018": 232.134, "2019": 222.129, "2020": 210.626, "2021": 189.494, "2022": 177.024, "2023": 164.996, "2024": 164.996, "2025": 164.996, "2026": 164.996, "2027": 164.996, "2028": 164.996, "2029": 164.996, "2030": 164.996, "2031": 164.996, "2032": 164.996, "2033": 164.996, "2034": 164.996, "2035": 164.996, "2036": 164.996, "2037": 164.996, "2038": 164.996, "2039": 164.996, "2040": 164.996 }, "src": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/tablea11principalprojectionuksummary/2016based/ukpppsummary16.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "ONS 2020", "en": "ONS 2020" }, "label_full": { "ru": "ONS, прогноз с базой 2020 г. (промежуточный)", "en": "ONS 2020-based interim" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2022-01-12", "variant": "principal", "values": { "2021": 244.498, "2022": 236.989, "2023": 231.015, "2024": 224.004, "2025": 217.0, "2026": 211.514, "2027": 205.011, "2028": 205.011, "2029": 205.011, "2030": 205.011, "2031": 205.011, "2032": 205.011, "2033": 205.011, "2034": 205.011, "2035": 205.011, "2036": 205.011, "2037": 205.011, "2038": 205.011, "2039": 205.011, "2040": 205.011 }, "src": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/tablea11principalprojectionuksummary/2020basedinterim/ukpppsummary20.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "ONS 2022", "en": "ONS 2022" }, "label_full": { "ru": "ONS, прогноз с базой 2022 г.", "en": "ONS 2022-based" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2025-01-28", "variant": "principal", "values": { "2023": 906.0, "2024": 728.0, "2025": 630.9, "2026": 533.8, "2027": 436.7, "2028": 340.0, "2029": 340.0, "2030": 340.0, "2031": 340.0, "2032": 340.0, "2033": 340.0, "2034": 340.0, "2035": 340.0, "2036": 340.0, "2037": 340.0, "2038": 340.0, "2039": 340.0, "2040": 340.0 }, "src": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/tablea11principalprojectionuksummary/2022based/ukpppsummary.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2030 ], "view": "c=GBR&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "ONS and GAD stress that national population projections are not forecasts: migration assumptions are trend-based, do not try to predict policy or economic effects, and long-term values are meant as averages around which single years will vary.", "Keys are years ending 30 June (mid-year to mid-year), not calendar years; do not mix with calendar-year LTIM figures.", "The first projection year(s) are often not pure assumptions: they were partly based on then-provisional data (2004-, 2006-, 2008-, 2014-based first year) or simply equal the then-latest provisional estimate (2021-based YE mid-2023; 2022-based YE mid-2023 and mid-2024; 2024-based YE mid-2025; 2020-based migration variant YE mid-2021 and mid-2022). For those years a gap mostly reflects later revisions of the estimates, not forecasting skill.", "Older vintages report 'net migration' including special allowances (EU-accession migration, returning armed forces); at UK level cross-border flows between UK countries are zero.", "The actual series combines two official vintages (2002-2011 from the June 2021 detailed time series; 2012-2025 from the October 2026 release) - both are the latest published values for their years. Estimates for 2012-2020 and 2022-2024 have been revised substantially; recent years will be revised again.", "Unattributable population change (MYE 2002-2011, e.g. from under-counted migration revealed by the 2011 Census) sits in 'other_change', not in net international migration.", "2004-2012-based source files were retrieved from Internet Archive copies of the original GAD/ONS/statistics.gov.uk URLs because the UK Government Web Archive (webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk) blocked automated access with a CAPTCHA; their values were verified against the live ONS compilation (cross_check). Copies are saved in raw/.", "2020-based migration variant (Jan 2023) is a variant, not a principal projection; it is included because ONS advised using it instead of the Jan 2022 principal." ] }, { "id": "deu_migration", "iso3": "DEU", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Германия: в 2009–2025 годах миграция добавила 7,86 млн, а прогноз 2009 года ждал 2,36 млн", "en": "Germany: the Destatis 2009 projection expected net migration of +2.36M for 2009–2025; the outcome was +7.86M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Германия: чистая миграция — прогнозы Destatis и факт", "en": "Germany: net migration — Destatis projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Германия · миграция", "en": "Germany · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "5 согласованных прогнозов статистического ведомства Германии (вариант 2) против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл: сальдо миграции оказалось выше прогноза в 5 из 5. Сильнее всего недооценил миграцию прогноз 2009 года: за 2009–2025 ждали +2,36 млн, вышло +7,86 млн. Первые годы прогноза часто совпадают с тогдашней предварительной оценкой; факт последних лет ещё будут уточнять.", "en": "5 Destatis coordinated projections (variant W2) against the facts over the years each has covered: net migration was higher than expected in 5 of 5. The largest under-projection of migration: Destatis 2009 expected +2.36M for 2009–2025, the outcome was +7.86M. The first projected years often equal the then provisional estimate; recent facts will be revised again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (Destatis, сальдо миграции)", "en": "Actual (Destatis, net migration)" }, "values": { "1991": 602.523, "1992": 782.071, "1993": 462.096, "1994": 314.998, "1995": 397.935, "1996": 282.197, "1997": 93.664, "1998": 47.098, "1999": 201.975, "2000": 167.12, "2001": 272.723, "2002": 219.288, "2003": 142.645, "2004": 82.543, "2005": 78.953, "2006": 22.791, "2007": 43.912, "2008": -55.743, "2009": -12.782, "2010": 127.677, "2011": 279.33, "2012": 368.945, "2013": 428.607, "2014": 550.483, "2015": 1139.402, "2016": 499.944, "2017": 416.08, "2018": 399.68, "2019": 327.06, "2020": 220.251, "2021": 329.163, "2022": 1462.089, "2023": 662.964, "2024": 430.183, "2025": 235.0 }, "src": "https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Wanderungen/Tabellen/wanderungen-zwischen-deutschland-und-dem-ausland-jahr-02.html", "definition": "Registered moves across Germany's borders (Zuzüge minus Fortzüge over the borders of Germany), calendar year, all persons (Germans and non-Germans), from the registration-office reports (Wanderungsstatistik). From 1991 all of Germany, including moves with origin/destination 'ungeklärt' / 'ohne Angabe'. Same concept as the projections' 'Wanderungssaldo' (Außenwanderungssaldo)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Destatis 2006", "en": "Destatis 2006" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Destatis, 11-й согласованный прогноз (2006), вариант W2", "en": "Destatis 11th coordinated projection (2006), W2" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2006-11-07", "variant": "W2 (Variante 1-W2: upper bound of the \"medium\" population)", "values": { "2006": 50.0, "2007": 75.0, "2008": 100.0, "2009": 150.0, "2010": 200.0, "2011": 200.0, "2012": 200.0, "2013": 200.0, "2014": 200.0, "2015": 200.0, "2016": 200.0, "2017": 200.0, "2018": 200.0, "2019": 200.0, "2020": 200.0, "2021": 200.0, "2022": 200.0, "2023": 200.0, "2024": 200.0, "2025": 200.0, "2026": 200.0, "2027": 200.0, "2028": 200.0, "2029": 200.0, "2030": 200.0, "2031": 200.0, "2032": 200.0, "2033": 200.0, "2034": 200.0, "2035": 200.0, "2036": 200.0, "2037": 200.0, "2038": 200.0, "2039": 200.0, "2040": 200.0 }, "src": "https://www.statistischebibliothek.de/mir/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/DEMonografie_derivate_00000597/5124202069005.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Destatis 2009", "en": "Destatis 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Destatis, 12-й согласованный прогноз (2009), вариант W2", "en": "Destatis 12th coordinated projection (2009), W2" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2009-11-18", "variant": "W2 (Variante 1-W2: upper bound of the \"medium\" population)", "values": { "2009": -30.0, "2010": 10.0, "2011": 40.0, "2012": 80.0, "2013": 100.0, "2014": 120.0, "2015": 140.0, "2016": 160.0, "2017": 170.0, "2018": 180.0, "2019": 190.0, "2020": 200.0, "2021": 200.0, "2022": 200.0, "2023": 200.0, "2024": 200.0, "2025": 200.0, "2026": 200.0, "2027": 200.0, "2028": 200.0, "2029": 200.0, "2030": 200.0, "2031": 200.0, "2032": 200.0, "2033": 200.0, "2034": 200.0, "2035": 200.0, "2036": 200.0, "2037": 200.0, "2038": 200.0, "2039": 200.0, "2040": 200.0 }, "src": "https://www.statistischebibliothek.de/mir/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/DEMonografie_derivate_00000598/5124202099005.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Destatis 2015", "en": "Destatis 2015" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Destatis, 13-й согласованный прогноз (2015), вариант W2", "en": "Destatis 13th coordinated projection (2015), W2" }, "year": 2013, "published": "2015-04-28", "variant": "W2 (Variante 2 \"Kontinuität bei stärkerer Zuwanderung\", G1-L1-W2)", "values": { "2014": 500.0, "2015": 500.0, "2016": 450.0, "2017": 400.0, "2018": 350.0, "2019": 300.0, "2020": 250.0, "2021": 200.0, "2022": 200.0, "2023": 200.0, "2024": 200.0, "2025": 200.0, "2026": 200.0, "2027": 200.0, "2028": 200.0, "2029": 200.0, "2030": 200.0, "2031": 200.0, "2032": 200.0, "2033": 200.0, "2034": 200.0, "2035": 200.0, "2036": 200.0, "2037": 200.0, "2038": 200.0, "2039": 200.0, "2040": 200.0 }, "src": "https://www.statistischebibliothek.de/mir/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/DEMonografie_derivate_00001535/5124202159005.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Destatis 2019", "en": "Destatis 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Destatis, 14-й согласованный прогноз (2019), вариант W2", "en": "Destatis 14th coordinated projection (2019), W2" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2019-06-27", "variant": "W2 (Variante 2, G2-L2-W2)", "values": { "2019": 364.0, "2020": 341.0, "2021": 319.0, "2022": 296.0, "2023": 274.0, "2024": 251.0, "2025": 229.0, "2026": 206.0, "2027": 206.0, "2028": 206.0, "2029": 206.0, "2030": 206.0, "2031": 206.0, "2032": 206.0, "2033": 206.0, "2034": 206.0, "2035": 206.0, "2036": 206.0, "2037": 206.0, "2038": 206.0, "2039": 206.0, "2040": 206.0 }, "src": "https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/bevoelkerung-deutschland-2060-5124202199014.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Destatis 2022", "en": "Destatis 2022" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Destatis, 15-й согласованный прогноз (2022), вариант W2", "en": "Destatis 15th coordinated projection (2022), W2" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2022-12-02", "variant": "W2 (Variante 2, G2-L2-W2)", "values": { "2022": 1300.0, "2023": 512.5, "2024": 406.2, "2025": 388.9, "2026": 371.5, "2027": 354.2, "2028": 336.8, "2029": 319.4, "2030": 302.1, "2031": 284.7, "2032": 267.4, "2033": 250.0, "2034": 250.0, "2035": 250.0, "2036": 250.0, "2037": 250.0, "2038": 250.0, "2039": 250.0, "2040": 250.0 }, "src": "https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/statistischer-bericht-bvb-deutschland-2070-5124202219005.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Destatis 2025", "en": "Destatis 2025" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Destatis, 16-й согласованный прогноз (2025), вариант W2", "en": "Destatis 16th coordinated projection (2025), W2" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2025-12-11", "variant": "W2 (Variante 2, G2-L2-W2)", "values": { "2025": 225.0, "2026": 230.0, "2027": 235.0, "2028": 240.0, "2029": 245.0, "2030": 250.0, "2031": 250.0, "2032": 250.0, "2033": 250.0, "2034": 250.0, "2035": 250.0, "2036": 250.0, "2037": 250.0, "2038": 250.0, "2039": 250.0, "2040": 250.0 }, "src": "https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsvorausberechnung/Publikationen/Downloads-Vorausberechnung/statistischer-bericht-bvb-deutschland-2070-5124202249005.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2030 ], "view": "c=DEU&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Destatis: official population projections do not claim to predict the future or to give a forecast for individual years ('Langfristige Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen sind keine Prognosen', press release Nr. 511 of 2 Dec 2022); constant assumed migration values are multi-year averages and actual balances will fluctuate strongly (13th update, sheet 'Annahmen'; 15th companion text).", "Which variant is 'main': in the 11th, 12th and 13th projections Destatis gave no single main variant - W1 and W2 were the lower and upper bounds of the 'mittlere' (medium) corridor (role medium_corridor_lower/upper). In the 14th, 15th and 16th, W2 (Variante 2, G2-L2-W2, 'moderate') is the central variant used in headlines (role main_moderate). The 2017 update had only one variant (2-A); the 2021 medium-term projection had two ('moderat', 'hoch').", "The first projection year is often informed by partial-year data (13th: 2014-2015 = 500k; 2017 update: 2016 = 750k; 15th: 2022 = 1.1/1.3/1.5 million after the Ukraine inflow; 16th, published 11 Dec 2025: 2025 = 150/225/300k). Comparisons for those years mostly reflect information already available.", "Base-year values that appear in the result tables (actual figures) are excluded from projection 'values'.", "The 14th projection is only available as PDF with whole thousands; the long-term W1 value 110.5k therefore prints as 110/111.", "Registration-based flows may miss unregistered departures: the 2022 census found 1.4 million fewer inhabitants than the register-based population update (about 71% of the gap among non-Germans; Destatis press release Nr. 44 of 25 June 2024, https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/Zensus2022-Pressemitteilungen/PM_zensus2022_44.html). The migration flow series was not revised; treat cumulative net migration with caution.", "Large shocks: 2015 (+1 139 402, refugee inflow) and 2022 (+1 462 089, mainly Ukraine) were far above every assumption made before them; 2008-2009 were negative partly because of register clean-ups.", "Older vintages (10th and earlier) were not collected." ] }, { "id": "usa_migration_cbo", "iso3": "USA", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "США: в 2021–2025 годах миграция добавила 10,6 млн, а прогноз марта 2021 года ждал 3,85 млн", "en": "US: the CBO, Mar 2021 projection expected net migration of +3.85M for 2021–2025; the outcome was +10.6M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: чистая иммиграция — прогнозы CBO и оценки CBO", "en": "US: net immigration — CBO projections vs CBO estimates" }, "short": { "ru": "США · иммиграция (CBO)", "en": "US · immigration (CBO)" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов бюджетного управления Конгресса против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл: сальдо миграции оказалось выше прогноза в 4 из 5. Сильнее всего недооценил миграцию прогноз марта 2021 года: за 2021–2025 ждали +3,85 млн, вышло +10,6 млн. В другую сторону ошибся прогноз января 2024 года: за 2024–2025 ждали +5,9 млн, вышло +2,68 млн. Две официальные оценки расходятся: за 2022–2023 CBO насчитывает +6,63 млн (календарные годы), Бюро переписи — +3,94 млн (годы июль–июнь). Первые годы прогноза часто совпадают с тогдашней предварительной оценкой; факт последних лет ещё будут уточнять.", "en": "5 CBO projections against the facts over the years each has covered: net migration was higher than expected in 4 of 5. The largest under-projection of migration: CBO, Mar 2021 expected +3.85M for 2021–2025, the outcome was +10.6M. The other way: CBO, Jan 2024 expected +5.9M for 2024–2025, the outcome was +2.68M. The two official estimates disagree: for 2022–2023 CBO counts +6.63M (calendar years), the Census Bureau +3.94M (July-June years). The first projected years often equal the then provisional estimate; recent facts will be revised again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка CBO (январь 2026), календарные годы", "en": "CBO estimate (January 2026), calendar years" }, "values": { "2000": 1249.0, "2001": 1371.0, "2002": 1306.0, "2003": 1153.0, "2004": 1327.0, "2005": 1884.0, "2006": 1688.0, "2007": 889.0, "2008": 175.0, "2009": 899.0, "2010": 803.0, "2011": 729.0, "2012": 654.0, "2013": 814.0, "2014": 1604.0, "2015": 1504.0, "2016": 897.0, "2017": 1074.0, "2018": 616.0, "2019": 282.0, "2020": 712.0, "2021": 1283.0, "2022": 3132.0, "2023": 3501.0, "2024": 2273.0, "2025": 408.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-01/61879-Data.xlsx", "definition": "CBO net immigration: people who migrate to the United States minus people who leave, calendar year, for the Social Security area population (50 states, DC, territories, federal employees and service members abroad and dependants, US citizens abroad). Includes lawful permanent residents and those eligible to become LPRs (LPR+), INA nonimmigrants and 'other foreign nationals' (entered illegally, overstayed, or paroled/awaiting immigration court)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "CBO, июнь 2018", "en": "CBO, Jun 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "CBO, июнь 2018 (долгосрочный бюджетный прогноз 2018)", "en": "CBO, June 2018 (2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook)" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-06-26", "variant": null, "values": { "2018": 1061.006, "2019": 1056.997, "2020": 1055.006, "2021": 1062.004, "2022": 1072.006, "2023": 1081.995, "2024": 1092.002, "2025": 1102.006, "2026": 1113.0, "2027": 1119.994, "2028": 1131.005, "2029": 1137.8, "2030": 1144.609, "2031": 1151.462, "2032": 1158.391, "2033": 1165.339, "2034": 1172.343, "2035": 1179.368, "2036": 1186.467, "2037": 1193.554, "2038": 1200.723, "2039": 1207.921, "2040": 1215.18, "2041": 1222.47, "2042": 1229.806, "2043": 1237.18, "2044": 1244.584, "2045": 1252.056, "2046": 1259.587, "2047": 1267.125, "2048": 1274.737, "2049": 1282.401, "2050": 1290.086, "2051": 1297.829, "2052": 1305.602, "2053": 1313.459, "2054": 1321.331, "2055": 1329.255, "2056": 1337.246, "2057": 1345.252, "2058": 1353.323, "2059": 1361.447, "2060": 1369.6 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2018-06/53919-projectionsunderlyingsocialsecurityestimates.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, июнь 2019", "en": "CBO, Jun 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "CBO, июнь 2019 (долгосрочный бюджетный прогноз 2019)", "en": "CBO, June 2019 (2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook)" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-06-25", "variant": null, "values": { "2019": 920.47, "2020": 971.377, "2021": 1005.596, "2022": 1037.407, "2023": 1069.281, "2024": 1109.947, "2025": 1110.935, "2026": 1108.215, "2027": 1108.522, "2028": 1112.918, "2029": 1117.325, "2030": 1121.77, "2031": 1126.196, "2032": 1129.339, "2033": 1132.048, "2034": 1134.752, "2035": 1137.48, "2036": 1140.228, "2037": 1142.971, "2038": 1145.739, "2039": 1148.516, "2040": 1153.549, "2041": 1158.472, "2042": 1163.23, "2043": 1167.891, "2044": 1172.419, "2045": 1176.856, "2046": 1181.202, "2047": 1185.495, "2048": 1189.766, "2049": 1193.988, "2050": 1198.223, "2051": 1202.485, "2052": 1206.766, "2053": 1211.107, "2054": 1215.519, "2055": 1220.029, "2056": 1224.619, "2057": 1229.318, "2058": 1234.091, "2059": 1238.978, "2060": 1243.939 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-06/55331-projectionsunderlyingSSestimates.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, март 2021", "en": "CBO, Mar 2021" }, "label_full": { "ru": "CBO, март 2021 (долгосрочный бюджетный прогноз 2021)", "en": "CBO, March 2021 (2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook)" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-03-04", "variant": null, "values": { "2021": 517.015, "2022": 654.323, "2023": 815.449, "2024": 920.075, "2025": 939.019, "2026": 957.96, "2027": 976.901, "2028": 995.856, "2029": 1014.795, "2030": 1033.726, "2031": 1052.678, "2032": 1055.152, "2033": 1057.628, "2034": 1060.119, "2035": 1062.619, "2036": 1065.134, "2037": 1067.655, "2038": 1070.195, "2039": 1072.749, "2040": 1075.314, "2041": 1077.897, "2042": 1080.612, "2043": 1083.217, "2044": 1085.691, "2045": 1088.065, "2046": 1090.337, "2047": 1092.523, "2048": 1094.632, "2049": 1096.681, "2050": 1098.675, "2051": 1100.653, "2052": 1102.608, "2053": 1104.572, "2054": 1106.569, "2055": 1108.561, "2056": 1110.636, "2057": 1112.74, "2058": 1114.929, "2059": 1117.173, "2060": 1119.527 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-03/57059-2021-03-Demographic-Projections.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, янв. 2023", "en": "CBO, Jan 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "CBO, январь 2023 («Демографический прогноз 2023–2053»)", "en": "CBO, January 2023 (The Demographic Outlook: 2023 to 2053)" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-01-24", "variant": null, "values": { "2023": 1386.474, "2024": 1212.385, "2025": 1067.617, "2026": 1069.988, "2027": 1072.371, "2028": 1074.765, "2029": 1077.171, "2030": 1079.59, "2031": 1082.02, "2032": 1084.463, "2033": 1086.918, "2034": 1089.385, "2035": 1091.864, "2036": 1094.356, "2037": 1096.861, "2038": 1099.377, "2039": 1101.907, "2040": 1104.449, "2041": 1107.004, "2042": 1109.571, "2043": 1112.152, "2044": 1114.514, "2045": 1116.758, "2046": 1118.888, "2047": 1120.912, "2048": 1122.84, "2049": 1124.682, "2050": 1126.451, "2051": 1128.156, "2052": 1129.813, "2053": 1131.436 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-01/58612-Data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, янв. 2024", "en": "CBO, Jan 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "CBO, январь 2024 («Демографический прогноз 2024–2054»)", "en": "CBO, January 2024 (The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054)" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-01-18", "variant": null, "values": { "2024": 3298.873, "2025": 2601.232, "2026": 1803.602, "2027": 1105.985, "2028": 1108.379, "2029": 1110.786, "2030": 1113.204, "2031": 1115.635, "2032": 1118.077, "2033": 1120.532, "2034": 1122.999, "2035": 1125.479, "2036": 1127.971, "2037": 1130.475, "2038": 1132.992, "2039": 1135.521, "2040": 1138.063, "2041": 1140.618, "2042": 1143.186, "2043": 1145.766, "2044": 1148.359, "2045": 1150.476, "2046": 1152.484, "2047": 1154.391, "2048": 1156.205, "2049": 1157.936, "2050": 1159.595, "2051": 1161.194, "2052": 1162.744, "2053": 1164.26, "2054": 1165.755 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-01/59697-Data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, сент. 2025", "en": "CBO, Sep 2025" }, "label_full": { "ru": "CBO, сентябрь 2025 (обновление демографического прогноза 2025–2055)", "en": "CBO, September 2025 (An Update to the Demographic Outlook, 2025 to 2055)" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-09-10", "variant": null, "values": { "2025": 408.0, "2026": 605.0, "2027": 698.0, "2028": 821.0, "2029": 927.0, "2030": 1037.0, "2031": 1035.0, "2032": 1037.0, "2033": 1054.0, "2034": 1086.0, "2035": 1127.0, "2036": 1129.0, "2037": 1132.0, "2038": 1135.0, "2039": 1137.0, "2040": 1140.0, "2041": 1142.0, "2042": 1145.0, "2043": 1148.0, "2044": 1150.0, "2045": 1153.0, "2046": 1153.0, "2047": 1154.0, "2048": 1154.0, "2049": 1155.0, "2050": 1155.0, "2051": 1155.0, "2052": 1155.0, "2053": 1155.0, "2054": 1156.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-09/61390-demographic-update-data.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2010, 2030 ], "view": "c=USA&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "There is no single 'actual' US net immigration figure. CBO and the Census Bureau measure different things over different periods: CBO counts net immigration into the Social Security area population (includes territories and Americans abroad) per calendar year and estimates the 'other foreign nationals' flow from border-encounter, parole and court data; the Census Bureau's NIM is for the resident population of the 50 states + DC per July-June year and is built mainly from the American Community Survey plus administrative adjustments.", "The two official estimates disagree by large amounts: for 2022-2023 CBO estimates 3.13 and 3.50 million (calendar years) while Census Vintage 2025 estimates 1.67 and 2.26 million (July-June years). CBO itself notes (January 2026 report, Appendix A) that it estimates 8.6 million net immigrants from the start of 2020 to the end of 2023 versus the Census Bureau's 4.4 million from April 2020 to July 2023. In 2025 the order reverses: CBO 0.41 million (calendar 2025) vs Census 1.26 million (July 2024-June 2025).", "Calendar-year (CBO) and July-June (Census) values must not be compared year-for-year without noting the six-month shift; a July-June year straddles two calendar years.", "Both agencies revise their own history: CBO's estimate for 2019 went from 862 thousand (Jan 2023) to 415 (Jan 2024) to 282 (Jan 2026); Census Vintage 2024 -> 2025 lowered 2022-2024 NIM by 21-52 thousand per year. A 'forecast error' depends on which estimate vintage is treated as the outcome.", "Forecast misses run in both directions: Census 2017 main series projected ~1.0 million a year, too high for 2018-2021 (Vintage 2020/2025 estimates 0.38-0.72 million) and far too low for 2022-2025 (1.26-2.73 million); CBO's 2018-2021 vintages projected 0.6-1.1 million a year for 2022-2024 versus CBO's own later estimates of 2.3-3.5 million; CBO's January 2025 vintage projected 2.01 million for 2025 versus 0.41 million estimated a year later.", "Years in 'values' start with the first period not yet finished at publication (CBO: publication year; Census: first July-June period ending after the release date). Mid-year vintages (CBO June 2018, June 2019, September 2020, July 2022, September 2025) already knew part of their first year. Earlier years from the same file are in 'values_before_publication'.", "CBO publication pages and files (cbo.gov) are protected by bot-detection and could not be fetched directly; byte copies of the official CBO files were taken from the Internet Archive (URLs in 'retrieved_via'), and the 2025-2026 values were cross-checked against CBO's official GitHub repository US-CBO/cbo-data. Values are truncated at 2060 (CBO files run to 2093-2098).", "Census projection series are not forecasts of the estimates program: they start from an earlier estimates vintage (e.g. the 2023 series from Vintage 2022) and were not updated after the Vintage 2024 methodology change. Census has published no national projections since November 2023 (as checked 2026-10-04)." ] }, { "id": "usa_migration_census", "iso3": "USA", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "США: в 2013–2025 годах миграция добавила 14,94 млн, а прогноз 2012 года ждал 11,52 млн", "en": "US: the Census 2012 projection expected net migration of +11.52M for 2013–2025; the outcome was +14.94M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: чистая международная миграция — прогнозы Бюро переписи и его же оценки", "en": "US: net international migration — Census Bureau projections vs its estimates" }, "short": { "ru": "США · миграция (Census)", "en": "US · migration (Census)" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов Бюро переписи против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл: сальдо миграции оказалось выше прогноза в 3 из 5. Сильнее всего недооценил миграцию прогноз 2012 года: за 2013–2025 ждали +11,52 млн, вышло +14,94 млн. В другую сторону ошибся прогноз 2008 года: за 2011–2025 ждали +21,52 млн, вышло +16,6 млн. Первые годы прогноза часто совпадают с тогдашней предварительной оценкой; факт последних лет ещё будут уточнять.", "en": "5 Census Bureau projections against the facts over the years each has covered: net migration was higher than expected in 3 of 5. The largest under-projection of migration: Census 2012 expected +11.52M for 2013–2025, the outcome was +14.94M. The other way: Census 2008 expected +21.52M for 2011–2025, the outcome was +16.6M. The first projected years often equal the then provisional estimate; recent facts will be revised again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценки Бюро переписи (годы июль–июнь; 2011–2020 — Vintage 2020, с 2021 — Vintage 2025)", "en": "Census Bureau estimates (July-June years; 2011-2020 Vintage 2020, from 2021 Vintage 2025)" }, "values": { "2011": 795.295, "2012": 858.736, "2013": 849.728, "2014": 945.635, "2015": 1060.115, "2016": 1065.017, "2017": 948.392, "2018": 719.871, "2019": 568.639, "2020": 477.029, "2021": 376.026, "2022": 1672.112, "2023": 2264.137, "2024": 2734.468, "2025": 1262.202 }, "src": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/state/totals/NST-EST2025-ALLDATA.csv", "definition": "Net international migration (NIM) in the Census Bureau Population Estimates Program: non-US-born immigration minus non-US-born emigration, plus net migration of the US-born, net migration between the US and Puerto Rico and net overseas movement of the Armed Forces. Resident population of the 50 states and DC. Year t = July 1 of t-1 to June 30 of t." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Census 2008", "en": "Census 2008" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Бюро переписи США, прогноз 2008", "en": "US Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2008-08-14", "variant": null, "values": { "2009": 1318.823, "2010": 1338.37, "2011": 1299.753, "2012": 1319.079, "2013": 1338.343, "2014": 1357.638, "2015": 1376.867, "2016": 1396.088, "2017": 1415.292, "2018": 1434.452, "2019": 1453.63, "2020": 1472.777, "2021": 1491.943, "2022": 1511.092, "2023": 1530.231, "2024": 1549.403, "2025": 1568.51, "2026": 1587.656, "2027": 1606.748, "2028": 1625.881, "2029": 1645.011, "2030": 1664.183, "2031": 1683.268, "2032": 1702.405, "2033": 1721.545, "2034": 1740.695, "2035": 1759.827, "2036": 1778.907, "2037": 1798.046, "2038": 1817.202, "2039": 1836.308, "2040": 1855.45, "2041": 1874.562, "2042": 1893.704, "2043": 1912.798, "2044": 1931.968, "2045": 1951.077, "2046": 1970.214, "2047": 1989.33, "2048": 2008.445, "2049": 2027.607, "2050": 2046.69 }, "src": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/datasets/2008/2008-popproj/np2008_d4.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "Census 2012", "en": "Census 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Бюро переписи США, прогноз 2012 (средний вариант)", "en": "US Census Bureau, 2012 National Projections (middle series)" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2012-12-12", "variant": null, "values": { "2013": 747.924, "2014": 770.972, "2015": 794.015, "2016": 817.053, "2017": 840.087, "2018": 863.116, "2019": 886.157, "2020": 909.188, "2021": 932.21, "2022": 955.261, "2023": 978.304, "2024": 1001.3, "2025": 1024.351, "2026": 1047.361, "2027": 1070.356, "2028": 1093.403, "2029": 1116.44, "2030": 1139.465, "2031": 1143.185, "2032": 1146.255, "2033": 1149.47, "2034": 1152.783, "2035": 1156.201, "2036": 1159.74, "2037": 1163.306, "2038": 1166.968, "2039": 1170.681, "2040": 1174.413, "2041": 1178.246, "2042": 1181.823, "2043": 1185.184, "2044": 1188.429, "2045": 1191.435, "2046": 1194.23, "2047": 1196.904, "2048": 1199.388, "2049": 1201.71, "2050": 1203.883, "2051": 1205.888, "2052": 1207.637, "2053": 1209.234, "2054": 1210.626, "2055": 1211.792, "2056": 1212.763, "2057": 1213.577, "2058": 1214.168, "2059": 1214.595, "2060": 1214.82 }, "src": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/datasets/2012/2012-popproj/np2012_d4.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "Census 2014", "en": "Census 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Бюро переписи США, прогноз 2014", "en": "US Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-12", "variant": null, "values": { "2015": 1241.179, "2016": 1249.652, "2017": 1256.228, "2018": 1261.951, "2019": 1266.58, "2020": 1270.932, "2021": 1274.974, "2022": 1282.116, "2023": 1290.618, "2024": 1300.598, "2025": 1310.284, "2026": 1319.733, "2027": 1328.929, "2028": 1337.894, "2029": 1346.572, "2030": 1355.008, "2031": 1363.19, "2032": 1371.152, "2033": 1378.859, "2034": 1386.359, "2035": 1393.626, "2036": 1400.672, "2037": 1407.452, "2038": 1414.01, "2039": 1420.339, "2040": 1426.441, "2041": 1432.267, "2042": 1437.856, "2043": 1443.198, "2044": 1448.299, "2045": 1453.121, "2046": 1457.696, "2047": 1462.013, "2048": 1466.081, "2049": 1469.88, "2050": 1473.424, "2051": 1476.805, "2052": 1479.926, "2053": 1482.762, "2054": 1485.34, "2055": 1487.644, "2056": 1489.682, "2057": 1491.435, "2058": 1492.916, "2059": 1494.122, "2060": 1495.055 }, "src": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/datasets/2014/2014-popproj/np2014_d4.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "Census 2017", "en": "Census 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Бюро переписи США, прогноз 2017 (основной вариант)", "en": "US Census Bureau, 2017 National Projections (main series)" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-03-13", "variant": null, "values": { "2018": 1001.528, "2019": 1005.801, "2020": 1009.861, "2021": 1013.839, "2022": 1017.445, "2023": 1021.097, "2024": 1024.775, "2025": 1029.924, "2026": 1041.509, "2027": 1047.831, "2028": 1053.699, "2029": 1059.134, "2030": 1064.146, "2031": 1068.776, "2032": 1073.062, "2033": 1077.135, "2034": 1080.985, "2035": 1084.592, "2036": 1087.957, "2037": 1091.035, "2038": 1093.813, "2039": 1096.298, "2040": 1098.489, "2041": 1100.426, "2042": 1102.103, "2043": 1103.557, "2044": 1104.817, "2045": 1105.898, "2046": 1106.875, "2047": 1107.722, "2048": 1108.488, "2049": 1109.126, "2050": 1109.593, "2051": 1109.904, "2052": 1110.202, "2053": 1110.538, "2054": 1110.981, "2055": 1111.581, "2056": 1112.432, "2057": 1113.496, "2058": 1114.748, "2059": 1116.146, "2060": 1117.651 }, "src": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/datasets/2017/2017-popproj/np2017_d4.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "Census 2023", "en": "Census 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Бюро переписи США, прогноз 2023 (основной вариант)", "en": "US Census Bureau, 2023 National Projections (main series)" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-11-09", "variant": null, "values": { "2024": 855.072, "2025": 857.704, "2026": 864.765, "2027": 870.593, "2028": 874.21, "2029": 877.563, "2030": 878.684, "2031": 876.556, "2032": 870.256, "2033": 876.378, "2034": 882.251, "2035": 887.842, "2036": 893.156, "2037": 898.196, "2038": 903.017, "2039": 907.659, "2040": 912.156, "2041": 915.545, "2042": 918.835, "2043": 922.069, "2044": 925.181, "2045": 928.11, "2046": 930.865, "2047": 933.422, "2048": 935.9, "2049": 938.213, "2050": 940.353, "2051": 942.366, "2052": 944.218, "2053": 945.935, "2054": 947.513, "2055": 949.03, "2056": 950.522, "2057": 952.011, "2058": 953.476, "2059": 954.852, "2060": 956.143 }, "src": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/datasets/2023/2023-popproj/np2023_d4_mid.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 2008, 2030 ], "view": "c=USA&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "There is no single 'actual' US net immigration figure. CBO and the Census Bureau measure different things over different periods: CBO counts net immigration into the Social Security area population (includes territories and Americans abroad) per calendar year and estimates the 'other foreign nationals' flow from border-encounter, parole and court data; the Census Bureau's NIM is for the resident population of the 50 states + DC per July-June year and is built mainly from the American Community Survey plus administrative adjustments.", "The two official estimates disagree by large amounts: for 2022-2023 CBO estimates 3.13 and 3.50 million (calendar years) while Census Vintage 2025 estimates 1.67 and 2.26 million (July-June years). CBO itself notes (January 2026 report, Appendix A) that it estimates 8.6 million net immigrants from the start of 2020 to the end of 2023 versus the Census Bureau's 4.4 million from April 2020 to July 2023. In 2025 the order reverses: CBO 0.41 million (calendar 2025) vs Census 1.26 million (July 2024-June 2025).", "Calendar-year (CBO) and July-June (Census) values must not be compared year-for-year without noting the six-month shift; a July-June year straddles two calendar years.", "Both agencies revise their own history: CBO's estimate for 2019 went from 862 thousand (Jan 2023) to 415 (Jan 2024) to 282 (Jan 2026); Census Vintage 2024 -> 2025 lowered 2022-2024 NIM by 21-52 thousand per year. A 'forecast error' depends on which estimate vintage is treated as the outcome.", "Forecast misses run in both directions: Census 2017 main series projected ~1.0 million a year, too high for 2018-2021 (Vintage 2020/2025 estimates 0.38-0.72 million) and far too low for 2022-2025 (1.26-2.73 million); CBO's 2018-2021 vintages projected 0.6-1.1 million a year for 2022-2024 versus CBO's own later estimates of 2.3-3.5 million; CBO's January 2025 vintage projected 2.01 million for 2025 versus 0.41 million estimated a year later.", "Years in 'values' start with the first period not yet finished at publication (CBO: publication year; Census: first July-June period ending after the release date). Mid-year vintages (CBO June 2018, June 2019, September 2020, July 2022, September 2025) already knew part of their first year. Earlier years from the same file are in 'values_before_publication'.", "CBO publication pages and files (cbo.gov) are protected by bot-detection and could not be fetched directly; byte copies of the official CBO files were taken from the Internet Archive (URLs in 'retrieved_via'), and the 2025-2026 values were cross-checked against CBO's official GitHub repository US-CBO/cbo-data. Values are truncated at 2060 (CBO files run to 2093-2098).", "Census projection series are not forecasts of the estimates program: they start from an earlier estimates vintage (e.g. the 2023 series from Vintage 2022) and were not updated after the Vintage 2024 methodology change. Census has published no national projections since November 2023 (as checked 2026-10-04)." ] }, { "id": "can_population_growth", "iso3": "CAN", "section": "migration", "metric": "population_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Канада: в 2020–2026 годах население выросло на 4,18 млн, а прогноз 2019 года ждал 2,85 млн", "en": "Canada: the StatCan 2019 projection expected population growth of +2.85M for 2020–2026; the outcome was +4.18M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Канада: прирост населения — прогнозы Статистики Канады и факт", "en": "Canada: population growth — Statistics Canada projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Канада · прирост", "en": "Canada · growth" }, "note": { "ru": "4 прогноза Статистики Канады (средний сценарий) против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл: население выросло сильнее, чем ждали, в 4 из 4. Сильнее всего недооценил прирост населения прогноз 2019 года: за 2020–2026 ждали +2,85 млн, вышло +4,18 млн. Первые годы прогноза часто совпадают с тогдашней предварительной оценкой; факт последних лет ещё будут уточнять.", "en": "4 Statistics Canada projections (medium scenario M1) against the facts over the years each has covered: the population grew more than expected in 4 of 4. The largest under-projection of population growth: StatCan 2019 expected +2.85M for 2020–2026, the outcome was +4.18M. The first projected years often equal the then provisional estimate; recent facts will be revised again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (Статистика Канады, июль–июнь)", "en": "Actual (Statistics Canada, July-June)" }, "values": { "2001": 335.125, "2002": 338.344, "2003": 283.262, "2004": 296.346, "2005": 303.925, "2006": 328.461, "2007": 317.693, "2008": 358.412, "2009": 382.771, "2010": 375.833, "2011": 333.319, "2012": 374.174, "2013": 367.597, "2014": 353.074, "2015": 270.432, "2016": 406.305, "2017": 434.272, "2018": 527.545, "2019": 545.875, "2020": 410.143, "2021": 211.226, "2022": 705.764, "2023": 1077.076, "2024": 1139.889, "2025": 446.389, "2026": 189.425 }, "src": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901", "definition": "Population on July 1 of year t minus population on July 1 of year t-1, from table 17-10-0009-01." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "StatCan 2019", "en": "StatCan 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Статистика Канады, прогноз 2018–2068, сценарий M1 (средний рост)", "en": "Statistics Canada projections 2018 to 2068, M1 medium-growth" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-09-17", "variant": null, "values": { "2020": 406.9, "2021": 410.9, "2022": 409.7, "2023": 408.3, "2024": 406.5, "2025": 404.4, "2026": 401.7, "2027": 398.7, "2028": 395.3, "2029": 391.5, "2030": 387.4, "2031": 382.9, "2032": 378.3, "2033": 373.5, "2034": 368.7, "2035": 364.0, "2036": 359.2, "2037": 354.7, "2038": 350.1, "2039": 345.8, "2040": 341.5, "2041": 337.1, "2042": 333.0, "2043": 328.7 }, "src": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710005701" }, { "label": { "ru": "StatCan 2022", "en": "StatCan 2022" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Статистика Канады, прогноз 2021–2068, сценарий M1 (средний рост)", "en": "Statistics Canada projections 2021 to 2068, M1 medium-growth" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-08-22", "variant": null, "values": { "2023": 544.0, "2024": 527.1, "2025": 511.6, "2026": 499.9, "2027": 488.1, "2028": 475.6, "2029": 463.0, "2030": 449.5, "2031": 435.5, "2032": 421.0, "2033": 411.4, "2034": 401.2, "2035": 391.2, "2036": 381.2, "2037": 371.9, "2038": 363.6, "2039": 356.2, "2040": 350.2, "2041": 345.8, "2042": 343.6, "2043": 343.4, "2044": 340.4, "2045": 337.6, "2046": 335.2, "2047": 332.9, "2048": 330.8, "2049": 329.1, "2050": 327.8 }, "src": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710005701" }, { "label": { "ru": "StatCan 2024", "en": "StatCan 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Статистика Канады, прогноз 2023–2073, сценарий M1 (средний рост)", "en": "Statistics Canada projections 2023 to 2073, M1 medium-growth" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-06-24", "variant": null, "values": { "2024": 992.3, "2025": 281.9, "2026": 283.0, "2027": 273.2, "2028": 507.0, "2029": 503.1, "2030": 499.1, "2031": 495.5, "2032": 492.3, "2033": 489.4, "2034": 485.1, "2035": 479.1, "2036": 473.6, "2037": 468.5, "2038": 464.0, "2039": 459.5, "2040": 455.3, "2041": 451.0, "2042": 447.0, "2043": 442.6, "2044": 437.7, "2045": 432.2, "2046": 426.4, "2047": 419.7, "2048": 412.1, "2049": 413.1, "2050": 412.1 }, "src": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710005701" }, { "label": { "ru": "StatCan 2025", "en": "StatCan 2025" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Статистика Канады, прогноз 2024–2074, сценарий M1 (средний рост)", "en": "Statistics Canada projections 2024 to 2074, M1 medium-growth" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-01-21", "variant": null, "values": { "2025": 135.1, "2026": -83.9, "2027": 110.0, "2028": 334.9, "2029": 331.7, "2030": 330.0, "2031": 329.1, "2032": 329.3, "2033": 330.3, "2034": 330.6, "2035": 329.8, "2036": 330.1, "2037": 331.2, "2038": 333.4, "2039": 336.2, "2040": 339.6, "2041": 343.3, "2042": 347.7, "2043": 352.0, "2044": 356.3, "2045": 360.3, "2046": 364.4, "2047": 367.8, "2048": 370.7, "2049": 372.8, "2050": 372.4 }, "src": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710005701" }, { "label": { "ru": "StatCan 2026", "en": "StatCan 2026" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Статистика Канады, прогноз 2025–2075, сценарий M1 (средний рост)", "en": "Statistics Canada projections 2025 to 2075, M1 medium-growth" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-01-27", "variant": null, "values": { "2026": 3.8, "2027": 36.0, "2028": 186.4, "2029": 337.8, "2030": 332.8, "2031": 326.6, "2032": 320.8, "2033": 315.5, "2034": 310.8, "2035": 306.8, "2036": 303.5, "2037": 301.2, "2038": 299.4, "2039": 298.5, "2040": 298.3, "2041": 298.7, "2042": 299.4, "2043": 300.8, "2044": 302.2, "2045": 303.9, "2046": 305.8, "2047": 307.9, "2048": 309.9, "2049": 312.2, "2050": 314.4 }, "src": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710005701" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=CAN&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Projection editions: 2018-2068 (published 2019-09-17), 2021-2068 (2022-08-22), 2023-2073 (2024-06-24), 2024-2074 (2025-01-21), 2025-2075 (2026-01-27). Scenario M1 is StatCan's medium-growth reference scenario; M2-M6 differ from M1 only in interprovincial migration and are virtually identical for Canada as a whole. LG/HG are the low- and high-growth scenarios (given as a range).", "StatCan overwrites tables 17-10-0057-01 and 17-10-0058-01 with each new edition. Earlier editions were recovered from Internet Archive copies of StatCan's own pages and CSV files (URLs in 'retrieved_via'); every captured copy of the same edition agrees exactly. Component counts (immigrants, NPR) were recovered for the 2021 and 2025 editions (all components) and the 2023 edition (immigrants only); for the 2018 and 2024 editions only published assumptions (rates/shares from the technical reports) are available.", "Years: population is on July 1; flows are July 1-June 30 periods keyed by the end year (key 2026 = StatCan period 2025/2026). Population growth for projections and actuals is computed as the difference of July 1 values; net international migration = immigrants - net emigration + net non-permanent residents.", "The 'actual' series are themselves revised: e.g. July 1, 2024 population 41,288.6 thousand when the 2024 edition was built vs 41,162.6 now; NPR counts were revised down in 2026. Preliminary 2025/2026 components will change.", "Misses run in both directions. Too high: the 2018 edition's M1 growth for 2020/2021 was +410.9k vs +211.2k actual (pandemic), so its July 1, 2021 population was 44.7k above the estimate; permanent immigration came in below recent assumptions (2024/2025: 435.6k actual vs 492.5k in the 2023 edition; 2025/2026: 368.2k preliminary vs 414.3k in the 2025 edition); the 2021 edition's net NPR for 2024/2025 (+61.2k) and 2025/2026 (+47.7k) exceeded the actual +34.3k and -154.6k. Too low: temporary residents surged (net NPR +650.2k in 2022/2023 and +703.2k in 2023/2024 vs +103.1k and +78.5k in the 2021 edition), so the 2018 and 2021 M1 paths ended 1.1-1.7 million below the July 1, 2024-2025 estimates and the actual population exceeded even their high-growth scenarios from 2023 on. After the federal NPR caps the 2024 and 2025 editions projected stagnation (-83.9k and +3.8k for 2025/2026), but the population grew by +189.4k (preliminary) because the net NPR outflow (-154.6k) was smaller than assumed (-376.4k in the 2025 edition); the July 1, 2026 estimate (41,798.4k) is near the 2024 edition's high-growth scenario (41,814.4k).", "Values in 'values' start with the first July 1 (or July-June period) that had not yet ended at publication; earlier projected years of the same edition are in 'values_before_publication'. Values are truncated at 2050." ] }, { "id": "aus_migration_cfp", "iso3": "AUS", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Австралия: в 2020–2025 годах миграция добавила 1,58 млн, а прогноз 2020 года ждал 566 тыс.", "en": "Australia: the Population Statement 2020 projection expected net migration of +566k for 2020–2025; the outcome was +1.58M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Австралия: чистая миграция — прогнозы Центра по населению и факт", "en": "Australia: net overseas migration — Centre for Population projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Австралия · миграция (CfP)", "en": "Australia · migration (CfP)" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов Центра по населению правительства Австралии против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 4 из 5. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2020 года: за 2020–2025 ждали +566 тыс., вышло +1,58 млн. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "5 projections of the Australian Government Centre for Population against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 4 of 5. The largest miss: Population Statement 2020 expected +566k for 2020–2025; the outcome was +1.58M. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (ABS, финансовые годы июль–июнь)", "en": "Actual (ABS, financial years July–June)" }, "values": { "1982": 128.1, "1983": 73.3, "1984": 49.1, "1985": 73.8, "1986": 100.5, "1987": 125.8, "1988": 149.4, "1989": 157.5, "1990": 124.7, "1991": 86.5, "1992": 68.6, "1993": 30.1, "1994": 46.6, "1995": 80.2, "1996": 104.0, "1997": 87.2, "1998": 79.1, "1999": 96.5, "2000": 107.2, "2001": 135.7, "2002": 110.6, "2003": 116.5, "2004": 100.0, "2005": 123.8, "2006": 146.7, "2007": 232.7, "2008": 277.4, "2009": 299.8, "2010": 196.1, "2011": 180.4, "2012": 231.9, "2013": 230.3, "2014": 187.8, "2015": 184.1, "2016": 206.3, "2017": 263.4, "2018": 238.2, "2019": 241.3, "2020": 192.7, "2021": -85.0, "2022": 207.9, "2023": 538.3, "2024": 429.2, "2025": 301.5 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2026/310101.xlsx", "definition": "ABS net overseas migration: net gain or loss of population through immigration to and emigration from Australia; from Sep quarter 2006 measured with the 12/16-month rule (counted if in/out of Australia for 12 of the following 16 months); before that a 12/12-month concept with a category-jumping / migration adjustment." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Population Statement 2020", "en": "Population Statement 2020" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Population Statement 2020 (Центр по вопросам населения, Минфин Австралии)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Centre for Population, 2020 Population Statement" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2020-12-04", "variant": "central scenario", "values": { "2020": 154.1, "2021": -71.6, "2022": -21.6, "2023": 95.9, "2024": 201.1, "2025": 207.8, "2026": 214.8, "2027": 222.0, "2028": 229.4, "2029": 235.0, "2030": 235.0, "2031": 235.0 }, "src": "https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-09/population_statement_2020_national_scenarios.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Population Statement 2021", "en": "Population Statement 2021" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Population Statement 2021 (Центр по вопросам населения, Минфин Австралии)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Centre for Population, 2021 Population Statement" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2021-12-20", "variant": "projections (central)", "values": { "2021": -100.5, "2022": -40.9, "2023": 180.1, "2024": 212.6, "2025": 235.0, "2026": 235.0, "2027": 235.0, "2028": 235.0, "2029": 235.0, "2030": 235.0, "2031": 235.0, "2032": 235.0 }, "src": "https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2021-12/population_statement_data_download_national.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Population Statement 2022", "en": "Population Statement 2022" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Population Statement 2022 (Центр по вопросам населения, Минфин Австралии)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Centre for Population, 2022 Population Statement" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2023-01-06", "variant": "projections (central)", "values": { "2022": 150.4, "2023": 235.0, "2024": 235.0, "2025": 235.0, "2026": 235.0, "2027": 235.0, "2028": 235.0, "2029": 235.0, "2030": 235.0, "2031": 235.0, "2032": 235.0, "2033": 235.0 }, "src": "https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2023-01/population_statement_data_download_national.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Population Statement 2023", "en": "Population Statement 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Population Statement 2023 (Центр по вопросам населения, Минфин Австралии)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Centre for Population, 2023 Population Statement" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2023-12-22", "variant": "projections (central)", "values": { "2023": 507.6, "2024": 377.4, "2025": 248.0, "2026": 257.1, "2027": 234.7, "2028": 234.8, "2029": 234.8, "2030": 234.9, "2031": 234.9, "2032": 235.0, "2033": 235.0, "2034": 235.0 }, "src": "https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2023-12/2023-population-statement-data-national.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Population Statement 2024", "en": "Population Statement 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Population Statement 2024 (Центр по вопросам населения, Минфин Австралии)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Centre for Population, 2024 Population Statement" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2024-12-20", "variant": "projections (central)", "values": { "2024": 460.2, "2025": 341.7, "2026": 257.4, "2027": 224.1, "2028": 226.8, "2029": 228.0, "2030": 229.1, "2031": 230.3, "2032": 231.5, "2033": 232.7, "2034": 233.8, "2035": 235.0 }, "src": "https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2024-12/2024_population_statement_data_download_national.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Population Statement 2025", "en": "Population Statement 2025" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Population Statement 2025 (Центр по вопросам населения, Минфин Австралии)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Centre for Population, 2025 Population Statement" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2026-01-09", "variant": "projections (central)", "values": { "2025": 311.1, "2026": 262.4, "2027": 227.3, "2028": 226.1, "2029": 225.9, "2030": 227.2, "2031": 228.5, "2032": 229.8, "2033": 231.1, "2034": 232.4, "2035": 233.7, "2036": 235.0, "2066": 235.0 }, "src": "https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2026-01/2025-population-statement-national.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2010, 2032 ], "view": "c=AUS&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "NOM concept break: from September quarter 2006 the ABS measures NOM with the 12/16-month rule; earlier years use a 12/12-month rule with a category-jumping (later 'migration adjustment') term that was set to zero for 1997-98 to 2000-01. The new method gives materially higher NOM (Treasury IGR 2010: IGR 2007's 110,000 'would have been around 140,000'). ABS projections 1999-2004 and IGR 2002/2007 are on the old concept; ABS 2006+ and IGR 2010+ on the new one.", "Preliminary vs final: preliminary NOM is model-based and is revised for about 18 months (e.g. 2008-09: 285.3 thousand first, 313.3 a year later, 299.8 final; 2022-23: 518.1 first, 538.3 final). The actual series 'abs_nom_fy' is the Mar 2026 vintage (final to Mar 2025 quarter); 'abs_nom_fy_first_estimate' gives the first published figure for each year.", "Projection base data are themselves estimates: e.g. the ABS 1999 edition started from preliminary 1998-99 NOM of 117,300 (now 96.5k), the 2004 edition quoted 117,632 for 2003-04 in text while its cube shows 99,966 (now 100.0k).", "Year bases differ: NOM and births are financial years (July-June, key = end year) everywhere; ABS 1999/2002/2004 fertility assumptions are calendar-year labelled; ABS 2006+ cubes and Treasury/Centre for Population TFRs are financial-year; ABS Births, Australia TFR is by calendar year of registration (abs_tfr_cy). Compare like with like (abs_tfr_fy / treasury_tfr_fy for financial years).", "TFR revisions: ABS financial-year TFR 2024-25 was 1.517 (registration-based, Jun and Dec 2025 releases) and 1.464 after revision to date of occurrence (Mar 2026 release, 17 Sep 2026); Treasury's 2026 IGR still shows 1.52. Registration counts are affected by registry backlogs (notably NSW 2020-2021).", "ABS projections are explicitly 'not predictions or forecasts' (what-if combinations of assumptions); Treasury IGR baselines and Population Statement near-term years are forecasts, long-run years are technical assumptions.", "Population Statement first-column years (e.g. 2019-20 in 2020, 2023-24 in 2024) had already ended but full-year ABS data were not yet released; they are forecasts/nowcasts made with data to about the March quarter.", "IGR 2002/2007/2010/2015 only state long-run constants; values were filled only for years after the stated start (e.g. 'constant at 110,000 from the end of the forward estimates (2009-10)' -> 2010-11 on). Forward-estimate years are left empty where the report does not print them; nothing is interpolated.", "Old ABS PDFs (1999, 2002) and 2004 PDF tables were read with pdftotext and every typed value is re-checked against the page text by the build script; the 2004 publication on the ABS site is the reissue with a 14 Jun 2006 corrigendum.", "Released dates for IGR 2007 (2 Apr 2007), IGR 2010 (1 Feb 2010) and IGR 2015 (5 Mar 2015) are release dates; covers are dated April 2007, January 2010 and March 2015. Population Statement dates are the 'Last updated' dates of the data files on population.gov.au." ] }, { "id": "aus_migration_abs", "iso3": "AUS", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Австралия: в 2000–2025 годах миграция добавила 5,39 млн, а прогноз 1999 года ждал 2,38 млн", "en": "Australia: the ABS 1999 projection expected net migration of +2.38M for 2000–2025; the outcome was +5.39M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Австралия: чистая миграция — прогнозы ABS и факт", "en": "Australia: net overseas migration — ABS projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Австралия · миграция (ABS)", "en": "Australia · migration (ABS)" }, "note": { "ru": "7 прогнозов Австралийского бюро статистики (средний вариант) против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 6 из 7. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 1999 года: за 2000–2025 ждали +2,38 млн, вышло +5,39 млн. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "7 projections of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS, Series B) against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 6 of 7. The largest miss: ABS 1999 expected +2.38M for 2000–2025; the outcome was +5.39M. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (ABS, финансовые годы июль–июнь)", "en": "Actual (ABS, financial years July–June)" }, "values": { "1982": 128.1, "1983": 73.3, "1984": 49.1, "1985": 73.8, "1986": 100.5, "1987": 125.8, "1988": 149.4, "1989": 157.5, "1990": 124.7, "1991": 86.5, "1992": 68.6, "1993": 30.1, "1994": 46.6, "1995": 80.2, "1996": 104.0, "1997": 87.2, "1998": 79.1, "1999": 96.5, "2000": 107.2, "2001": 135.7, "2002": 110.6, "2003": 116.5, "2004": 100.0, "2005": 123.8, "2006": 146.7, "2007": 232.7, "2008": 277.4, "2009": 299.8, "2010": 196.1, "2011": 180.4, "2012": 231.9, "2013": 230.3, "2014": 187.8, "2015": 184.1, "2016": 206.3, "2017": 263.4, "2018": 238.2, "2019": 241.3, "2020": 192.7, "2021": -85.0, "2022": 207.9, "2023": 538.3, "2024": 429.2, "2025": 301.5 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2026/310101.xlsx", "definition": "ABS net overseas migration: net gain or loss of population through immigration to and emigration from Australia; from Sep quarter 2006 measured with the 12/16-month rule (counted if in/out of Australia for 12 of the following 16 months); before that a 12/12-month concept with a category-jumping / migration adjustment." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ABS 1999", "en": "ABS 1999" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): демографический прогноз ABS от базы 1999 г., серия II (основная)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): ABS population projections, 1999 base, Series II (TFR 1.6, NOM 90,000)" }, "year": 1999, "published": "2000-08-17", "variant": "Series II (TFR 1.6, NOM 90,000)", "values": { "2000": 118.0, "2001": 104.0, "2002": 90.0, "2003": 90.0, "2004": 90.0, "2005": 90.0, "2006": 90.0, "2007": 90.0, "2008": 90.0, "2009": 90.0, "2010": 90.0, "2011": 90.0, "2012": 90.0, "2013": 90.0, "2014": 90.0, "2015": 90.0, "2016": 90.0, "2017": 90.0, "2018": 90.0, "2019": 90.0, "2020": 90.0, "2021": 90.0, "2022": 90.0, "2023": 90.0, "2024": 90.0, "2025": 90.0, "2026": 90.0, "2027": 90.0, "2028": 90.0, "2029": 90.0, "2030": 90.0, "2031": 90.0, "2032": 90.0, "2033": 90.0, "2034": 90.0, "2035": 90.0, "2036": 90.0, "2037": 90.0, "2038": 90.0, "2039": 90.0, "2040": 90.0, "2041": 90.0, "2042": 90.0, "2043": 90.0, "2044": 90.0, "2045": 90.0, "2046": 90.0, "2047": 90.0, "2048": 90.0, "2049": 90.0, "2050": 90.0, "2051": 90.0, "2052": 90.0, "2053": 90.0, "2054": 90.0, "2055": 90.0, "2056": 90.0, "2057": 90.0, "2058": 90.0, "2059": 90.0, "2060": 90.0, "2061": 90.0, "2062": 90.0, "2063": 90.0, "2064": 90.0, "2065": 90.0, "2066": 90.0, "2067": 90.0, "2068": 90.0, "2069": 90.0, "2070": 90.0, "2071": 90.0, "2072": 90.0, "2073": 90.0, "2074": 90.0, "2075": 90.0, "2076": 90.0, "2077": 90.0, "2078": 90.0, "2079": 90.0, "2080": 90.0, "2081": 90.0, "2082": 90.0, "2083": 90.0, "2084": 90.0, "2085": 90.0, "2086": 90.0, "2087": 90.0, "2088": 90.0, "2089": 90.0, "2090": 90.0, "2091": 90.0, "2092": 90.0, "2093": 90.0, "2094": 90.0, "2095": 90.0, "2096": 90.0, "2097": 90.0, "2098": 90.0, "2099": 90.0, "2100": 90.0, "2101": 90.0 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220_1999%20to%202101.pdf&3222.0&Publication&77DDF6AF34285E7ACA25693E00033443&37&1999%20to%202101&17.08.2000&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2002", "en": "ABS 2002" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2002 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): ABS population projections, 2002 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2002, "published": "2003-09-02", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2003": 115.0, "2004": 110.0, "2005": 105.0, "2006": 100.0, "2007": 100.0, "2008": 100.0, "2009": 100.0, "2010": 100.0, "2011": 100.0, "2012": 100.0, "2013": 100.0, "2014": 100.0, "2015": 100.0, "2016": 100.0, "2017": 100.0, "2018": 100.0, "2019": 100.0, "2020": 100.0, "2021": 100.0, "2022": 100.0, "2023": 100.0, "2024": 100.0, "2025": 100.0, "2026": 100.0, "2027": 100.0, "2028": 100.0, "2029": 100.0, "2030": 100.0, "2031": 100.0, "2032": 100.0, "2033": 100.0, "2034": 100.0, "2035": 100.0, "2036": 100.0, "2037": 100.0, "2038": 100.0, "2039": 100.0, "2040": 100.0, "2041": 100.0, "2042": 100.0, "2043": 100.0, "2044": 100.0, "2045": 100.0, "2046": 100.0, "2047": 100.0, "2048": 100.0, "2049": 100.0, "2050": 100.0, "2051": 100.0, "2052": 100.0, "2053": 100.0, "2054": 100.0, "2055": 100.0, "2056": 100.0, "2057": 100.0, "2058": 100.0, "2059": 100.0, "2060": 100.0, "2061": 100.0, "2062": 100.0, "2063": 100.0, "2064": 100.0, "2065": 100.0, "2066": 100.0, "2067": 100.0, "2068": 100.0, "2069": 100.0, "2070": 100.0, "2071": 100.0, "2072": 100.0, "2073": 100.0, "2074": 100.0, "2075": 100.0, "2076": 100.0, "2077": 100.0, "2078": 100.0, "2079": 100.0, "2080": 100.0, "2081": 100.0, "2082": 100.0, "2083": 100.0, "2084": 100.0, "2085": 100.0, "2086": 100.0, "2087": 100.0, "2088": 100.0, "2089": 100.0, "2090": 100.0, "2091": 100.0, "2092": 100.0, "2093": 100.0, "2094": 100.0, "2095": 100.0, "2096": 100.0, "2097": 100.0, "2098": 100.0, "2099": 100.0, "2100": 100.0, "2101": 100.0 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220_2002-2101.pdf&3222.0&Publication&6C823C06AB7BFDBACA256D9500020672&42&2002%20to%202101&02.09.2003&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2004", "en": "ABS 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2004 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): ABS population projections, 2004 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2005-11-29", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2005": 110.0, "2006": 110.0, "2007": 110.0, "2008": 110.0, "2009": 110.0, "2010": 110.0, "2011": 110.0, "2012": 110.0, "2013": 110.0, "2014": 110.0, "2015": 110.0, "2016": 110.0, "2017": 110.0, "2018": 110.0, "2019": 110.0, "2020": 110.0, "2021": 110.0, "2022": 110.0, "2023": 110.0, "2024": 110.0, "2025": 110.0, "2026": 110.0, "2027": 110.0, "2028": 110.0, "2029": 110.0, "2030": 110.0, "2031": 110.0, "2032": 110.0, "2033": 110.0, "2034": 110.0, "2035": 110.0, "2036": 110.0, "2037": 110.0, "2038": 110.0, "2039": 110.0, "2040": 110.0, "2041": 110.0, "2042": 110.0, "2043": 110.0, "2044": 110.0, "2045": 110.0, "2046": 110.0, "2047": 110.0, "2048": 110.0, "2049": 110.0, "2050": 110.0, "2051": 110.0, "2052": 110.0, "2053": 110.0, "2054": 110.0, "2055": 110.0, "2056": 110.0, "2057": 110.0, "2058": 110.0, "2059": 110.0, "2060": 110.0, "2061": 110.0, "2062": 110.0, "2063": 110.0, "2064": 110.0, "2065": 110.0, "2066": 110.0, "2067": 110.0, "2068": 110.0, "2069": 110.0, "2070": 110.0, "2071": 110.0, "2072": 110.0, "2073": 110.0, "2074": 110.0, "2075": 110.0, "2076": 110.0, "2077": 110.0, "2078": 110.0, "2079": 110.0, "2080": 110.0, "2081": 110.0, "2082": 110.0, "2083": 110.0, "2084": 110.0, "2085": 110.0, "2086": 110.0, "2087": 110.0, "2088": 110.0, "2089": 110.0, "2090": 110.0, "2091": 110.0, "2092": 110.0, "2093": 110.0, "2094": 110.0, "2095": 110.0, "2096": 110.0, "2097": 110.0, "2098": 110.0, "2099": 110.0, "2100": 110.0, "2101": 110.0 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220_2004%20to%202101reissue.pdf&3222.0&Publication&73D26920772F929ECA25718C001518FB&0&2004%20to%202101%20(Corrigendum)&14.06.2006&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2007", "en": "ABS 2007" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2006 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): ABS population projections, 2006 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2008-09-04", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2008": 180.0, "2009": 180.0, "2010": 180.0, "2011": 180.0, "2012": 180.0, "2013": 180.0, "2014": 180.0, "2015": 180.0, "2016": 180.0, "2017": 180.0, "2018": 180.0, "2019": 180.0, "2020": 180.0, "2021": 180.0, "2022": 180.0, "2023": 180.0, "2024": 180.0, "2025": 180.0, "2026": 180.0, "2027": 180.0, "2028": 180.0, "2029": 180.0, "2030": 180.0, "2031": 180.0, "2032": 180.0, "2033": 180.0, "2034": 180.0, "2035": 180.0, "2036": 180.0, "2037": 180.0, "2038": 180.0, "2039": 180.0, "2040": 180.0, "2041": 180.0, "2042": 180.0, "2043": 180.0, "2044": 180.0, "2045": 180.0, "2046": 180.0, "2047": 180.0, "2048": 180.0, "2049": 180.0, "2050": 180.0, "2051": 180.0, "2052": 180.0, "2053": 180.0, "2054": 180.0, "2055": 180.0, "2056": 180.0, "2057": 180.0, "2058": 180.0, "2059": 180.0, "2060": 180.0, "2061": 180.0, "2062": 180.0, "2063": 180.0, "2064": 180.0, "2065": 180.0, "2066": 180.0, "2067": 180.0, "2068": 180.0, "2069": 180.0, "2070": 180.0, "2071": 180.0, "2072": 180.0, "2073": 180.0, "2074": 180.0, "2075": 180.0, "2076": 180.0, "2077": 180.0, "2078": 180.0, "2079": 180.0, "2080": 180.0, "2081": 180.0, "2082": 180.0, "2083": 180.0, "2084": 180.0, "2085": 180.0, "2086": 180.0, "2087": 180.0, "2088": 180.0, "2089": 180.0, "2090": 180.0, "2091": 180.0, "2092": 180.0, "2093": 180.0, "2094": 180.0, "2095": 180.0, "2096": 180.0, "2097": 180.0, "2098": 180.0, "2099": 180.0, "2100": 180.0, "2101": 180.0 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220ds10_summary_statistics_2006-2101.xls&3222.0&Data%20Cubes&608B028250780E65CA2574B90015EDDB&0&2006%20to%202101&04.09.2008&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2012", "en": "ABS 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2012 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): ABS population projections, 2012 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013-11-26", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2013": 237.0, "2014": 242.0, "2015": 251.0, "2016": 251.0, "2017": 251.0, "2018": 248.0, "2019": 245.0, "2020": 243.0, "2021": 240.0, "2022": 240.0, "2023": 240.0, "2024": 240.0, "2025": 240.0, "2026": 240.0, "2027": 240.0, "2028": 240.0, "2029": 240.0, "2030": 240.0, "2031": 240.0, "2032": 240.0, "2033": 240.0, "2034": 240.0, "2035": 240.0, "2036": 240.0, "2037": 240.0, "2038": 240.0, "2039": 240.0, "2040": 240.0, "2041": 240.0, "2042": 240.0, "2043": 240.0, "2044": 240.0, "2045": 240.0, "2046": 240.0, "2047": 240.0, "2048": 240.0, "2049": 240.0, "2050": 240.0, "2051": 240.0, "2052": 240.0, "2053": 240.0, "2054": 240.0, "2055": 240.0, "2056": 240.0, "2057": 240.0, "2058": 240.0, "2059": 240.0, "2060": 240.0, "2061": 240.0, "2062": 240.0, "2063": 240.0, "2064": 240.0, "2065": 240.0, "2066": 240.0, "2067": 240.0, "2068": 240.0, "2069": 240.0, "2070": 240.0, "2071": 240.0, "2072": 240.0, "2073": 240.0, "2074": 240.0, "2075": 240.0, "2076": 240.0, "2077": 240.0, "2078": 240.0, "2079": 240.0, "2080": 240.0, "2081": 240.0, "2082": 240.0, "2083": 240.0, "2084": 240.0, "2085": 240.0, "2086": 240.0, "2087": 240.0, "2088": 240.0, "2089": 240.0, "2090": 240.0, "2091": 240.0, "2092": 240.0, "2093": 240.0, "2094": 240.0, "2095": 240.0, "2096": 240.0, "2097": 240.0, "2098": 240.0, "2099": 240.0, "2100": 240.0, "2101": 240.0 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220ds10_summary_statistics_2012(base)-2101.xls&3222.0&Data%20Cubes&2A3AF8EC0D8AF32CCA257C2E00172062&0&2012%20(base)%20to%202101&26.11.2013&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2017", "en": "ABS 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2017 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): ABS population projections, 2017 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2018-11-22", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2018": 259.0, "2019": 269.0, "2020": 267.0, "2021": 262.0, "2022": 258.0, "2023": 251.0, "2024": 245.0, "2025": 238.0, "2026": 232.0, "2027": 225.0, "2028": 225.0, "2029": 225.0, "2030": 225.0, "2031": 225.0, "2032": 225.0, "2033": 225.0, "2034": 225.0, "2035": 225.0, "2036": 225.0, "2037": 225.0, "2038": 225.0, "2039": 225.0, "2040": 225.0, "2041": 225.0, "2042": 225.0, "2043": 225.0, "2044": 225.0, "2045": 225.0, "2046": 225.0, "2047": 225.0, "2048": 225.0, "2049": 225.0, "2050": 225.0, "2051": 225.0, "2052": 225.0, "2053": 225.0, "2054": 225.0, "2055": 225.0, "2056": 225.0, "2057": 225.0, "2058": 225.0, "2059": 225.0, "2060": 225.0, "2061": 225.0, "2062": 225.0, "2063": 225.0, "2064": 225.0, "2065": 225.0, "2066": 225.0 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/2017-base-2066/32220ds01_2017-2066_summary_statistics.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2022", "en": "ABS 2022" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2022 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): ABS population projections, 2022 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2023-11-23", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2023": 400.0, "2024": 315.0, "2025": 304.0, "2026": 293.0, "2027": 282.0, "2028": 271.0, "2029": 260.0, "2030": 248.0, "2031": 237.0, "2032": 225.0, "2033": 225.0, "2034": 225.0, "2035": 225.0, "2036": 225.0, "2037": 225.0, "2038": 225.0, "2039": 225.0, "2040": 225.0, "2041": 225.0, "2042": 225.0, "2043": 225.0, "2044": 225.0, "2045": 225.0, "2046": 225.0, "2047": 225.0, "2048": 225.0, "2049": 225.0, "2050": 225.0, "2051": 225.0, "2052": 225.0, "2053": 225.0, "2054": 225.0, "2055": 225.0, "2056": 225.0, "2057": 225.0, "2058": 225.0, "2059": 225.0, "2060": 225.0, "2061": 225.0, "2062": 225.0, "2063": 225.0, "2064": 225.0, "2065": 225.0, "2066": 225.0, "2067": 225.0, "2068": 225.0, "2069": 225.0, "2070": 225.0, "2071": 225.0 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/2022-base-2071/Projected%20population%2C%20components%20of%20change%20and%20summary%20statistics%2C%202022%20%28base%29%20to%202071.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2032 ], "view": "c=AUS&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "NOM concept break: from September quarter 2006 the ABS measures NOM with the 12/16-month rule; earlier years use a 12/12-month rule with a category-jumping (later 'migration adjustment') term that was set to zero for 1997-98 to 2000-01. The new method gives materially higher NOM (Treasury IGR 2010: IGR 2007's 110,000 'would have been around 140,000'). ABS projections 1999-2004 and IGR 2002/2007 are on the old concept; ABS 2006+ and IGR 2010+ on the new one.", "Preliminary vs final: preliminary NOM is model-based and is revised for about 18 months (e.g. 2008-09: 285.3 thousand first, 313.3 a year later, 299.8 final; 2022-23: 518.1 first, 538.3 final). The actual series 'abs_nom_fy' is the Mar 2026 vintage (final to Mar 2025 quarter); 'abs_nom_fy_first_estimate' gives the first published figure for each year.", "Projection base data are themselves estimates: e.g. the ABS 1999 edition started from preliminary 1998-99 NOM of 117,300 (now 96.5k), the 2004 edition quoted 117,632 for 2003-04 in text while its cube shows 99,966 (now 100.0k).", "Year bases differ: NOM and births are financial years (July-June, key = end year) everywhere; ABS 1999/2002/2004 fertility assumptions are calendar-year labelled; ABS 2006+ cubes and Treasury/Centre for Population TFRs are financial-year; ABS Births, Australia TFR is by calendar year of registration (abs_tfr_cy). Compare like with like (abs_tfr_fy / treasury_tfr_fy for financial years).", "TFR revisions: ABS financial-year TFR 2024-25 was 1.517 (registration-based, Jun and Dec 2025 releases) and 1.464 after revision to date of occurrence (Mar 2026 release, 17 Sep 2026); Treasury's 2026 IGR still shows 1.52. Registration counts are affected by registry backlogs (notably NSW 2020-2021).", "ABS projections are explicitly 'not predictions or forecasts' (what-if combinations of assumptions); Treasury IGR baselines and Population Statement near-term years are forecasts, long-run years are technical assumptions.", "Population Statement first-column years (e.g. 2019-20 in 2020, 2023-24 in 2024) had already ended but full-year ABS data were not yet released; they are forecasts/nowcasts made with data to about the March quarter.", "IGR 2002/2007/2010/2015 only state long-run constants; values were filled only for years after the stated start (e.g. 'constant at 110,000 from the end of the forward estimates (2009-10)' -> 2010-11 on). Forward-estimate years are left empty where the report does not print them; nothing is interpolated.", "Old ABS PDFs (1999, 2002) and 2004 PDF tables were read with pdftotext and every typed value is re-checked against the page text by the build script; the 2004 publication on the ABS site is the reissue with a 14 Jun 2006 corrigendum.", "Released dates for IGR 2007 (2 Apr 2007), IGR 2010 (1 Feb 2010) and IGR 2015 (5 Mar 2015) are release dates; covers are dated April 2007, January 2010 and March 2015. Population Statement dates are the 'Last updated' dates of the data files on population.gov.au." ] }, { "id": "aus_births", "iso3": "AUS", "section": "demography", "metric": "births", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. рождений в год", "en": "thousand births a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Австралия: прогноз 1999 года ждал рождений 240 тыс. на 2021 год — вышло 305 тыс.", "en": "Australia: the ABS 1999 projection expected births of 240k for 2021; the outcome was 305k" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Австралия: рождения — прогнозы ABS и факт", "en": "Australia: births — ABS projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Австралия · рождения", "en": "Australia · births" }, "note": { "ru": "7 прогнозов Австралийского бюро статистики (средний вариант) сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 4 из 7, выше — в 3. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 1999 года: ждал на 2021 год 240 тыс., вышло 305 тыс. (+27,2%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "7 projections of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS, Series B) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 4 of 7, above in 3. The largest miss: ABS 1999 expected 240k for 2021; the outcome was 305k (+27.2%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (ABS, финансовые годы июль–июнь)", "en": "Actual (ABS, financial years July–June)" }, "values": { "1982": 237.1, "1983": 241.8, "1984": 240.5, "1985": 241.9, "1986": 239.1, "1987": 242.9, "1988": 246.2, "1989": 250.3, "1990": 257.5, "1991": 261.1, "1992": 259.6, "1993": 260.5, "1994": 258.9, "1995": 258.6, "1996": 250.8, "1997": 254.3, "1998": 249.8, "1999": 250.7, "2000": 250.5, "2001": 249.3, "2002": 249.4, "2003": 249.2, "2004": 252.0, "2005": 258.3, "2006": 266.1, "2007": 287.3, "2008": 295.2, "2009": 300.1, "2010": 304.0, "2011": 301.1, "2012": 306.0, "2013": 311.1, "2014": 307.0, "2015": 307.7, "2016": 311.7, "2017": 307.8, "2018": 304.6, "2019": 304.7, "2020": 299.3, "2021": 305.1, "2022": 308.7, "2023": 291.1, "2024": 290.3, "2025": 291.5 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2026/310101.xlsx", "definition": "Births used in ERP: preliminary quarters = registrations in the quarter; revised/final quarters = births occurring in the quarter (date of occurrence, allowing for registration lag)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ABS 1999", "en": "ABS 1999" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Число рождений: демографический прогноз ABS от базы 1999 г., серия II (основная)", "en": "Births: ABS population projections, 1999 base, Series II (TFR 1.6, NOM 90,000)" }, "year": 1999, "published": "2000-08-17", "variant": "Series II (TFR 1.6, NOM 90,000)", "values": { "2000": 246.3, "2001": 245.6, "2006": 238.4, "2011": 234.4, "2016": 236.7, "2021": 239.9, "2026": 240.7, "2031": 237.9, "2036": 234.2, "2041": 232.0, "2046": 232.1, "2051": 233.5, "2101": 230.5 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220_1999%20to%202101.pdf&3222.0&Publication&77DDF6AF34285E7ACA25693E00033443&37&1999%20to%202101&17.08.2000&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2002", "en": "ABS 2002" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Число рождений: демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2002 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Births: ABS population projections, 2002 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2002, "published": "2003-09-02", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2003": 246.0, "2004": 245.0, "2006": 242.5, "2011": 236.4, "2016": 240.8, "2021": 245.6, "2026": 246.6, "2031": 243.9, "2036": 239.6, "2041": 236.7, "2046": 236.5, "2051": 238.1, "2101": 232.0 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220_2002-2101.pdf&3222.0&Publication&6C823C06AB7BFDBACA256D9500020672&42&2002%20to%202101&02.09.2003&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2004", "en": "ABS 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Число рождений: демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2004 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Births: ABS population projections, 2004 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2005-11-29", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2005": 254.1, "2006": 254.532, "2011": 255.775, "2016": 258.95, "2021": 263.589, "2026": 267.674, "2031": 268.642, "2036": 268.354, "2041": 269.821, "2046": 272.451, "2051": 275.313, "2061": 280.235, "2071": 282.242, "2081": 285.837, "2091": 289.796, "2101": 292.288 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220_2004_2101_summary_measures.xls&3222.0&Data%20Cubes&E5B35C39903D8156CA2570C7007D22ED&0&2004%20to%202101&29.11.2005&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2007", "en": "ABS 2007" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Число рождений: демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2006 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Births: ABS population projections, 2006 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2008-09-04", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2008": 281.912, "2009": 283.417, "2010": 285.671, "2011": 288.207, "2012": 290.912, "2013": 293.751, "2014": 296.678, "2015": 299.633, "2016": 302.548, "2017": 305.353, "2018": 307.983, "2019": 310.392, "2020": 312.552, "2021": 314.451, "2022": 316.627, "2023": 319.084, "2024": 321.298, "2025": 323.301, "2026": 325.121, "2027": 326.789, "2028": 328.344, "2029": 329.832, "2030": 331.297, "2031": 332.784, "2032": 334.339, "2033": 336.011, "2034": 337.846, "2035": 339.879, "2036": 342.125, "2037": 344.58, "2038": 347.213, "2039": 349.976, "2040": 352.816, "2041": 355.684, "2042": 358.542, "2043": 361.36, "2044": 364.11, "2045": 366.772, "2046": 369.331, "2047": 371.782, "2048": 374.128, "2049": 376.38, "2050": 378.548, "2051": 380.642, "2052": 382.67, "2053": 384.638, "2054": 386.551, "2055": 388.412, "2056": 390.224, "2057": 391.994, "2058": 393.728, "2059": 395.434, "2060": 397.123, "2061": 398.806, "2062": 400.494, "2063": 402.199, "2064": 403.931, "2065": 405.701, "2066": 407.519, "2067": 409.391, "2068": 411.322, "2069": 413.312, "2070": 415.357, "2071": 417.452, "2072": 419.587, "2073": 421.75, "2074": 423.927, "2075": 426.106, "2076": 428.273, "2077": 430.416, "2078": 432.525, "2079": 434.592, "2080": 436.61, "2081": 438.577, "2082": 440.491, "2083": 442.353, "2084": 444.164, "2085": 445.929, "2086": 447.652, "2087": 449.338, "2088": 450.992, "2089": 452.62, "2090": 454.227, "2091": 455.821, "2092": 457.407, "2093": 458.99, "2094": 460.576, "2095": 462.17, "2096": 463.776, "2097": 465.397, "2098": 467.038, "2099": 468.699, "2100": 470.382, "2101": 472.085 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220ds10_summary_statistics_2006-2101.xls&3222.0&Data%20Cubes&608B028250780E65CA2574B90015EDDB&0&2006%20to%202101&04.09.2008&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2012", "en": "ABS 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Число рождений: демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2012 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Births: ABS population projections, 2012 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013-11-26", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2013": 310.133, "2014": 314.799, "2015": 319.59, "2016": 324.342, "2017": 328.859, "2018": 333.017, "2019": 336.71, "2020": 339.911, "2021": 342.614, "2022": 344.867, "2023": 346.752, "2024": 348.323, "2025": 349.635, "2026": 350.736, "2027": 352.45, "2028": 354.849, "2029": 357.23, "2030": 359.667, "2031": 362.225, "2032": 364.955, "2033": 367.892, "2034": 371.06, "2035": 374.474, "2036": 378.135, "2037": 382.025, "2038": 386.115, "2039": 390.365, "2040": 394.733, "2041": 399.169, "2042": 403.617, "2043": 408.024, "2044": 412.347, "2045": 416.549, "2046": 420.597, "2047": 424.473, "2048": 428.159, "2049": 431.644, "2050": 434.922, "2051": 437.999, "2052": 440.887, "2053": 443.604, "2054": 446.172, "2055": 448.614, "2056": 450.957, "2057": 453.233, "2058": 455.477, "2059": 457.719, "2060": 459.991, "2061": 462.319, "2062": 464.724, "2063": 467.222, "2064": 469.827, "2065": 472.546, "2066": 475.38, "2067": 478.326, "2068": 481.378, "2069": 484.524, "2070": 487.75, "2071": 491.038, "2072": 494.372, "2073": 497.731, "2074": 501.093, "2075": 504.442, "2076": 507.756, "2077": 511.018, "2078": 514.214, "2079": 517.329, "2080": 520.355, "2081": 523.285, "2082": 526.116, "2083": 528.85, "2084": 531.489, "2085": 534.041, "2086": 536.515, "2087": 538.923, "2088": 541.276, "2089": 543.59, "2090": 545.878, "2091": 548.153, "2092": 550.431, "2093": 552.722, "2094": 555.038, "2095": 557.388, "2096": 559.778, "2097": 562.212, "2098": 564.693, "2099": 567.221, "2100": 569.794, "2101": 572.407 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32220ds10_summary_statistics_2012(base)-2101.xls&3222.0&Data%20Cubes&2A3AF8EC0D8AF32CCA257C2E00172062&0&2012%20(base)%20to%202101&26.11.2013&Latest" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2017", "en": "ABS 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Число рождений: демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2017 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Births: ABS population projections, 2017 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2018-11-22", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2018": 323.481, "2019": 330.239, "2020": 336.833, "2021": 343.033, "2022": 348.795, "2023": 354.1, "2024": 358.939, "2025": 363.338, "2026": 367.315, "2027": 370.881, "2028": 374.052, "2029": 376.93, "2030": 379.62, "2031": 382.169, "2032": 384.638, "2033": 387.106, "2034": 389.655, "2035": 392.357, "2036": 395.253, "2037": 398.361, "2038": 401.672, "2039": 405.145, "2040": 408.726, "2041": 412.361, "2042": 416.01, "2043": 419.633, "2044": 423.199, "2045": 426.705, "2046": 430.175, "2047": 433.631, "2048": 437.103, "2049": 440.621, "2050": 444.203, "2051": 447.858, "2052": 451.574, "2053": 455.331, "2054": 459.095, "2055": 462.829, "2056": 466.494, "2057": 470.055, "2058": 473.494, "2059": 476.805, "2060": 479.981, "2061": 483.026, "2062": 485.955, "2063": 488.784, "2064": 491.541, "2065": 494.254, "2066": 496.94 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/2017-base-2066/32220ds01_2017-2066_summary_statistics.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "ABS 2022", "en": "ABS 2022" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Число рождений: демографический прогноз ABS от базы 2022 г., серия B (средняя)", "en": "Births: ABS population projections, 2022 base, Series B (medium)" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2023-11-23", "variant": "Series B (medium)", "values": { "2023": 302.52, "2024": 305.531, "2025": 307.38, "2026": 308.791, "2027": 309.843, "2028": 311.101, "2029": 312.666, "2030": 314.178, "2031": 315.728, "2032": 317.396, "2033": 319.311, "2034": 321.586, "2035": 324.212, "2036": 327.126, "2037": 330.238, "2038": 333.467, "2039": 336.71, "2040": 339.83, "2041": 342.718, "2042": 345.277, "2043": 347.448, "2044": 349.24, "2045": 350.674, "2046": 351.763, "2047": 352.561, "2048": 353.131, "2049": 353.533, "2050": 353.821, "2051": 354.053, "2052": 354.282, "2053": 354.558, "2054": 354.914, "2055": 355.351, "2056": 355.875, "2057": 356.491, "2058": 357.191, "2059": 357.99, "2060": 358.905, "2061": 359.934, "2062": 361.081, "2063": 362.341, "2064": 363.712, "2065": 365.187, "2066": 366.762, "2067": 368.424, "2068": 370.149, "2069": 371.918, "2070": 373.705, "2071": 375.479 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/2022-base-2071/Projected%20population%2C%20components%20of%20change%20and%20summary%20statistics%2C%202022%20%28base%29%20to%202071.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2032 ], "view": "c=AUS&i=births,tfr&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "NOM concept break: from September quarter 2006 the ABS measures NOM with the 12/16-month rule; earlier years use a 12/12-month rule with a category-jumping (later 'migration adjustment') term that was set to zero for 1997-98 to 2000-01. The new method gives materially higher NOM (Treasury IGR 2010: IGR 2007's 110,000 'would have been around 140,000'). ABS projections 1999-2004 and IGR 2002/2007 are on the old concept; ABS 2006+ and IGR 2010+ on the new one.", "Preliminary vs final: preliminary NOM is model-based and is revised for about 18 months (e.g. 2008-09: 285.3 thousand first, 313.3 a year later, 299.8 final; 2022-23: 518.1 first, 538.3 final). The actual series 'abs_nom_fy' is the Mar 2026 vintage (final to Mar 2025 quarter); 'abs_nom_fy_first_estimate' gives the first published figure for each year.", "Projection base data are themselves estimates: e.g. the ABS 1999 edition started from preliminary 1998-99 NOM of 117,300 (now 96.5k), the 2004 edition quoted 117,632 for 2003-04 in text while its cube shows 99,966 (now 100.0k).", "Year bases differ: NOM and births are financial years (July-June, key = end year) everywhere; ABS 1999/2002/2004 fertility assumptions are calendar-year labelled; ABS 2006+ cubes and Treasury/Centre for Population TFRs are financial-year; ABS Births, Australia TFR is by calendar year of registration (abs_tfr_cy). Compare like with like (abs_tfr_fy / treasury_tfr_fy for financial years).", "TFR revisions: ABS financial-year TFR 2024-25 was 1.517 (registration-based, Jun and Dec 2025 releases) and 1.464 after revision to date of occurrence (Mar 2026 release, 17 Sep 2026); Treasury's 2026 IGR still shows 1.52. Registration counts are affected by registry backlogs (notably NSW 2020-2021).", "ABS projections are explicitly 'not predictions or forecasts' (what-if combinations of assumptions); Treasury IGR baselines and Population Statement near-term years are forecasts, long-run years are technical assumptions.", "Population Statement first-column years (e.g. 2019-20 in 2020, 2023-24 in 2024) had already ended but full-year ABS data were not yet released; they are forecasts/nowcasts made with data to about the March quarter.", "IGR 2002/2007/2010/2015 only state long-run constants; values were filled only for years after the stated start (e.g. 'constant at 110,000 from the end of the forward estimates (2009-10)' -> 2010-11 on). Forward-estimate years are left empty where the report does not print them; nothing is interpolated.", "Old ABS PDFs (1999, 2002) and 2004 PDF tables were read with pdftotext and every typed value is re-checked against the page text by the build script; the 2004 publication on the ABS site is the reissue with a 14 Jun 2006 corrigendum.", "Released dates for IGR 2007 (2 Apr 2007), IGR 2010 (1 Feb 2010) and IGR 2015 (5 Mar 2015) are release dates; covers are dated April 2007, January 2010 and March 2015. Population Statement dates are the 'Last updated' dates of the data files on population.gov.au." ] }, { "id": "aus_migration_igr", "iso3": "AUS", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Австралия: в 2003–2025 годах миграция добавила 5,04 млн, а прогноз 2002 года ждал 2,07 млн", "en": "Australia: the IGR 2002 projection expected net migration of +2.07M for 2003–2025; the outcome was +5.04M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Австралия: чистая миграция — допущения межпоколенческих докладов Минфина и факт", "en": "Australia: net overseas migration — Intergenerational Report assumptions vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Австралия · миграция (IGR)", "en": "Australia · migration (IGR)" }, "note": { "ru": "6 прогнозов Межпоколенческих докладов Минфина Австралии против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 6 из 6. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2002 года: за 2003–2025 ждали +2,07 млн, вышло +5,04 млн. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "6 projections of the Australian Treasury's Intergenerational Reports (IGR) against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 6 of 6. The largest miss: IGR 2002 expected +2.07M for 2003–2025; the outcome was +5.04M. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (ABS, финансовые годы июль–июнь)", "en": "Actual (ABS, financial years July–June)" }, "values": { "1982": 128.1, "1983": 73.3, "1984": 49.1, "1985": 73.8, "1986": 100.5, "1987": 125.8, "1988": 149.4, "1989": 157.5, "1990": 124.7, "1991": 86.5, "1992": 68.6, "1993": 30.1, "1994": 46.6, "1995": 80.2, "1996": 104.0, "1997": 87.2, "1998": 79.1, "1999": 96.5, "2000": 107.2, "2001": 135.7, "2002": 110.6, "2003": 116.5, "2004": 100.0, "2005": 123.8, "2006": 146.7, "2007": 232.7, "2008": 277.4, "2009": 299.8, "2010": 196.1, "2011": 180.4, "2012": 231.9, "2013": 230.3, "2014": 187.8, "2015": 184.1, "2016": 206.3, "2017": 263.4, "2018": 238.2, "2019": 241.3, "2020": 192.7, "2021": -85.0, "2022": 207.9, "2023": 538.3, "2024": 429.2, "2025": 301.5 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2026/310101.xlsx", "definition": "ABS net overseas migration: net gain or loss of population through immigration to and emigration from Australia; from Sep quarter 2006 measured with the 12/16-month rule (counted if in/out of Australia for 12 of the following 16 months); before that a 12/12-month concept with a category-jumping / migration adjustment." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2002", "en": "IGR 2002" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2002 г. (IGR)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Treasury Intergenerational Report 2002" }, "year": 2002, "published": "2002-05-14", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2003": 90.0, "2004": 90.0, "2005": 90.0, "2006": 90.0, "2007": 90.0, "2008": 90.0, "2009": 90.0, "2010": 90.0, "2011": 90.0, "2012": 90.0, "2013": 90.0, "2014": 90.0, "2015": 90.0, "2016": 90.0, "2017": 90.0, "2018": 90.0, "2019": 90.0, "2020": 90.0, "2021": 90.0, "2022": 90.0, "2023": 90.0, "2024": 90.0, "2025": 90.0, "2026": 90.0, "2027": 90.0, "2028": 90.0, "2029": 90.0, "2030": 90.0, "2031": 90.0, "2032": 90.0, "2033": 90.0, "2034": 90.0, "2035": 90.0, "2036": 90.0, "2037": 90.0, "2038": 90.0, "2039": 90.0, "2040": 90.0, "2041": 90.0, "2042": 90.0 }, "src": "https://archive.budget.gov.au/2002-03/bp5/bp5_combined_pdf.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2007", "en": "IGR 2007" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2007 г. (IGR)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Treasury Intergenerational Report 2007" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2007-04-02", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2011": 110.0, "2012": 110.0, "2013": 110.0, "2014": 110.0, "2015": 110.0, "2016": 110.0, "2017": 110.0, "2018": 110.0, "2019": 110.0, "2020": 110.0, "2021": 110.0, "2022": 110.0, "2023": 110.0, "2024": 110.0, "2025": 110.0, "2026": 110.0, "2027": 110.0, "2028": 110.0, "2029": 110.0, "2030": 110.0, "2031": 110.0, "2032": 110.0, "2033": 110.0, "2034": 110.0, "2035": 110.0, "2036": 110.0, "2037": 110.0, "2038": 110.0, "2039": 110.0, "2040": 110.0, "2041": 110.0, "2042": 110.0, "2043": 110.0, "2044": 110.0, "2045": 110.0, "2046": 110.0, "2047": 110.0 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/IGR_2007_final_report.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2010", "en": "IGR 2010" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2010 г. (IGR)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Treasury Intergenerational Report 2010" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2010-02-01", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2013": 180.0, "2014": 180.0, "2015": 180.0, "2016": 180.0, "2017": 180.0, "2018": 180.0, "2019": 180.0, "2020": 180.0, "2021": 180.0, "2022": 180.0, "2023": 180.0, "2024": 180.0, "2025": 180.0, "2026": 180.0, "2027": 180.0, "2028": 180.0, "2029": 180.0, "2030": 180.0, "2031": 180.0, "2032": 180.0, "2033": 180.0, "2034": 180.0, "2035": 180.0, "2036": 180.0, "2037": 180.0, "2038": 180.0, "2039": 180.0, "2040": 180.0, "2041": 180.0, "2042": 180.0, "2043": 180.0, "2044": 180.0, "2045": 180.0, "2046": 180.0, "2047": 180.0, "2048": 180.0, "2049": 180.0, "2050": 180.0 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/IGR_2010.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2015", "en": "IGR 2015" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2015 г. (IGR)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Treasury Intergenerational Report 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-03-05", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2019": 215.0, "2020": 215.0, "2021": 215.0, "2022": 215.0, "2023": 215.0, "2024": 215.0, "2025": 215.0, "2026": 215.0, "2027": 215.0, "2028": 215.0, "2029": 215.0, "2030": 215.0, "2031": 215.0, "2032": 215.0, "2033": 215.0, "2034": 215.0, "2035": 215.0, "2036": 215.0, "2037": 215.0, "2038": 215.0, "2039": 215.0, "2040": 215.0, "2041": 215.0, "2042": 215.0, "2043": 215.0, "2044": 215.0, "2045": 215.0, "2046": 215.0, "2047": 215.0, "2048": 215.0, "2049": 215.0, "2050": 215.0, "2051": 215.0, "2052": 215.0, "2053": 215.0, "2054": 215.0, "2055": 215.0 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/2015_IGR.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2021", "en": "IGR 2021" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2021 г. (IGR)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Treasury Intergenerational Report 2021" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2021-06-28", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2021": -96.6, "2022": -77.4, "2023": 95.9, "2024": 201.1, "2025": 235.0, "2026": 235.0, "2027": 235.0, "2028": 235.0, "2029": 235.0, "2030": 235.0, "2031": 235.0, "2032": 235.0, "2033": 235.0, "2034": 235.0, "2035": 235.0, "2036": 235.0, "2037": 235.0, "2038": 235.0, "2039": 235.0, "2040": 235.0, "2041": 235.0, "2042": 235.0, "2043": 235.0, "2044": 235.0, "2045": 235.0, "2046": 235.0, "2047": 235.0, "2048": 235.0, "2049": 235.0, "2050": 235.0, "2051": 235.0, "2052": 235.0, "2053": 235.0, "2054": 235.0, "2055": 235.0, "2056": 235.0, "2057": 235.0, "2058": 235.0, "2059": 235.0, "2060": 235.0, "2061": 235.0 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-07/p2021_182464-cd.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2023", "en": "IGR 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (NOM): Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2023 г. (IGR)", "en": "Net overseas migration (NOM): Treasury Intergenerational Report 2023" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2023-08-24", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2023": 400.0, "2024": 315.0, "2025": 260.0, "2026": 260.0, "2027": 260.0, "2028": 255.0, "2029": 250.0, "2030": 245.0, "2031": 240.0, "2032": 235.0, "2033": 235.0, "2034": 235.0, "2035": 235.0, "2036": 235.0, "2037": 235.0, "2038": 235.0, "2039": 235.0, "2040": 235.0, "2041": 235.0, "2042": 235.0, "2043": 235.0, "2044": 235.0, "2045": 235.0, "2046": 235.0, "2047": 235.0, "2048": 235.0, "2049": 235.0, "2050": 235.0, "2051": 235.0, "2052": 235.0, "2053": 235.0, "2054": 235.0, "2055": 235.0, "2056": 235.0, "2057": 235.0, "2058": 235.0, "2059": 235.0, "2060": 235.0, "2061": 235.0, "2062": 235.0, "2063": 235.0 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-09/p2023-435150-cd.zip" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2032 ], "view": "c=AUS&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "NOM concept break: from September quarter 2006 the ABS measures NOM with the 12/16-month rule; earlier years use a 12/12-month rule with a category-jumping (later 'migration adjustment') term that was set to zero for 1997-98 to 2000-01. The new method gives materially higher NOM (Treasury IGR 2010: IGR 2007's 110,000 'would have been around 140,000'). ABS projections 1999-2004 and IGR 2002/2007 are on the old concept; ABS 2006+ and IGR 2010+ on the new one.", "Preliminary vs final: preliminary NOM is model-based and is revised for about 18 months (e.g. 2008-09: 285.3 thousand first, 313.3 a year later, 299.8 final; 2022-23: 518.1 first, 538.3 final). The actual series 'abs_nom_fy' is the Mar 2026 vintage (final to Mar 2025 quarter); 'abs_nom_fy_first_estimate' gives the first published figure for each year.", "Projection base data are themselves estimates: e.g. the ABS 1999 edition started from preliminary 1998-99 NOM of 117,300 (now 96.5k), the 2004 edition quoted 117,632 for 2003-04 in text while its cube shows 99,966 (now 100.0k).", "Year bases differ: NOM and births are financial years (July-June, key = end year) everywhere; ABS 1999/2002/2004 fertility assumptions are calendar-year labelled; ABS 2006+ cubes and Treasury/Centre for Population TFRs are financial-year; ABS Births, Australia TFR is by calendar year of registration (abs_tfr_cy). Compare like with like (abs_tfr_fy / treasury_tfr_fy for financial years).", "TFR revisions: ABS financial-year TFR 2024-25 was 1.517 (registration-based, Jun and Dec 2025 releases) and 1.464 after revision to date of occurrence (Mar 2026 release, 17 Sep 2026); Treasury's 2026 IGR still shows 1.52. Registration counts are affected by registry backlogs (notably NSW 2020-2021).", "ABS projections are explicitly 'not predictions or forecasts' (what-if combinations of assumptions); Treasury IGR baselines and Population Statement near-term years are forecasts, long-run years are technical assumptions.", "Population Statement first-column years (e.g. 2019-20 in 2020, 2023-24 in 2024) had already ended but full-year ABS data were not yet released; they are forecasts/nowcasts made with data to about the March quarter.", "IGR 2002/2007/2010/2015 only state long-run constants; values were filled only for years after the stated start (e.g. 'constant at 110,000 from the end of the forward estimates (2009-10)' -> 2010-11 on). Forward-estimate years are left empty where the report does not print them; nothing is interpolated.", "Old ABS PDFs (1999, 2002) and 2004 PDF tables were read with pdftotext and every typed value is re-checked against the page text by the build script; the 2004 publication on the ABS site is the reissue with a 14 Jun 2006 corrigendum.", "Released dates for IGR 2007 (2 Apr 2007), IGR 2010 (1 Feb 2010) and IGR 2015 (5 Mar 2015) are release dates; covers are dated April 2007, January 2010 and March 2015. Population Statement dates are the 'Last updated' dates of the data files on population.gov.au." ] }, { "id": "aus_tfr_igr", "iso3": "AUS", "section": "demography", "metric": "tfr", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "ребёнка на женщину", "en": "children per woman", "dec": 2 }, "headline": { "ru": "Австралия: прогноз 2010 года ждал 1,90 ребёнка на женщину на 2025 год — вышло 1,52", "en": "Australia: the IGR 2010 projection expected fertility of 1.90 for 2025; the outcome was 1.52" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Австралия: рождаемость — допущения межпоколенческих докладов Минфина и факт", "en": "Australia: fertility — Intergenerational Report assumptions vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Австралия · рождаемость (IGR)", "en": "Australia · fertility (IGR)" }, "note": { "ru": "6 прогнозов Межпоколенческих докладов Минфина Австралии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 5 из 6, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2010 года: ждал на 2025 год 1,90 ребёнка на женщину, вышло 1,52 (−20,0%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "6 projections of the Australian Treasury's Intergenerational Reports (IGR) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 5 of 6, above in 1. The largest miss: IGR 2010 expected 1.90 for 2025; the outcome was 1.52 (−20.0%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (ряд Минфина Австралии, финансовые годы июль–июнь)", "en": "Actual (the Treasury's series, financial years July–June)" }, "values": { "1926": 2.85, "1927": 2.8, "1928": 2.77, "1929": 2.64, "1930": 2.58, "1931": 2.36, "1932": 2.19, "1933": 2.17, "1934": 2.11, "1935": 2.12, "1936": 2.18, "1937": 2.21, "1938": 2.21, "1939": 2.22, "1940": 2.26, "1941": 2.36, "1942": 2.38, "1943": 2.57, "1944": 2.63, "1945": 2.74, "1946": 2.99, "1947": 3.08, "1948": 2.99, "1949": 2.99, "1950": 3.07, "1951": 3.06, "1952": 3.18, "1953": 3.19, "1954": 3.19, "1955": 3.28, "1956": 3.33, "1957": 3.42, "1958": 3.42, "1959": 3.44, "1960": 3.45, "1961": 3.55, "1962": 3.43, "1963": 3.34, "1964": 3.15, "1965": 2.97, "1966": 2.89, "1967": 2.85, "1968": 2.89, "1969": 2.89, "1970": 2.86, "1971": 2.95, "1972": 2.74, "1973": 2.49, "1974": 2.32, "1975": 2.15, "1976": 2.06, "1977": 2.01, "1978": 1.95, "1979": 1.91, "1980": 1.89, "1981": 1.94, "1982": 1.92, "1983": 1.93, "1984": 1.9, "1985": 1.89, "1986": 1.85, "1987": 1.85, "1988": 1.85, "1989": 1.84, "1990": 1.87, "1991": 1.88, "1992": 1.86, "1993": 1.86, "1994": 1.85, "1995": 1.85, "1996": 1.79, "1997": 1.8, "1998": 1.77, "1999": 1.78, "2000": 1.77, "2001": 1.76, "2002": 1.76, "2003": 1.75, "2004": 1.77, "2005": 1.81, "2006": 1.85, "2007": 1.97, "2008": 2.0, "2009": 1.98, "2010": 1.97, "2011": 1.93, "2012": 1.93, "2013": 1.92, "2014": 1.86, "2015": 1.83, "2016": 1.81, "2017": 1.75, "2018": 1.7, "2019": 1.67, "2020": 1.62, "2021": 1.66, "2022": 1.69, "2023": 1.55, "2024": 1.49, "2025": 1.52 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/p2026-797917-chart.zip", "definition": "Financial-year TFR used by Treasury/Centre for Population as the history for their assumptions." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2002", "en": "IGR 2002" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости: Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2002 г. (IGR)", "en": "Total fertility rate: Treasury Intergenerational Report 2002" }, "year": 2002, "published": "2002-05-14", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2022": 1.63 }, "src": "https://archive.budget.gov.au/2002-03/bp5/bp5_combined_pdf.zip ; https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2007", "en": "IGR 2007" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости: Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2007 г. (IGR)", "en": "Total fertility rate: Treasury Intergenerational Report 2007" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2007-04-02", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2010": 1.82, "2020": 1.76, "2030": 1.73, "2040": 1.71, "2047": 1.7 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/IGR_2010.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2010", "en": "IGR 2010" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости: Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2010 г. (IGR)", "en": "Total fertility rate: Treasury Intergenerational Report 2010" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2010-02-01", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2010": 1.95, "2013": 1.9, "2014": 1.9, "2015": 1.9, "2016": 1.9, "2017": 1.9, "2018": 1.9, "2019": 1.9, "2020": 1.9, "2021": 1.9, "2022": 1.9, "2023": 1.9, "2024": 1.9, "2025": 1.9, "2026": 1.9, "2027": 1.9, "2028": 1.9, "2029": 1.9, "2030": 1.9, "2031": 1.9, "2032": 1.9, "2033": 1.9, "2034": 1.9, "2035": 1.9, "2036": 1.9, "2037": 1.9, "2038": 1.9, "2039": 1.9, "2040": 1.9, "2041": 1.9, "2042": 1.9, "2043": 1.9, "2044": 1.9, "2045": 1.9, "2046": 1.9, "2047": 1.9, "2048": 1.9, "2049": 1.9, "2050": 1.9 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/IGR_2010.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2015", "en": "IGR 2015" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости: Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2015 г. (IGR)", "en": "Total fertility rate: Treasury Intergenerational Report 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-03-05", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2015": 1.9, "2016": 1.9, "2017": 1.9, "2018": 1.9, "2019": 1.9, "2020": 1.9, "2021": 1.9, "2022": 1.9, "2023": 1.9, "2024": 1.9, "2025": 1.9, "2026": 1.9, "2027": 1.9, "2028": 1.9, "2029": 1.9, "2030": 1.9, "2031": 1.9, "2032": 1.9, "2033": 1.9, "2034": 1.9, "2035": 1.9, "2036": 1.9, "2037": 1.9, "2038": 1.9, "2039": 1.9, "2040": 1.9, "2041": 1.9, "2042": 1.9, "2043": 1.9, "2044": 1.9, "2045": 1.9, "2046": 1.9, "2047": 1.9, "2048": 1.9, "2049": 1.9, "2050": 1.9, "2051": 1.9, "2052": 1.9, "2053": 1.9, "2054": 1.9, "2055": 1.9 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/p2026-797917-chart.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2021", "en": "IGR 2021" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости: Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2021 г. (IGR)", "en": "Total fertility rate: Treasury Intergenerational Report 2021" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2021-06-28", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2021": 1.61, "2022": 1.58, "2023": 1.65, "2024": 1.69, "2025": 1.69, "2026": 1.68, "2027": 1.66, "2028": 1.64, "2029": 1.63, "2030": 1.63, "2031": 1.62, "2032": 1.62, "2033": 1.62, "2034": 1.62, "2035": 1.62, "2036": 1.62, "2037": 1.62, "2038": 1.62, "2039": 1.62, "2040": 1.62, "2041": 1.62, "2042": 1.62, "2043": 1.62, "2044": 1.62, "2045": 1.62, "2046": 1.62, "2047": 1.62, "2048": 1.62, "2049": 1.62, "2050": 1.62, "2051": 1.62, "2052": 1.62, "2053": 1.62, "2054": 1.62, "2055": 1.62, "2056": 1.62, "2057": 1.62, "2058": 1.62, "2059": 1.62, "2060": 1.62, "2061": 1.62 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-07/p2021_182464-cd.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IGR 2023", "en": "IGR 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости: Межпоколенческий доклад Минфина Австралии 2023 г. (IGR)", "en": "Total fertility rate: Treasury Intergenerational Report 2023" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2023-08-24", "variant": "baseline (central)", "values": { "2023": 1.66, "2024": 1.66, "2025": 1.65, "2026": 1.65, "2027": 1.64, "2028": 1.64, "2029": 1.63, "2030": 1.63, "2031": 1.62, "2032": 1.62, "2033": 1.62, "2034": 1.62, "2035": 1.62, "2036": 1.62, "2037": 1.62, "2038": 1.62, "2039": 1.62, "2040": 1.62, "2041": 1.62, "2042": 1.62, "2043": 1.62, "2044": 1.62, "2045": 1.62, "2046": 1.62, "2047": 1.62, "2048": 1.62, "2049": 1.62, "2050": 1.62, "2051": 1.62, "2052": 1.62, "2053": 1.62, "2054": 1.62, "2055": 1.62, "2056": 1.62, "2057": 1.62, "2058": 1.62, "2059": 1.62, "2060": 1.62, "2061": 1.62, "2062": 1.62, "2063": 1.62 }, "src": "https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-09/p2023-435150-cd.zip" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2032 ], "view": "c=AUS&i=tfr,births&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "NOM concept break: from September quarter 2006 the ABS measures NOM with the 12/16-month rule; earlier years use a 12/12-month rule with a category-jumping (later 'migration adjustment') term that was set to zero for 1997-98 to 2000-01. The new method gives materially higher NOM (Treasury IGR 2010: IGR 2007's 110,000 'would have been around 140,000'). ABS projections 1999-2004 and IGR 2002/2007 are on the old concept; ABS 2006+ and IGR 2010+ on the new one.", "Preliminary vs final: preliminary NOM is model-based and is revised for about 18 months (e.g. 2008-09: 285.3 thousand first, 313.3 a year later, 299.8 final; 2022-23: 518.1 first, 538.3 final). The actual series 'abs_nom_fy' is the Mar 2026 vintage (final to Mar 2025 quarter); 'abs_nom_fy_first_estimate' gives the first published figure for each year.", "Projection base data are themselves estimates: e.g. the ABS 1999 edition started from preliminary 1998-99 NOM of 117,300 (now 96.5k), the 2004 edition quoted 117,632 for 2003-04 in text while its cube shows 99,966 (now 100.0k).", "Year bases differ: NOM and births are financial years (July-June, key = end year) everywhere; ABS 1999/2002/2004 fertility assumptions are calendar-year labelled; ABS 2006+ cubes and Treasury/Centre for Population TFRs are financial-year; ABS Births, Australia TFR is by calendar year of registration (abs_tfr_cy). Compare like with like (abs_tfr_fy / treasury_tfr_fy for financial years).", "TFR revisions: ABS financial-year TFR 2024-25 was 1.517 (registration-based, Jun and Dec 2025 releases) and 1.464 after revision to date of occurrence (Mar 2026 release, 17 Sep 2026); Treasury's 2026 IGR still shows 1.52. Registration counts are affected by registry backlogs (notably NSW 2020-2021).", "ABS projections are explicitly 'not predictions or forecasts' (what-if combinations of assumptions); Treasury IGR baselines and Population Statement near-term years are forecasts, long-run years are technical assumptions.", "Population Statement first-column years (e.g. 2019-20 in 2020, 2023-24 in 2024) had already ended but full-year ABS data were not yet released; they are forecasts/nowcasts made with data to about the March quarter.", "IGR 2002/2007/2010/2015 only state long-run constants; values were filled only for years after the stated start (e.g. 'constant at 110,000 from the end of the forward estimates (2009-10)' -> 2010-11 on). Forward-estimate years are left empty where the report does not print them; nothing is interpolated.", "Old ABS PDFs (1999, 2002) and 2004 PDF tables were read with pdftotext and every typed value is re-checked against the page text by the build script; the 2004 publication on the ABS site is the reissue with a 14 Jun 2006 corrigendum.", "Released dates for IGR 2007 (2 Apr 2007), IGR 2010 (1 Feb 2010) and IGR 2015 (5 Mar 2015) are release dates; covers are dated April 2007, January 2010 and March 2015. Population Statement dates are the 'Last updated' dates of the data files on population.gov.au." ] }, { "id": "nzl_migration", "iso3": "NZL", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: в 2005–2026 годах миграция добавила 630 тыс., а прогноз 2004 года ждал 195 тыс.", "en": "New Zealand: the Stats NZ 2004 projection expected net migration of +195k for 2005–2026; the outcome was +630k" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: чистая миграция — прогнозы Stats NZ и факт", "en": "New Zealand: net migration — Stats NZ projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Н. Зеландия · миграция", "en": "New Zealand · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "9 прогнозов Статистики Новой Зеландии против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 8 из 9. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2004 года: за 2005–2026 ждали +195 тыс., вышло +630 тыс. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "9 projections of Stats NZ against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 8 of 9. The largest miss: Stats NZ 2004 expected +195k for 2005–2026; the outcome was +630k. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (Stats NZ, годы до 30 июня)", "en": "Actual (Stats NZ, years to 30 June)" }, "values": { "2002": 55.08, "2003": 56.947, "2004": 24.556, "2005": 11.099, "2006": 13.471, "2007": 14.519, "2008": 12.04, "2009": 16.268, "2010": 8.969, "2011": -9.404, "2012": -14.983, "2013": 0.809, "2014": 33.462, "2015": 53.427, "2016": 64.613, "2017": 59.533, "2018": 48.995, "2019": 52.101, "2020": 84.836, "2021": -6.585, "2022": -17.692, "2023": 106.617, "2024": 70.211, "2025": 10.184, "2026": 17.48 }, "src": "https://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/infoshare/", "definition": "Estimated migrant arrivals minus migrant departures; a migrant is a person who crosses the border and stays in (or is absent from) New Zealand for at least 12 of the following 16 months, based on linked arrival/departure records (outcomes-based). Mean estimate." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2004", "en": "Stats NZ 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2004(base): чистая международная миграция — серия 5 (средняя рождаемость, средняя смертность, средняя миграция) — основная", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2004(base): net international migration — Series 5 (medium fertility/mortality/migration), designated main series" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2004-12-16", "variant": "Series 5 (medium fertility, medium mortality, medium migration: long-run net migration +10,000/yr); Stats NZ designated it the most suitable series", "values": { "2005": 5.0, "2006": 2.0, "2007": 2.0, "2008": 6.0, "2009": 10.0, "2010": 10.0, "2011": 10.0, "2012": 10.0, "2013": 10.0, "2014": 10.0, "2015": 10.0, "2016": 10.0, "2017": 10.0, "2018": 10.0, "2019": 10.0, "2020": 10.0, "2021": 10.0, "2022": 10.0, "2023": 10.0, "2024": 10.0, "2025": 10.0, "2026": 10.0, "2027": 10.0, "2028": 10.0, "2029": 10.0, "2030": 10.0, "2031": 10.0, "2032": 10.0, "2033": 10.0, "2034": 10.0, "2035": 10.0, "2036": 10.0, "2037": 10.0, "2038": 10.0, "2039": 10.0, "2040": 10.0, "2041": 10.0, "2042": 10.0, "2043": 10.0, "2044": 10.0, "2045": 10.0, "2046": 10.0, "2047": 10.0, "2048": 10.0, "2049": 10.0, "2050": 10.0, "2051": 10.0 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP04-51/npp-04-base51-all-tables.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2006", "en": "Stats NZ 2006" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2006(base): чистая международная миграция — серия 5 (средняя рождаемость, средняя смертность, средняя миграция) — основная", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2006(base): net international migration — Series 5 (medium fertility/mortality/migration), designated main series" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2007-10-24", "variant": "Series 5 (medium fertility, medium mortality, medium migration: long-run net migration +10,000/yr); Stats NZ designated it the most suitable series", "values": { "2007": 10.0, "2008": 7.0, "2009": 9.0, "2010": 10.0, "2011": 10.0, "2012": 10.0, "2013": 10.0, "2014": 10.0, "2015": 10.0, "2016": 10.0, "2017": 10.0, "2018": 10.0, "2019": 10.0, "2020": 10.0, "2021": 10.0, "2022": 10.0, "2023": 10.0, "2024": 10.0, "2025": 10.0, "2026": 10.0, "2027": 10.0, "2028": 10.0, "2029": 10.0, "2030": 10.0, "2031": 10.0, "2032": 10.0, "2033": 10.0, "2034": 10.0, "2035": 10.0, "2036": 10.0, "2037": 10.0, "2038": 10.0, "2039": 10.0, "2040": 10.0, "2041": 10.0, "2042": 10.0, "2043": 10.0, "2044": 10.0, "2045": 10.0, "2046": 10.0, "2047": 10.0, "2048": 10.0, "2049": 10.0, "2050": 10.0, "2051": 10.0, "2052": 10.0, "2053": 10.0, "2054": 10.0, "2055": 10.0, "2056": 10.0, "2057": 10.0, "2058": 10.0, "2059": 10.0, "2060": 10.0, "2061": 10.0 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP06-61/npp-2006-all-tables.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2009", "en": "Stats NZ 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2009(base): чистая международная миграция — серия 5 (средняя рождаемость, средняя смертность, средняя миграция) — основная", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2009(base): net international migration — Series 5 (medium fertility/mortality/migration), designated main series" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009-10-27", "variant": "Series 5 (medium fertility, medium mortality, medium migration: long-run net migration +10,000/yr); Stats NZ designated it the most suitable series", "values": { "2010": 25.0, "2011": 19.0, "2012": 14.0, "2013": 10.0, "2014": 10.0, "2015": 10.0, "2016": 10.0, "2017": 10.0, "2018": 10.0, "2019": 10.0, "2020": 10.0, "2021": 10.0, "2022": 10.0, "2023": 10.0, "2024": 10.0, "2025": 10.0, "2026": 10.0, "2027": 10.0, "2028": 10.0, "2029": 10.0, "2030": 10.0, "2031": 10.0, "2032": 10.0, "2033": 10.0, "2034": 10.0, "2035": 10.0, "2036": 10.0, "2037": 10.0, "2038": 10.0, "2039": 10.0, "2040": 10.0, "2041": 10.0, "2042": 10.0, "2043": 10.0, "2044": 10.0, "2045": 10.0, "2046": 10.0, "2047": 10.0, "2048": 10.0, "2049": 10.0, "2050": 10.0, "2051": 10.0, "2052": 10.0, "2053": 10.0, "2054": 10.0, "2055": 10.0, "2056": 10.0, "2057": 10.0, "2058": 10.0, "2059": 10.0, "2060": 10.0, "2061": 10.0 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP09base-61/NPPalltables.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2011", "en": "Stats NZ 2011" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2011(base): чистая международная миграция — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2011(base): net international migration — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2012-07-19", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2012": -3.0, "2013": 0.0, "2014": 7.0, "2015": 12.0, "2016": 12.0, "2017": 12.0, "2018": 12.0, "2019": 12.0, "2020": 12.0, "2021": 12.0, "2022": 12.0, "2023": 12.0, "2024": 12.0, "2025": 12.0, "2026": 12.0, "2027": 12.0, "2028": 12.0, "2029": 12.0, "2030": 12.0, "2031": 12.0, "2032": 12.0, "2033": 12.0, "2034": 12.0, "2035": 12.0, "2036": 12.0, "2037": 12.0, "2038": 12.0, "2039": 12.0, "2040": 12.0, "2041": 12.0, "2042": 12.0, "2043": 12.0, "2044": 12.0, "2045": 12.0, "2046": 12.0, "2047": 12.0, "2048": 12.0, "2049": 12.0, "2050": 12.0, "2051": 12.0, "2052": 12.0, "2053": 12.0, "2054": 12.0, "2055": 12.0, "2056": 12.0, "2057": 12.0, "2058": 12.0, "2059": 12.0, "2060": 12.0, "2061": 12.0 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP2011/npp11-table.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2014", "en": "Stats NZ 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2014(base): чистая международная миграция — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2014(base): net international migration — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-11-28", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2015": 54.0, "2016": 33.0, "2017": 12.0, "2018": 12.0, "2019": 12.0, "2020": 12.0, "2021": 12.0, "2022": 12.0, "2023": 12.0, "2024": 12.0, "2025": 12.0, "2026": 12.0, "2027": 12.0, "2028": 12.0, "2029": 12.0, "2030": 12.0, "2031": 12.0, "2032": 12.0, "2033": 12.0, "2034": 12.0, "2035": 12.0, "2036": 12.0, "2037": 12.0, "2038": 12.0, "2039": 12.0, "2040": 12.0, "2041": 12.0, "2042": 12.0, "2043": 12.0, "2044": 12.0, "2045": 12.0, "2046": 12.0, "2047": 12.0, "2048": 12.0, "2049": 12.0, "2050": 12.0, "2051": 12.0, "2052": 12.0, "2053": 12.0, "2054": 12.0, "2055": 12.0, "2056": 12.0, "2057": 12.0, "2058": 12.0, "2059": 12.0, "2060": 12.0, "2061": 12.0, "2062": 12.0, "2063": 12.0, "2064": 12.0, "2065": 12.0, "2066": 12.0, "2067": 12.0, "2068": 12.0 }, "src": "http://stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP2014/npp14-table.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2016", "en": "Stats NZ 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2016(base): чистая международная миграция — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2016(base): net international migration — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-10-19", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2017": 60.0, "2018": 51.0, "2019": 42.0, "2020": 33.0, "2021": 24.0, "2022": 15.0, "2023": 15.0, "2024": 15.0, "2025": 15.0, "2026": 15.0, "2027": 15.0, "2028": 15.0, "2029": 15.0, "2030": 15.0, "2031": 15.0, "2032": 15.0, "2033": 15.0, "2034": 15.0, "2035": 15.0, "2036": 15.0, "2037": 15.0, "2038": 15.0, "2039": 15.0, "2040": 15.0, "2041": 15.0, "2042": 15.0, "2043": 15.0, "2044": 15.0, "2045": 15.0, "2046": 15.0, "2047": 15.0, "2048": 15.0, "2049": 15.0, "2050": 15.0, "2051": 15.0, "2052": 15.0, "2053": 15.0, "2054": 15.0, "2055": 15.0, "2056": 15.0, "2057": 15.0, "2058": 15.0, "2059": 15.0, "2060": 15.0, "2061": 15.0, "2062": 15.0, "2063": 15.0, "2064": 15.0, "2065": 15.0, "2066": 15.0, "2067": 15.0, "2068": 15.0 }, "src": "https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/National-population-projections/National-population-projections-2016base-2068/Download-data/npp16-table2.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2020", "en": "Stats NZ 2020" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2020(base): чистая международная миграция — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2020(base): net international migration — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-12-08", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2021": 10.0, "2022": 20.0, "2023": 25.0, "2024": 25.0, "2025": 25.0, "2026": 25.0, "2027": 25.0, "2028": 25.0, "2029": 25.0, "2030": 25.0, "2031": 25.0, "2032": 25.0, "2033": 25.0, "2034": 25.0, "2035": 25.0, "2036": 25.0, "2037": 25.0, "2038": 25.0, "2039": 25.0, "2040": 25.0, "2041": 25.0, "2042": 25.0, "2043": 25.0, "2044": 25.0, "2045": 25.0, "2046": 25.0, "2047": 25.0, "2048": 25.0, "2049": 25.0, "2050": 25.0, "2051": 25.0, "2052": 25.0, "2053": 25.0, "2054": 25.0, "2055": 25.0, "2056": 25.0, "2057": 25.0, "2058": 25.0, "2059": 25.0, "2060": 25.0, "2061": 25.0, "2062": 25.0, "2063": 25.0, "2064": 25.0, "2065": 25.0, "2066": 25.0, "2067": 25.0, "2068": 25.0, "2069": 25.0, "2070": 25.0, "2071": 25.0, "2072": 25.0, "2073": 25.0 }, "src": "https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/National-population-projections/National-population-projections-2020base2073/Download-data/national-population-projections-2020base-2073.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2022", "en": "Stats NZ 2022" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2022(base): чистая международная миграция — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2022(base): net international migration — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-07-27", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2023": -2.0, "2024": 7.0, "2025": 16.0, "2026": 25.0, "2027": 25.0, "2028": 25.0, "2029": 25.0, "2030": 25.0, "2031": 25.0, "2032": 25.0, "2033": 25.0, "2034": 25.0, "2035": 25.0, "2036": 25.0, "2037": 25.0, "2038": 25.0, "2039": 25.0, "2040": 25.0, "2041": 25.0, "2042": 25.0, "2043": 25.0, "2044": 25.0, "2045": 25.0, "2046": 25.0, "2047": 25.0, "2048": 25.0, "2049": 25.0, "2050": 25.0, "2051": 25.0, "2052": 25.0, "2053": 25.0, "2054": 25.0, "2055": 25.0, "2056": 25.0, "2057": 25.0, "2058": 25.0, "2059": 25.0, "2060": 25.0, "2061": 25.0, "2062": 25.0, "2063": 25.0, "2064": 25.0, "2065": 25.0, "2066": 25.0, "2067": 25.0, "2068": 25.0, "2069": 25.0, "2070": 25.0, "2071": 25.0, "2072": 25.0, "2073": 25.0 }, "src": "https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/national-population-projections-2022base-2073.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2024", "en": "Stats NZ 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2024(base): чистая международная миграция — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2024(base): net international migration — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2025-06-04", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2025": 25.0, "2026": 30.0, "2027": 32.5, "2028": 34.5, "2029": 36.0, "2030": 37.0, "2031": 37.5, "2032": 37.8, "2033": 38.0, "2034": 38.3, "2035": 38.5, "2036": 38.8, "2037": 39.0, "2038": 39.3, "2039": 39.5, "2040": 39.8, "2041": 40.0, "2042": 40.3, "2043": 40.5, "2044": 40.8, "2045": 41.0, "2046": 41.3, "2047": 41.5, "2048": 41.8, "2049": 42.0, "2050": 42.3, "2051": 42.5, "2052": 42.8, "2053": 43.0, "2054": 43.3, "2055": 43.5, "2056": 43.8, "2057": 44.0, "2058": 44.3, "2059": 44.5, "2060": 44.8, "2061": 45.0, "2062": 45.3, "2063": 45.5, "2064": 45.8, "2065": 46.0, "2066": 46.3, "2067": 46.5, "2068": 46.8, "2069": 47.0, "2070": 47.3, "2071": 47.5, "2072": 47.8, "2073": 48.0, "2074": 48.3, "2075": 48.5, "2076": 48.8, "2077": 49.0, "2078": 49.3 }, "src": "https://explore.data.stats.govt.nz/vis?df[ds]=ds-nsiws-disseminate&df[id]=POPPR_NAT_009&df[ag]=STATSNZ&df[vs]=1.0&dq=P50..NETMIG&ly[rw]=YEAR_POPPR_NAT_009&to[TIME]=false" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2032 ], "view": "c=NZL&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Year basis: all projection and actual series here use years ended 30 June (key = end year); population is as at 30 June.", "Bases 2004, 2006 and 2009 are deterministic: Series 5 (medium fertility, medium mortality, long-run net migration +10,000) was designated by Stats NZ as the most suitable series. From the 2011 base the projections are stochastic and the median (50th percentile) is used; 5th/25th/75th/95th percentiles and scenarios are in other_scenarios where published.", "Net migration concept changed: projections up to the 2016 base framed migration on the permanent & long-term (PLT, intentions-based) measure used in population estimates at the time; from the 2020 base on the outcomes-based 12/16-month-rule measure. The primary actual (statsnz_netmig_june) is outcomes-based from June 2002; PLT net migration (to June 2018) is included only as context.", "Several values are flagged in value_sources as \"stated constant\" (e.g. \"+10,000 from 2009\", \"1.65 throughout\") or, for the 2016 base, derived from an explicit annual rule (\"decreases by 9,000 annually\"): these are Stats NZ statements, not interpolations. No year between unstated points is filled.", "Older bases (2004-2014) were removed from stats.govt.nz (now \"available on request\"); their files are the original Stats NZ files retrieved from the Internet Archive (original URL in source_url, archive URL in retrieved_via). The 2016-2024 files are live on stats.govt.nz; the 2024-base annual series come from Aotearoa Data Explorer (NZ.Stat, which held annual tables for 2016-2022 bases, was retired in 2024 and the old-base tables were not migrated, so those bases have only summary-table years).", "Projected births and population in the summary tables are rounded (births to whole thousands; 2024-base ADE values to 100). Actual births are registrations (randomly rounded), TFR uses current ERP denominators, and ERP has been revised after each census, so small gaps can reflect revisions rather than forecast error.", "Recent actuals are provisional: net migration June 2025 and 2026 (final ~17 months after the reference month), TFR 2025-2026, ERP 2025-2026. Net migration revisions have been large (see vintages in statsnz_netmig_june)." ] }, { "id": "nzl_tfr", "iso3": "NZL", "section": "demography", "metric": "tfr", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "ребёнка на женщину", "en": "children per woman", "dec": 2 }, "headline": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: прогноз 2011 года ждал 1,93 ребёнка на женщину на 2026 год — вышло 1,51", "en": "New Zealand: the Stats NZ 2011 projection expected fertility of 1.93 for 2026; the outcome was 1.51" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: рождаемость — прогнозы Stats NZ и факт", "en": "New Zealand: fertility — Stats NZ projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Н. Зеландия · рождаемость", "en": "New Zealand · fertility" }, "note": { "ru": "9 прогнозов Статистики Новой Зеландии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 9 из 9, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2011 года: ждал на 2026 год 1,93 ребёнка на женщину, вышло 1,51 (−21,8%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "9 projections of Stats NZ checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 9 of 9, above in 0. The largest miss: Stats NZ 2011 expected 1.93 for 2026; the outcome was 1.51 (−21.8%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (Stats NZ, годы до 30 июня)", "en": "Actual (Stats NZ, years to 30 June)" }, "values": { "1977": 2.26, "1978": 2.14, "1979": 2.11, "1980": 2.08, "1981": 2.04, "1982": 1.96, "1983": 1.93, "1984": 1.92, "1985": 1.94, "1986": 1.94, "1987": 2.0, "1988": 2.08, "1989": 2.1, "1990": 2.16, "1991": 2.18, "1992": 2.11, "1993": 2.04, "1994": 2.01, "1995": 2.0, "1996": 1.95, "1997": 1.95, "1998": 1.93, "1999": 1.92, "2000": 2.02, "2001": 1.97, "2002": 1.9, "2003": 1.9, "2004": 1.98, "2005": 1.98, "2006": 1.98, "2007": 2.09, "2008": 2.18, "2009": 2.15, "2010": 2.18, "2011": 2.13, "2012": 2.09, "2013": 2.05, "2014": 1.99, "2015": 1.97, "2016": 1.89, "2017": 1.8, "2018": 1.81, "2019": 1.71, "2020": 1.66, "2021": 1.62, "2022": 1.7, "2023": 1.62, "2024": 1.55, "2025": 1.57, "2026": 1.51 }, "src": "https://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/infoshare/", "definition": "Average number of live births a woman would have if she experienced the period age-specific fertility rates; registration-based births over resident population." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2004", "en": "Stats NZ 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2004(base): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости — серия 5 (средняя рождаемость, средняя смертность, средняя миграция) — основная", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2004(base): total fertility rate — Series 5 (medium fertility/mortality/migration), designated main series" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2004-12-16", "variant": "Series 5 (medium fertility variant)", "values": { "2006": 2.0, "2011": 1.92, "2016": 1.85, "2017": 1.85, "2018": 1.85, "2019": 1.85, "2020": 1.85, "2021": 1.85, "2022": 1.85, "2023": 1.85, "2024": 1.85, "2025": 1.85, "2026": 1.85, "2027": 1.85, "2028": 1.85, "2029": 1.85, "2030": 1.85, "2031": 1.85, "2032": 1.85, "2033": 1.85, "2034": 1.85, "2035": 1.85, "2036": 1.85, "2037": 1.85, "2038": 1.85, "2039": 1.85, "2040": 1.85, "2041": 1.85, "2042": 1.85, "2043": 1.85, "2044": 1.85, "2045": 1.85, "2046": 1.85, "2047": 1.85, "2048": 1.85, "2049": 1.85, "2050": 1.85, "2051": 1.85 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP04-51/nationalpopulationprojections04base51hotp.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2006", "en": "Stats NZ 2006" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2006(base): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости — серия 5 (средняя рождаемость, средняя смертность, средняя миграция) — основная", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2006(base): total fertility rate — Series 5 (medium fertility/mortality/migration), designated main series" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2007-10-24", "variant": "Series 5 (medium fertility variant)", "values": { "2026": 1.9, "2027": 1.9, "2028": 1.9, "2029": 1.9, "2030": 1.9, "2031": 1.9, "2032": 1.9, "2033": 1.9, "2034": 1.9, "2035": 1.9, "2036": 1.9, "2037": 1.9, "2038": 1.9, "2039": 1.9, "2040": 1.9, "2041": 1.9, "2042": 1.9, "2043": 1.9, "2044": 1.9, "2045": 1.9, "2046": 1.9, "2047": 1.9, "2048": 1.9, "2049": 1.9, "2050": 1.9, "2051": 1.9, "2052": 1.9, "2053": 1.9, "2054": 1.9, "2055": 1.9, "2056": 1.9, "2057": 1.9, "2058": 1.9, "2059": 1.9, "2060": 1.9, "2061": 1.9 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP06-61/nationalpopulationprojections2006basehotp.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2009", "en": "Stats NZ 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2009(base): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости — серия 5 (средняя рождаемость, средняя смертность, средняя миграция) — основная", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2009(base): total fertility rate — Series 5 (medium fertility/mortality/migration), designated main series" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009-10-27", "variant": "Series 5 (medium fertility variant)", "values": { "2026": 1.9, "2027": 1.9, "2028": 1.9, "2029": 1.9, "2030": 1.9, "2031": 1.9, "2032": 1.9, "2033": 1.9, "2034": 1.9, "2035": 1.9, "2036": 1.9, "2037": 1.9, "2038": 1.9, "2039": 1.9, "2040": 1.9, "2041": 1.9, "2042": 1.9, "2043": 1.9, "2044": 1.9, "2045": 1.9, "2046": 1.9, "2047": 1.9, "2048": 1.9, "2049": 1.9, "2050": 1.9, "2051": 1.9, "2052": 1.9, "2053": 1.9, "2054": 1.9, "2055": 1.9, "2056": 1.9, "2057": 1.9, "2058": 1.9, "2059": 1.9, "2060": 1.9, "2061": 1.9 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP09base-61/NationalPopulationProjections09base-61HOTP.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2011", "en": "Stats NZ 2011" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2011(base): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2011(base): total fertility rate — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2012-07-19", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2012": 2.05, "2016": 2.0, "2021": 1.96, "2026": 1.93, "2031": 1.91, "2036": 1.9, "2037": 1.9, "2038": 1.9, "2039": 1.9, "2040": 1.9, "2041": 1.9, "2042": 1.9, "2043": 1.9, "2044": 1.9, "2045": 1.9, "2046": 1.9, "2047": 1.9, "2048": 1.9, "2049": 1.9, "2050": 1.9, "2051": 1.9, "2052": 1.9, "2053": 1.9, "2054": 1.9, "2055": 1.9, "2056": 1.9, "2057": 1.9, "2058": 1.9, "2059": 1.9, "2060": 1.9, "2061": 1.9 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP2011/npp11-table.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2014", "en": "Stats NZ 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2014(base): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2014(base): total fertility rate — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-11-28", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2015": 1.95, "2018": 1.93, "2023": 1.92, "2025": 1.91, "2028": 1.91, "2033": 1.9, "2036": 1.9, "2037": 1.9, "2038": 1.9, "2039": 1.9, "2040": 1.9, "2041": 1.9, "2042": 1.9, "2043": 1.9, "2044": 1.9, "2045": 1.9, "2046": 1.9, "2047": 1.9, "2048": 1.9, "2049": 1.9, "2050": 1.9, "2051": 1.9, "2052": 1.9, "2053": 1.9, "2054": 1.9, "2055": 1.9, "2056": 1.9, "2057": 1.9, "2058": 1.9, "2059": 1.9, "2060": 1.9, "2061": 1.9, "2062": 1.9, "2063": 1.9, "2064": 1.9, "2065": 1.9, "2066": 1.9, "2067": 1.9, "2068": 1.9 }, "src": "http://stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP2014/npp14-table.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2016", "en": "Stats NZ 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2016(base): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2016(base): total fertility rate — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-10-19", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2017": 1.9, "2018": 1.89, "2023": 1.87, "2025": 1.87, "2028": 1.86, "2033": 1.85, "2036": 1.85, "2037": 1.85, "2038": 1.85, "2039": 1.85, "2040": 1.85, "2041": 1.85, "2042": 1.85, "2043": 1.85, "2044": 1.85, "2045": 1.85, "2046": 1.85, "2047": 1.85, "2048": 1.85, "2049": 1.85, "2050": 1.85, "2051": 1.85, "2052": 1.85, "2053": 1.85, "2054": 1.85, "2055": 1.85, "2056": 1.85, "2057": 1.85, "2058": 1.85, "2059": 1.85, "2060": 1.85, "2061": 1.85, "2062": 1.85, "2063": 1.85, "2064": 1.85, "2065": 1.85, "2066": 1.85, "2067": 1.85, "2068": 1.85 }, "src": "https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/National-population-projections/National-population-projections-2016base-2068/Download-data/npp16-table2.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2020", "en": "Stats NZ 2020" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2020(base): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2020(base): total fertility rate — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-12-08", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2021": 1.65, "2022": 1.65, "2023": 1.65, "2024": 1.65, "2025": 1.65, "2026": 1.65, "2027": 1.65, "2028": 1.65, "2029": 1.65, "2030": 1.65, "2031": 1.65, "2032": 1.65, "2033": 1.65, "2034": 1.65, "2035": 1.65, "2036": 1.65, "2037": 1.65, "2038": 1.65, "2039": 1.65, "2040": 1.65, "2041": 1.65, "2042": 1.65, "2043": 1.65, "2044": 1.65, "2045": 1.65, "2046": 1.65, "2047": 1.65, "2048": 1.65, "2049": 1.65, "2050": 1.65, "2051": 1.65, "2052": 1.65, "2053": 1.65, "2054": 1.65, "2055": 1.65, "2056": 1.65, "2057": 1.65, "2058": 1.65, "2059": 1.65, "2060": 1.65, "2061": 1.65, "2062": 1.65, "2063": 1.65, "2064": 1.65, "2065": 1.65, "2066": 1.65, "2067": 1.65, "2068": 1.65, "2069": 1.65, "2070": 1.65, "2071": 1.65, "2072": 1.65, "2073": 1.65 }, "src": "https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/National-population-projections/National-population-projections-2020base2073/Download-data/national-population-projections-2020base-2073.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2022", "en": "Stats NZ 2022" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2022(base): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2022(base): total fertility rate — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-07-27", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2023": 1.7, "2028": 1.67, "2033": 1.66, "2038": 1.65, "2042": 1.65, "2043": 1.65, "2044": 1.65, "2045": 1.65, "2046": 1.65, "2047": 1.65, "2048": 1.65, "2049": 1.65, "2050": 1.65, "2051": 1.65, "2052": 1.65, "2053": 1.65, "2054": 1.65, "2055": 1.65, "2056": 1.65, "2057": 1.65, "2058": 1.65, "2059": 1.65, "2060": 1.65, "2061": 1.65, "2062": 1.65, "2063": 1.65, "2064": 1.65, "2065": 1.65, "2066": 1.65, "2067": 1.65, "2068": 1.65, "2069": 1.65, "2070": 1.65, "2071": 1.65, "2072": 1.65, "2073": 1.65 }, "src": "https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/national-population-projections-2022base-2073.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2024", "en": "Stats NZ 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2024(base): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2024(base): total fertility rate — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2025-06-04", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2025": 1.59, "2026": 1.58, "2027": 1.58, "2028": 1.58, "2029": 1.58, "2030": 1.58, "2031": 1.57, "2032": 1.57, "2033": 1.57, "2034": 1.57, "2035": 1.57, "2036": 1.56, "2037": 1.56, "2038": 1.56, "2039": 1.56, "2040": 1.56, "2041": 1.56, "2042": 1.56, "2043": 1.56, "2044": 1.55, "2045": 1.55, "2046": 1.55, "2047": 1.55, "2048": 1.55, "2049": 1.55, "2050": 1.55, "2051": 1.55, "2052": 1.55, "2053": 1.55, "2054": 1.55, "2055": 1.55, "2056": 1.55, "2057": 1.55, "2058": 1.55, "2059": 1.55, "2060": 1.55, "2061": 1.55, "2062": 1.55, "2063": 1.55, "2064": 1.55, "2065": 1.55, "2066": 1.55, "2067": 1.55, "2068": 1.55, "2069": 1.55, "2070": 1.55, "2071": 1.55, "2072": 1.55, "2073": 1.55, "2074": 1.55, "2075": 1.55, "2076": 1.55, "2077": 1.55, "2078": 1.55 }, "src": "https://explore.data.stats.govt.nz/vis?df[ds]=ds-nsiws-disseminate&df[id]=POPPR_NAT_009&df[ag]=STATSNZ&df[vs]=1.0&dq=P50..TFR&ly[rw]=YEAR_POPPR_NAT_009&to[TIME]=false" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2032 ], "view": "c=NZL&i=tfr,births&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Year basis: all projection and actual series here use years ended 30 June (key = end year); population is as at 30 June.", "Bases 2004, 2006 and 2009 are deterministic: Series 5 (medium fertility, medium mortality, long-run net migration +10,000) was designated by Stats NZ as the most suitable series. From the 2011 base the projections are stochastic and the median (50th percentile) is used; 5th/25th/75th/95th percentiles and scenarios are in other_scenarios where published.", "Net migration concept changed: projections up to the 2016 base framed migration on the permanent & long-term (PLT, intentions-based) measure used in population estimates at the time; from the 2020 base on the outcomes-based 12/16-month-rule measure. The primary actual (statsnz_netmig_june) is outcomes-based from June 2002; PLT net migration (to June 2018) is included only as context.", "Several values are flagged in value_sources as \"stated constant\" (e.g. \"+10,000 from 2009\", \"1.65 throughout\") or, for the 2016 base, derived from an explicit annual rule (\"decreases by 9,000 annually\"): these are Stats NZ statements, not interpolations. No year between unstated points is filled.", "Older bases (2004-2014) were removed from stats.govt.nz (now \"available on request\"); their files are the original Stats NZ files retrieved from the Internet Archive (original URL in source_url, archive URL in retrieved_via). The 2016-2024 files are live on stats.govt.nz; the 2024-base annual series come from Aotearoa Data Explorer (NZ.Stat, which held annual tables for 2016-2022 bases, was retired in 2024 and the old-base tables were not migrated, so those bases have only summary-table years).", "Projected births and population in the summary tables are rounded (births to whole thousands; 2024-base ADE values to 100). Actual births are registrations (randomly rounded), TFR uses current ERP denominators, and ERP has been revised after each census, so small gaps can reflect revisions rather than forecast error.", "Recent actuals are provisional: net migration June 2025 and 2026 (final ~17 months after the reference month), TFR 2025-2026, ERP 2025-2026. Net migration revisions have been large (see vintages in statsnz_netmig_june)." ] }, { "id": "nzl_population", "iso3": "NZL", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: прогноз 2004 года ждал население 4,73 млн на 2026 год — вышло 5,36 млн", "en": "New Zealand: the Stats NZ 2004 projection expected a population of 4.73M for 2026; the outcome was 5.36M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: население — прогнозы Stats NZ и факт", "en": "New Zealand: population — Stats NZ projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Н. Зеландия · население", "en": "New Zealand · population" }, "note": { "ru": "9 прогнозов Статистики Новой Зеландии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 9, выше — в 7. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2004 года: ждал на 2026 год 4,73 млн, вышло 5,36 млн (+13,3%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "9 projections of Stats NZ checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 9, above in 7. The largest miss: Stats NZ 2004 expected 4.73M for 2026; the outcome was 5.36M (+13.3%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (Stats NZ, на 30 июня)", "en": "Actual (Stats NZ, 30 June)" }, "values": { "1991": 3495.1, "1992": 3531.7, "1993": 3572.2, "1994": 3620.0, "1995": 3673.4, "1996": 3732.0, "1997": 3781.3, "1998": 3815.0, "1999": 3835.1, "2000": 3857.7, "2001": 3880.5, "2002": 3948.5, "2003": 4027.2, "2004": 4087.5, "2005": 4133.9, "2006": 4184.6, "2007": 4223.8, "2008": 4259.8, "2009": 4302.6, "2010": 4350.7, "2011": 4384.0, "2012": 4408.1, "2013": 4442.1, "2014": 4516.5, "2015": 4609.4, "2016": 4714.1, "2017": 4813.6, "2018": 4900.6, "2019": 4970.3, "2020": 5072.4, "2021": 5084.6, "2022": 5081.7, "2023": 5200.0, "2024": 5289.9, "2025": 5321.0, "2026": 5357.3 }, "src": "https://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/infoshare/", "definition": "Estimated resident population (ERP), total all ages, as at 30 June." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2004", "en": "Stats NZ 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2004(base): численность населения на 30 июня — серия 5 (средняя рождаемость, средняя смертность, средняя миграция) — основная", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2004(base): population at 30 June — Series 5 (medium fertility/mortality/migration), designated main series" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2004-12-16", "variant": "Series 5", "values": { "2005": 4096.0, "2006": 4127.0, "2007": 4156.0, "2008": 4188.0, "2009": 4224.0, "2010": 4258.0, "2011": 4292.0, "2016": 4448.0, "2021": 4594.0, "2026": 4730.0, "2031": 4847.0, "2036": 4938.0, "2041": 5001.0, "2046": 5035.0, "2051": 5047.0 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP04-51/npp-04-base51-all-tables.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2006", "en": "Stats NZ 2006" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2006(base): численность населения на 30 июня — серия 5 (средняя рождаемость, средняя смертность, средняя миграция) — основная", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2006(base): population at 30 June — Series 5 (medium fertility/mortality/migration), designated main series" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2007-10-24", "variant": "Series 5", "values": { "2007": 4228.0, "2008": 4268.0, "2009": 4310.0, "2010": 4352.0, "2011": 4393.0, "2016": 4589.0, "2021": 4771.0, "2026": 4939.0, "2031": 5090.0, "2036": 5218.0, "2041": 5325.0, "2046": 5413.0, "2051": 5481.0, "2056": 5531.0, "2061": 5571.0 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP06-61/npp-2006-all-tables.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2009", "en": "Stats NZ 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2009(base): численность населения на 30 июня — серия 5 (средняя рождаемость, средняя смертность, средняя миграция) — основная", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2009(base): population at 30 June — Series 5 (medium fertility/mortality/migration), designated main series" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009-10-27", "variant": "Series 5", "values": { "2010": 4374.0, "2011": 4425.0, "2016": 4631.0, "2021": 4818.0, "2026": 4992.0, "2031": 5149.0, "2036": 5284.0, "2041": 5402.0, "2046": 5506.0, "2051": 5597.0, "2056": 5678.0, "2061": 5755.0 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP09base-61/NPPalltables.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2011", "en": "Stats NZ 2011" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2011(base): численность населения на 30 июня — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2011(base): population at 30 June — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2012-07-19", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2016": 4586.0, "2021": 4798.0, "2026": 5004.0, "2031": 5195.0, "2036": 5362.0, "2041": 5511.0, "2046": 5646.0, "2051": 5767.0, "2056": 5882.0, "2061": 5995.0 }, "src": "http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP2011/npp11-table.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2014", "en": "Stats NZ 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2014(base): численность населения на 30 июня — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2014(base): population at 30 June — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-11-28", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2018": 4738.0, "2023": 4949.0, "2028": 5153.0, "2033": 5338.0, "2038": 5499.0, "2043": 5639.0, "2048": 5761.0, "2053": 5869.0, "2058": 5970.0, "2063": 6070.0, "2068": 6175.0 }, "src": "http://stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/NationalPopulationProjections/HOTP2014/npp14-table.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2016", "en": "Stats NZ 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2016(base): численность населения на 30 июня — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2016(base): population at 30 June — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-10-19", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2018": 4865.0, "2023": 5158.0, "2028": 5390.0, "2033": 5595.0, "2038": 5770.0, "2043": 5923.0, "2048": 6061.0, "2053": 6185.0, "2058": 6300.0, "2063": 6409.0, "2068": 6516.0 }, "src": "https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/National-population-projections/National-population-projections-2016base-2068/Download-data/npp16-table2.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2020", "en": "Stats NZ 2020" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2020(base): численность населения на 30 июня — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2020(base): population at 30 June — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-12-08", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2021": 5129.0, "2022": 5173.0, "2023": 5222.0, "2028": 5460.0, "2033": 5679.0, "2038": 5876.0, "2043": 6056.0, "2048": 6216.0, "2053": 6353.0, "2058": 6474.0, "2063": 6587.0, "2068": 6699.0, "2073": 6806.0 }, "src": "https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/National-population-projections/National-population-projections-2020base2073/Download-data/national-population-projections-2020base-2073.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2022", "en": "Stats NZ 2022" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2022(base): численность населения на 30 июня — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2022(base): population at 30 June — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-07-27", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2023": 5149.0, "2028": 5354.0, "2033": 5564.0, "2038": 5753.0, "2043": 5924.0, "2048": 6077.0, "2053": 6209.0, "2058": 6326.0, "2063": 6435.0, "2068": 6542.0, "2073": 6644.0 }, "src": "https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/national-population-projections-2022base-2073.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Stats NZ 2024", "en": "Stats NZ 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Stats NZ, прогноз населения 2024(base): численность населения на 30 июня — медиана (50-й перцентиль) стохастического прогноза", "en": "Stats NZ national population projections 2024(base): population at 30 June — median (50th percentile) of stochastic projection" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2025-06-04", "variant": "median (50th percentile) of the stochastic projection", "values": { "2025": 5336.7, "2026": 5387.7, "2027": 5440.6, "2028": 5494.8, "2029": 5549.6, "2030": 5604.7, "2031": 5659.5, "2032": 5713.7, "2033": 5767.3, "2034": 5820.5, "2035": 5873.2, "2036": 5925.6, "2037": 5977.6, "2038": 6029.4, "2039": 6080.9, "2040": 6132.1, "2041": 6183.2, "2042": 6233.9, "2043": 6284.4, "2044": 6334.5, "2045": 6384.2, "2046": 6433.5, "2047": 6482.2, "2048": 6530.4, "2049": 6578.0, "2050": 6625.0, "2051": 6671.5, "2052": 6717.3, "2053": 6762.7, "2054": 6807.5, "2055": 6852.0, "2056": 6896.1, "2057": 6939.9, "2058": 6983.5, "2059": 7027.0, "2060": 7070.4, "2061": 7113.7, "2062": 7157.0, "2063": 7200.4, "2064": 7243.8, "2065": 7287.3, "2066": 7330.8, "2067": 7374.4, "2068": 7417.9, "2069": 7461.4, "2070": 7504.7, "2071": 7547.7, "2072": 7590.4, "2073": 7632.6, "2074": 7674.1, "2075": 7715.1, "2076": 7755.3, "2077": 7794.7, "2078": 7833.3 }, "src": "https://explore.data.stats.govt.nz/vis?df[ds]=ds-nsiws-disseminate&df[id]=POPPR_NAT_008&df[ag]=STATSNZ&df[vs]=1.0&dq=P50..TOTPOP&ly[rw]=YEAR_POPPR_NAT_008&to[TIME]=false" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2032 ], "view": "c=NZL&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Year basis: all projection and actual series here use years ended 30 June (key = end year); population is as at 30 June.", "Bases 2004, 2006 and 2009 are deterministic: Series 5 (medium fertility, medium mortality, long-run net migration +10,000) was designated by Stats NZ as the most suitable series. From the 2011 base the projections are stochastic and the median (50th percentile) is used; 5th/25th/75th/95th percentiles and scenarios are in other_scenarios where published.", "Net migration concept changed: projections up to the 2016 base framed migration on the permanent & long-term (PLT, intentions-based) measure used in population estimates at the time; from the 2020 base on the outcomes-based 12/16-month-rule measure. The primary actual (statsnz_netmig_june) is outcomes-based from June 2002; PLT net migration (to June 2018) is included only as context.", "Several values are flagged in value_sources as \"stated constant\" (e.g. \"+10,000 from 2009\", \"1.65 throughout\") or, for the 2016 base, derived from an explicit annual rule (\"decreases by 9,000 annually\"): these are Stats NZ statements, not interpolations. No year between unstated points is filled.", "Older bases (2004-2014) were removed from stats.govt.nz (now \"available on request\"); their files are the original Stats NZ files retrieved from the Internet Archive (original URL in source_url, archive URL in retrieved_via). The 2016-2024 files are live on stats.govt.nz; the 2024-base annual series come from Aotearoa Data Explorer (NZ.Stat, which held annual tables for 2016-2022 bases, was retired in 2024 and the old-base tables were not migrated, so those bases have only summary-table years).", "Projected births and population in the summary tables are rounded (births to whole thousands; 2024-base ADE values to 100). Actual births are registrations (randomly rounded), TFR uses current ERP denominators, and ERP has been revised after each census, so small gaps can reflect revisions rather than forecast error.", "Recent actuals are provisional: net migration June 2025 and 2026 (final ~17 months after the reference month), TFR 2025-2026, ERP 2025-2026. Net migration revisions have been large (see vintages in statsnz_netmig_june)." ] }, { "id": "bra_population", "iso3": "BRA", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Бразилия: прогноз 2004 года ждал население 223,1 млн на 2022 год — вышло 210,9 млн", "en": "Brazil: the IBGE 2004 projection expected a population of 223.1M for 2022; the outcome was 210.9M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Бразилия: население — прогнозы IBGE и факт", "en": "Brazil: population — IBGE projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Бразилия · население", "en": "Brazil · population" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов статистического ведомства Бразилии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 4 из 5, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2004 года: ждал на 2022 год 223,1 млн, вышло 210,9 млн (−5,5%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "5 projections of IBGE (the Brazilian statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 4 of 5, above in 1. The largest miss: IBGE 2004 expected 223.1M for 2022; the outcome was 210.9M (−5.5%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка IBGE 2024 года (с учётом переписи 2022)", "en": "IBGE 2024 estimates (after the 2022 census)" }, "values": { "2000": 174695.935, "2001": 177003.743, "2002": 179228.254, "2003": 181377.654, "2004": 183469.593, "2005": 185518.369, "2006": 187535.03, "2007": 189458.827, "2008": 191335.196, "2009": 193174.036, "2010": 194749.329, "2011": 196158.61, "2012": 197670.62, "2013": 199226.702, "2014": 200811.131, "2015": 202403.642, "2016": 203871.925, "2017": 205211.557, "2018": 206529.038, "2019": 207900.099, "2020": 209164.889, "2021": 210103.642, "2022": 210862.983 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2024/projecoes_2024_tab4_indicadores.xlsx", "definition": "Population on 1 July estimated in the IBGE Projections Revision 2024 (Census 2022 adjusted with the post-enumeration survey and demographically conciliated with Censuses 2000 and 2010 and vital records)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2001", "en": "IBGE 2001" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 1 июля, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2000)", "en": "Population on 1 July, IBGE projection (Revision 2000)" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2001-08", "variant": "single published projection (TFT limite 2,06; com migração internacional)", "values": { "2001": 172385.826, "2002": 174632.96, "2003": 176876.443, "2004": 179113.54, "2005": 181341.499, "2006": 183554.255, "2007": 185738.317, "2008": 187885.996, "2009": 189990.983, "2010": 192040.996, "2011": 194039.559, "2012": 195991.828, "2013": 197888.406, "2014": 199727.886, "2015": 201517.47, "2016": 203258.566, "2017": 204944.451, "2018": 206575.869, "2019": 208162.318, "2020": 209705.328, "2021": 211212.834, "2022": 212691.808, "2023": 214141.947, "2024": 215562.532, "2025": 216952.113, "2026": 218309.048, "2027": 219630.78, "2028": 220914.514, "2029": 222158.27, "2030": 223360.169, "2031": 224518.759, "2032": 225632.019, "2033": 226697.915, "2034": 227715.638, "2035": 228685.249, "2036": 229607.58, "2037": 230482.738, "2038": 231310.776, "2039": 232092.861, "2040": 232830.516, "2041": 233525.519, "2042": 234178.77, "2043": 234791.47, "2044": 235366.274, "2045": 235906.297, "2046": 236414.887, "2047": 236893.935, "2048": 237344.39, "2049": 237767.217, "2050": 238162.924 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2000_Projecoes_1980_2050/Taxas_e_Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2000.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2004", "en": "IBGE 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 1 июля, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2004)", "en": "Population on 1 July, IBGE projection (Revision 2004)" }, "year": 2001, "published": "2004-08-30", "variant": "single published projection (TFT limite 1,85; sem migração internacional)", "values": { "2002": 176391.015, "2003": 178985.306, "2004": 181586.03, "2005": 184184.264, "2006": 186770.562, "2007": 189335.118, "2008": 191869.683, "2009": 194370.095, "2010": 196834.086, "2011": 199254.414, "2012": 201625.492, "2013": 203950.099, "2014": 206230.807, "2015": 208468.035, "2016": 210663.93, "2017": 212820.814, "2018": 214941.017, "2019": 217025.858, "2020": 219077.729, "2021": 221098.714, "2022": 223089.661, "2023": 225050.475, "2024": 226979.194, "2025": 228873.717, "2026": 230731.063, "2027": 232547.226, "2028": 234321.464, "2029": 236052.867, "2030": 237737.676, "2031": 239371.493, "2032": 240949.947, "2033": 242469.695, "2034": 243928.059, "2035": 245323.136, "2036": 246652.529, "2037": 247922.296, "2038": 249139.88, "2039": 250305.051, "2040": 251418.006, "2041": 252478.134, "2042": 253484.968, "2043": 254439.554, "2044": 255343.363, "2045": 256198.374, "2046": 257005.525, "2047": 257765.281, "2048": 258478.808, "2049": 259146.835, "2050": 259769.964 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2004_Projecoes_1980_2050/Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2004.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2008", "en": "IBGE 2008" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 1 июля, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2008)", "en": "Population on 1 July, IBGE projection (Revision 2008)" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2008-11-27", "variant": "\"hipótese recomendada\" (TFT limite 1,5; sem migração internacional)", "values": { "2007": 187641.714, "2008": 189612.814, "2009": 191480.63, "2010": 193252.604, "2011": 194932.685, "2012": 196526.293, "2013": 198043.32, "2014": 199492.433, "2015": 200881.685, "2016": 202219.061, "2017": 203510.422, "2018": 204759.993, "2019": 205970.182, "2020": 207143.243, "2021": 208280.241, "2022": 209380.331, "2023": 210441.362, "2024": 211459.352, "2025": 212430.049, "2026": 213348.475, "2027": 214209.414, "2028": 215008.982, "2029": 215743.582, "2030": 216410.03, "2031": 217004.993, "2032": 217526.053, "2033": 217972.789, "2034": 218345.419, "2035": 218644.711, "2036": 218870.898, "2037": 219024.784, "2038": 219108.65, "2039": 219124.7, "2040": 219075.13, "2041": 218960.969, "2042": 218783.084, "2043": 218543.546, "2044": 218244.527, "2045": 217888.409, "2046": 217476.404, "2047": 217009.177, "2048": 216488.045, "2049": 215913.883, "2050": 215287.463 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2008_Projecoes_1980_2050/Revisao_2008_Projecoes_1980_2050/Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2008.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2013", "en": "IBGE 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 1 июля, прогноз IBGE 2013 г.", "en": "Population on 1 July, IBGE projection 2013" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-08-29", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2011": 197397.018, "2012": 199242.462, "2013": 201032.714, "2014": 202768.562, "2015": 204450.649, "2016": 206081.432, "2017": 207660.929, "2018": 209186.802, "2019": 210659.013, "2020": 212077.375, "2021": 213440.458, "2022": 214747.509, "2023": 215998.724, "2024": 217193.093, "2025": 218330.014, "2026": 219408.552, "2027": 220428.03, "2028": 221388.185, "2029": 222288.169, "2030": 223126.917, "2031": 223904.308, "2032": 224626.629, "2033": 225291.34, "2034": 225896.169, "2035": 226438.916, "2036": 226917.266, "2037": 227329.138, "2038": 227673.003, "2039": 227947.957, "2040": 228153.204, "2041": 228287.681, "2042": 228350.924, "2043": 228343.224, "2044": 228264.82, "2045": 228116.279, "2046": 227898.165, "2047": 227611.124, "2048": 227256.259, "2049": 226834.687, "2050": 226347.688, "2051": 225796.508, "2052": 225182.233, "2053": 224506.312, "2054": 223770.235, "2055": 222975.532, "2056": 222123.791, "2057": 221216.414, "2058": 220254.812, "2059": 219240.24, "2060": 218173.888 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2013/projecoes_2013_indicadores_xls.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2018", "en": "IBGE 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 1 июля, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2018)", "en": "Population on 1 July, IBGE projection (Revision 2018)" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2018-07-25", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2017": 206804.741, "2018": 208494.9, "2019": 210147.125, "2020": 211755.692, "2021": 213317.639, "2022": 214828.54, "2023": 216284.269, "2024": 217684.462, "2025": 219029.093, "2026": 220316.53, "2027": 221545.234, "2028": 222713.669, "2029": 223821.305, "2030": 224868.462, "2031": 225854.415, "2032": 226777.802, "2033": 227638.581, "2034": 228437.122, "2035": 229173.685, "2036": 229847.832, "2037": 230459.062, "2038": 231007.871, "2039": 231494.65, "2040": 231919.922, "2041": 232284.233, "2042": 232588.58, "2043": 232834.065, "2044": 233020.996, "2045": 233149.625, "2046": 233220.257, "2047": 233233.67, "2048": 233190.482, "2049": 233090.464, "2050": 232933.276, "2051": 232719.169, "2052": 232448.867, "2053": 232122.448, "2054": 231739.632, "2055": 231300.323, "2056": 230805.223, "2057": 230255.685, "2058": 229652.286, "2059": 228995.541, "2060": 228286.347 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2018/projecoes_2018_indicadores.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2024", "en": "IBGE 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 1 июля, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2024)", "en": "Population on 1 July, IBGE projection (Revision 2024)" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2024-08-22", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2023": 211695.158, "2024": 212583.75, "2025": 213421.037, "2026": 214211.951, "2027": 214959.713, "2028": 215667.282, "2029": 216337.693, "2030": 216973.093, "2031": 217562.97, "2032": 218096.284, "2033": 218574.144, "2034": 218997.707, "2035": 219367.247, "2036": 219681.891, "2037": 219940.741, "2038": 220144.14, "2039": 220292.836, "2040": 220386.44, "2041": 220425.299, "2042": 220410.205, "2043": 220341.694, "2044": 220220.282, "2045": 220045.691, "2046": 219817.347, "2047": 219535.23, "2048": 219199.916, "2049": 218811.421, "2050": 218369.418, "2051": 217873.978, "2052": 217325.473, "2053": 216724.289, "2054": 216070.026, "2055": 215362.623, "2056": 214603.069, "2057": 213793.298, "2058": 212934.075, "2059": 212025.649, "2060": 211069.036, "2061": 210066.029, "2062": 209018.787, "2063": 207928.784, "2064": 206797.115, "2065": 205625.259, "2066": 204415.091, "2067": 203168.549, "2068": 201887.385, "2069": 200573.375, "2070": 199228.708 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2024/projecoes_2024_tab4_indicadores.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2030 ], "view": "c=BRA&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "IBGE publishes one projection per revision (no high/low variants). Revisions 2000-2008 are national only and start from the 1980 population; 2013 starts from Census 2010, 2018 from 2010 with registered births to 2016, 2024 from Census 2022 with births/deaths to 2023. \"first_projected_year\" is the first year after the last observed input; \"back_estimates\" keep what each revision printed for earlier years.", "The actual TFR is itself an IBGE estimate and has been revised: the Revision 2024 puts 2010 at 1.75, whereas the Census 2010 TFR was published as 1.90 with the Brass P/F correction, since dropped. The Census 2022 direct TFR (1.55) agrees with the Revision 2024 estimate for 2022 (1.58).", "Births: projected births are corrected for under-registration; SINASC counts are uncorrected (coverage below 100% in the 2000s, about 99% recently). The Revision 2024 estimate for 2022 is 0.5% above SINASC. SINASC 2025 is preliminary.", "Net international migration: revisions 2004 and 2008 assumed a closed population (zero), 2000 a small loss fading to zero by 2010, 2013 a small gain (4-8 thousand a year), 2018 only the Venezuelan inflow (1-19.5 thousand a year, ending 2023). IBGE's first explicit estimates (Revision 2024 report, published Nov 2025) show net LOSSES of 56-393 thousand a year in 2010-2022 (immigrants minus emigrants, derived here by subtraction). These are estimates from Federal Police border records and census questions, revised methods rather than measured flows; earlier revisions had no such data.", "Population levels are not comparable across revisions without care: the Revision 2024 adjusts Census 2022 (203.1 million enumerated) for omission to 210.9 million on 1 July 2022, while the 2013 and 2018 projections expected 214.7-214.8 million.", "Year basis: IBGE labels births, deaths and migration by year and population at 1 July; the tables do not state whether flows are calendar or July-June years (calendar years assumed, as in the IBGE text)." ] }, { "id": "bra_tfr", "iso3": "BRA", "section": "demography", "metric": "tfr", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "ребёнка на женщину", "en": "children per woman", "dec": 2 }, "headline": { "ru": "Бразилия: прогноз 2001 года ждал 2,06 ребёнка на женщину на 2023 год — вышло 1,57", "en": "Brazil: the IBGE 2001 projection expected fertility of 2.06 for 2023; the outcome was 1.57" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Бразилия: рождаемость — прогнозы IBGE и факт", "en": "Brazil: fertility — IBGE projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Бразилия · рождаемость", "en": "Brazil · fertility" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов статистического ведомства Бразилии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 4 из 5, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2001 года: ждал на 2023 год 2,06 ребёнка на женщину, вышло 1,57 (−23,8%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "5 projections of IBGE (the Brazilian statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 4 of 5, above in 1. The largest miss: IBGE 2001 expected 2.06 for 2023; the outcome was 1.57 (−23.8%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка IBGE 2024 года", "en": "IBGE 2024 estimates" }, "values": { "2000": 2.3156, "2001": 2.1492, "2002": 2.0666, "2003": 2.0163, "2004": 1.97, "2005": 1.9493, "2006": 1.8798, "2007": 1.817, "2008": 1.8168, "2009": 1.7728, "2010": 1.7457, "2011": 1.7696, "2012": 1.757, "2013": 1.7506, "2014": 1.7899, "2015": 1.8237, "2016": 1.7186, "2017": 1.7587, "2018": 1.7792, "2019": 1.7294, "2020": 1.6635, "2021": 1.6367, "2022": 1.5763, "2023": 1.5705 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2024/projecoes_2024_tab4_indicadores.xlsx", "definition": "Total fertility rate estimated by IBGE in the Projections Revision 2024 from corrected birth records (SINASC + Registro Civil) and the conciliated female population. Brazil has no annually published register-based TFR; this is the office's current estimate of past years." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2001", "en": "IBGE 2001" }, "label_full": { "ru": "СКР, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2000)", "en": "TFR, IBGE projection (Revision 2000)" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2001-08", "variant": "single published projection (TFT limite 2,06; com migração internacional)", "values": { "2001": 2.18, "2002": 2.16, "2003": 2.14, "2004": 2.13, "2005": 2.12, "2006": 2.11, "2007": 2.1, "2008": 2.1, "2009": 2.09, "2010": 2.08, "2011": 2.08, "2012": 2.08, "2013": 2.07, "2014": 2.07, "2015": 2.07, "2016": 2.07, "2017": 2.06, "2018": 2.06, "2019": 2.06, "2020": 2.06, "2021": 2.06, "2022": 2.06, "2023": 2.06, "2024": 2.06, "2025": 2.06, "2026": 2.06, "2027": 2.06, "2028": 2.06, "2029": 2.06, "2030": 2.06, "2031": 2.06, "2032": 2.06, "2033": 2.06, "2034": 2.06, "2035": 2.06, "2036": 2.06, "2037": 2.06, "2038": 2.06, "2039": 2.06, "2040": 2.06, "2041": 2.06, "2042": 2.06, "2043": 2.06, "2044": 2.06, "2045": 2.06, "2046": 2.06, "2047": 2.06, "2048": 2.06, "2049": 2.06, "2050": 2.06 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2000_Projecoes_1980_2050/Taxas_e_Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2000.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2004", "en": "IBGE 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "СКР, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2004)", "en": "TFR, IBGE projection (Revision 2004)" }, "year": 2001, "published": "2004-08-30", "variant": "single published projection (TFT limite 1,85; sem migração internacional)", "values": { "2002": 2.35, "2003": 2.3296, "2004": 2.3095, "2005": 2.2895, "2006": 2.2696, "2007": 2.25, "2008": 2.2317, "2009": 2.2136, "2010": 2.1955, "2011": 2.1778, "2012": 2.16, "2013": 2.1458, "2014": 2.1318, "2015": 2.1177, "2016": 2.1038, "2017": 2.09, "2018": 2.0758, "2019": 2.0617, "2020": 2.0477, "2021": 2.0338, "2022": 2.02, "2023": 2.0058, "2024": 1.9917, "2025": 1.9777, "2026": 1.9639, "2027": 1.95, "2028": 1.9398, "2029": 1.9299, "2030": 1.9198, "2031": 1.9099, "2032": 1.9, "2033": 1.8898, "2034": 1.8799, "2035": 1.8698, "2036": 1.8599, "2037": 1.8592, "2038": 1.8585, "2039": 1.8578, "2040": 1.8571, "2041": 1.8563, "2042": 1.8556, "2043": 1.8549, "2044": 1.8542, "2045": 1.8535, "2046": 1.8528, "2047": 1.8521, "2048": 1.8514, "2049": 1.8507, "2050": 1.85 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2004_Projecoes_1980_2050/Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2004.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2008", "en": "IBGE 2008" }, "label_full": { "ru": "СКР, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2008)", "en": "TFR, IBGE projection (Revision 2008)" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2008-11-27", "variant": "\"hipótese recomendada\" (TFT limite 1,5; sem migração internacional)", "values": { "2007": 1.925, "2008": 1.8625, "2009": 1.8057, "2010": 1.7552, "2011": 1.7111, "2012": 1.6732, "2013": 1.6413, "2014": 1.6146, "2015": 1.5925, "2016": 1.5743, "2017": 1.5596, "2018": 1.5477, "2019": 1.538, "2020": 1.5302, "2021": 1.524, "2022": 1.5192, "2023": 1.5152, "2024": 1.512, "2025": 1.5095, "2026": 1.5076, "2027": 1.5059, "2028": 1.5048, "2029": 1.5038, "2030": 1.503, "2031": 1.5024, "2032": 1.5019, "2033": 1.5014, "2034": 1.5012, "2035": 1.5009, "2036": 1.5008, "2037": 1.5007, "2038": 1.5006, "2039": 1.5006, "2040": 1.5005, "2041": 1.5005, "2042": 1.5004, "2043": 1.5004, "2044": 1.5003, "2045": 1.5003, "2046": 1.5002, "2047": 1.5002, "2048": 1.5001, "2049": 1.5001, "2050": 1.5 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2008_Projecoes_1980_2050/Revisao_2008_Projecoes_1980_2050/Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2008.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2013", "en": "IBGE 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "СКР, прогноз IBGE 2013 г.", "en": "TFR, IBGE projection 2013" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-08-29", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2011": 1.8333, "2012": 1.8005, "2013": 1.7702, "2014": 1.7422, "2015": 1.7164, "2016": 1.6921, "2017": 1.6699, "2018": 1.6496, "2019": 1.631, "2020": 1.614, "2021": 1.5985, "2022": 1.5842, "2023": 1.5711, "2024": 1.5591, "2025": 1.5481, "2026": 1.5381, "2027": 1.5288, "2028": 1.5204, "2029": 1.5127, "2030": 1.5056, "2031": 1.5054, "2032": 1.5052, "2033": 1.5051, "2034": 1.5049, "2035": 1.5047, "2036": 1.5045, "2037": 1.5043, "2038": 1.5041, "2039": 1.5039, "2040": 1.5037, "2041": 1.5036, "2042": 1.5034, "2043": 1.5032, "2044": 1.503, "2045": 1.5028, "2046": 1.5026, "2047": 1.5024, "2048": 1.5022, "2049": 1.5021, "2050": 1.5019, "2051": 1.5017, "2052": 1.5015, "2053": 1.5013, "2054": 1.5011, "2055": 1.5009, "2056": 1.5008, "2057": 1.5006, "2058": 1.5004, "2059": 1.5002, "2060": 1.5 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2013/projecoes_2013_indicadores_xls.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2018", "en": "IBGE 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "СКР, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2018)", "en": "TFR, IBGE projection (Revision 2018)" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2018-07-25", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2017": 1.7762, "2018": 1.7706, "2019": 1.7653, "2020": 1.7603, "2021": 1.7557, "2022": 1.7514, "2023": 1.7472, "2024": 1.7433, "2025": 1.7394, "2026": 1.7357, "2027": 1.732, "2028": 1.7284, "2029": 1.7249, "2030": 1.7216, "2031": 1.7183, "2032": 1.7152, "2033": 1.7121, "2034": 1.7092, "2035": 1.7064, "2036": 1.7037, "2037": 1.7011, "2038": 1.6987, "2039": 1.6963, "2040": 1.694, "2041": 1.6919, "2042": 1.69, "2043": 1.6881, "2044": 1.6862, "2045": 1.6845, "2046": 1.6827, "2047": 1.6811, "2048": 1.6794, "2049": 1.6777, "2050": 1.676, "2051": 1.6743, "2052": 1.6727, "2053": 1.671, "2054": 1.6693, "2055": 1.6676, "2056": 1.6658, "2057": 1.6641, "2058": 1.6623, "2059": 1.6605, "2060": 1.6587 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2018/projecoes_2018_indicadores.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2024", "en": "IBGE 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "СКР, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2024)", "en": "TFR, IBGE projection (Revision 2024)" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2024-08-22", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2024": 1.5468, "2025": 1.5285, "2026": 1.5129, "2027": 1.4997, "2028": 1.4885, "2029": 1.4791, "2030": 1.4711, "2031": 1.4644, "2032": 1.4588, "2033": 1.4542, "2034": 1.4505, "2035": 1.4475, "2036": 1.4452, "2037": 1.4434, "2038": 1.4421, "2039": 1.4413, "2040": 1.4409, "2041": 1.4408, "2042": 1.441, "2043": 1.4416, "2044": 1.4423, "2045": 1.4433, "2046": 1.4444, "2047": 1.4457, "2048": 1.4471, "2049": 1.4486, "2050": 1.4503, "2051": 1.452, "2052": 1.4537, "2053": 1.4556, "2054": 1.4575, "2055": 1.4595, "2056": 1.4616, "2057": 1.4637, "2058": 1.4659, "2059": 1.4681, "2060": 1.4704, "2061": 1.4728, "2062": 1.4752, "2063": 1.4776, "2064": 1.4801, "2065": 1.4826, "2066": 1.4852, "2067": 1.4877, "2068": 1.4903, "2069": 1.493, "2070": 1.4956 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2024/projecoes_2024_tab4_indicadores.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2030 ], "view": "c=BRA&i=tfr,births&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "IBGE publishes one projection per revision (no high/low variants). Revisions 2000-2008 are national only and start from the 1980 population; 2013 starts from Census 2010, 2018 from 2010 with registered births to 2016, 2024 from Census 2022 with births/deaths to 2023. \"first_projected_year\" is the first year after the last observed input; \"back_estimates\" keep what each revision printed for earlier years.", "The actual TFR is itself an IBGE estimate and has been revised: the Revision 2024 puts 2010 at 1.75, whereas the Census 2010 TFR was published as 1.90 with the Brass P/F correction, since dropped. The Census 2022 direct TFR (1.55) agrees with the Revision 2024 estimate for 2022 (1.58).", "Births: projected births are corrected for under-registration; SINASC counts are uncorrected (coverage below 100% in the 2000s, about 99% recently). The Revision 2024 estimate for 2022 is 0.5% above SINASC. SINASC 2025 is preliminary.", "Net international migration: revisions 2004 and 2008 assumed a closed population (zero), 2000 a small loss fading to zero by 2010, 2013 a small gain (4-8 thousand a year), 2018 only the Venezuelan inflow (1-19.5 thousand a year, ending 2023). IBGE's first explicit estimates (Revision 2024 report, published Nov 2025) show net LOSSES of 56-393 thousand a year in 2010-2022 (immigrants minus emigrants, derived here by subtraction). These are estimates from Federal Police border records and census questions, revised methods rather than measured flows; earlier revisions had no such data.", "Population levels are not comparable across revisions without care: the Revision 2024 adjusts Census 2022 (203.1 million enumerated) for omission to 210.9 million on 1 July 2022, while the 2013 and 2018 projections expected 214.7-214.8 million.", "Year basis: IBGE labels births, deaths and migration by year and population at 1 July; the tables do not state whether flows are calendar or July-June years (calendar years assumed, as in the IBGE text)." ] }, { "id": "bra_births", "iso3": "BRA", "section": "demography", "metric": "births", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. рождений в год", "en": "thousand births a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Бразилия: прогноз 2004 года ждал рождений 3,42 млн на 2023 год — вышло 2,54 млн", "en": "Brazil: the IBGE 2004 projection expected births of 3.42M for 2023; the outcome was 2.54M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Бразилия: рождения — прогнозы IBGE и факт", "en": "Brazil: births — IBGE projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Бразилия · рождения", "en": "Brazil · births" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов статистического ведомства Бразилии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 4 из 5, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2004 года: ждал на 2023 год 3,42 млн, вышло 2,54 млн (−25,7%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "5 projections of IBGE (the Brazilian statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 4 of 5, above in 1. The largest miss: IBGE 2004 expected 3.42M for 2023; the outcome was 2.54M (−25.7%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка IBGE 2024 года (с поправкой на неполную регистрацию)", "en": "IBGE 2024 estimates (corrected for under-registration)" }, "values": { "2000": 3572.865, "2001": 3367.915, "2002": 3281.881, "2003": 3240.619, "2004": 3198.352, "2005": 3196.677, "2006": 3105.891, "2007": 3023.438, "2008": 3042.23, "2009": 2986.097, "2010": 2947.296, "2011": 2987.758, "2012": 2967.887, "2013": 2959.324, "2014": 3025.813, "2015": 3079.394, "2016": 2894.065, "2017": 2949.789, "2018": 2968.734, "2019": 2871.16, "2020": 2749.189, "2021": 2690.146, "2022": 2574.542, "2023": 2544.393 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2024/projecoes_2024_tab4_indicadores.xlsx", "definition": "Births implicit in the IBGE Projections Revision 2024 for the estimation period: SINASC and Registro Civil records 2000-2023 (2023 preliminary) corrected for under-registration, by year. These are model-based estimates, not counts." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2001", "en": "IBGE 2001" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Рождения, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2000)", "en": "Births, IBGE projection (Revision 2000)" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2001-08", "variant": "single published projection (TFT limite 2,06; com migração internacional)", "values": { "2001": 3428.446, "2002": 3441.928, "2003": 3448.398, "2004": 3457.511, "2005": 3459.511, "2006": 3457.327, "2007": 3448.71, "2008": 3447.345, "2009": 3426.408, "2010": 3400.16, "2011": 3389.652, "2012": 3377.719, "2013": 3348.878, "2014": 3335.773, "2015": 3323.87, "2016": 3315.988, "2017": 3292.828, "2018": 3288.068, "2019": 3285.27, "2020": 3284.856, "2021": 3287.279, "2022": 3290.774, "2023": 3294.755, "2024": 3298.845, "2025": 3302.287, "2026": 3305.197, "2027": 3307.302, "2028": 3308.089, "2029": 3307.199, "2030": 3304.574, "2031": 3300.571, "2032": 3295.217, "2033": 3288.448, "2034": 3280.829, "2035": 3272.975, "2036": 3265.124, "2037": 3257.261, "2038": 3249.766, "2039": 3243.073, "2040": 3237.361, "2041": 3232.55, "2042": 3228.711, "2043": 3226.059, "2044": 3224.361, "2045": 3223.397, "2046": 3222.88, "2047": 3222.756, "2048": 3222.99, "2049": 3223.235, "2050": 3223.317 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2000_Projecoes_1980_2050/Taxas_e_Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2000.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2004", "en": "IBGE 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Рождения, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2004)", "en": "Births, IBGE projection (Revision 2004)" }, "year": 2001, "published": "2004-08-30", "variant": "single published projection (TFT limite 1,85; sem migração internacional)", "values": { "2002": 3704.519, "2003": 3731.8, "2004": 3747.899, "2005": 3756.619, "2006": 3753.208, "2007": 3741.814, "2008": 3721.452, "2009": 3701.053, "2010": 3675.249, "2011": 3641.83, "2012": 3606.623, "2013": 3578.743, "2014": 3549.36, "2015": 3523.359, "2016": 3502.151, "2017": 3484.81, "2018": 3469.393, "2019": 3455.29, "2020": 3444.762, "2021": 3437.512, "2022": 3431.675, "2023": 3424.917, "2024": 3416.267, "2025": 3406.714, "2026": 3396.183, "2027": 3382.749, "2028": 3372.272, "2029": 3358.539, "2030": 3341.812, "2031": 3323.002, "2032": 3301.325, "2033": 3276.905, "2034": 3250.848, "2035": 3223.263, "2036": 3195.285, "2037": 3182.721, "2038": 3169.911, "2039": 3157.016, "2040": 3144.233, "2041": 3131.818, "2042": 3119.811, "2043": 3108.182, "2044": 3096.909, "2045": 3085.829, "2046": 3074.767, "2047": 3063.497, "2048": 3051.83, "2049": 3039.673, "2050": 3026.867 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2004_Projecoes_1980_2050/Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2004.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2008", "en": "IBGE 2008" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Рождения, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2008)", "en": "Births, IBGE projection (Revision 2008)" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2008-11-27", "variant": "\"hipótese recomendada\" (TFT limite 1,5; sem migração internacional)", "values": { "2007": 3201.327, "2008": 3105.8, "2009": 3019.066, "2010": 2938.214, "2011": 2861.464, "2012": 2793.813, "2013": 2737.416, "2014": 2688.227, "2015": 2649.396, "2016": 2620.28, "2017": 2597.267, "2018": 2577.825, "2019": 2560.252, "2020": 2545.414, "2021": 2532.465, "2022": 2518.692, "2023": 2501.992, "2024": 2481.237, "2025": 2457.339, "2026": 2430.499, "2027": 2400.111, "2028": 2366.985, "2029": 2330.876, "2030": 2292.666, "2031": 2253.557, "2032": 2214.255, "2033": 2175.489, "2034": 2137.725, "2035": 2101.265, "2036": 2066.824, "2037": 2034.767, "2038": 2005.087, "2039": 1977.558, "2040": 1951.951, "2041": 1928.097, "2042": 1905.8, "2043": 1884.742, "2044": 1864.535, "2045": 1844.79, "2046": 1825.163, "2047": 1805.399, "2048": 1785.319, "2049": 1764.819, "2050": 1743.814 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2008_Projecoes_1980_2050/Revisao_2008_Projecoes_1980_2050/Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2008.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2013", "en": "IBGE 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Рождения, прогноз IBGE 2013 г.", "en": "Births, IBGE projection 2013" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-08-29", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2011": 3059.019, "2012": 3015.052, "2013": 2973.118, "2014": 2933.186, "2015": 2894.982, "2016": 2857.985, "2017": 2822.384, "2018": 2787.981, "2019": 2754.779, "2020": 2722.654, "2021": 2691.798, "2022": 2661.01, "2023": 2630.49, "2024": 2600.555, "2025": 2571.427, "2026": 2543.313, "2027": 2515.815, "2028": 2488.853, "2029": 2462.224, "2030": 2435.762, "2031": 2417.885, "2032": 2398.914, "2033": 2378.809, "2034": 2357.486, "2035": 2334.989, "2036": 2310.939, "2037": 2286.302, "2038": 2261.073, "2039": 2235.289, "2040": 2209.087, "2041": 2181.955, "2042": 2155.097, "2043": 2128.524, "2044": 2102.266, "2045": 2076.402, "2046": 2050.774, "2047": 2025.872, "2048": 2001.658, "2049": 1978.094, "2050": 1955.154, "2051": 1932.788, "2052": 1911.063, "2053": 1889.918, "2054": 1869.284, "2055": 1849.103, "2056": 1829.321, "2057": 1809.916, "2058": 1790.849, "2059": 1772.075, "2060": 1753.549 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2013/projecoes_2013_indicadores_xls.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2018", "en": "IBGE 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Рождения, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2018)", "en": "Births, IBGE projection (Revision 2018)" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2018-07-25", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2017": 3020.743, "2018": 3003.585, "2019": 2984.414, "2020": 2963.516, "2021": 2940.629, "2022": 2913.688, "2023": 2885.501, "2024": 2856.69, "2025": 2827.039, "2026": 2797.674, "2027": 2768.0, "2028": 2738.355, "2029": 2710.134, "2030": 2683.44, "2031": 2655.85, "2032": 2628.742, "2033": 2603.54, "2034": 2579.544, "2035": 2557.147, "2036": 2534.413, "2037": 2513.03, "2038": 2493.021, "2039": 2473.758, "2040": 2455.519, "2041": 2437.785, "2042": 2422.219, "2043": 2407.325, "2044": 2392.409, "2045": 2377.677, "2046": 2363.15, "2047": 2349.527, "2048": 2335.541, "2049": 2320.604, "2050": 2304.717, "2051": 2288.973, "2052": 2273.127, "2053": 2255.972, "2054": 2237.804, "2055": 2218.45, "2056": 2199.622, "2057": 2180.831, "2058": 2161.015, "2059": 2141.033, "2060": 2120.842 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2018/projecoes_2018_indicadores.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2024", "en": "IBGE 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Рождения, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2024)", "en": "Births, IBGE projection (Revision 2024)" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2024-08-22", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2024": 2486.125, "2025": 2436.737, "2026": 2393.079, "2027": 2353.365, "2028": 2317.618, "2029": 2286.158, "2030": 2258.237, "2031": 2232.453, "2032": 2207.936, "2033": 2185.592, "2034": 2165.079, "2035": 2145.738, "2036": 2126.107, "2037": 2106.355, "2038": 2087.997, "2039": 2070.232, "2040": 2052.144, "2041": 2033.282, "2042": 2014.434, "2043": 1996.167, "2044": 1977.938, "2045": 1959.217, "2046": 1939.62, "2047": 1920.11, "2048": 1900.227, "2049": 1879.579, "2050": 1858.261, "2051": 1836.666, "2052": 1815.118, "2053": 1792.487, "2054": 1768.889, "2055": 1744.977, "2056": 1722.304, "2057": 1700.835, "2058": 1678.589, "2059": 1656.301, "2060": 1635.342, "2061": 1616.22, "2062": 1598.847, "2063": 1582.001, "2064": 1565.713, "2065": 1550.733, "2066": 1536.824, "2067": 1523.87, "2068": 1511.571, "2069": 1499.66, "2070": 1488.16 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2024/projecoes_2024_tab4_indicadores.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2030 ], "view": "c=BRA&i=births,tfr&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "IBGE publishes one projection per revision (no high/low variants). Revisions 2000-2008 are national only and start from the 1980 population; 2013 starts from Census 2010, 2018 from 2010 with registered births to 2016, 2024 from Census 2022 with births/deaths to 2023. \"first_projected_year\" is the first year after the last observed input; \"back_estimates\" keep what each revision printed for earlier years.", "The actual TFR is itself an IBGE estimate and has been revised: the Revision 2024 puts 2010 at 1.75, whereas the Census 2010 TFR was published as 1.90 with the Brass P/F correction, since dropped. The Census 2022 direct TFR (1.55) agrees with the Revision 2024 estimate for 2022 (1.58).", "Births: projected births are corrected for under-registration; SINASC counts are uncorrected (coverage below 100% in the 2000s, about 99% recently). The Revision 2024 estimate for 2022 is 0.5% above SINASC. SINASC 2025 is preliminary.", "Net international migration: revisions 2004 and 2008 assumed a closed population (zero), 2000 a small loss fading to zero by 2010, 2013 a small gain (4-8 thousand a year), 2018 only the Venezuelan inflow (1-19.5 thousand a year, ending 2023). IBGE's first explicit estimates (Revision 2024 report, published Nov 2025) show net LOSSES of 56-393 thousand a year in 2010-2022 (immigrants minus emigrants, derived here by subtraction). These are estimates from Federal Police border records and census questions, revised methods rather than measured flows; earlier revisions had no such data.", "Population levels are not comparable across revisions without care: the Revision 2024 adjusts Census 2022 (203.1 million enumerated) for omission to 210.9 million on 1 July 2022, while the 2013 and 2018 projections expected 214.7-214.8 million.", "Year basis: IBGE labels births, deaths and migration by year and population at 1 July; the tables do not state whether flows are calendar or July-June years (calendar years assumed, as in the IBGE text)." ] }, { "id": "chl_population", "iso3": "CHL", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Чили: прогноз 2004 года ждал население 19,01 млн на 2024 год — вышло 19,9 млн", "en": "Chile: the INE 2004 projection expected a population of 19.01M for 2024; the outcome was 19.9M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Чили: население — прогнозы INE и факт", "en": "Chile: population — INE projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Чили · население", "en": "Chile · population" }, "note": { "ru": "4 прогноза статистического ведомства Чили сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 1 из 4, выше — в 3. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2004 года: ждал на 2024 год 19,01 млн, вышло 19,9 млн (+4,7%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "4 projections of INE Chile checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 1 of 4, above in 3. The largest miss: INE 2004 expected 19.01M for 2024; the outcome was 19.9M (+4.7%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка INE 2026 года (на 30 июня)", "en": "INE 2026 estimates (30 June)" }, "values": { "1992": 13770.793, "1993": 13991.127, "1994": 14206.429, "1995": 14414.046, "1996": 14613.776, "1997": 14809.841, "1998": 15001.623, "1999": 15185.799, "2000": 15365.623, "2001": 15543.565, "2002": 15715.924, "2003": 15882.092, "2004": 16041.612, "2005": 16198.348, "2006": 16356.738, "2007": 16516.863, "2008": 16682.228, "2009": 16855.484, "2010": 17030.393, "2011": 17204.567, "2012": 17380.597, "2013": 17559.507, "2014": 17749.36, "2015": 17954.875, "2016": 18190.964, "2017": 18460.529, "2018": 18754.494, "2019": 19040.037, "2020": 19235.54, "2021": 19391.613, "2022": 19581.575, "2023": 19756.365, "2024": 19904.328 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/cuadros-estadisticos/proyecci%C3%B3n-base-2024/estimaciones-y-proyecciones-de-poblaci%C3%B3n-1992-2070_base-2024_tabulados.xlsx?sfvrsn=2508a40e_7", "definition": "Usually resident population at 30 June (linear interpolation of INE 1 January estimates), reconciled with Census 2024 (and earlier censuses) and corrected for census omission." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "INE 1995", "en": "INE 1995" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 30 июня — прогноз INE-CELADE 1995", "en": "Population at 30 June - INE-CELADE 1995 projection (base Census 1992)" }, "year": 1992, "published": "1995", "variant": "hipótesis media o recomendada (medium / recommended)", "values": { "1991": 13319.726, "1992": 13544.964, "1993": 13771.187, "1994": 13994.355, "1995": 14210.429, "1996": 14418.864, "1997": 14622.354, "1998": 14821.714, "1999": 15017.76, "2000": 15211.308, "2001": 15401.952, "2002": 15589.147, "2003": 15773.504, "2004": 15955.631, "2005": 16136.137, "2006": 16313.775, "2007": 16488.14, "2008": 16661.101, "2009": 16834.527, "2010": 17010.289, "2011": 17189.445, "2012": 17370.749, "2013": 17552.612, "2014": 17733.446, "2015": 17911.663, "2016": 18088.056, "2017": 18263.683, "2018": 18437.356, "2019": 18607.884, "2020": 18774.077, "2021": 18935.831, "2022": 19093.941, "2023": 19248.561, "2024": 19399.846, "2025": 19547.955, "2026": 19692.968, "2027": 19834.781, "2028": 19973.271, "2029": 20108.316, "2030": 20239.794, "2031": 20367.609, "2032": 20491.845, "2033": 20612.64, "2034": 20730.139, "2035": 20844.482, "2036": 20955.547, "2037": 21063.24, "2038": 21167.743, "2039": 21269.24, "2040": 21367.913, "2041": 21463.42, "2042": 21555.641, "2043": 21645.085, "2044": 21732.267, "2045": 21817.698, "2046": 21901.037, "2047": 21981.941, "2048": 22060.924, "2049": 22138.496, "2050": 22215.171 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/metodologia/proyecciones-anteriores/base-1992/base-1992-proyecciones-1950-2050-pa%C3%ADs-regi%C3%B3n-y-comuna-metodolog%C3%ADa.pdf?sfvrsn=3550d11f_6" }, { "label": { "ru": "INE 2004", "en": "INE 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 30 июня — прогноз INE 2004", "en": "Population at 30 June - INE 2004 projection (base Census 2002)" }, "year": 2002, "published": "2004", "variant": "hipótesis media o recomendada", "values": { "2006": 16432.674, "2007": 16598.074, "2008": 16763.47, "2009": 16928.873, "2010": 17094.275, "2011": 17248.45, "2012": 17402.63, "2013": 17556.815, "2014": 17711.004, "2015": 17865.185, "2016": 18001.964, "2017": 18138.749, "2018": 18275.53, "2019": 18412.316, "2020": 18549.095, "2021": 18665.029, "2022": 18780.961, "2023": 18896.893, "2024": 19012.825, "2025": 19128.758, "2026": 19220.429, "2027": 19312.102, "2028": 19403.774, "2029": 19495.446, "2030": 19587.121, "2031": 19652.544, "2032": 19717.971, "2033": 19783.397, "2034": 19848.824, "2035": 19914.249, "2036": 19953.465, "2037": 19992.68, "2038": 20031.894, "2039": 20071.109, "2040": 20110.322, "2041": 20127.269, "2042": 20144.214, "2043": 20161.16, "2044": 20178.105, "2045": 20195.05, "2046": 20196.996, "2047": 20198.941, "2048": 20200.885, "2049": 20202.831, "2050": 20204.779 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/cuadros-estadisticos/proyecciones-anteriores/base-2002/base-2002-proyecciones-1950-2050-pa%C3%ADs-regiones-y-comunas.rar?sfvrsn=c8948f3b_4&download=true" }, { "label": { "ru": "INE 2014", "en": "INE 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 30 июня — обновление INE 2014", "en": "Population at 30 June - INE 2014 update" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2014-09-04", "variant": "single projection", "values": { "2013": 17631.579, "2014": 17819.054, "2015": 18006.407, "2016": 18191.884, "2017": 18373.917, "2018": 18552.218, "2019": 18726.548, "2020": 18896.684 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/cuadros-estadisticos/proyecciones-anteriores/base-2002-(actualizaci%C3%B3n-2014)/base-2002-(2014)-pa%C3%ADs-y-regiones_pob-total-e-indicadores.xlsx?sfvrsn=92d0b299_3" }, { "label": { "ru": "INE 2018", "en": "INE 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 30 июня — прогноз INE 2018", "en": "Population at 30 June - INE 2018 projection (base Census 2017)" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2018-12-19", "variant": "single (official) projection", "values": { "2018": 18751.405, "2019": 19107.216, "2020": 19458.31, "2021": 19678.363, "2022": 19828.563, "2023": 19960.889, "2024": 20086.377, "2025": 20206.953, "2026": 20322.807, "2027": 20433.791, "2028": 20539.666, "2029": 20640.23, "2030": 20735.289, "2031": 20826.397, "2032": 20912.278, "2033": 20992.831, "2034": 21067.996, "2035": 21137.769, "2036": 21202.223, "2037": 21261.462, "2038": 21315.63, "2039": 21364.889, "2040": 21409.418, "2041": 21449.428, "2042": 21485.105, "2043": 21516.611, "2044": 21544.064, "2045": 21567.513, "2046": 21587.015, "2047": 21602.589, "2048": 21614.271, "2049": 21622.101, "2050": 21626.079 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/cuadros-estadisticos/base-2017/ine_estimaciones-y-proyecciones-de-poblaci%C3%B3n-1992-2050_base-2017_tabulados.xlsx?sfvrsn=68eefb1_9" }, { "label": { "ru": "INE 2026", "en": "INE 2026" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 30 июня — прогноз INE 2026", "en": "Population at 30 June - INE 2026 projection (base Census 2024)" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2026-01-28", "variant": "medio (official: medium fertility, mortality and migration)", "values": { "2025": 20036.669, "2026": 20150.948, "2027": 20252.145, "2028": 20342.246, "2029": 20421.403, "2030": 20489.812, "2031": 20546.653, "2032": 20590.711, "2033": 20621.533, "2034": 20639.005, "2035": 20643.49, "2036": 20635.825, "2037": 20617.132, "2038": 20588.655, "2039": 20551.753, "2040": 20508.117, "2041": 20459.18, "2042": 20405.521, "2043": 20347.272, "2044": 20284.551, "2045": 20217.414, "2046": 20145.968, "2047": 20070.235, "2048": 19990.194, "2049": 19905.775, "2050": 19816.858, "2051": 19723.225, "2052": 19624.629, "2053": 19520.801, "2054": 19411.448, "2055": 19296.388, "2056": 19175.47, "2057": 19048.653, "2058": 18916.047, "2059": 18777.806, "2060": 18634.21, "2061": 18485.577, "2062": 18332.247, "2063": 18174.541, "2064": 18012.787, "2065": 17847.299, "2066": 17678.364, "2067": 17506.235, "2068": 17331.111, "2069": 17153.173, "2070": 16972.558 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/cuadros-estadisticos/proyecci%C3%B3n-base-2024/estimaciones-y-proyecciones-de-poblaci%C3%B3n-1992-2070_base-2024_tabulados.xlsx?sfvrsn=2508a40e_7" } ], "xRange": [ 1990, 2030 ], "view": "c=CHL&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Year bases differ: INE EEPP-2017 flows are 1 July-30 June (keyed here by end year), EEPP-1992/2002 are 5-year mid-year periods (annual averages), EEPP-2014 and EEPP-2024 and all vital statistics are calendar years. Comparisons across bases are approximate (half-year offset).", "Births: projections use \"true\" (corrected) births; compare with chl_births_corrected_ine. Observed registered births are ~0.1-2% lower (larger gap in the 1990s).", "\"Actual\" net migration and population are INE reconstructions (EEPP-2024, after Census 2024), not direct measurements; EEPP-2017 had its own, different back-estimates (stored in its back_estimates). Context only (nothing derived from it): INE-SERMIG estimate of 1,918,583 foreign residents at 31 Dec 2023 (indicator panel on https://www.ine.gob.cl/estadisticas-por-tema/demografia-y-poblacion/estimaciones-y-proyecciones-de-poblacion); INE notes the foreign population roughly doubled between 2017 and 2024.", "Actual TFR is INE's 2026 recalculation with base-2024 denominators (2024-2025 provisional); TFRs printed in older yearbooks used older population denominators and differ in the 2nd decimal.", "EEPP-2002 annual population values are INE linear interpolations between quinquennial points; EEPP-1992 (1995) values were hand-transcribed from a scanned PDF (checksums: men+women=total; births-deaths=natural increase; 5-year population change = 5 x annual growth).", "Some projected years were already (partly) elapsed when an edition was published; they are listed in elapsed_at_publication and should not be read as genuine forecasts (e.g. EEPP-2024 fixed 2025 TFR at 0.97 from provisional births).", "Not covered: INE regional/communal projections (same vintages); the 1987 INE-CELADE projection (base 1982) is not on ine.gob.cl." ] }, { "id": "bra_migration", "iso3": "BRA", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Бразилия: в 2010–2022 годах миграция унесла 2,59 млн, а прогноз 2001 года её не закладывал", "en": "Brazil: the IBGE 2001 projection assumed no net migration for 2010–2022; the outcome was −2.59M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Бразилия: чистая миграция — прогнозы IBGE и оценка IBGE", "en": "Brazil: net migration — IBGE projections vs IBGE estimates" }, "short": { "ru": "Бразилия · миграция", "en": "Brazil · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов статистического ведомства Бразилии против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 0 из 5. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2001 года: за 2010–2022 ждали ноль, вышло −2,59 млн. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "5 projections of IBGE (the Brazilian statistical office) against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 0 of 5. The largest miss: IBGE 2001 expected zero for 2010–2022; the outcome was −2.59M. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка IBGE 2024 года (модельная: прямого учёта нет)", "en": "IBGE 2024 estimates (model-based: there is no direct count)" }, "values": { "2010": -392.874, "2011": -296.574, "2012": -171.889, "2013": -149.203, "2014": -137.663, "2015": -205.184, "2016": -208.704, "2017": -295.457, "2018": -293.731, "2019": -72.127, "2020": -58.461, "2021": -55.83, "2022": -255.776 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2024/Serie_Relatorios_Metotodologicos_v40_Projecoes_da_Populacao_Brasil_e_Unidades_da_Federacao_Revisao_2024_3a_Edicao.pdf", "definition": "International immigrants (Census 2010 and 2022 fixed-date question, interpolated; Roraima/Amazonas follow Venezuelan entries in the Federal Police STI system) minus international emigrants (derived from the STI entry/exit balance of Brazilians, residents, temporaries and deportees) as estimated by IBGE for the Revision 2024. Net = Tabelas 5/6 minus Tabela 8, computed here by subtraction." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2001", "en": "IBGE 2001" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2000)", "en": "Net international migration, IBGE projection (Revision 2000)" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2001-08", "variant": "single published projection (TFT limite 2,06; com migração internacional)", "values": { "2001": -29.025, "2002": -25.8, "2003": -22.575, "2004": -19.35, "2005": -16.125, "2006": -12.9, "2007": -9.675, "2008": -6.45, "2009": -3.225, "2010": 0.0, "2011": 0.0, "2012": 0.0, "2013": 0.0, "2014": 0.0, "2015": 0.0, "2016": 0.0, "2017": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2019": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2021": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2023": 0.0, "2024": 0.0, "2025": 0.0, "2026": 0.0, "2027": 0.0, "2028": 0.0, "2029": 0.0, "2030": 0.0, "2031": 0.0, "2032": 0.0, "2033": 0.0, "2034": 0.0, "2035": 0.0, "2036": 0.0, "2037": 0.0, "2038": 0.0, "2039": 0.0, "2040": 0.0, "2041": 0.0, "2042": 0.0, "2043": 0.0, "2044": 0.0, "2045": 0.0, "2046": 0.0, "2047": 0.0, "2048": 0.0, "2049": 0.0, "2050": 0.0 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2000_Projecoes_1980_2050/Taxas_e_Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2000.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2004", "en": "IBGE 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2004)", "en": "Net international migration, IBGE projection (Revision 2004)" }, "year": 2001, "published": "2004-08-30", "variant": "single published projection (TFT limite 1,85; sem migração internacional)", "values": { "2002": 0.0, "2003": 0.0, "2004": 0.0, "2005": 0.0, "2006": 0.0, "2007": 0.0, "2008": 0.0, "2009": 0.0, "2010": 0.0, "2011": 0.0, "2012": 0.0, "2013": 0.0, "2014": 0.0, "2015": 0.0, "2016": 0.0, "2017": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2019": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2021": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2023": 0.0, "2024": 0.0, "2025": 0.0, "2026": 0.0, "2027": 0.0, "2028": 0.0, "2029": 0.0, "2030": 0.0, "2031": 0.0, "2032": 0.0, "2033": 0.0, "2034": 0.0, "2035": 0.0, "2036": 0.0, "2037": 0.0, "2038": 0.0, "2039": 0.0, "2040": 0.0, "2041": 0.0, "2042": 0.0, "2043": 0.0, "2044": 0.0, "2045": 0.0, "2046": 0.0, "2047": 0.0, "2048": 0.0, "2049": 0.0, "2050": 0.0 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2004_Projecoes_1980_2050/Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2004.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2008", "en": "IBGE 2008" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2008)", "en": "Net international migration, IBGE projection (Revision 2008)" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2008-11-27", "variant": "\"hipótese recomendada\" (TFT limite 1,5; sem migração internacional)", "values": { "2007": 0.0, "2008": 0.0, "2009": 0.0, "2010": 0.0, "2011": 0.0, "2012": 0.0, "2013": 0.0, "2014": 0.0, "2015": 0.0, "2016": 0.0, "2017": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2019": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2021": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2023": 0.0, "2024": 0.0, "2025": 0.0, "2026": 0.0, "2027": 0.0, "2028": 0.0, "2029": 0.0, "2030": 0.0, "2031": 0.0, "2032": 0.0, "2033": 0.0, "2034": 0.0, "2035": 0.0, "2036": 0.0, "2037": 0.0, "2038": 0.0, "2039": 0.0, "2040": 0.0, "2041": 0.0, "2042": 0.0, "2043": 0.0, "2044": 0.0, "2045": 0.0, "2046": 0.0, "2047": 0.0, "2048": 0.0, "2049": 0.0, "2050": 0.0 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Revisao_2008_Projecoes_1980_2050/Revisao_2008_Projecoes_1980_2050/Projecoes_1980_2050_revisao_2008.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2013", "en": "IBGE 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция, прогноз IBGE 2013 г.", "en": "Net international migration, IBGE projection 2013" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-08-29", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2011": 3.982, "2012": 3.982, "2013": 3.982, "2014": 3.982, "2015": 3.982, "2016": 8.304, "2017": 8.304, "2018": 8.304, "2019": 8.304, "2020": 8.304, "2021": 5.389, "2022": 5.389, "2023": 5.389, "2024": 5.389, "2025": 5.389, "2026": 4.415, "2027": 4.415, "2028": 4.415, "2029": 4.415, "2030": 4.415, "2031": 0.0, "2032": 0.0, "2033": 0.0, "2034": 0.0, "2035": 0.0, "2036": 0.0, "2037": 0.0, "2038": 0.0, "2039": 0.0, "2040": 0.0, "2041": 0.0, "2042": 0.0, "2043": 0.0, "2044": 0.0, "2045": 0.0, "2046": 0.0, "2047": 0.0, "2048": 0.0, "2049": 0.0, "2050": 0.0, "2051": 0.0, "2052": 0.0, "2053": 0.0, "2054": 0.0, "2055": 0.0, "2056": 0.0, "2057": 0.0, "2058": 0.0, "2059": 0.0, "2060": 0.0 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2013/projecoes_2013_indicadores_xls.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "IBGE 2018", "en": "IBGE 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция, прогноз IBGE (ревизия 2018)", "en": "Net international migration, IBGE projection (Revision 2018)" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2018-07-25", "variant": "single published projection", "values": { "2017": 16.998, "2018": 19.501, "2019": 15.601, "2020": 11.7, "2021": 7.8, "2022": 3.899, "2023": 0.0, "2024": 0.0, "2025": 0.0, "2026": 0.0, "2027": 0.0, "2028": 0.0, "2029": 0.0, "2030": 0.0, "2031": 0.0, "2032": 0.0, "2033": 0.0, "2034": 0.0, "2035": 0.0, "2036": 0.0, "2037": 0.0, "2038": 0.0, "2039": 0.0, "2040": 0.0, "2041": 0.0, "2042": 0.0, "2043": 0.0, "2044": 0.0, "2045": 0.0, "2046": 0.0, "2047": 0.0, "2048": 0.0, "2049": 0.0, "2050": 0.0, "2051": 0.0, "2052": 0.0, "2053": 0.0, "2054": 0.0, "2055": 0.0, "2056": 0.0, "2057": 0.0, "2058": 0.0, "2059": 0.0, "2060": 0.0 }, "src": "https://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Projecao_da_Populacao/Projecao_da_Populacao_2018/projecoes_2018_indicadores.xls" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2030 ], "view": "c=BRA&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "IBGE publishes one projection per revision (no high/low variants). Revisions 2000-2008 are national only and start from the 1980 population; 2013 starts from Census 2010, 2018 from 2010 with registered births to 2016, 2024 from Census 2022 with births/deaths to 2023. \"first_projected_year\" is the first year after the last observed input; \"back_estimates\" keep what each revision printed for earlier years.", "The actual TFR is itself an IBGE estimate and has been revised: the Revision 2024 puts 2010 at 1.75, whereas the Census 2010 TFR was published as 1.90 with the Brass P/F correction, since dropped. The Census 2022 direct TFR (1.55) agrees with the Revision 2024 estimate for 2022 (1.58).", "Births: projected births are corrected for under-registration; SINASC counts are uncorrected (coverage below 100% in the 2000s, about 99% recently). The Revision 2024 estimate for 2022 is 0.5% above SINASC. SINASC 2025 is preliminary.", "Net international migration: revisions 2004 and 2008 assumed a closed population (zero), 2000 a small loss fading to zero by 2010, 2013 a small gain (4-8 thousand a year), 2018 only the Venezuelan inflow (1-19.5 thousand a year, ending 2023). IBGE's first explicit estimates (Revision 2024 report, published Nov 2025) show net LOSSES of 56-393 thousand a year in 2010-2022 (immigrants minus emigrants, derived here by subtraction). These are estimates from Federal Police border records and census questions, revised methods rather than measured flows; earlier revisions had no such data.", "Population levels are not comparable across revisions without care: the Revision 2024 adjusts Census 2022 (203.1 million enumerated) for omission to 210.9 million on 1 July 2022, while the 2013 and 2018 projections expected 214.7-214.8 million.", "Year basis: IBGE labels births, deaths and migration by year and population at 1 July; the tables do not state whether flows are calendar or July-June years (calendar years assumed, as in the IBGE text)." ] }, { "id": "chl_tfr", "iso3": "CHL", "section": "demography", "metric": "tfr", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "ребёнка на женщину", "en": "children per woman", "dec": 2 }, "headline": { "ru": "Чили: прогноз 2018 года ждал 1,58 ребёнка на женщину на 2025 год — вышло 0,99", "en": "Chile: the INE 2018 projection expected fertility of 1.58 for 2025; the outcome was 0.99" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Чили: рождаемость — прогнозы INE и факт", "en": "Chile: fertility — INE projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Чили · рождаемость", "en": "Chile · fertility" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза статистического ведомства Чили сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 2, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2018 года: ждал на 2025 год 1,58 ребёнка на женщину, вышло 0,99 (−37,3%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of INE Chile checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 2, above in 0. The largest miss: INE 2018 expected 1.58 for 2025; the outcome was 0.99 (−37.3%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (INE, статистика рождений, календарные годы; прогноз 2018 года — по годам июль–июнь)", "en": "Actual (INE vital statistics, calendar years; the 2018 projection uses July–June years)" }, "values": { "1992": 2.45, "1993": 2.4, "1994": 2.35, "1995": 2.26, "1996": 2.22, "1997": 2.16, "1998": 2.12, "1999": 2.05, "2000": 2.03, "2001": 2, "2002": 1.93, "2003": 1.89, "2004": 1.87, "2005": 1.83, "2006": 1.82, "2007": 1.87, "2008": 1.91, "2009": 1.94, "2010": 1.92, "2011": 1.88, "2012": 1.84, "2013": 1.82, "2014": 1.87, "2015": 1.81, "2016": 1.7, "2017": 1.58, "2018": 1.57, "2019": 1.47, "2020": 1.35, "2021": 1.22, "2022": 1.29, "2023": 1.18, "2024": 1.05, "2025": 0.99 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/nacimientos-matrimonios-y-defunciones/cuadros-estadisticos/series-hist%C3%B3ricas/series-vitales-1992-2025%28p%29.xlsx?sfvrsn=bfbe614_4", "definition": "INE TGF: 5 x sum of age-specific rates, numerator = corrected live births by age of mother (prorated for unknown age), denominator = women by age at 30 June from INE EEPP base Census 2024." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "INE 2014", "en": "INE 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "СКР — обновление INE 2014 (прогноз 2013-2020)", "en": "TFR - INE 2014 update (projection 2013-2020)" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2014-09-04", "variant": "single projection", "values": { "2015": 1.8166, "2020": 1.7648 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/cuadros-estadisticos/proyecciones-anteriores/base-2002-(actualizaci%C3%B3n-2014)/base-2002-(2014)-pa%C3%ADs-y-regiones_pob-total-e-indicadores.xlsx?sfvrsn=92d0b299_3" }, { "label": { "ru": "INE 2018", "en": "INE 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "СКР — прогноз INE 2018 (база перепись 2017)", "en": "TFR - INE 2018 projection (base Census 2017)" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2018-12-19", "variant": "single (official) projection", "values": { "2019": 1.6, "2020": 1.6, "2021": 1.59, "2022": 1.59, "2023": 1.58, "2024": 1.58, "2025": 1.58, "2026": 1.58, "2027": 1.57, "2028": 1.57, "2029": 1.57, "2030": 1.57, "2031": 1.58, "2032": 1.58, "2033": 1.59, "2034": 1.59, "2035": 1.59, "2036": 1.6, "2037": 1.6, "2038": 1.61, "2039": 1.61, "2040": 1.62, "2041": 1.62, "2042": 1.62, "2043": 1.63, "2044": 1.63, "2045": 1.64, "2046": 1.65, "2047": 1.65, "2048": 1.66, "2049": 1.66, "2050": 1.67, "2051": 1.67 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/cuadros-estadisticos/base-2017/ine_estimaciones-y-proyecciones-de-poblaci%C3%B3n-1992-2050_base-2017_tabulados.xlsx?sfvrsn=68eefb1_9" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=CHL&i=tfr,births&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Year bases differ: INE EEPP-2017 flows are 1 July-30 June (keyed here by end year), EEPP-1992/2002 are 5-year mid-year periods (annual averages), EEPP-2014 and EEPP-2024 and all vital statistics are calendar years. Comparisons across bases are approximate (half-year offset).", "Births: projections use \"true\" (corrected) births; compare with chl_births_corrected_ine. Observed registered births are ~0.1-2% lower (larger gap in the 1990s).", "\"Actual\" net migration and population are INE reconstructions (EEPP-2024, after Census 2024), not direct measurements; EEPP-2017 had its own, different back-estimates (stored in its back_estimates). Context only (nothing derived from it): INE-SERMIG estimate of 1,918,583 foreign residents at 31 Dec 2023 (indicator panel on https://www.ine.gob.cl/estadisticas-por-tema/demografia-y-poblacion/estimaciones-y-proyecciones-de-poblacion); INE notes the foreign population roughly doubled between 2017 and 2024.", "Actual TFR is INE's 2026 recalculation with base-2024 denominators (2024-2025 provisional); TFRs printed in older yearbooks used older population denominators and differ in the 2nd decimal.", "EEPP-2002 annual population values are INE linear interpolations between quinquennial points; EEPP-1992 (1995) values were hand-transcribed from a scanned PDF (checksums: men+women=total; births-deaths=natural increase; 5-year population change = 5 x annual growth).", "Some projected years were already (partly) elapsed when an edition was published; they are listed in elapsed_at_publication and should not be read as genuine forecasts (e.g. EEPP-2024 fixed 2025 TFR at 0.97 from provisional births).", "Not covered: INE regional/communal projections (same vintages); the 1987 INE-CELADE projection (base 1982) is not on ine.gob.cl." ] }, { "id": "chl_births", "iso3": "CHL", "section": "demography", "metric": "births", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. рождений в год", "en": "thousand births a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Чили: прогноз 2018 года ждал рождений 235 тыс. на 2025 год — вышло 147 тыс.", "en": "Chile: the INE 2018 projection expected births of 235k for 2025; the outcome was 147k" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Чили: рождения — прогнозы INE и факт", "en": "Chile: births — INE projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Чили · рождения", "en": "Chile · births" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза статистического ведомства Чили сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 2, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2018 года: ждал на 2025 год 235 тыс., вышло 147 тыс. (−37,7%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of INE Chile checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 2, above in 0. The largest miss: INE 2018 expected 235k for 2025; the outcome was 147k (−37.7%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (INE, рождения с поправкой; прогноз 2018 года — по годам июль–июнь)", "en": "Actual (INE, corrected births; the 2018 projection uses July–June years)" }, "values": { "1992": 294.218, "1993": 289.419, "1994": 285.228, "1995": 275.756, "1996": 272.161, "1997": 265.56, "1998": 261.866, "1999": 254.169, "2000": 252.08, "2001": 248.728, "2002": 241.146, "2003": 236.903, "2004": 235.585, "2005": 231.931, "2006": 233.028, "2007": 241.044, "2008": 247.233, "2009": 252.691, "2010": 251.304, "2011": 247.909, "2012": 244.128, "2013": 242.439, "2014": 251.384, "2015": 245.042, "2016": 232.062, "2017": 219.439, "2018": 222.001, "2019": 210.42, "2020": 195.21, "2021": 177.479, "2022": 189.559, "2023": 174.292, "2024": 154.644, "2025": 146.685 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/nacimientos-matrimonios-y-defunciones/cuadros-estadisticos/series-hist%C3%B3ricas/series-vitales-1992-2025%28p%29.xlsx?sfvrsn=bfbe614_4", "definition": "INE \"Nacimientos corregidos\": live births occurring in the calendar year and registered up to 31 March of the following year (statistical calendar), raised by INE for expected late registrations (INTAR method). This is the birth concept INE uses as input to its population estimates, so it is the like-for-like comparator for projected births." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "INE 2014", "en": "INE 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Рождения — обновление INE 2014", "en": "Births - INE 2014 update (projection 2013-2020)" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2014-09-04", "variant": "single projection", "values": { "2015": 251.279, "2020": 245.753 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/cuadros-estadisticos/proyecciones-anteriores/base-2002-(actualizaci%C3%B3n-2014)/base-2002-(2014)-pa%C3%ADs-y-regiones_pob-total-e-indicadores.xlsx?sfvrsn=92d0b299_3" }, { "label": { "ru": "INE 2018", "en": "INE 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Рождения — прогноз INE 2018 (база перепись 2017)", "en": "Births - INE 2018 projection (base Census 2017)" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2018-12-19", "variant": "single (official) projection", "values": { "2019": 230.759, "2020": 235.593, "2021": 238.667, "2022": 239.151, "2023": 238.366, "2024": 237.052, "2025": 235.377, "2026": 233.401, "2027": 231.176, "2028": 228.755, "2029": 226.19, "2030": 223.52, "2031": 222.526, "2032": 220.338, "2033": 218.134, "2034": 215.967, "2035": 213.894, "2036": 211.966, "2037": 210.217, "2038": 208.666, "2039": 207.328, "2040": 206.215, "2041": 205.329, "2042": 204.647, "2043": 204.123, "2044": 203.698, "2045": 203.319, "2046": 202.949, "2047": 202.566, "2048": 202.155, "2049": 201.707, "2050": 201.21, "2051": 201.302 }, "src": "https://www.ine.gob.cl/docs/default-source/proyecciones-de-poblacion/cuadros-estadisticos/base-2017/ine_estimaciones-y-proyecciones-de-poblaci%C3%B3n-1992-2050_base-2017_tabulados.xlsx?sfvrsn=68eefb1_9" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=CHL&i=births,tfr&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Year bases differ: INE EEPP-2017 flows are 1 July-30 June (keyed here by end year), EEPP-1992/2002 are 5-year mid-year periods (annual averages), EEPP-2014 and EEPP-2024 and all vital statistics are calendar years. Comparisons across bases are approximate (half-year offset).", "Births: projections use \"true\" (corrected) births; compare with chl_births_corrected_ine. Observed registered births are ~0.1-2% lower (larger gap in the 1990s).", "\"Actual\" net migration and population are INE reconstructions (EEPP-2024, after Census 2024), not direct measurements; EEPP-2017 had its own, different back-estimates (stored in its back_estimates). Context only (nothing derived from it): INE-SERMIG estimate of 1,918,583 foreign residents at 31 Dec 2023 (indicator panel on https://www.ine.gob.cl/estadisticas-por-tema/demografia-y-poblacion/estimaciones-y-proyecciones-de-poblacion); INE notes the foreign population roughly doubled between 2017 and 2024.", "Actual TFR is INE's 2026 recalculation with base-2024 denominators (2024-2025 provisional); TFRs printed in older yearbooks used older population denominators and differ in the 2nd decimal.", "EEPP-2002 annual population values are INE linear interpolations between quinquennial points; EEPP-1992 (1995) values were hand-transcribed from a scanned PDF (checksums: men+women=total; births-deaths=natural increase; 5-year population change = 5 x annual growth).", "Some projected years were already (partly) elapsed when an edition was published; they are listed in elapsed_at_publication and should not be read as genuine forecasts (e.g. EEPP-2024 fixed 2025 TFR at 0.97 from provisional births).", "Not covered: INE regional/communal projections (same vintages); the 1987 INE-CELADE projection (base 1982) is not on ine.gob.cl." ] }, { "id": "col_population", "iso3": "COL", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Колумбия: прогноз 1998 года ждал население 53,18 млн на 2015 год — вышло 46,31 млн", "en": "Colombia: the DANE 1998 projection expected a population of 53.18M for 2015; the outcome was 46.31M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Колумбия: население — прогнозы DANE и факт", "en": "Colombia: population — DANE projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Колумбия · население", "en": "Colombia · population" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов статистического ведомства Колумбии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 4 из 5, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 1998 года: ждал на 2015 год 53,18 млн, вышло 46,31 млн (−12,9%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "5 projections of DANE (the Colombian statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 4 of 5, above in 1. The largest miss: DANE 1998 expected 53.18M for 2015; the outcome was 46.31M (−12.9%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка DANE (на 30 июня)", "en": "DANE estimates (30 June)" }, "values": { "1985": 30419.892, "1986": 30980.812, "1987": 31550.132, "1988": 32124.173, "1989": 32697.847, "1990": 33268.154, "1991": 33840.991, "1992": 34425.915, "1993": 35032.308, "1994": 35629.174, "1995": 36229.83, "1996": 36830.574, "1997": 37426.532, "1998": 38012.359, "1999": 38585.016, "2000": 39140.08, "2001": 39674.811, "2002": 40190.679, "2003": 40693.254, "2004": 41188.093, "2005": 41671.878, "2006": 42170.126, "2007": 42658.63, "2008": 43134.017, "2009": 43608.63, "2010": 44086.292, "2011": 44553.416, "2012": 45001.571, "2013": 45434.942, "2014": 45866.01, "2015": 46313.898, "2016": 46830.116, "2017": 47419.2, "2018": 48258.494, "2019": 49266.526, "2020": 50390.79, "2021": 51115.637, "2022": 51643.565, "2023": 52117.067, "2024": 52613.753, "2025": 53057.212 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/censo2018/cambio-demografico/DCD-PrinInd-crecPobNac-1985-2017_VP.xlsx", "definition": "Population at 30 June. 1985-2017: CNPV-2018 retroprojection; 2018: census-based base population (CNPV 2018 adjusted for 8.5% omission); 2019-2025: DANE 2025 update. Estimates, not counts." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "DANE 1998", "en": "DANE 1998" }, "label_full": { "ru": "DANE 1998 (база — перепись 1993): численность населения", "en": "DANE c.1998 (1993-census base): population" }, "year": 1993, "published": "1998", "variant": "single (only) scenario", "values": { "1995": 38541.631, "1996": 39295.798, "1997": 40064.093, "1998": 40826.816, "1999": 41589.018, "2000": 42321.386, "2001": 43070.704, "2002": 43834.117, "2003": 44583.575, "2004": 45325.26, "2005": 46039.144, "2006": 46772.286, "2007": 47520.862, "2008": 48256.722, "2009": 48982.063, "2010": 49665.343, "2011": 50387.701, "2012": 51120.064, "2013": 51838.186, "2014": 52542.134, "2015": 53182.964 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/poblacion/series_proyecciones/proyecc5.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "DANE 2007", "en": "DANE 2007" }, "label_full": { "ru": "DANE 2007 (база — перепись 2005): численность населения", "en": "DANE 2007 (2005-census base): population" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2007-09", "variant": "single (only) scenario", "values": { "2006": 43405.956, "2007": 43926.929, "2008": 44451.147, "2009": 44978.832, "2010": 45509.584, "2011": 46044.601, "2012": 46581.823, "2013": 47121.089, "2014": 47661.787, "2015": 48203.405, "2016": 48747.708, "2017": 49291.609, "2018": 49834.24, "2019": 50374.478, "2020": 50911.747 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/poblacion/proyepobla06_20/proyecciones-nivel-nacional-departamental-por-sexo-y-edades-simples-hasta-80-anos-y-mas.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "DANE 2020", "en": "DANE 2020" }, "label_full": { "ru": "DANE 2020 (база — перепись 2018): численность населения", "en": "DANE 2020 (CNPV-2018 base): population" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2020-06-23", "variant": "single deterministic scenario", "values": { "2019": 49395.678, "2020": 50372.424, "2021": 51049.498, "2022": 51609.474, "2023": 52156.254, "2024": 52691.44, "2025": 53216.592, "2026": 53732.415, "2027": 54237.754, "2028": 54731.186, "2029": 55211.258, "2030": 55678.083, "2031": 56131.842, "2032": 56571.697, "2033": 56997.149, "2034": 57407.759, "2035": 57804.147, "2036": 58186.418, "2037": 58553.761, "2038": 58905.906, "2039": 59242.615, "2040": 59564.397, "2041": 59871.761, "2042": 60164.524, "2043": 60442.589, "2044": 60705.931, "2045": 60954.958, "2046": 61190.169, "2047": 61411.685, "2048": 61619.481, "2049": 61813.557, "2050": 61994.183, "2051": 62161.713, "2052": 62316.217, "2053": 62457.705, "2054": 62586.2, "2055": 62701.917, "2056": 62805.127, "2057": 62895.973, "2058": 62974.51, "2059": 63040.845, "2060": 63095.188, "2061": 63137.811, "2062": 63168.9, "2063": 63188.583, "2064": 63197.004, "2065": 63194.359, "2066": 63180.922, "2067": 63156.902, "2068": 63122.488, "2069": 63077.873, "2070": 63023.334 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/censo2018/proyecciones-de-poblacion/Nacional/anexo-proyecciones-poblacion-NacionalArea2018_2070.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "DANE 2023", "en": "DANE 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "DANE 2023 (обновление после COVID-19): численность населения", "en": "DANE 2023 post-COVID update: population" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2023-03-22", "variant": "single deterministic scenario", "values": { "2023": 52215.506, "2024": 52695.954, "2025": 53110.61, "2026": 53474.638, "2027": 53808.014, "2028": 54119.569, "2029": 54416.615, "2030": 54705.567, "2031": 54986.439, "2032": 55255.685, "2033": 55512.668, "2034": 55757.46, "2035": 55990.158, "2036": 56209.177, "2037": 56412.923, "2038": 56601.485, "2039": 56775.073, "2040": 56933.436, "2041": 57076.544, "2042": 57204.837, "2043": 57318.606, "2044": 57417.736, "2045": 57502.165, "2046": 57572.263, "2047": 57628.427, "2048": 57670.653, "2049": 57698.97, "2050": 57713.467, "2051": 57714.371, "2052": 57701.911, "2053": 57676.266, "2054": 57637.643, "2055": 57586.272, "2056": 57522.472, "2057": 57446.548, "2058": 57358.727, "2059": 57259.168, "2060": 57147.99, "2061": 57025.313, "2062": 56891.212, "2063": 56745.646, "2064": 56588.535, "2065": 56419.766, "2066": 56239.268, "2067": 56046.987, "2068": 55842.82, "2069": 55626.697, "2070": 55398.561 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/censo2018/cambio-demografico/DCD-PrinInd-crecPobNac-2020-ActPostCOVID.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "DANE 2025", "en": "DANE 2025" }, "label_full": { "ru": "DANE 2025 (обновление PPED): численность населения", "en": "DANE 2025 PPED update: population" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2025-07-18", "variant": "single deterministic scenario", "values": { "2025": 53057.212, "2026": 53399.171, "2027": 53712.233, "2028": 54001.502, "2029": 54269.406, "2030": 54518.223, "2031": 54747.818, "2032": 54958.383, "2033": 55149.988, "2034": 55322.674, "2035": 55476.504, "2036": 55611.578, "2037": 55728.042, "2038": 55826.079, "2039": 55905.896, "2040": 55967.762, "2041": 56011.924, "2042": 56038.651, "2043": 56048.194, "2044": 56040.786, "2045": 56016.662, "2046": 55976.045, "2047": 55919.179, "2048": 55846.298, "2049": 55757.657, "2050": 55653.49, "2051": 55534.043, "2052": 55399.539, "2053": 55250.202, "2054": 55086.26, "2055": 54907.921, "2056": 54715.374, "2057": 54508.782, "2058": 54288.293, "2059": 54054.043, "2060": 53806.118, "2061": 53544.613, "2062": 53269.61, "2063": 52981.169, "2064": 52679.381, "2065": 52364.311, "2066": 52036.013, "2067": 51694.579, "2068": 51340.058, "2069": 50972.537, "2070": 50592.097 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/censo2018/proyecciones-de-poblacion/Nacional/PPED-AreaNac-2018-2070.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1990, 2030 ], "view": "c=COL&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "DANE projections report model births corrected for registration omission; EEVV counts registered births. Before 2020 the gap between DANE's own back-estimates and EEVV was 10-19% (2005-2017); in 2023-2025 the 2023 and 2025 editions exceed EEVV by 39-60%, far beyond plausible omission.", "EEVV TFR (one decimal) uses denominators from the Aug-2025 projections; projection TFRs are model values.", "There is no observed net-migration series for Colombia; \"actual\" net migration is DANE's own model estimate, revised with hindsight (2018-2024 from the 2025 edition). Treat it as an estimate.", "Older editions (1993- and 2005-based) give 5-year totals between 30 June dates; period_values are period totals / 5 (annual averages). Calendar-year EEVV counts are offset by half a year from these periods.", "The 2005-based report exists in two versions at the same URL: Sept 2007 (used here, via Wayback) and the March-2010 revision (live); only births differ (<0.4%).", "Population \"actuals\" are the current DANE estimates (2018-census based), not head counts; the CNPV-2018 base adds 8.5% for omission.", "Year basis of the 2018-based component series is DANE's annual label (\"año calendario\"); the model works with 30 June populations." ] }, { "id": "col_migration", "iso3": "COL", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Колумбия: в 2019–2024 годах миграция добавила 1,68 млн, а прогноз 2020 года ждал 911 тыс.", "en": "Colombia: the DANE 2020 projection expected net migration of +911k for 2019–2024; the outcome was +1.68M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Колумбия: чистая миграция — прогнозы DANE и оценки DANE", "en": "Colombia: net migration — DANE projections vs DANE estimates" }, "short": { "ru": "Колумбия · миграция", "en": "Colombia · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза статистического ведомства Колумбии против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 2 из 2. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2020 года: за 2019–2024 ждали +911 тыс., вышло +1,68 млн. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of DANE (the Colombian statistical office) against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 2 of 2. The largest miss: DANE 2020 expected +911k for 2019–2024; the outcome was +1.68M. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка DANE (модельная: наблюдаемого ряда нет)", "en": "DANE estimates (model-based: there is no observed series)" }, "values": { "1985": -23.988, "1986": -24.694, "1987": -27.424, "1988": -34.542, "1989": -47.055, "1990": -59.014, "1991": -56.858, "1992": -46.499, "1993": -47.532, "1994": -49.142, "1995": -51.939, "1996": -54.308, "1997": -60.693, "1998": -67.733, "1999": -74.64, "2000": -85.559, "2001": -94.291, "2002": -100.301, "2003": -97.07, "2004": -91.757, "2005": -69.679, "2006": -60.857, "2007": -62.472, "2008": -62.655, "2009": -41.913, "2010": -36.704, "2011": -44.564, "2012": -57.316, "2013": -57.885, "2014": -46.857, "2015": -10.086, "2016": 102.633, "2017": 143.625, "2018": 626.028, "2019": 740.422, "2020": 378.99, "2021": 195.752, "2022": 134.833, "2023": 136.272, "2024": 98.033 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/censo2018/cambio-demografico/DCD-Mig-EstSexNal-Dep-1985-2017_VP.xlsx", "definition": "Immigrants minus emigrants (all nationalities), model-based. 1985-2017: CNPV-2018 retroprojection; 2018-2024: DANE 2025 update (GEIH-informed Bayesian estimates). No registered (observed) net-migration series exists." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "DANE 2020", "en": "DANE 2020" }, "label_full": { "ru": "DANE 2020 (база — перепись 2018): чистая международная миграция", "en": "DANE 2020 (CNPV-2018 base): net international migration" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2020-06-23", "variant": "single deterministic scenario", "values": { "2019": 640.205, "2020": 79.866, "2021": 51.794, "2022": 44.196, "2023": 45.882, "2024": 49.365, "2025": 54.164, "2026": 58.868, "2027": 63.142, "2028": 66.728, "2029": 69.714, "2030": 72.05, "2031": 73.072, "2032": 74.103, "2033": 75.127, "2034": 76.158, "2035": 77.18, "2036": 77.211, "2037": 77.237, "2038": 77.266, "2039": 77.292, "2040": 77.323, "2041": 77.219, "2042": 77.115, "2043": 77.017, "2044": 76.913, "2045": 76.809, "2046": 76.806, "2047": 76.801, "2048": 76.8, "2049": 76.795, "2050": 76.792, "2051": 76.917, "2052": 77.039, "2053": 77.169, "2054": 77.291, "2055": 77.416, "2056": 77.654, "2057": 77.886, "2058": 78.134, "2059": 78.366, "2060": 78.604, "2061": 78.956, "2062": 79.306, "2063": 79.658, "2064": 80.008, "2065": 80.36, "2066": 80.77, "2067": 81.187, "2068": 81.604, "2069": 82.021, "2070": 82.431 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/censo2018/cambio-demografico/anexos-estimaciones-migracion-por-sexo-nal-2018-2070-dptal-2018-2050.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "DANE 2023", "en": "DANE 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "DANE 2023 (обновление после COVID-19): чистая международная миграция", "en": "DANE 2023 post-COVID update: net international migration" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2023-03-22", "variant": "single deterministic scenario", "values": { "2023": 128.859, "2024": 71.864, "2025": 16.508, "2026": -8.177, "2027": -22.092, "2028": -26.587, "2029": -23.74, "2030": -16.407, "2031": -14.76, "2032": -13.109, "2033": -11.467, "2034": -9.816, "2035": -8.169, "2036": -8.615, "2037": -9.061, "2038": -9.503, "2039": -9.949, "2040": -10.395, "2041": -10.506, "2042": -10.616, "2043": -10.735, "2044": -10.845, "2045": -10.956, "2046": -10.839, "2047": -10.716, "2048": -10.592, "2049": -10.469, "2050": -10.352, "2051": -10.042, "2052": -9.736, "2053": -9.424, "2054": -9.118, "2055": -8.808, "2056": -8.341, "2057": -7.868, "2058": -7.391, "2059": -6.918, "2060": -6.451, "2061": -5.864, "2062": -5.287, "2063": -4.692, "2064": -4.115, "2065": -3.528, "2066": -2.832, "2067": -2.136, "2068": -1.446, "2069": -0.75, "2070": -0.054 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/censo2018/cambio-demografico/DCD-Mig-EstSexNal-Dep-2020-ActPostCOVID.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "DANE 2025", "en": "DANE 2025" }, "label_full": { "ru": "DANE 2025 (обновление PPED): чистая международная миграция", "en": "DANE 2025 PPED update: net international migration" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2025-07-30", "variant": "single deterministic scenario", "values": { "2025": 13.225, "2026": 1.181, "2027": -5.01, "2028": -8.202, "2029": -8.75, "2030": -9.011, "2031": -8.852, "2032": -8.502, "2033": -8.049, "2034": -7.534, "2035": -6.995, "2036": -6.448, "2037": -5.88, "2038": -5.337, "2039": -4.806, "2040": -4.279, "2041": -3.744, "2042": -3.272, "2043": -2.806, "2044": -2.403, "2045": -1.98, "2046": -1.634, "2047": -1.306, "2048": -0.999, "2049": -0.728, "2050": -0.486, "2051": -0.264, "2052": -0.04, "2053": 0.155, "2054": 0.324, "2055": 0.522, "2056": 0.682, "2057": 0.822, "2058": 0.921, "2059": 0.998, "2060": 1.081, "2061": 1.144, "2062": 1.189, "2063": 1.212, "2064": 1.246, "2065": 1.269, "2066": 1.3, "2067": 1.329, "2068": 1.354, "2069": 1.367, "2070": 1.389 }, "src": "https://www.dane.gov.co/files/censo2018/cambio-demografico/DCD-Mig-EstSexNal-Reg-2018-2070_VP.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2010, 2030 ], "view": "c=COL&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "DANE projections report model births corrected for registration omission; EEVV counts registered births. Before 2020 the gap between DANE's own back-estimates and EEVV was 10-19% (2005-2017); in 2023-2025 the 2023 and 2025 editions exceed EEVV by 39-60%, far beyond plausible omission.", "EEVV TFR (one decimal) uses denominators from the Aug-2025 projections; projection TFRs are model values.", "There is no observed net-migration series for Colombia; \"actual\" net migration is DANE's own model estimate, revised with hindsight (2018-2024 from the 2025 edition). Treat it as an estimate.", "Older editions (1993- and 2005-based) give 5-year totals between 30 June dates; period_values are period totals / 5 (annual averages). Calendar-year EEVV counts are offset by half a year from these periods.", "The 2005-based report exists in two versions at the same URL: Sept 2007 (used here, via Wayback) and the March-2010 revision (live); only births differ (<0.4%).", "Population \"actuals\" are the current DANE estimates (2018-census based), not head counts; the CNPV-2018 base adds 8.5% for omission.", "Year basis of the 2018-based component series is DANE's annual label (\"año calendario\"); the model works with 30 June populations." ] }, { "id": "arg_population", "iso3": "ARG", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Аргентина: прогноз 1994 года ждал население 45,11 млн на 2022 год — вышло 46,14 млн", "en": "Argentina: the INDEC 1994 projection expected a population of 45.11M for 2022; the outcome was 46.14M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Аргентина: население — прогнозы INDEC и переписи", "en": "Argentina: population — INDEC projections vs the censuses" }, "short": { "ru": "Аргентина · население", "en": "Argentina · population" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза статистического ведомства Аргентины сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 1 из 3, выше — в 2. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 1994 года: ждал на 2022 год 45,11 млн, вышло 46,14 млн (+2,3%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of INDEC (the Argentine statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 1 of 3, above in 2. The largest miss: INDEC 1994 expected 45.11M for 2022; the outcome was 46.14M (+2.3%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка INDEC по переписям 2010 и 2022 годов (на 1 июля, с поправкой на недоучёт)", "en": "INDEC estimates from the 2010 and 2022 censuses (1 July, corrected for undercount)" }, "values": { "2010": 40788.453, "2022": 46135.579 }, "src": "https://www.indec.gob.ar/ftp/cuadros/poblacion/proyecciones_nacionales_2022_2040_c1_c2.xlsx", "definition": "INDEC base population of the projection made after each census (1 July of the census year), corrected for census omission." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "INDEC 1994", "en": "INDEC 1994" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 30 июня — прогноз INDEC-CELADE 1994", "en": "Population at 30 June - INDEC-CELADE 1994 projection" }, "year": 1991, "published": "1994", "variant": "variante media o recomendada", "values": { "1991": 32965.832, "1992": 33374.635, "1993": 33777.793, "1994": 34180.171, "1995": 34586.635, "1996": 34997.188, "1997": 35408.587, "1998": 35820.825, "1999": 36233.898, "2000": 36647.798, "2001": 37063.765, "2002": 37481.802, "2003": 37900.052, "2004": 38316.656, "2005": 38729.755, "2006": 39140.362, "2007": 39549.716, "2008": 39956.299, "2009": 40358.591, "2010": 40755.075, "2011": 41146.214, "2012": 41533.019, "2014": 42290.853, "2015": 42660.493, "2016": 43021.99, "2017": 43375.806, "2018": 43724.532, "2019": 44070.761, "2020": 44417.081, "2021": 44763.938, "2022": 45109.605, "2023": 45453.414, "2024": 45794.7, "2025": 46132.796, "2026": 46468.255, "2027": 46801.522, "2028": 47131.766, "2029": 47458.157, "2030": 47779.864, "2031": 48097.4, "2032": 48411.319, "2033": 48720.851, "2034": 49025.229, "2035": 49323.682, "2036": 49616.396, "2037": 49903.883, "2038": 50185.866, "2039": 50462.069, "2040": 50732.215, "2041": 50996.115, "2042": 51253.954, "2043": 51506.015, "2044": 51752.581, "2045": 51993.934, "2046": 52227.524, "2047": 52453.161, "2048": 52674.673, "2049": 52895.887, "2050": 53120.63 }, "src": "https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstreams/34b536fc-2d4f-4fed-9030-c3681fbfd8ae/download" }, { "label": { "ru": "INDEC 2004", "en": "INDEC 2004" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 30 июня — прогноз INDEC 2004", "en": "Population at 30 June - INDEC 2004 projection (base Census 2001)" }, "year": 2001, "published": "2004-12-06", "variant": "variante media o recomendada", "values": { "2001": 37156.195, "2002": 37515.632, "2003": 37869.73, "2004": 38226.051, "2005": 38592.15, "2006": 38970.611, "2007": 39356.383, "2008": 39745.613, "2009": 40134.425, "2010": 40518.951, "2011": 40900.496, "2012": 41281.631, "2013": 41660.417, "2014": 42034.884, "2015": 42403.087 }, "src": "https://ipiec.tierradelfuego.gob.ar/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Estimaciones_Proyecciones_Pa%C3%ADs_1950_2015.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "INDEC 2013", "en": "INDEC 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 1 июля — прогноз INDEC 2013", "en": "Population at 1 July - INDEC 2013 projection (base Census 2010)" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-11", "variant": "single projection", "values": { "2011": 41261.49, "2012": 41733.271, "2013": 42202.935, "2014": 42669.5, "2015": 43131.966, "2016": 43590.368, "2017": 44044.811, "2018": 44494.502, "2019": 44938.712, "2020": 45376.763, "2021": 45808.747, "2022": 46234.83, "2023": 46654.581, "2024": 47067.641, "2025": 47473.76, "2026": 47873.268, "2027": 48266.524, "2028": 48653.385, "2029": 49033.678, "2030": 49407.265, "2031": 49774.276, "2032": 50134.861, "2033": 50488.93, "2034": 50836.373, "2035": 51177.087, "2036": 51511.042, "2037": 51838.245, "2038": 52158.61, "2039": 52472.054, "2040": 52778.477 }, "src": "https://www.indec.gob.ar/ftp/cuadros/publicaciones/proyeccionesyestimaciones_nac_2010_2040.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "INDEC 2025", "en": "INDEC 2025" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Население на 1 июля — прогноз INDEC 2025", "en": "Population at 1 July - INDEC 2025 projection (base Census 2022)" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2025-10-15", "variant": "variante media", "values": { "2023": 46214.462, "2024": 46301.743, "2025": 46387.098, "2026": 46466.688, "2027": 46540.071, "2028": 46609.533, "2029": 46676.999, "2030": 46744.389, "2031": 46814.264, "2032": 46886.737, "2033": 46961.803, "2034": 47039.274, "2035": 47118.716, "2036": 47199.436, "2037": 47280.504, "2038": 47360.804, "2039": 47439.108, "2040": 47514.116 }, "src": "https://www.indec.gob.ar/ftp/cuadros/poblacion/proyecciones_nacionales_2022_2040_c3_6.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1990, 2030 ], "view": "c=ARG&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Argentina has no official annual TFR series: DEIS publishes counts and general fertility rates only; INDEC shows its estimated annual TFR only in an unlabeled chart. Actual TFR here is limited to INDEC text values (2017, 2022) and DNP calculations (2020, 2021); no TFR was derived by the compiler.", "Projected births exist only in the 1994 edition (quinquennial averages of \"true\" births). Later INDEC editions publish only crude birth rates (stored as crude_birth_rate_per_1000); births were NOT derived from them.", "DEIS births are registrations (events of the year or the previous year registered in the year), not corrected for late registration; they are the best official annual count. Missing in accessible official files: 1990-1999, 2001, 2004.", "\"Actual\" net migration is itself an INDEC estimate and has been revised in sign: INDEC 2004 put 1995-2000 at -100,000, INDEC 2013 put 2001-2010 at -45,103, INDEC 2025 puts 2001-2009 at +150,805 and 2010-2022 at about +225,000.", "The INDEC-CELADE 1995/96 revision (the official projection until 2004) is known only through INDEC 2004 and Ministry of Health quotations; its own report was not found online.", "The 1994 edition is an OCR'd scan in the CEPAL repository; all used numbers were checked against page images and internal checksums; population 2013 is excluded as an apparent misprint.", "Some projected years/periods were already (partly) elapsed at publication; see elapsed_at_publication.", "Reference dates: INDEC 1994/2004 populations at 30 June, INDEC 2013/2025 at 1 July; quinquennial flows 30 June-30 June." ] }, { "id": "per_population", "iso3": "PER", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Перу: прогноз 2001 года ждал население 35,73 млн на 2025 год — вышло 34,16 млн", "en": "Peru: the INEI 2001 projection expected a population of 35.73M for 2025; the outcome was 34.16M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Перу: население — прогнозы INEI и факт", "en": "Peru: population — INEI projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Перу · население", "en": "Peru · population" }, "note": { "ru": "4 прогноза статистического ведомства Перу сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 4 из 4, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2001 года: ждал на 2025 год 35,73 млн, вышло 34,16 млн (−4,4%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "4 projections of INEI (the Peruvian statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 4 of 4, above in 0. The largest miss: INEI 2001 expected 35.73M for 2025; the outcome was 34.16M (−4.4%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка INEI на 30 июня (до 2019 года) и перепись 2025 года (с поправкой на недоучёт)", "en": "INEI estimates for 30 June (to 2019) and the 2025 census (corrected for undercount)" }, "values": { "1990": 22031.627, "1991": 22479.5, "1992": 22924.304, "1993": 22639.443, "1994": 23805.63, "1995": 24242.6, "1996": 24689.213, "1997": 25145.317, "1998": 25592.876, "1999": 26013.829, "2000": 26390.142, "2001": 26714.547, "2002": 26999.085, "2003": 27254.632, "2004": 27492.091, "2005": 27722.342, "2006": 27934.784, "2007": 28220.764, "2008": 28300.372, "2009": 28485.319, "2010": 28692.915, "2011": 28905.725, "2012": 29113.162, "2013": 29341.346, "2014": 29616.414, "2015": 29964.499, "2016": 30422.831, "2017": 31237.385, "2018": 31562.13, "2019": 32131.4, "2025": 34157.732 }, "src": "https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1665/libro.pdf", "definition": "Population at 30 June estimated in the 2019 (2017-census based) series, which INEI still uses as official; estimates, not counts." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "INEI 1995", "en": "INEI 1995" }, "label_full": { "ru": "INEI 1995 (база — перепись 1993): численность населения", "en": "INEI 1995 (1993-census base): population" }, "year": 1993, "published": "1995", "variant": "Hipótesis media (recommended/official)", "values": { "2000": 25661.69, "2005": 27803.947, "2010": 29885.34, "2015": 31875.784, "2020": 33756.697, "2025": 35518.232 }, "src": "https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib0015/N120/anexo005.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "INEI 2001", "en": "INEI 2001" }, "label_full": { "ru": "INEI 2001 (BAD № 35): численность населения", "en": "INEI 2001 (BAD 35): population" }, "year": 1993, "published": "2001-08", "variant": "Hipótesis media (oficial)", "values": { "2001": 26346.84, "2002": 26748.972, "2003": 27148.101, "2004": 27546.574, "2005": 27946.774, "2006": 28348.7, "2007": 28750.77, "2008": 29152.987, "2009": 29555.329, "2010": 29957.804, "2011": 30361.452, "2012": 30766.292, "2013": 31170.724, "2014": 31573.168, "2015": 31972.027, "2016": 32368.687, "2017": 32764.198, "2018": 33156.498, "2019": 33543.525, "2020": 33923.224, "2021": 34294.231, "2022": 34657.925, "2023": 35016.333, "2024": 35371.496, "2025": 35725.458, "2026": 36079.336, "2027": 36431.784, "2028": 36781.104, "2029": 37125.598, "2030": 37463.58, "2031": 37795.592, "2032": 38122.764, "2033": 38444.264, "2034": 38759.299, "2035": 39067.037, "2036": 39367.808, "2037": 39662.156, "2038": 39949.593, "2039": 40229.63, "2040": 40501.75, "2041": 40765.859, "2042": 41022.271, "2043": 41271.174, "2044": 41512.764, "2045": 41747.214, "2046": 41948.598, "2047": 42155.541, "2048": 42368.186, "2049": 42586.696, "2050": 42811.226 }, "src": "https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib0466/Libro.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "INEI 2009", "en": "INEI 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "INEI 2009 (BAD № 36, перепись 2007): численность населения", "en": "INEI 2009 (BAD 36, 2007-census base): population" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2009-03", "variant": "Hipótesis media (oficial)", "values": { "2010": 29461.933, "2011": 29797.694, "2012": 30135.875, "2013": 30475.144, "2014": 30814.175, "2015": 31151.643, "2016": 31488.625, "2017": 31826.018, "2018": 32162.184, "2019": 32495.51, "2020": 32824.358, "2021": 33149.016, "2022": 33470.569, "2023": 33788.589, "2024": 34102.668, "2025": 34412.393, "2026": 34718.378, "2027": 35020.909, "2028": 35319.039, "2029": 35611.848, "2030": 35898.422, "2031": 36179.425, "2032": 36455.488, "2033": 36725.576, "2034": 36988.666, "2035": 37243.725, "2036": 37491.075, "2037": 37731.399, "2038": 37964.224, "2039": 38189.086, "2040": 38405.474, "2041": 38613.529, "2042": 38813.569, "2043": 39005.416, "2044": 39188.891, "2045": 39363.812, "2046": 39530.305, "2047": 39688.488, "2048": 39838.182, "2049": 39979.209, "2050": 40111.393 }, "src": "https://proyectos.inei.gob.pe/web/biblioineipub/bancopub/Est/Lib0845/libro.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "INEI 2019", "en": "INEI 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "INEI 2019 (BAD № 38, перепись 2017): численность населения", "en": "INEI 2019 (BAD 38, 2017-census base): population" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2019-06", "variant": "single scenario", "values": { "2020": 32625.948, "2021": 33035.304, "2022": 33396.698, "2023": 33725.844, "2024": 34038.457, "2025": 34350.244, "2026": 34660.114, "2027": 34957.6, "2028": 35244.33, "2029": 35521.943, "2030": 35792.079, "2031": 36054.888, "2032": 36309.29, "2033": 36555.034, "2034": 36791.909, "2035": 37019.661, "2036": 37238.19, "2037": 37447.651, "2038": 37648.215, "2039": 37840.036, "2040": 38023.29, "2041": 38198.236, "2042": 38364.756, "2043": 38522.478, "2044": 38670.99, "2045": 38809.92, "2046": 38939.517, "2047": 39060.054, "2048": 39171.129, "2049": 39272.354, "2050": 39363.351, "2051": 39441.543, "2052": 39507.899, "2053": 39564.684, "2054": 39614.168, "2055": 39658.612, "2056": 39698.467, "2057": 39732.214, "2058": 39759.192, "2059": 39778.738, "2060": 39790.19, "2061": 39793.386, "2062": 39788.777, "2063": 39776.594, "2064": 39757.065, "2065": 39730.421, "2066": 39696.128, "2067": 39654.029, "2068": 39604.934, "2069": 39549.647, "2070": 39488.989 }, "src": "https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1665/libro.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 1990, 2030 ], "view": "c=PER&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Projection births are model births; CNV counts births with an online birth certificate (no official completeness estimate; manual records excluded from 2019), so CNV understates births to an unknown degree.", "ENDES TFR is a survey estimate for the three years before each survey (95% CI about +-0.1); INEI does not publish a register-based TFR.", "There is no official annual net-migration series. The admin proxy (compiler-derived difference of two INEI/Migraciones cohort stocks) is indicative only; INEI's BAD 38 estimate is a model estimate.", "Quinquennial values are INEI's; annual values for the 2009 and 2019 editions are INEI's own interpolations (Boletines Especiales 17 and 24). Births in BAD 35/36/38 are printed rounded to thousands.", "Census totals refer to census dates (July/October/Aug-Oct), projections to 30 June.", "The 2001 edition is called \"BAD 35\"; the 1995 edition was BAD 34, available online only through the Feb-1996 departmental report (Lib0015).", "A census was taken in 2025 (first results May 2026) but INEI had not published new national projections by Oct 2026." ] }, { "id": "idn_population", "iso3": "IDN", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Индонезия: прогноз 2018 года ждал население 282,5 млн на 2025 год — вышло 284,7 млн", "en": "Indonesia: the Bappenas 2018 projection expected a population of 282.5M for 2025; the outcome was 284.7M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Индонезия: население — прогнозы BPS и Bappenas и переписи", "en": "Indonesia: population — BPS and Bappenas projections vs the censuses" }, "short": { "ru": "Индонезия · население", "en": "Indonesia · population" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза статистического ведомства и Министерства планирования Индонезии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 1 из 3, выше — в 2. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2018 года: ждал на 2025 год 282,5 млн, вышло 284,7 млн (+0,8%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of BPS and Bappenas (Indonesia) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 1 of 3, above in 2. The largest miss: Bappenas 2018 expected 282.5M for 2025; the outcome was 284.7M (+0.8%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Переписи 2010 и 2020 годов и обследования SUPAS 2015 и 2025 (BPS, на свои даты)", "en": "The 2010 and 2020 censuses and SUPAS 2015 and 2025 surveys (BPS, at their own dates)" }, "values": { "2010": 237640, "2015": 255180, "2020": 270200, "2025": 284670 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260811061850/https://web-api.bps.go.id/download.php?f=QXzDLWllPBkxSklA7WEnNC9VamJpY3Fkb2RRN1R6RFc3UzNkY2hBbktpS2tGcU9LTzFaUFdpS2hrOTFFSnUxei9JZmxIekJiNXdrdStoQnRiTkpLbERZaS8rTFhZdEp4UnhxYnlpendiZ2VoY2lkMzA4cThmelpDNlZYM2tSdzlKcGtwNnBBZUxGY2RkNlUyS1NMWjVNZHdPZXBJMUJMSFd0elhvdz09", "definition": "Population counted by SP2010, SUPAS 2015, SP2020 and SUPAS 2025 at their own reference dates (not mid-year), thousands, published in millions with two decimals." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "BPS 2013", "en": "BPS 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз BPS/Bappenas 2013: численность населения на середину года, тыс.", "en": "BPS/Bappenas 2013 projection: mid-year population, thousands" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-10-07", "variant": "single published scenario", "values": { "2010": 238518.8, "2011": 241990.7, "2012": 245425.2, "2013": 248818.1, "2014": 252164.8, "2015": 255461.7, "2016": 258705, "2017": 261890.9, "2018": 265015.3, "2019": 268074.6, "2020": 271066.4, "2021": 273984.4, "2022": 276822.3, "2023": 279577.4, "2024": 282246.6, "2025": 284829, "2026": 287324.5, "2027": 289732.1, "2028": 292049.5, "2029": 294274, "2030": 296405.1, "2031": 298444, "2032": 300390.6, "2033": 302242.2, "2034": 303996.7, "2035": 305652.4 }, "src": "https://indonesia.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/PROYEKSI_2010-2035_Bilingual.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Bappenas 2018", "en": "Bappenas 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Bappenas/BPS 2018 (сценарий A): численность населения на середину года, тыс.", "en": "Bappenas/BPS 2018 projection (scenario A): mid-year population, thousands" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2018-08-24", "variant": "Skenario A", "values": { "2015": 255587.9, "2016": 258496.5, "2017": 261355.5, "2018": 264161.6, "2019": 266911.9, "2020": 269603.4, "2021": 272248.5, "2022": 274859.1, "2023": 277432.4, "2024": 279965.2, "2025": 282454.5, "2026": 284895.9, "2027": 287285.3, "2028": 289620.2, "2029": 291897.9, "2030": 294116.1, "2031": 296271.3, "2032": 298360.4, "2033": 300381.3, "2034": 302332.2, "2035": 304211.9, "2036": 306019.3, "2037": 307752.9, "2038": 309411.9, "2039": 310996.2, "2040": 312505.6, "2041": 313940.7, "2042": 315302.5, "2043": 316592.2, "2044": 317811.3, "2045": 318961 }, "src": "https://indonesia.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Publikasi%20Proyeksi%20Penduduk%202015-2045.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "BPS 2023", "en": "BPS 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз BPS 2023 (трендовый сценарий): численность населения на середину года, тыс.", "en": "BPS 2023 projection (trend scenario): mid-year population, thousands" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2023-06-02", "variant": "Skenario Tren", "values": { "2020": 269576.54, "2021": 272679.15, "2022": 275719.91, "2023": 278696.19, "2024": 281603.8, "2025": 284438.78, "2026": 287198.38, "2027": 289880.1, "2028": 292480.93, "2029": 294998.42, "2030": 297430.68, "2031": 299780.04, "2032": 302049.08, "2033": 304236.83, "2034": 306342.68, "2035": 308366.36, "2036": 310306.7, "2037": 312162.62, "2038": 313934.3, "2039": 315621.98, "2040": 317225.99, "2041": 318748.79, "2042": 320192.74, "2043": 321558.1, "2044": 322845.15, "2045": 324054.1, "2046": 325184.69, "2047": 326236.8, "2048": 327211.05, "2049": 328108.13, "2050": 328928.74 }, "src": "https://indonesia.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/2025-02/Proyeksi%20Penduduk%20Indonesia%202020-2050%20Hasil%20Sensus%20Penduduk%202020.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=IDN&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Access: bps.go.id, bappenas.go.id and perpustakaan.bappenas.go.id return Cloudflare bot-verification pages (HTTP 403, not bypassed). The three projection books were taken from copies hosted by UNFPA Indonesia (official co-publisher; identical BPS catalogue numbers/ISBNs), and the SUPAS 2025 results from an Internet Archive capture of the official BPS download link.", "Basis: projections are for June/mid-year; the actual population values are census/survey counts at their own reference dates and were not adjusted, so differences of a few tenths of a percent can be timing, not error.", "TFR timing: actual TFRs are keyed by census/survey name year; projection TFRs are 5-year-period values (2013 vintage) or calendar-year values (2018, 2023 vintages).", "Births: Indonesia has no complete birth registration; no official actual births series exists, so only projected births (2018 and 2023 vintages) are given. The 2010-2035 book tabulates births only by province.", "Net migration: the 2010-2035 projection ignored international migration (recorded as 0). The 2015-2045 and 2020-2050 projections use net international migration RATES (about -0.5 and -0.1 per 1,000) that are not converted here; BPS publishes no annual count of net international migration.", "An earlier projection based on SUPAS 2005 (period 2000-2025) is mentioned in the 2010-2035 book but was not found online and is not included.", "UN WPP estimates are not used anywhere in this file." ] }, { "id": "mys_population", "iso3": "MYS", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Малайзия: прогноз 2016 года ждал население 36,45 млн на 2026 год — вышло 34,39 млн", "en": "Malaysia: the DOSM 2016 projection expected a population of 36.45M for 2026; the outcome was 34.39M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Малайзия: население — прогнозы DOSM и факт", "en": "Malaysia: population — DOSM projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Малайзия · население", "en": "Malaysia · population" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза статистического ведомства Малайзии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 2, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2016 года: ждал на 2026 год 36,45 млн, вышло 34,39 млн (−5,7%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of DOSM (the Malaysian statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 2, above in 0. The largest miss: DOSM 2016 expected 36.45M for 2026; the outcome was 34.39M (−5.7%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка DOSM на середину года", "en": "DOSM mid-year estimates" }, "values": { "2000": 23494.9, "2001": 24030.5, "2002": 24542.5, "2003": 25038.1, "2004": 25541.5, "2005": 26045.5, "2006": 26549.9, "2007": 27058.4, "2008": 27567.6, "2009": 28081.5, "2010": 28588.6, "2011": 29062.0, "2012": 29510.0, "2013": 30213.7, "2014": 30708.5, "2015": 31186.1, "2016": 31633.5, "2017": 32022.6, "2018": 32382.3, "2019": 32523.0, "2020": 32447.4, "2021": 32576.3, "2022": 32698.1, "2023": 33401.8, "2024": 34052.1, "2025": 34220.5, "2026": 34389.4 }, "src": "https://api.data.gov.my/data-catalogue?id=population_malaysia&limit=100000", "definition": "Total population (citizens and non-citizen residents) at mid-year, thousands; census years (2000, 2010, 2020) are adjusted census counts, other years intercensal/post-censal mid-year estimates (cohort-component)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "DOSM 2013", "en": "DOSM 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз DOSM 2013 (средний вариант): численность населения", "en": "DOSM 2013 projection (medium fertility): population" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-01-18", "variant": "medium fertility assumption (andaian sederhana)", "values": { "2010": 28600.0, "2015": 30500.0, "2020": 32400.0, "2025": 34300.0, "2030": 36000.0, "2035": 37400.0, "2040": 38600.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20131113165304id_/http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/download_Population/files/population_projections/Population_Projection_2010-2040.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "DOSM 2016", "en": "DOSM 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз DOSM 2016, пересмотренный (средний вариант): численность населения", "en": "DOSM 2016 revised projection (medium fertility): population" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2016-11-04", "variant": "medium fertility assumption (andaian sederhana)", "values": { "2010": 28588.6, "2011": 29205.9, "2012": 29798.9, "2013": 30367.8, "2014": 30914.5, "2015": 31433.1, "2016": 31912.2, "2017": 32392.4, "2018": 32863.1, "2019": 33325.5, "2020": 33782.4, "2021": 34237.9, "2022": 34691.8, "2023": 35143.1, "2024": 35585.8, "2025": 36022.7, "2026": 36453.2, "2027": 36868.8, "2028": 37275.5, "2029": 37673.5, "2030": 38062.2, "2031": 38442.2, "2032": 38814.4, "2033": 39179, "2034": 39533.2, "2035": 39879.3, "2036": 40218.3, "2037": 40549.8, "2038": 40874.3, "2039": 41191.7, "2040": 41503.1 }, "src": "https://storage.dosm.gov.my/demography/population_projection_2010-2040_sex_ethnicity.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=MYS&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Three DOSM vintages are covered: January 2013 (2010-2040, base 2010 census), November 2016 (revised 2010-2040) and July 2025 (2020-2060, base mid-2024). The earlier 2000-census-based edition (DOSM's fourth projection publication) was not found online.", "No DOSM vintage publishes projected annual births or net international migration as numbers in an accessible table (the 2025 edition shows net international migration of non-citizens only in a chart). Fertility assumptions are published only as end points (2013: 1.8 in 2040; 2016: 1.7 in 2040) or decennial points (2025 edition); intermediate years are not interpolated.", "Migration is modelled only for non-citizens in all three vintages; moves of Malaysian citizens are ignored (\"not taken into account for data limitations\"). Assumptions are stated as stock targets (e.g. foreign workers 1.5 million in 2015-2040 in the 2013 edition; 2.36 million in 2020 in the 2016 edition), so actual non-citizen stocks (mys_dosm_population_noncitizens) are the comparable series, not flows.", "The 2013 and 2016 projections start from the 2010 census, and the 2016 revision raised the path (2040: 41.5 vs 38.6 million). The actual series appears not to be bridged across the 2020 census (it falls from 32.52 million in 2019 to 32.45 million in 2020, non-citizens from 3.14 to 2.69 million), which matters when comparing 2011-2019 projected and estimated populations.", "Actual TFR and births are registration-based (JPN). DOSM's open-data TFR for 2020 (1.71) differs from the 1.8 printed for 2020 in the 2025 projection publication.", "UN WPP is not a substitute for national projections and was not used." ] }, { "id": "mys_noncitizens", "iso3": "MYS", "section": "migration", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Малайзия: прогноз 2013 года ждал неграждан 2,54 млн на 2025 год — вышло 3,38 млн", "en": "Malaysia: the DOSM 2013 projection expected a non-citizen population of 2.54M for 2025; the outcome was 3.38M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Малайзия: неграждане (мигранты) — прогнозы DOSM и факт", "en": "Malaysia: non-citizens (migrants) — DOSM projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Малайзия · неграждане", "en": "Malaysia · non-citizens" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза статистического ведомства Малайзии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 1 из 2, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2013 года: ждал на 2025 год 2,54 млн, вышло 3,38 млн (+33,3%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of DOSM (the Malaysian statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 1 of 2, above in 1. The largest miss: DOSM 2013 expected 2.54M for 2025; the outcome was 3.38M (+33.3%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Неграждане, оценка DOSM на середину года", "en": "Non-citizens, DOSM mid-year estimates" }, "values": { "2000": 1413.1, "2001": 1508.1, "2002": 1600.4, "2003": 1690.1, "2004": 1782.2, "2005": 1874.0, "2006": 1965.0, "2007": 2055.3, "2008": 2144.7, "2009": 2233.2, "2010": 2324.5, "2011": 2445.1, "2012": 2548.3, "2013": 2888.0, "2014": 3012.3, "2015": 3126.1, "2016": 3230.0, "2017": 3287.5, "2018": 3322.7, "2019": 3140.4, "2020": 2691.1, "2021": 2559.5, "2022": 2500.0, "2023": 2964.8, "2024": 3396.9, "2025": 3379.8, "2026": 3373.6 }, "src": "https://api.data.gov.my/data-catalogue?id=population_malaysia&limit=100000", "definition": "Non-citizen residents (ethnicity \"other_noncitizen\") at mid-year, thousands; same basis as mys_dosm_population." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "DOSM 2013", "en": "DOSM 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз DOSM 2013 (средний вариант): неграждане", "en": "DOSM 2013 projection (medium fertility): non-citizen population" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-01-18", "variant": "medium fertility assumption (andaian sederhana)", "values": { "2010": 2324.5, "2015": 2411.4, "2020": 2488.8, "2025": 2535.8, "2030": 2581.7, "2035": 2637.1, "2040": 2691.6 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20131113165304id_/http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/download_Population/files/population_projections/Population_Projection_2010-2040.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "DOSM 2016", "en": "DOSM 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз DOSM 2016, пересмотренный (средний вариант): неграждане", "en": "DOSM 2016 revised projection (medium fertility): non-citizen population" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2016-11-04", "variant": "medium fertility assumption (andaian sederhana)", "values": { "2010": 2324.5, "2011": 2517.5, "2012": 2684.8, "2013": 2826.4, "2014": 2944.9, "2015": 3037.7, "2016": 3092.8, "2017": 3151.4, "2018": 3203.6, "2019": 3251.3, "2020": 3297.6, "2021": 3346.2, "2022": 3397.1, "2023": 3450.2, "2024": 3499.5, "2025": 3549, "2026": 3598.7, "2027": 3641.1, "2028": 3683, "2029": 3725.1, "2030": 3767.3, "2031": 3809.4, "2032": 3851.7, "2033": 3893.9, "2034": 3933.1, "2035": 3971.3, "2036": 4009.5, "2037": 4046.5, "2038": 4082.5, "2039": 4117.4, "2040": 4152.4 }, "src": "https://storage.dosm.gov.my/demography/population_projection_2010-2040_sex_ethnicity.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=MYS&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Three DOSM vintages are covered: January 2013 (2010-2040, base 2010 census), November 2016 (revised 2010-2040) and July 2025 (2020-2060, base mid-2024). The earlier 2000-census-based edition (DOSM's fourth projection publication) was not found online.", "No DOSM vintage publishes projected annual births or net international migration as numbers in an accessible table (the 2025 edition shows net international migration of non-citizens only in a chart). Fertility assumptions are published only as end points (2013: 1.8 in 2040; 2016: 1.7 in 2040) or decennial points (2025 edition); intermediate years are not interpolated.", "Migration is modelled only for non-citizens in all three vintages; moves of Malaysian citizens are ignored (\"not taken into account for data limitations\"). Assumptions are stated as stock targets (e.g. foreign workers 1.5 million in 2015-2040 in the 2013 edition; 2.36 million in 2020 in the 2016 edition), so actual non-citizen stocks (mys_dosm_population_noncitizens) are the comparable series, not flows.", "The 2013 and 2016 projections start from the 2010 census, and the 2016 revision raised the path (2040: 41.5 vs 38.6 million). The actual series appears not to be bridged across the 2020 census (it falls from 32.52 million in 2019 to 32.45 million in 2020, non-citizens from 3.14 to 2.69 million), which matters when comparing 2011-2019 projected and estimated populations.", "Actual TFR and births are registration-based (JPN). DOSM's open-data TFR for 2020 (1.71) differs from the 1.8 printed for 2020 in the 2025 projection publication.", "UN WPP is not a substitute for national projections and was not used." ] }, { "id": "tha_population", "iso3": "THA", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Таиланд: прогноз 2019 года ждал население 67,01 млн на 2024 год — вышло 65,95 млн", "en": "Thailand: the NESDC 2019 projection expected a population of 67.01M for 2024; the outcome was 65.95M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Таиланд: население — прогнозы NESDC и домовой регистр", "en": "Thailand: population — NESDC projections vs the house register" }, "short": { "ru": "Таиланд · население", "en": "Thailand · population" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза Национального совета по экономическому и социальному развитию Таиланда сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 2, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2019 года: ждал на 2024 год 67,01 млн, вышло 65,95 млн (−1,6%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of NESDC (Thailand) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 2, above in 0. The largest miss: NESDC 2019 expected 67.01M for 2024; the outcome was 65.95M (−1.6%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население по домовому регистру DOPA на 31 декабря", "en": "Population in the DOPA house register, 31 December" }, "values": { "1993": 58336.072, "1994": 59095.419, "1995": 59460.382, "1996": 60116.182, "1997": 60816.227, "1998": 61466.178, "1999": 61661.701, "2000": 61878.746, "2001": 62308.887, "2002": 62799.872, "2003": 63079.765, "2004": 61973.621, "2005": 62418.054, "2006": 62828.706, "2007": 63038.247, "2008": 63389.73, "2009": 63525.062, "2010": 63878.267, "2011": 64076.033, "2012": 64456.695, "2013": 64785.909, "2014": 65124.716, "2015": 65729.098, "2016": 65931.55, "2017": 66188.503, "2018": 66413.979, "2019": 66558.935, "2020": 66186.727, "2021": 66171.439, "2022": 66090.475, "2023": 66052.615, "2024": 65951.21 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250715002418id_/https://www.nesdc.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=3507&filename=PageSocial", "definition": "Persons recorded in the house-registration system (Thai nationals and non-Thais with house registration) as of 31 December, DOPA, Ministry of Interior. Thousands." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "NESDC 2013", "en": "NESDC 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз NESDB 2013 (основной вариант): население с регистрацией (тайцы и иностранцы в домовом регистре)", "en": "NESDB 2013 projection (main scenario): population in household registration (Thais and registered non-Thais)" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-02", "variant": "assumption 3, normal fertility decline (ข้อสมมุติแบบที่ 3 TFR ลดลงตามปกติ)", "values": { "2010": 63790.0, "2011": 64082.0, "2012": 64360.0, "2013": 64623.0, "2014": 64871.0, "2015": 65104.0, "2016": 65323.0, "2017": 65522.0, "2018": 65700.0, "2019": 65858.0, "2020": 65996.0, "2021": 66114.0, "2022": 66210.0, "2023": 66286.0, "2024": 66339.0, "2025": 66371.0, "2026": 66379.0, "2027": 66364.0, "2028": 66325.0, "2029": 66262.0, "2030": 66174.0, "2031": 66062.0, "2032": 65923.0, "2033": 65759.0, "2034": 65568.0, "2035": 65350.0, "2036": 65106.0, "2037": 64835.0, "2038": 64538.0, "2039": 64214.0, "2040": 63864.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20170517104246id_/http://social.nesdb.go.th:80/social/Portals/0/Documents/%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%84%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%94%E0%B8%9B%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%93%20e-book.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "NESDC 2019", "en": "NESDC 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз NESDC 2019, пересмотренный (средний вариант): население с регистрацией", "en": "NESDC 2019 revised projection (medium fertility): population in household registration" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2019", "variant": "medium fertility assumption (ข้อสมมติฐานภาวะเจริญพันธุ์ระดับปานกลาง)", "values": { "2010": 63789.556, "2011": 64152.609, "2012": 64514.523, "2013": 64876.455, "2014": 65238.393, "2015": 65598.798, "2016": 65811.488, "2017": 66012.044, "2018": 66199.908, "2019": 66374.391, "2020": 66534.684, "2021": 66679.869, "2022": 66808.947, "2023": 66920.864, "2024": 67014.526, "2025": 67088.996, "2026": 67143.295, "2027": 67176.478, "2028": 67187.64, "2029": 67175.923, "2030": 67140.539, "2031": 67080.785, "2032": 66996.035, "2033": 66885.74, "2034": 66749.444, "2035": 66586.786, "2036": 66397.497, "2037": 66181.405, "2038": 65938.454, "2039": 65668.704, "2040": 65372.337 }, "src": "https://socdata.nesdc.go.th/api/v1/nesdc/public/download_file?id=1100&is_pivot=false&file_type=xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=THA&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Three NESDB/NESDC vintages are covered: Oct 2007 (base 2000), Feb 2013 (base 2010) and the 2019 revision (base 2010, Cabinet noted 14 Jan 2020). An earlier 2003 edition (2000-2025) and the full text of the 2019 revision sit in the NESDC e-library behind a login and were not used. No newer national projection based on the 2020 register-based census was found as of 2026-10-04.", "No edition publishes projected annual births in an accessible file, so births can be compared only via TFR and population. TFR assumptions are published only for five-year points or periods; they are recorded as published and not interpolated.", "Migration: the 2007 edition explicitly assumes no international migration at national level (recorded as 0). The 2013 edition calls net international migration \"very small\" (not recorded as a number). The 2019 revision's migration assumption is not in any accessible file. No official annual net international migration series for Thailand was found, so there is no actual net_migration series.", "Basis differences: the 2007 projection covers the whole de facto population (2000 census base). The 2013 and 2019 projections cover Thais and non-Thais in household registration at 1 July; the 2013 report holds 2.13 million unregistered non-Thais constant outside the projection. Actual population (tha_dopa_population) is the DOPA register at 31 December, which counts registered people living abroad and misses unregistered migrants.", "Actual births: two official series disagree. DOPA's registration totals are higher than the Ministry of Public Health counts by 0.6-9.3% in 2009-2023 (e.g. 2015: 742.9 vs 679.5 thousand), although both come from the same civil-registration database.", "Actual TFR: only survey-based official TFRs (NSO Survey of Population Change and MICS) were found as tables. MoPH publishes age-specific fertility rates (2019-2023) but no TFR. Press reports (e.g. Asia News Network, 8 Mar 2024) quote NESDC giving a TFR of 1.08 for 2023, but no official table with an annual registration-based TFR series was located, so none is recorded.", "Access: stat.bora.dopa.go.th did not resolve from this environment. spd.moph.go.th returned a Cloudflare challenge (not bypassed). The old nesdc.go.th site was replaced by a new WordPress site in 2025. Files from these hosts are Internet Archive copies of the original official files (archive_of field). NESDC's socdata datasets on births (1095), MoPH births (1080, 1101) and ASFR (1092) require a login (permission level 1) and were not used.", "UN WPP is not a substitute for the national projections and was not used." ] }, { "id": "vnm_population", "iso3": "VNM", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Вьетнам: прогноз 2016 года ждал население 99,93 млн на 2025 год — вышло 102,1 млн", "en": "Viet Nam: the GSO 2016 projection expected a population of 99.93M for 2025; the outcome was 102.1M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Вьетнам: население — прогнозы GSO и факт", "en": "Viet Nam: population — GSO projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Вьетнам · население", "en": "Viet Nam · population" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза статистического ведомства Вьетнама сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 0 из 3, выше — в 3. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2016 года: ждал на 2025 год 99,93 млн, вышло 102,1 млн (+2,2%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of GSO (the Vietnamese statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 0 of 3, above in 3. The largest miss: GSO 2016 expected 99.93M for 2025; the outcome was 102.1M (+2.2%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население на 1 апреля (переписи и обследования GSO/NSO)", "en": "Population on 1 April (GSO/NSO censuses and surveys)" }, "values": { "2009": 85847, "2014": 90493.4, "2015": 91466, "2016": 92447, "2017": 93425, "2018": 94417, "2019": 96209, "2020": 97204, "2021": 98281, "2022": 99217, "2023": 100098, "2024": 101113, "2025": 102121 }, "src": "https://www.nso.gov.vn/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Sach-ket-qua-chu-yeu-dieu-tra-bien-dong-dan-so-2025.-pdf.pdf", "definition": "Total population at 0h on 1 April of the year (census 2009/2019, intercensal survey 2014/2024, annual PCS in other years), thousands; same reference date as the 2009-, 2014- and 2019-based GSO projections." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "GSO 2011", "en": "GSO 2011" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз GSO 2011 (средний вариант): численность населения на 1 апреля, тыс.", "en": "GSO 2011 projection (medium variant): population on 1 April, thousands" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2011-02", "variant": "medium fertility variant (Phương án mức sinh trung bình)", "values": { "2009": 85847, "2010": 86722, "2011": 87642, "2012": 88604, "2013": 89609, "2014": 90654, "2015": 91583, "2016": 92513, "2017": 93449, "2018": 94394, "2019": 95354, "2020": 96179, "2021": 97000, "2022": 97819, "2023": 98640, "2024": 99466, "2025": 100129, "2026": 100782, "2027": 101424, "2028": 102055, "2029": 102678, "2030": 103117, "2031": 103586, "2032": 104078, "2033": 104583, "2034": 105092, "2035": 105388, "2036": 105724, "2037": 106091, "2038": 106482, "2039": 106887, "2040": 107004, "2041": 107187, "2042": 107433, "2043": 107739, "2044": 108102, "2045": 108165, "2046": 108261, "2047": 108387, "2048": 108538, "2049": 108707 }, "src": "https://www.nso.gov.vn/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Du-bao-dan-so.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "GSO 2016", "en": "GSO 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз GSO 2016 (средний вариант): численность населения на 1 апреля, тыс.", "en": "GSO 2016 projection (medium variant): population on 1 April, thousands" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2016", "variant": "medium fertility variant (Phương án trung bình)", "values": { "2014": 90493, "2015": 91465, "2016": 92442, "2017": 93422, "2018": 94404, "2019": 95387, "2020": 96302, "2021": 97188, "2022": 97981, "2023": 98683, "2024": 99306, "2025": 99929, "2026": 100545, "2027": 101139, "2028": 101735, "2029": 102321, "2030": 102886, "2031": 103426, "2032": 103928, "2033": 104379, "2034": 104770, "2035": 105168, "2036": 105536, "2037": 105879, "2038": 106203, "2039": 106513, "2040": 106765, "2041": 106993, "2042": 107202, "2043": 107400, "2044": 107598, "2045": 107791, "2046": 107960, "2047": 108129, "2048": 108296, "2049": 108464 }, "src": "https://www.nso.gov.vn/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Du-Bao-Dan-So-Viet-Nam.compressed.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "GSO 2020", "en": "GSO 2020" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз GSO 2020 (средний вариант): численность населения на 1 апреля, тыс.", "en": "GSO 2020 projection (medium variant): population on 1 April, thousands" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2020-12-18", "variant": "medium fertility variant (Phương án mức sinh trung bình)", "values": { "2019": 96209, "2020": 97259, "2021": 98184, "2022": 99077, "2023": 99939, "2024": 100770, "2025": 101571, "2026": 102340, "2027": 103085, "2028": 103812, "2029": 104524, "2030": 105219, "2031": 105891, "2032": 106547, "2033": 107201, "2034": 107846, "2035": 108478, "2036": 109094, "2037": 109696, "2038": 110280, "2039": 110840, "2040": 111375, "2041": 111886, "2042": 112377, "2043": 112839, "2044": 113268, "2045": 113667, "2046": 114038, "2047": 114383, "2048": 114699, "2049": 114987, "2050": 115249, "2051": 115485, "2052": 115697, "2053": 115884, "2054": 116051, "2055": 116200, "2056": 116331, "2057": 116446, "2058": 116546, "2059": 116633, "2060": 116707, "2061": 116769, "2062": 116822, "2063": 116864, "2064": 116894, "2065": 116911, "2066": 116916, "2067": 116915, "2068": 116907, "2069": 116894 }, "src": "https://vietnam.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/final_population_projection_eng_upload_9_august_2021_0.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=VNM&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Basis: the 2009-, 2014- and 2019-based GSO projections give population on 1 April (census reference date); compare them with vnm_gso_population_apr1. The 2024-based NSO projection is shifted to 1 July (mid-year); compare it with vnm_gso_population_avg.", "TFR timing: survey TFRs refer to the 12 months before 1 April of the year shown, while projection TFRs are 5-year-period averages (2011, 2016 vintages) or point years (2025 vintage). A survey value for year t roughly matches projection period/year t-1..t.", "Births: Viet Nam publishes no national birth counts (survey crude birth rates only; e.g. CBR 2025 = 13.7 per 1,000 in the NSO press release https://www.nso.gov.vn/tin-tuc-thong-ke/2026/01/thong-cao-bao-chi-ve-tinh-hinh-dan-so-lao-dong-viec-lam-quy-iv-va-nam-2025/), and none of the four projection reports tabulates projected births, so no births series is given.", "Net migration: all four official projections assume zero net international migration; NSO publishes no national net international migration series (PCS migration questions cover internal moves), so no actual series is given. Contract labour abroad is not removed from the population because de jure residents temporarily abroad are counted.", "Official Bieu 1.1 of the 2024-2074 report itself checks earlier vintages: 2014 actual 90,493.4 vs 2009-based medium 90,654 (-0.2%); 2019 actual 96,209.0 vs 2014-based medium 95,387.0 (+0.9%); 2024 actual 101,112.7 vs 2019-based medium 100,770 (+0.3%) (percent = actual vs projection as printed).", "2019-2069 vintage: national TFR assumptions only as chart; only the 2069 end-point (2.01, medium) is recorded. The UNFPA-hosted English edition was used because no Vietnamese PDF is posted on nso.gov.vn; gso.gov.vn archive copies of the Vietnamese book were not found.", "Earlier GSO projections (after the 1989 and 1999 censuses) were not found online and are not included.", "UN WPP estimates are not used anywhere in this file." ] }, { "id": "tur_tfr", "iso3": "TUR", "section": "demography", "metric": "tfr", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "ребёнка на женщину", "en": "children per woman", "dec": 2 }, "headline": { "ru": "Турция: прогноз 2018 года ждал 2,09 ребёнка на женщину на 2025 год — вышло 1,42", "en": "Türkiye: the TÜİK 2018 projection expected fertility of 2.09 for 2025; the outcome was 1.42" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Турция: рождаемость — прогнозы TÜİK и факт", "en": "Türkiye: fertility — TÜİK projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Турция · рождаемость", "en": "Türkiye · fertility" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза статистического ведомства Турции сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 3 из 3, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2018 года: ждал на 2025 год 2,09 ребёнка на женщину, вышло 1,42 (−32,0%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 3 of 3, above in 0. The largest miss: TÜİK 2018 expected 2.09 for 2025; the outcome was 1.42 (−32.0%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (TÜİK, по зарегистрированным рождениям)", "en": "Actual (TÜİK, from registered births)" }, "values": { "2001": 2.38, "2002": 2.17, "2003": 2.09, "2004": 2.11, "2005": 2.12, "2006": 2.12, "2007": 2.16, "2008": 2.15, "2009": 2.0999, "2010": 2.0802, "2011": 2.0472, "2012": 2.1086, "2013": 2.1068, "2014": 2.1862, "2015": 2.1571, "2016": 2.1148, "2017": 2.0818, "2018": 2.0047, "2019": 1.889, "2020": 1.772, "2021": 1.7121, "2022": 1.6344, "2023": 1.5167, "2024": 1.4882, "2025": 1.4185 }, "src": "https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/en/press/58018", "definition": "Children per woman aged 15-49, calendar year, from registered live births (General Directorate of Civil Registration and Citizenship Affairs, Ministry of Health) and ADNKS (address-based register) female population. 2020-2024 revised with updated administrative records (marked (r)). Values stored to 4 decimals from the unrounded published cells (headline figures are 2 decimals: 2023 1.51/1.52, 2024 1.48/1.49, 2025 1.42)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "TÜİK 2013", "en": "TÜİK 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз TÜİK 2013 (основной сценарий): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "TÜİK 2013 projection (basic scenario): total fertility rate" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013-02-14", "variant": "Senaryo 1 (Temel senaryo) / Scenario 1 (basic)", "values": { "2013": 1.99, "2014": 1.97, "2015": 1.96, "2016": 1.95, "2017": 1.93, "2018": 1.92, "2019": 1.9, "2020": 1.89, "2021": 1.88, "2022": 1.86, "2023": 1.85 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20130510142726id_/http://www.tuik.gov.tr/ZipGetir.do?id=15844" }, { "label": { "ru": "TÜİK 2018", "en": "TÜİK 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз TÜİK 2018 (основной сценарий): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "TÜİK 2018 projection (main scenario): total fertility rate" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2018-02-21", "variant": "Ana senaryo / Main scenario", "values": { "2018": 2.1, "2019": 2.1, "2020": 2.1, "2021": 2.1, "2022": 2.1, "2023": 2.1, "2024": 2.0929, "2025": 2.0857, "2030": 2.05, "2040": 1.95, "2050": 1.85, "2080": 1.8 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20180315190549id_/http://www.tuik.gov.tr:80/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1636" }, { "label": { "ru": "TÜİK 2024", "en": "TÜİK 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз TÜİK 2024 (основной сценарий): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "TÜİK 2024 projection (main scenario): total fertility rate" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2024-07-30", "variant": "Ana senaryo / Main scenario", "values": { "2024": 1.4511, "2025": 1.4425, "2026": 1.434, "2027": 1.4255, "2028": 1.417, "2029": 1.4085, "2030": 1.4, "2040": 1.5, "2050": 1.6, "2080": 1.55, "2100": 1.5 }, "src": "https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/en/press/53699" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=TUR&i=tfr,births&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "All TÜİK projections and the ADNKS actuals cover the de jure registered population (citizens and foreigners with residence/work permits); Syrians under temporary protection (not part of the de jure ADNKS population, as the 2018 metadata states) are outside both, so the migration comparison refers to register-based migration only.", "Net migration actuals start in 2016 (first register-based international migration statistics); the 2013 projection published no migration assumption, only an implied residual (derived by the compiler, flagged derived=true).", "For the 2018 and 2024 vintages TÜİK published annual TFR/births only for the first years (to 2025 and 2030 respectively); later years are the stated anchor points of the scenario text, and intermediate years are deliberately not filled in.", "TÜİK revised births/TFR for 2020-2024 in May 2026 with updated administrative records (e.g. 2023 TFR 1.51 -> 1.5167); actuals use the latest revision.", "The pre-2013 projection (2008 ADNKS and 2008 Turkey DHS based) survives only as a mid-year population table to 2025 (no fertility or migration assumptions), included as tur_tuik2011_main_population_midyear and compared with the mid-year actuals.", "Internet Archive copies are used for the 2013 and 2018 files because tuik.gov.tr old URLs (ZipGetir.do, PreIstatistikTablo.do, VeriBilgi.do) now return 404; the current veri portalı serves only the latest table versions." ] }, { "id": "tur_births", "iso3": "TUR", "section": "demography", "metric": "births", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. рождений в год", "en": "thousand births a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Турция: прогноз 2018 года ждал рождений 1,32 млн на 2025 год — вышло 895 тыс.", "en": "Türkiye: the TÜİK 2018 projection expected births of 1.32M for 2025; the outcome was 895k" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Турция: рождения — прогнозы TÜİK и факт", "en": "Türkiye: births — TÜİK projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Турция · рождения", "en": "Türkiye · births" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза статистического ведомства Турции сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 3 из 3, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2018 года: ждал на 2025 год 1,32 млн, вышло 895 тыс. (−32,4%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 3 of 3, above in 0. The largest miss: TÜİK 2018 expected 1.32M for 2025; the outcome was 895k (−32.4%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (TÜİK, зарегистрированные рождения)", "en": "Actual (TÜİK, registered births)" }, "values": { "2001": 1323.341, "2002": 1229.555, "2003": 1198.927, "2004": 1222.484, "2005": 1244.041, "2006": 1255.432, "2007": 1289.992, "2008": 1295.511, "2009": 1266.751, "2010": 1261.169, "2011": 1252.812, "2012": 1294.605, "2013": 1297.505, "2014": 1351.088, "2015": 1336.908, "2016": 1316.204, "2017": 1300.258, "2018": 1257.071, "2019": 1191.709, "2020": 1120.43, "2021": 1086.136, "2022": 1041.846, "2023": 963.075, "2024": 940.273, "2025": 895.374 }, "src": "https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/en/press/58018", "definition": "Registered live births by year of occurrence, Türkiye, thousands. 2020-2024 revised (r)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "TÜİK 2013", "en": "TÜİK 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз TÜİK 2013 (основной сценарий): число рождений, тыс.", "en": "TÜİK 2013 projection (basic scenario): births, thousands" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013-02-14", "variant": "Senaryo 1 (Temel senaryo)", "values": { "2013": 1227.43, "2014": 1223.6, "2015": 1219.42, "2016": 1215.55, "2017": 1211.62, "2018": 1206.44, "2019": 1201.31, "2020": 1196.33, "2021": 1191.55, "2022": 1186.23, "2023": 1179.88 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20130510142726id_/http://www.tuik.gov.tr/ZipGetir.do?id=15844" }, { "label": { "ru": "TÜİK 2018", "en": "TÜİK 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз TÜİK 2018 (основной сценарий): число рождений, тыс.", "en": "TÜİK 2018 projection (main scenario): births, thousands" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2018-02-21", "variant": "Ana senaryo / Main scenario", "values": { "2018": 1315.0, "2019": 1318.0, "2020": 1322.0, "2021": 1324.0, "2022": 1327.0, "2023": 1329.0, "2024": 1327.0, "2025": 1324.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20180315190549id_/http://www.tuik.gov.tr:80/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1636" }, { "label": { "ru": "TÜİK 2024", "en": "TÜİK 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз TÜİK 2024 (основной сценарий): число рождений, тыс.", "en": "TÜİK 2024 projection (main scenario): births, thousands" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2024-07-30", "variant": "Ana senaryo / Main scenario", "values": { "2024": 917.0, "2025": 911.0, "2026": 905.0, "2027": 899.0, "2028": 894.0, "2029": 889.0, "2030": 883.0 }, "src": "https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/en/press/53699" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=TUR&i=births,tfr&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "All TÜİK projections and the ADNKS actuals cover the de jure registered population (citizens and foreigners with residence/work permits); Syrians under temporary protection (not part of the de jure ADNKS population, as the 2018 metadata states) are outside both, so the migration comparison refers to register-based migration only.", "Net migration actuals start in 2016 (first register-based international migration statistics); the 2013 projection published no migration assumption, only an implied residual (derived by the compiler, flagged derived=true).", "For the 2018 and 2024 vintages TÜİK published annual TFR/births only for the first years (to 2025 and 2030 respectively); later years are the stated anchor points of the scenario text, and intermediate years are deliberately not filled in.", "TÜİK revised births/TFR for 2020-2024 in May 2026 with updated administrative records (e.g. 2023 TFR 1.51 -> 1.5167); actuals use the latest revision.", "The pre-2013 projection (2008 ADNKS and 2008 Turkey DHS based) survives only as a mid-year population table to 2025 (no fertility or migration assumptions), included as tur_tuik2011_main_population_midyear and compared with the mid-year actuals.", "Internet Archive copies are used for the 2013 and 2018 files because tuik.gov.tr old URLs (ZipGetir.do, PreIstatistikTablo.do, VeriBilgi.do) now return 404; the current veri portalı serves only the latest table versions." ] }, { "id": "tur_population", "iso3": "TUR", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Турция: прогноз 2018 года ждал население 88,84 млн на 2025 год — вышло 86,09 млн", "en": "Türkiye: the TÜİK 2018 projection expected a population of 88.84M for 2025; the outcome was 86.09M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Турция: население — прогнозы TÜİK и регистр", "en": "Türkiye: population — TÜİK projections vs the register" }, "short": { "ru": "Турция · население", "en": "Türkiye · population" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза статистического ведомства Турции сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 3, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2018 года: ждал на 2025 год 88,84 млн, вышло 86,09 млн (−3,1%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 3, above in 1. The largest miss: TÜİK 2018 expected 88.84M for 2025; the outcome was 86.09M (−3.1%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население по адресному регистру ADNKS на 31 декабря (без сирийцев под временной защитой)", "en": "Population in the ADNKS address register, 31 December (Syrians under temporary protection not included)" }, "values": { "2007": 70586.0, "2008": 71517.0, "2009": 72561.0, "2010": 73723.0, "2011": 74724.0, "2012": 75627.0, "2013": 76668.0, "2014": 77696.0, "2015": 78741.0, "2016": 79814.871, "2017": 80810.525, "2018": 82003.882, "2019": 83154.997, "2020": 83614.362, "2021": 84680.273, "2022": 85279.553, "2023": 85372.377, "2024": 85664.944, "2025": 86092.168 }, "src": "https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/en/press/58140", "definition": "Address Based Population Registration System (ADNKS) de jure population at year end (citizens and foreigners with residence permits; Syrians under temporary protection excluded). Same concept as the year-end projection figures." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "TÜİK 2013", "en": "TÜİK 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз TÜİK 2013 (основной сценарий): население на конец года, тыс.", "en": "TÜİK 2013 projection (basic scenario): year-end population, thousands" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013-02-14", "variant": "Senaryo 1 (Temel senaryo)", "values": { "2013": 76481.847, "2045": 93175.281, "2014": 77323.892, "2046": 93283.052, "2015": 78151.75, "2047": 93366.932, "2016": 78965.645, "2048": 93426.741, "2017": 79766.012, "2049": 93463.312, "2018": 80551.266, "2050": 93475.575, "2019": 81321.569, "2051": 93464.322, "2020": 82076.788, "2052": 93439.748, "2021": 82816.25, "2053": 93400.901, "2022": 83540.076, "2054": 93347.176, "2023": 84247.088, "2055": 93277.765, "2024": 84936.01, "2056": 93192.514, "2025": 85569.125, "2057": 93094.517, "2026": 86182.9, "2058": 92983.622, "2027": 86776.55, "2059": 92858.359, "2028": 87349.415, "2060": 92716.895, "2029": 87900.467, "2061": 92560.559, "2030": 88427.604, "2062": 92391.593, "2031": 88929.672, "2063": 92208.292, "2032": 89406.656, "2064": 92011.145, "2033": 89857.527, "2065": 91800.361, "2034": 90282.341, "2066": 91576.634, "2035": 90680.302, "2067": 91344.401, "2036": 91050.33, "2068": 91103.415, "2037": 91392.634, "2069": 90851.271, "2038": 91708.113, "2070": 90589.432, "2039": 91996.525, "2071": 90319.404, "2040": 92257.821, "2072": 90041.548, "2041": 92492.085, "2073": 89757.396, "2042": 92700.354, "2074": 89466.941, "2043": 92883.492, "2075": 89172.088, "2044": 93042.267 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20130510142726id_/http://www.tuik.gov.tr/ZipGetir.do?id=15844" }, { "label": { "ru": "TÜİK 2018", "en": "TÜİK 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз TÜİK 2018 (основной сценарий): население на конец года, тыс.", "en": "TÜİK 2018 projection (main scenario): year-end population, thousands" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2018-02-21", "variant": "Ana senaryo / Main scenario", "values": { "2018": 81867.223, "2050": 104749.423, "2019": 82886.421, "2051": 105064.635, "2020": 83900.373, "2052": 105362.568, "2021": 84908.658, "2053": 105642.913, "2022": 85911.035, "2054": 105905.418, "2023": 86907.367, "2055": 106149.786, "2024": 87885.571, "2056": 106375.976, "2025": 88844.934, "2057": 106583.97, "2026": 89784.584, "2058": 106773.484, "2027": 90703.6, "2059": 106944.215, "2028": 91601.117, "2060": 107095.998, "2029": 92476.323, "2061": 107228.944, "2030": 93328.574, "2062": 107343.229, "2031": 94153.776, "2063": 107439.101, "2032": 94951.512, "2064": 107516.923, "2033": 95721.347, "2065": 107577.244, "2034": 96463.09, "2066": 107621.025, "2035": 97176.768, "2067": 107649.413, "2036": 97862.549, "2068": 107663.43, "2037": 98520.72, "2069": 107664.079, "2038": 99151.467, "2070": 107652.538, "2039": 99754.923, "2071": 107630.041, "2040": 100331.233, "2072": 107597.814, "2041": 100882.655, "2073": 107556.926, "2042": 101409.507, "2074": 107508.425, "2043": 101911.98, "2075": 107453.417, "2044": 102390.159, "2076": 107392.765, "2045": 102843.989, "2077": 107326.897, "2046": 103273.571, "2078": 107256.148, "2047": 103679.038, "2079": 107180.781, "2048": 104060.257, "2080": 107100.904, "2049": 104417.089 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20190723092128id_/http://tuik.gov.tr/ZipGetir.do?id=30567" }, { "label": { "ru": "TÜİK 2024", "en": "TÜİK 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз TÜİK 2024 (основной сценарий): население на конец года, тыс.", "en": "TÜİK 2024 projection (main scenario): year-end population, thousands" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2024-07-30", "variant": "Ana senaryo / Main scenario", "values": { "2062": 92563.299, "2024": 85811.876, "2063": 92287.648, "2025": 86239.2, "2064": 91996.937, "2026": 86654.276, "2065": 91693.159, "2027": 87057.013, "2066": 91378.435, "2028": 87447.192, "2067": 91054.731, "2029": 87824.415, "2068": 90723.54, "2030": 88188.221, "2069": 90386.103, "2031": 88547.948, "2070": 90043.609, "2032": 88903.143, "2071": 89697.193, "2033": 89253.465, "2072": 89347.761, "2034": 89598.704, "2073": 88995.959, "2035": 89938.773, "2074": 88642.217, "2036": 90271.639, "2075": 88286.941, "2037": 90597.328, "2076": 87930.099, "2038": 90915.745, "2077": 87571.096, "2039": 91226.644, "2078": 87209.121, "2040": 91529.614, "2079": 86843.237, "2041": 91821.961, "2080": 86472.296, "2042": 92102.888, "2081": 86089.309, "2043": 92371.407, "2082": 85693.643, "2044": 92626.291, "2083": 85284.76, "2045": 92866.062, "2084": 84862.063, "2046": 93089.166, "2085": 84425.232, "2047": 93293.803, "2086": 83974.302, "2048": 93477.776, "2087": 83509.663, "2049": 93638.766, "2088": 83032.083, "2050": 93774.618, "2089": 82542.653, "2051": 93871.269, "2090": 82042.735, "2052": 93927.889, "2091": 81533.869, "2053": 93944.306, "2092": 81017.641, "2054": 93921.074, "2093": 80495.611, "2055": 93859.478, "2094": 79969.305, "2056": 93761.603, "2095": 79440.314, "2057": 93630.071, "2096": 78910.082, "2058": 93467.512, "2097": 78379.782, "2059": 93276.656, "2098": 77850.51, "2060": 93060.398, "2099": 77323.366, "2061": 92821.683, "2100": 76799.416 }, "src": "https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/en/press/53699" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=TUR&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "All TÜİK projections and the ADNKS actuals cover the de jure registered population (citizens and foreigners with residence/work permits); Syrians under temporary protection (not part of the de jure ADNKS population, as the 2018 metadata states) are outside both, so the migration comparison refers to register-based migration only.", "Net migration actuals start in 2016 (first register-based international migration statistics); the 2013 projection published no migration assumption, only an implied residual (derived by the compiler, flagged derived=true).", "For the 2018 and 2024 vintages TÜİK published annual TFR/births only for the first years (to 2025 and 2030 respectively); later years are the stated anchor points of the scenario text, and intermediate years are deliberately not filled in.", "TÜİK revised births/TFR for 2020-2024 in May 2026 with updated administrative records (e.g. 2023 TFR 1.51 -> 1.5167); actuals use the latest revision.", "The pre-2013 projection (2008 ADNKS and 2008 Turkey DHS based) survives only as a mid-year population table to 2025 (no fertility or migration assumptions), included as tur_tuik2011_main_population_midyear and compared with the mid-year actuals.", "Internet Archive copies are used for the 2013 and 2018 files because tuik.gov.tr old URLs (ZipGetir.do, PreIstatistikTablo.do, VeriBilgi.do) now return 404; the current veri portalı serves only the latest table versions." ] }, { "id": "jpn_migration_foreigners", "iso3": "JPN", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Япония: в 2016–2025 годах миграция иностранцев добавила 1,75 млн, а прогноз 2017 года ждал 690 тыс.", "en": "Japan: the IPSS 2017 projection expected foreign nationals' net migration of +690k for 2016–2025; the outcome was +1.75M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Япония: чистая миграция иностранцев — прогнозы IPSS и факт", "en": "Japan: net migration of foreign nationals — IPSS projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Япония · миграция", "en": "Japan · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов Национального института исследований населения Японии против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 5 из 5. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2017 года: за 2016–2025 ждали +690 тыс., вышло +1,75 млн. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "5 projections of IPSS (Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 5 of 5. The largest miss: IPSS 2017 expected +690k for 2016–2025; the outcome was +1.75M. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Чистая миграция иностранцев (Статистическое бюро Японии, годы октябрь–сентябрь)", "en": "Net migration of foreign nationals (Statistics Bureau of Japan, October–September years)" }, "values": { "2000": 88.0, "2001": 79.0, "2002": 53.0, "2003": 65.0, "2004": 42.0, "2005": 50.0, "2006": 61.0, "2007": 79.0, "2008": 65.0, "2009": -47.0, "2010": -4.0, "2011": -51.0, "2012": -56.0, "2013": 37.0, "2014": 60.0, "2015": 95.0, "2016": 136.0, "2017": 146.501, "2018": 164.893, "2019": 207.792, "2020": 21.032, "2021": -28.481, "2022": 190.665, "2023": 240.205, "2024": 342.184, "2025": 327.557 }, "src": "https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/pdf/202609.pdf", "definition": "Social change of the foreign population in the official population estimates (人口推計): regular entries minus exits of foreign nationals from the Immigration Services Agency's immigration control statistics, excluding foreigners staying in Japan 3 months or less; year t = October (t-1) to September t. Same concept and period as the IPSS assumption." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "IPSS 2002", "en": "IPSS 2002" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз IPSS 2002: чистая миграция иностранцев (единое допущение для всех вариантов), тыс.", "en": "IPSS 2002 projection: net migration of foreign nationals (single assumption for all variants), thousands" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2002-01", "variant": "国際人口移動の仮定（全推計共通） / single migration assumption (used in the medium and all other variants)", "values": { "2001": 62.031, "2002": 65.228, "2003": 68.233, "2004": 71.038, "2005": 73.636, "2006": 76.03, "2007": 78.225, "2008": 80.229, "2009": 82.05, "2010": 83.699, "2011": 85.189, "2012": 86.53, "2013": 87.735, "2014": 88.813, "2015": 89.777, "2016": 90.636, "2017": 91.401, "2018": 92.081, "2019": 92.685, "2020": 93.22, "2021": 93.693, "2022": 94.112, "2023": 94.481, "2024": 94.808, "2025": 95.096 }, "src": "https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2002/db_zenkoku2002/s_tables/katei/pp2002_katei_T1_7.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "IPSS 2006", "en": "IPSS 2006" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз IPSS 2006: чистая миграция иностранцев (единое допущение для всех вариантов), тыс.", "en": "IPSS 2006 projection: net migration of foreign nationals (single assumption for all variants), thousands" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2006-12", "variant": "国際人口移動の仮定（全推計共通） / single migration assumption (used in the medium and all other variants)", "values": { "2006": 52.352, "2007": 55.649, "2008": 58.469, "2009": 60.886, "2010": 62.961, "2011": 64.748, "2012": 66.29, "2013": 67.624, "2014": 68.781, "2015": 69.787, "2016": 70.665, "2017": 71.433, "2018": 72.106, "2019": 72.699, "2020": 73.222, "2021": 73.684, "2022": 74.094, "2023": 74.461, "2024": 74.787, "2025": 75.079 }, "src": "https://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/suikei07/houkoku/katei/11-8.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "IPSS 2012", "en": "IPSS 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз IPSS 2012: чистая миграция иностранцев (единое допущение для всех вариантов), тыс.", "en": "IPSS 2012 projection: net migration of foreign nationals (single assumption for all variants), thousands" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2012-01", "variant": "国際人口移動の仮定（全推計共通） / single migration assumption (used in the medium and all other variants)", "values": { "2011": -43.689, "2012": 30.842, "2013": 68.107, "2014": 68.565, "2015": 68.966, "2016": 69.317, "2017": 69.623, "2018": 69.89, "2019": 70.122, "2020": 70.324, "2021": 70.5, "2022": 70.653, "2023": 70.785, "2024": 70.9, "2025": 71.0, "2026": 71.087, "2027": 71.161, "2028": 71.226, "2029": 71.283, "2030": 71.331 }, "src": "https://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/newest04/s-katei/11-10.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "IPSS 2017", "en": "IPSS 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз IPSS 2017: чистая миграция иностранцев (единое допущение для всех вариантов), тыс.", "en": "IPSS 2017 projection: net migration of foreign nationals (single assumption for all variants), thousands" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2017-04", "variant": "国際人口移動の仮定（全推計共通） / single migration assumption (used in the medium and all other variants)", "values": { "2016": 68.777, "2017": 68.864, "2018": 68.937, "2019": 68.997, "2020": 69.047, "2021": 69.088, "2022": 69.123, "2023": 69.151, "2024": 69.175, "2025": 69.195, "2026": 69.211, "2027": 69.225, "2028": 69.235, "2029": 69.245, "2030": 69.252, "2031": 69.258, "2032": 69.264, "2033": 69.268, "2034": 69.272, "2035": 69.274 }, "src": "https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2017/db_zenkoku2017/s_tables/xls/11-10.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "IPSS 2023", "en": "IPSS 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз IPSS 2023: чистая миграция иностранцев (единое допущение для всех вариантов), тыс.", "en": "IPSS 2023 projection: net migration of foreign nationals (single assumption for all variants), thousands" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2023-04-26", "variant": "国際人口移動の仮定（全推計共通） / single migration assumption (used in the medium and all other variants)", "values": { "2022": 163.791, "2023": 163.791, "2024": 163.791, "2025": 163.791, "2026": 163.791, "2027": 163.791, "2028": 163.791, "2029": 163.791, "2030": 163.791, "2031": 163.791, "2032": 163.791, "2033": 163.791, "2034": 163.791, "2035": 163.791, "2036": 163.791, "2037": 163.791, "2038": 163.791, "2039": 163.791, "2040": 163.791 }, "src": "https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2023/db_zenkoku2023/s_tables/ATable9.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2032 ], "view": "c=JPN&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "IPSS publishes no numeric assumption for Japanese nationals (age-specific net migration rates are used), so only foreign nationals are compared; Japanese net migration was small (-2k in the year to Sep 2024).", "Years are October-September (period ending 30 September of the labelled year) on both sides.", "The 2023 IPSS value for 2021 (-28.481k) is an extrapolated actual, not an assumption, and is kept only in notes.", "Statistics Bureau figures from Oct 2020 onwards will be revised after the 2025 census (補間補正); 2000-2016 are rounded thousands.", "IPSS 2017 and 2023 assume constant net inflows after 2035/2040 in terms of rates; only the published yearly numbers to 2035/2040 are stored." ] }, { "id": "kor_migration", "iso3": "KOR", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Южная Корея: в 2011–2025 годах миграция добавила 1,21 млн, а прогноз 2011 года ждал 533 тыс.", "en": "South Korea: the KOSTAT 2011 projection expected net migration of +533k for 2011–2025; the outcome was +1.21M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Южная Корея: чистая миграция — прогнозы KOSTAT и факт", "en": "South Korea: net migration — KOSTAT projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Корея · миграция", "en": "Korea · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов Статистики Кореи против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 5 из 5. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2011 года: за 2011–2025 ждали +533 тыс., вышло +1,21 млн. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "5 projections of Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 5 of 5. The largest miss: KOSTAT 2011 expected +533k for 2011–2025; the outcome was +1.21M. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Чистая международная миграция (KOSTAT, календарные годы; прогнозы — годы июль–июнь)", "en": "Net international migration (KOSTAT, calendar years; the projections use July–June years)" }, "values": { "2000": 8.123, "2001": -32.0, "2002": -16.0, "2003": -42.0, "2004": -49.0, "2005": -95.0, "2006": 48.0, "2007": 78.0, "2008": 55.0, "2009": 20.0, "2010": 82.269, "2011": 91.0, "2012": 7.0, "2013": 85.0, "2014": 142.0, "2015": 61.426, "2016": 75.359, "2017": 106.794, "2018": 156.007, "2019": 31.775, "2020": 112.813, "2021": -65.978, "2022": 88.029, "2023": 121.309, "2024": 125.403, "2025": 74.382 }, "src": "https://mods.go.kr/boardDownload.es?bid=206&list_no=445837&seq=3", "definition": "International Migration Statistics (국제인구이동통계): entries minus exits of Koreans and foreigners who change their country of usual residence for more than 90 days (incl. short-term visa holders who overstay or change status), Ministry of Justice entry/exit records, calendar year (January-December)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "KOSTAT 2011", "en": "KOSTAT 2011" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз KOSTAT 2011 (средний вариант): чистая международная миграция, тыс.", "en": "KOSTAT 2011 projection (medium): net international migration, thousands" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2011-12-07", "variant": "중위 (medium)", "values": { "2011": 36.0, "2012": 37.0, "2013": 37.0, "2014": 37.0, "2015": 37.0, "2016": 37.0, "2017": 37.0, "2018": 37.0, "2019": 37.0, "2020": 36.0, "2021": 35.0, "2022": 34.0, "2023": 33.0, "2024": 32.0, "2025": 31.0, "2026": 31.0, "2027": 30.0, "2028": 29.0, "2029": 30.0, "2030": 30.0, "2035": 31.0, "2040": 32.0, "2045": 32.0, "2050": 31.0, "2055": 27.0, "2060": 23.0 }, "src": "https://mods.go.kr/boardDownload.es?bid=207&list_no=252623&seq=14" }, { "label": { "ru": "KOSTAT 2016", "en": "KOSTAT 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз KOSTAT 2016 (средний вариант): чистая международная миграция, тыс.", "en": "KOSTAT 2016 projection (medium): net international migration, thousands" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2016-12-08", "variant": "중위 (medium)", "values": { "2016": 74.0, "2017": 72.0, "2018": 69.0, "2019": 67.0, "2020": 64.0, "2021": 62.0, "2022": 59.0, "2023": 56.0, "2024": 54.0, "2025": 51.0, "2026": 47.0, "2027": 44.0, "2028": 40.0, "2029": 37.0, "2030": 33.0, "2031": 33.0, "2032": 33.0, "2033": 33.0, "2034": 33.0, "2035": 33.0, "2040": 34.0, "2045": 34.0, "2050": 34.0, "2055": 34.0, "2060": 33.0, "2065": 32.0 }, "src": "https://mods.go.kr/boardDownload.es?bid=207&list_no=357935&seq=3" }, { "label": { "ru": "KOSTAT 2019", "en": "KOSTAT 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз KOSTAT 2019 (средний вариант): чистая международная миграция, тыс.", "en": "KOSTAT 2019 projection (medium): net international migration, thousands" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2019-03-28", "variant": "중위 (medium)", "values": { "2018": 82.0, "2019": 77.0, "2020": 72.0, "2021": 68.0, "2022": 63.0, "2023": 59.0, "2024": 56.0, "2025": 52.0, "2026": 48.0, "2027": 45.0, "2028": 40.0, "2029": 38.0, "2030": 37.0, "2031": 37.0, "2032": 37.0, "2033": 37.0, "2034": 37.0, "2035": 37.0, "2040": 39.0, "2045": 38.0, "2050": 37.0, "2055": 37.0, "2060": 36.0, "2065": 35.0, "2067": 35.0 }, "src": "https://mods.go.kr/boardDownload.es?bid=207&list_no=373873&seq=7" }, { "label": { "ru": "KOSTAT 2021", "en": "KOSTAT 2021" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз KOSTAT 2021 (средний вариант): чистая международная миграция, тыс.", "en": "KOSTAT 2021 projection (medium): net international migration, thousands" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2021-12-09", "variant": "중위 (medium)", "values": { "2021": -63.0, "2022": 8.0, "2023": 43.0, "2024": 58.0, "2025": 57.0, "2026": 55.0, "2027": 53.0, "2028": 51.0, "2029": 49.0, "2030": 46.0, "2031": 46.0, "2032": 46.0, "2033": 46.0, "2034": 46.0, "2035": 45.0, "2036": 46.0, "2037": 46.0, "2038": 46.0, "2039": 46.0, "2040": 46.0, "2045": 45.0, "2050": 43.0, "2055": 42.0, "2060": 43.0, "2065": 41.0, "2070": 40.0 }, "src": "https://mods.go.kr/boardDownload.es?bid=207&list_no=415453&seq=5" }, { "label": { "ru": "KOSTAT 2023", "en": "KOSTAT 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз KOSTAT 2023 (средний вариант): чистая международная миграция, тыс.", "en": "KOSTAT 2023 projection (medium): net international migration, thousands" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2023-12-14", "variant": "중위 (medium)", "values": { "2024": 63.0, "2025": 65.0, "2026": 65.0, "2027": 66.0, "2028": 66.0, "2029": 66.0, "2030": 65.0, "2031": 65.0, "2032": 65.0, "2033": 65.0, "2034": 65.0, "2035": 65.0, "2036": 65.0, "2037": 66.0, "2038": 66.0, "2039": 66.0, "2040": 66.0, "2045": 66.0, "2050": 64.0, "2055": 63.0, "2060": 63.0, "2065": 62.0, "2070": 61.0, "2072": 61.0 }, "src": "https://mods.go.kr/boardDownload.es?bid=207&list_no=428476&seq=6" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2032 ], "view": "c=KOR&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Projection years are July-June while the published actual series is by calendar year (half-year offset); KOSTAT base-year estimates on the July-June basis are given as a second actual series for the years where they exist. Compare cumulative sums over several years rather than single years.", "Base-year values (identical across scenarios) are estimates, not assumptions; they are moved from the projection series to kor_kostat_net_migration_julyjune_est.", "The December 2006 projection (base 2005; report 장래인구추계 2006, scanned copy https://lib1.mods.go.kr/dl_image2/IMG/01/000000001741/SERVICE/000000001741_01.PDF) is not included as a series: its section IV-4 (printed p.35, table IV-15) assumes that the average 2000-2005 sex- and age-specific international migration RATES continue (negative at ages 0-16 for both sexes, mixed at adult ages), and the report publishes no annual net migration counts. Actual net migration then turned positive (+48k in 2006, +78k in 2007, +82k in 2010).", "Values are rounded to whole thousands as published in the press-release tables." ] }, { "id": "phl_population", "iso3": "PHL", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Филиппины: прогноз 2006 года ждал население 111,8 млн на 2020 год — вышло 109 млн", "en": "Philippines: the NSO 2006 projection expected a population of 111.8M for 2020; the outcome was 109M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Филиппины: население — прогнозы PSA и переписи", "en": "Philippines: population — PSA projections vs the censuses" }, "short": { "ru": "Филиппины · население", "en": "Philippines · population" }, "note": { "ru": "4 прогноза статистических ведомств Филиппин сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 4 из 4, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2006 года: ждал на 2020 год 111,8 млн, вышло 109 млн (−2,5%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "4 projections of NSO and PSA (the Philippine statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 4 of 4, above in 0. The largest miss: NSO 2006 expected 111.8M for 2020; the outcome was 109M (−2.5%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Переписи 2010, 2015, 2020 и 2024 годов (PSA, на свои даты)", "en": "The 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2024 censuses (PSA, at their own dates)" }, "values": { "2010": 92337.852, "2015": 100981.437, "2020": 109035.343, "2024": 112729.484 }, "src": "https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/api/v1/en/DB/1A/PO_2024/0211A6DAPG0.px", "definition": "Total population counted by the census at its reference date: 1 May 2010 (CPH), 1 Aug 2015 (POPCEN), 1 May 2020 (CPH), 1 July 2024 (POPCEN); thousands." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "NSO 2006", "en": "NSO 2006" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз NSO 2006 (средний вариант): численность населения на 1 июля, тыс.", "en": "NSO 2006 projection (medium assumption): population on 1 July, thousands" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2006-04-04", "variant": "Medium Assumption", "values": { "2000": 76946.5, "2001": 78568.1, "2002": 80217.2, "2003": 81877.7, "2004": 83558.7, "2005": 85261, "2006": 86972.5, "2007": 88706.3, "2008": 90457.2, "2009": 92226.6, "2010": 94013.2, "2015": 102965.3, "2020": 111784.6, "2025": 120224.5, "2030": 128110, "2035": 135301.1, "2040": 141669.9 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20151022112132/https://psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/attachments/hsd/article/Table%201_1.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "PSA 2016", "en": "PSA 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз PSA 2016 (средний вариант): численность населения на 1 июля, тыс.", "en": "PSA 2016 projection (medium assumption): population on 1 July, thousands" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2016-08-09", "variant": "Medium Assumption", "values": { "2010": 93135.1, "2011": 94823.8, "2012": 96510.9, "2013": 98196.5, "2014": 99880.3, "2015": 101562.3, "2016": 103242.9, "2017": 104921.4, "2018": 106598.6, "2019": 108274.3, "2020": 109947.9, "2025": 117959.4, "2030": 125337.5, "2035": 131903.9, "2040": 137532.2, "2045": 142095.1 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20220325190932/https://psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/2010-Census-Based-National-Regional-and-Provincial-Population-Projections.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "PSA 2019", "en": "PSA 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Обновлённый прогноз PSA 2019 (по переписи 2015): численность населения на 1 июля, тыс.", "en": "PSA 2019 updated projection (2015 POPCEN-based): population on 1 July, thousands" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2019-08-18", "variant": "single updated series; national 2020 and 2025 totals = 2010 CBPP Low Assumption (fast fertility decline)", "values": { "2015": 100833.371, "2016": 102530.196, "2017": 104169.23, "2018": 105755.18, "2019": 107288.15, "2020": 108771.978, "2021": 110198.654, "2022": 111572.254, "2023": 112892.781, "2024": 114163.719, "2025": 115377.992 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20191011054428/http://www.psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/attachments/hsd/pressrelease/Updated%20Population%20Projections%20based%20on%202015%20POPCEN_0.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "PSA 2024", "en": "PSA 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз PSA 2024 (по переписи 2020, официальный ряд): численность населения на 1 июля, тыс.", "en": "PSA 2024 projection (2020 CPH-based, official series): population on 1 July, thousands" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2024-06-03", "variant": "official published series (PSA endorsed Scenario 2 for planning; the OpenSTAT table does not name the scenario, so the link to Scenario 2 is not verified)", "values": { "2020": 109203, "2021": 110082, "2022": 110940, "2023": 111912, "2024": 112885, "2025": 113863, "2026": 114849, "2027": 115846, "2028": 116850, "2029": 117860, "2030": 118874 }, "src": "https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/api/v1/en/DB/1A/PO/0021A3BPOP1.px" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2030 ], "view": "c=PHL&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Access: psa.gov.ph returns a Cloudflare bot-verification page (HTTP 403, not bypassed). PDF/XLSX files were taken from Internet Archive captures of the official psa.gov.ph URLs (source_url = web.archive.org, archive_of = original). Census counts, registered births and the 2020-based projection come from PSA's OpenSTAT PXWeb API, which serves CSV/PX to plain requests.", "Timing: PSA projections refer to 1 July; census counts refer to 1 May 2010, 1 Aug 2015, 1 May 2020 and 1 July 2024. Projection TFR in the 2010-based series is a 5-year-period value; NDHS TFR covers the 3 years before the survey.", "Births: registered births are incomplete (about 90% registration of infants per PSA) and fell sharply in 2020-2021; no PSA projection vintage publishes projected birth counts, so births can only be compared indirectly (TFR).", "Net migration: PSA's 2010-based projection assumed net emigration rising from about 76 thousand a year (2010-2015) to 162 thousand (2040-2045); the 2020-based one assumes about 48-93 thousand a year. The only 'actual' values are PSA's registration-based estimates for 2018-2019 (-67.0 and -57.4 thousand), which PSA itself flags as under-registered.", "Scenario names: 2010-based 'Medium Assumption' = 'moderate' fertility decline; 2020-based 'Scenario 2' is the one PSA endorsed for planning (there is no 'medium' label in that round).", "UN WPP and UN Demographic Yearbook values are not used in this file." ] }, { "id": "mex_population", "iso3": "MEX", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Мексика: прогноз 2006 года ждал население 115,1 млн на 2019 год — вышло 127,2 млн", "en": "Mexico: the CONAPO 2006 projection expected a population of 115.1M for 2019; the outcome was 127.2M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Мексика: население — прогнозы CONAPO и факт", "en": "Mexico: population — CONAPO projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Мексика · население", "en": "Mexico · population" }, "note": { "ru": "4 прогноза Национального совета по населению Мексики сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 0 из 4, выше — в 4. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2006 года: ждал на 2019 год 115,1 млн, вышло 127,2 млн (+10,5%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "4 projections of CONAPO (Mexico's National Population Council) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 0 of 4, above in 4. The largest miss: CONAPO 2006 expected 115.1M for 2019; the outcome was 127.2M (+10.5%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка CONAPO 2023 года на 1 июля (с поправкой на недоучёт переписей)", "en": "CONAPO 2023 estimates for 1 July (corrected for census omission)" }, "values": { "1950": 28463.441, "1951": 29161.024, "1952": 29893.469, "1953": 30669.402, "1954": 31507.175, "1955": 32421.555, "1956": 33381.41, "1957": 34382.245, "1958": 35428.062, "1959": 36527.873, "1960": 37678.427, "1961": 38881.128, "1962": 40133.786, "1963": 41429.336, "1964": 42772.209, "1965": 44157.094, "1966": 45573.114, "1967": 47024.169, "1968": 48507.808, "1969": 50023.146, "1970": 51560.567, "1971": 53133.584, "1972": 54758.696, "1973": 56414.565, "1974": 58097.331, "1975": 59792.538, "1976": 61476.071, "1977": 63139.218, "1978": 64788.304, "1979": 66431.403, "1980": 68072.118, "1981": 69715.468, "1982": 71369.508, "1983": 73034.559, "1984": 74707.346, "1985": 76375.259, "1986": 78028.665, "1987": 79665.004, "1988": 81282.371, "1989": 82889.981, "1990": 84502.988, "1991": 86127.477, "1992": 87753.131, "1993": 89364.56, "1994": 90953.505, "1995": 92506.744, "1996": 94005.638, "1997": 95438.019, "1998": 96799.183, "1999": 98085.415, "2000": 99368.858, "2001": 100739.263, "2002": 102167.274, "2003": 103587.899, "2004": 104970.581, "2005": 106370.948, "2006": 107885.646, "2007": 109538.665, "2008": 111275.915, "2009": 113030.218, "2010": 114756.059, "2011": 116446.18, "2012": 118060.514, "2013": 119597.654, "2014": 121048.604, "2015": 122368.49, "2016": 123587.407, "2017": 124777.172, "2018": 125995.825, "2019": 127215.666 }, "src": "https://conapo.segob.gob.mx/work/models/CONAPO/pry23/DB/ConDem50a19_ProyPob20a70.zip", "definition": "Población a mitad de año: population on 1 July of the year. Values are CONAPO's demographic reconciliation for past years (model estimates combining censuses, vital registration and surveys), not direct measurements." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2002", "en": "CONAPO 2002" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2002 (2000–2050): население на 1 июля", "en": "CONAPO 2002 projection (2000-2050): mid-year population" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2002-12", "variant": "probable (the only series in the national workbook): TFR reaches replacement (2.11) in 2005 and falls to 1.85 from 2030 (logistic); 'low' mortality hypothesis (higher life expectancy); international migration rates of 1995-2000 held constant", "values": { "2000": 100569.263, "2001": 101826.249, "2002": 103039.964, "2003": 104213.503, "2004": 105349.837, "2005": 106451.679, "2006": 107525.207, "2007": 108576.411, "2008": 109607.255, "2009": 110619.34, "2010": 111613.906, "2011": 112591.898, "2012": 113553.916, "2013": 114500.185, "2014": 115430.657, "2015": 116344.933, "2016": 117242.286, "2017": 118121.705, "2018": 118981.977, "2019": 119821.678, "2020": 120639.16, "2021": 121432.566, "2022": 122200.071, "2023": 122939.92, "2024": 123650.367, "2025": 124329.636, "2026": 124975.961, "2027": 125587.863, "2028": 126164.122, "2029": 126703.74, "2030": 127205.586, "2031": 127669.188, "2032": 128094.68, "2033": 128482.042, "2034": 128831.402, "2035": 129143.145, "2036": 129417.761, "2037": 129655.714, "2038": 129857.508, "2039": 130023.637, "2040": 130154.661, "2041": 130251.091, "2042": 130313.225, "2043": 130341.277, "2044": 130335.385, "2045": 130295.752, "2046": 130222.467, "2047": 130115.533, "2048": 129974.9, "2049": 129800.558, "2050": 129592.522 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/00cifras/proy/RM.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2006", "en": "CONAPO 2006" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2006 (2005–2050): население на 1 июля", "en": "CONAPO 2006 projection (2005-2050): mid-year population" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "probable (escenario probable): TFR follows a logistic decline from 2.20 in 2005 towards an asymptote of 1.85 (replacement passed in 2008); constant 2000-2005 age-specific international migration rates; mortality decline at older ages postponed ten years", "values": { "2006": 104874.282, "2007": 105790.725, "2008": 106682.518, "2009": 107550.697, "2010": 108396.211, "2011": 109219.931, "2012": 110022.552, "2013": 110804.591, "2014": 111566.783, "2015": 112310.26, "2016": 113036.756, "2017": 113746.425, "2018": 114437.635, "2019": 115109.547, "2020": 115762.289, "2021": 116395.567, "2022": 117007.442, "2023": 117595.47, "2024": 118157.718, "2025": 118692.987, "2026": 119200.348, "2027": 119678.725, "2028": 120126.931, "2029": 120543.784, "2030": 120928.075, "2031": 121278.986, "2032": 121596.457, "2033": 121880.75, "2034": 122131.721, "2035": 122348.728, "2036": 122531.432, "2037": 122680.609, "2038": 122797.43, "2039": 122882.582, "2040": 122936.136, "2041": 122958.184, "2042": 122949.539, "2043": 122911.26, "2044": 122844.116, "2045": 122748.461, "2046": 122624.516, "2047": 122472.76, "2048": 122293.757, "2049": 122087.969, "2050": 121855.703 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/00cifras/proy/RM.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2012", "en": "CONAPO 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2012 (2010–2050): население на 1 июля", "en": "CONAPO 2012 projection (2010-2050): mid-year population" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2012-12", "variant": "single published projection (no variants in the national workbook)", "values": { "2010": 114255.555, "2011": 115682.868, "2012": 117053.75, "2013": 118395.054, "2014": 119713.203, "2015": 121005.815, "2016": 122273.473, "2017": 123518.27, "2018": 124737.789, "2019": 125929.439, "2020": 127091.642, "2021": 128230.519, "2022": 129351.846, "2023": 130451.691, "2024": 131529.468, "2025": 132584.053, "2026": 133614.19, "2027": 134619.411, "2028": 135599.641, "2029": 136554.494, "2030": 137481.336, "2031": 138383.142, "2032": 139263.092, "2033": 140118.934, "2034": 140950.312, "2035": 141756.92, "2036": 142538.744, "2037": 143295.719, "2038": 144027.641, "2039": 144734.346, "2040": 145415.859, "2041": 146072.453, "2042": 146704.227, "2043": 147311.186, "2044": 147893.396, "2045": 148451.031, "2046": 148984.509, "2047": 149494.163, "2048": 149980.253, "2049": 150443.064, "2050": 150837.517 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/work/models/CONAPO/Proyecciones/2010_2050/RepublicaMexicana.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2018", "en": "CONAPO 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2018 (2016–2050): население на 1 июля", "en": "CONAPO 2018 projection (2016-2050): mid-year population" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2018-09-17", "variant": "median of a probabilistic projection (only series published): Lee-Carter-type time-series models for mortality, fertility and international migration; the TFR is modelled on a logistic scale bounded by 1.6 and 5.0 children with an ARIMA(1,1,0) process and 'la proyección mediana de la TGF' is the published forecast (document 'Proyecciones de la población de México y de las entidades federativas 2016-2050', primera parte, pp. 15-16 and 27)", "values": { "2016": 122715.165, "2017": 124041.731, "2018": 125327.797, "2019": 126577.691, "2020": 127792.286, "2021": 128972.439, "2022": 130118.356, "2023": 131230.255, "2024": 132308.276, "2025": 133352.387, "2026": 134362.934, "2027": 135339.973, "2028": 136283.592, "2029": 137193.751, "2030": 138070.271, "2031": 138912.969, "2032": 139721.625, "2033": 140496.069, "2034": 141235.991, "2035": 141941.27, "2036": 142611.735, "2037": 143247.277, "2038": 143847.469, "2039": 144412.041, "2040": 144940.511, "2041": 145432.569, "2042": 145887.882, "2043": 146306.219, "2044": 146687.548, "2045": 147032.055, "2046": 147339.891, "2047": 147611.293, "2048": 147846.533, "2049": 148045.885, "2050": 148209.594 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/work/models/CONAPO/Datos_Abiertos/Proyecciones2018/ind_dem_proyecciones.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2025 ], "view": "c=MEX&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Births: CONAPO's 'nacimientos' (projections and reconstructions) are model estimates of all births in the year, corrected for under-registration; INEGI's registered births are civil-registry counts. Registration-year counts mix births of several years (2020 depressed by COVID-19 office closures, 2021 catching up); occurrence-year counts are the closest concept but miss births never registered and, for 2021-2025, births still to be registered late. Even CONAPO's own 2023 reconstruction differs from INEGI occurrence counts for 2016-2019 by -0.2% to +9.8% (2017: 2 154 vs 2 157 thousand; 2019: 2 145 vs 1 954 thousand), so part of any projected-vs-registered gap is definitional.", "TFR: the only measured TFRs are ENADID survey estimates for three-year periods (2006-2008 2.26, 2011-2013 2.21, 2015-2017 2.07, 2020-2022 1.60). INEGI publishes no annual vital-statistics TFR. Annual TFRs for past years are CONAPO model reconstructions and change between editions (2015: 2.18 in the 2018 edition, 2.136 in the 2023 edition).", "Net international migration has no direct annual measurement in Mexico; every 'actual' value is a CONAPO reconstruction, and reconstructions differ strongly between editions (2009: +7.6 thousand in the 2018 edition vs -30.8 thousand in 2023; 2015: -151 vs -291 thousand; 2005: -477 thousand in the 2012 edition, -349 in 2018, -388 in 2023). Compare projections with the latest reconstruction and label it as a model estimate. Sign convention in all editions: immigrants minus emigrants, negative = net emigration.", "Two editions start projecting before their publication date: the 2002 edition projects from 1 January 2000 (published December 2002) and the 2012 edition from 1 January 2010 (published December 2012). Their first projected years were partly known when published; the 2006 edition projects from 1 January 2006 (published November 2006), the 2018 edition from 2016 (published September 2018) and the 2023 edition from 2020 (presented July 2023, database August 2023).", "Earlier CONAPO files were removed from conapo.gob.mx; the 2002, 2006, 2012 and 2018 national files and the original 2023 ZIP were retrieved from the Internet Archive (retrieved_via). The 2023 values are identical to the live datos.gob.mx copy. The 2006 edition's earliest archived national workbook dates from April 2007 (five months after publication); its births, net migration and population match the edition's document (PDF dated Feb-Mar 2007), but the TFR printed for 2010 and 2030 in that document (2.08, 1.85) differs from the workbook (2.053, 1.869). The 2018 edition's CSV was later revised in deaths only.", "Population: CONAPO figures are 1 July estimates/projections including census-omission corrections; INEGI census counts (12 June 2010, 15 March 2015 survey, 15 March 2020) are not adjusted and refer to other dates (e.g. 2020: census 126.0 million on 15 March vs CONAPO 2023 edition 128.2 million on 1 July).", "Not covered: CONAPO's 1998 projection (1996-2050) appears only as a 5-year population series in Table 4 of the 2002 document; ENADID 1997/2006 and the Health Ministry's birth-certificate system (SINAC) were not used. No national CONAPO projection newer than the 2023 edition (2020-2070) was found as of 2026-10-04." ] }, { "id": "mex_migration", "iso3": "MEX", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Мексика: в 2006–2019 годах миграция унесла 2,15 млн, а прогноз 2006 года ждал 7,67 млн", "en": "Mexico: the CONAPO 2006 projection expected net migration of −7.67M for 2006–2019; the outcome was −2.15M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Мексика: чистая миграция — прогнозы CONAPO и реконструкция", "en": "Mexico: net migration — CONAPO projections vs reconstruction" }, "short": { "ru": "Мексика · миграция", "en": "Mexico · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "4 прогноза Национального совета по населению Мексики против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 3 из 4. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2006 года: за 2006–2019 ждали −7,67 млн, вышло −2,15 млн. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "4 projections of CONAPO (Mexico's National Population Council) against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 3 of 4. The largest miss: CONAPO 2006 expected −7.67M for 2006–2019; the outcome was −2.15M. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Реконструкция CONAPO 2023 года (прямого учёта нет; реконструкции разных лет сильно расходятся)", "en": "CONAPO 2023 reconstruction (there is no direct count; reconstructions of different years differ a lot)" }, "values": { "1950": -48.983, "1951": -50.971, "1952": -53.886, "1953": -57.824, "1954": -59.924, "1955": -62.379, "1956": -66.916, "1957": -71.936, "1958": -76.569, "1959": -81.148, "1960": -85.587, "1961": -89.009, "1962": -91.839, "1963": -95.271, "1964": -100.252, "1965": -107.972, "1966": -117.713, "1967": -129.196, "1968": -142.08, "1969": -156.919, "1970": -172.746, "1971": -185.086, "1972": -194.023, "1973": -200.764, "1974": -208.096, "1975": -216.682, "1976": -229.592, "1977": -239.672, "1978": -243.863, "1979": -246.18, "1980": -252.319, "1981": -263.92, "1982": -275.887, "1983": -288.197, "1984": -305.003, "1985": -331.47, "1986": -363.845, "1987": -396.127, "1988": -421.449, "1989": -439.764, "1990": -454.479, "1991": -468.408, "1992": -477.564, "1993": -480.999, "1994": -483.306, "1995": -493.176, "1996": -525.378, "1997": -578.328, "1998": -645.799, "1999": -734.452, "2000": -661.427, "2001": -534.974, "2002": -475.517, "2003": -466.186, "2004": -495.588, "2005": -387.845, "2006": -244.14, "2007": -105.524, "2008": -50.342, "2009": -30.82, "2010": -40.842, "2011": -37.833, "2012": -128.486, "2013": -120.063, "2014": -228.815, "2015": -291.052, "2016": -304.476, "2017": -227.501, "2018": -175.364, "2019": -169.627 }, "src": "https://conapo.segob.gob.mx/work/models/CONAPO/pry23/DB/ConDem50a19_ProyPob20a70.zip", "definition": "Migración neta internacional = inmigrantes internacionales - emigrantes internacionales in the calendar year (negative = net outflow). At national level CONAPO's 'crecimiento social' equals net international migration (interstate flows cancel out). Values are CONAPO's demographic reconciliation for past years (model estimates combining censuses, vital registration and surveys), not direct measurements." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2002", "en": "CONAPO 2002" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2002 (2000–2050): чистая международная миграция", "en": "CONAPO 2002 projection (2000-2050): net international migration" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2002-12", "variant": "probable (the only series in the national workbook): TFR reaches replacement (2.11) in 2005 and falls to 1.85 from 2030 (logistic); 'low' mortality hypothesis (higher life expectancy); international migration rates of 1995-2000 held constant", "values": { "2000": -389.616, "2001": -392.003, "2002": -394.12, "2003": -396.129, "2004": -397.988, "2005": -399.729, "2006": -401.38, "2007": -402.793, "2008": -404.025, "2009": -404.977, "2010": -405.65, "2011": -405.999, "2012": -405.988, "2013": -405.617, "2014": -404.872, "2015": -403.74, "2016": -402.244, "2017": -400.442, "2018": -398.32, "2019": -395.943, "2020": -393.333, "2021": -390.525, "2022": -387.564, "2023": -384.511, "2024": -381.347, "2025": -378.122, "2026": -374.867, "2027": -371.617, "2028": -368.372, "2029": -365.151, "2030": -361.944, "2031": -358.781, "2032": -355.666, "2033": -352.588, "2034": -349.549, "2035": -346.565, "2036": -343.625, "2037": -340.686, "2038": -337.785, "2039": -334.892, "2040": -332.01, "2041": -329.161, "2042": -326.285, "2043": -323.428, "2044": -320.541, "2045": -317.662, "2046": -314.756, "2047": -311.848, "2048": -308.949, "2049": -306.048, "2050": -303.172 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/00cifras/proy/RM.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2006", "en": "CONAPO 2006" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2006 (2005–2050): чистая международная миграция", "en": "CONAPO 2006 projection (2005-2050): net international migration" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "probable (escenario probable): TFR follows a logistic decline from 2.20 in 2005 towards an asymptote of 1.85 (replacement passed in 2008); constant 2000-2005 age-specific international migration rates; mortality decline at older ages postponed ten years", "values": { "2006": -559.437, "2007": -558.691, "2008": -557.686, "2009": -556.476, "2010": -555.066, "2011": -553.423, "2012": -551.542, "2013": -549.34, "2014": -546.778, "2015": -543.794, "2016": -540.348, "2017": -536.451, "2018": -532.143, "2019": -527.474, "2020": -522.58, "2021": -517.474, "2022": -512.258, "2023": -507.01, "2024": -501.798, "2025": -496.624, "2026": -491.553, "2027": -486.577, "2028": -481.738, "2029": -477.065, "2030": -472.495, "2031": -468.06, "2032": -463.753, "2033": -459.549, "2034": -455.422, "2035": -451.379, "2036": -447.424, "2037": -443.504, "2038": -439.629, "2039": -435.769, "2040": -431.923, "2041": -428.096, "2042": -424.267, "2043": -420.435, "2044": -416.594, "2045": -412.723, "2046": -408.863, "2047": -404.971, "2048": -401.078, "2049": -397.199, "2050": -393.321 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/00cifras/proy/RM.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2012", "en": "CONAPO 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2012 (2010–2050): чистая международная миграция", "en": "CONAPO 2012 projection (2010-2050): net international migration" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2012-12", "variant": "single published projection (no variants in the national workbook)", "values": { "2010": -182.532, "2011": -203.59, "2012": -222.313, "2013": -239.017, "2014": -253.96, "2015": -267.346, "2016": -279.352, "2017": -290.128, "2018": -299.793, "2019": -308.454, "2020": -316.169, "2021": -317.868, "2022": -319.398, "2023": -320.769, "2024": -321.988, "2025": -323.063, "2026": -324.007, "2027": -324.831, "2028": -325.547, "2029": -326.162, "2030": -326.685, "2031": -327.138, "2032": -327.524, "2033": -327.85, "2034": -328.12, "2035": -328.335, "2036": -328.5, "2037": -328.616, "2038": -328.684, "2039": -328.706, "2040": -328.681, "2041": -328.611, "2042": -328.497, "2043": -328.337, "2044": -328.133, "2045": -327.886, "2046": -327.597, "2047": -327.268, "2048": -326.9, "2049": -326.496, "2050": -326.058 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/work/models/CONAPO/Proyecciones/2010_2050/RepublicaMexicana.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2018", "en": "CONAPO 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2018 (2016–2050): чистая международная миграция", "en": "CONAPO 2018 projection (2016-2050): net international migration" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2018-09-17", "variant": "median of a probabilistic projection (only series published): Lee-Carter-type time-series models for mortality, fertility and international migration; the TFR is modelled on a logistic scale bounded by 1.6 and 5.0 children with an ARIMA(1,1,0) process and 'la proyección mediana de la TGF' is the published forecast (document 'Proyecciones de la población de México y de las entidades federativas 2016-2050', primera parte, pp. 15-16 and 27)", "values": { "2016": -160.201, "2017": -169.283, "2018": -172.88, "2019": -175.601, "2020": -177.638, "2021": -179.577, "2022": -181.439, "2023": -183.229, "2024": -184.869, "2025": -186.239, "2026": -187.228, "2027": -187.941, "2028": -188.58, "2029": -189.268, "2030": -189.984, "2031": -190.739, "2032": -191.522, "2033": -192.281, "2034": -192.909, "2035": -193.285, "2036": -193.403, "2037": -193.377, "2038": -193.368, "2039": -193.372, "2040": -193.421, "2041": -193.56, "2042": -193.741, "2043": -193.907, "2044": -193.949, "2045": -193.787, "2046": -193.434, "2047": -192.958, "2048": -192.437, "2049": -191.896, "2050": -191.41 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/work/models/CONAPO/Datos_Abiertos/Proyecciones2018/ind_dem_proyecciones.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2025 ], "view": "c=MEX&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Births: CONAPO's 'nacimientos' (projections and reconstructions) are model estimates of all births in the year, corrected for under-registration; INEGI's registered births are civil-registry counts. Registration-year counts mix births of several years (2020 depressed by COVID-19 office closures, 2021 catching up); occurrence-year counts are the closest concept but miss births never registered and, for 2021-2025, births still to be registered late. Even CONAPO's own 2023 reconstruction differs from INEGI occurrence counts for 2016-2019 by -0.2% to +9.8% (2017: 2 154 vs 2 157 thousand; 2019: 2 145 vs 1 954 thousand), so part of any projected-vs-registered gap is definitional.", "TFR: the only measured TFRs are ENADID survey estimates for three-year periods (2006-2008 2.26, 2011-2013 2.21, 2015-2017 2.07, 2020-2022 1.60). INEGI publishes no annual vital-statistics TFR. Annual TFRs for past years are CONAPO model reconstructions and change between editions (2015: 2.18 in the 2018 edition, 2.136 in the 2023 edition).", "Net international migration has no direct annual measurement in Mexico; every 'actual' value is a CONAPO reconstruction, and reconstructions differ strongly between editions (2009: +7.6 thousand in the 2018 edition vs -30.8 thousand in 2023; 2015: -151 vs -291 thousand; 2005: -477 thousand in the 2012 edition, -349 in 2018, -388 in 2023). Compare projections with the latest reconstruction and label it as a model estimate. Sign convention in all editions: immigrants minus emigrants, negative = net emigration.", "Two editions start projecting before their publication date: the 2002 edition projects from 1 January 2000 (published December 2002) and the 2012 edition from 1 January 2010 (published December 2012). Their first projected years were partly known when published; the 2006 edition projects from 1 January 2006 (published November 2006), the 2018 edition from 2016 (published September 2018) and the 2023 edition from 2020 (presented July 2023, database August 2023).", "Earlier CONAPO files were removed from conapo.gob.mx; the 2002, 2006, 2012 and 2018 national files and the original 2023 ZIP were retrieved from the Internet Archive (retrieved_via). The 2023 values are identical to the live datos.gob.mx copy. The 2006 edition's earliest archived national workbook dates from April 2007 (five months after publication); its births, net migration and population match the edition's document (PDF dated Feb-Mar 2007), but the TFR printed for 2010 and 2030 in that document (2.08, 1.85) differs from the workbook (2.053, 1.869). The 2018 edition's CSV was later revised in deaths only.", "Population: CONAPO figures are 1 July estimates/projections including census-omission corrections; INEGI census counts (12 June 2010, 15 March 2015 survey, 15 March 2020) are not adjusted and refer to other dates (e.g. 2020: census 126.0 million on 15 March vs CONAPO 2023 edition 128.2 million on 1 July).", "Not covered: CONAPO's 1998 projection (1996-2050) appears only as a 5-year population series in Table 4 of the 2002 document; ENADID 1997/2006 and the Health Ministry's birth-certificate system (SINAC) were not used. No national CONAPO projection newer than the 2023 edition (2020-2070) was found as of 2026-10-04." ] }, { "id": "per_tfr", "iso3": "PER", "section": "demography", "metric": "tfr", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "ребёнка на женщину", "en": "children per woman", "dec": 2 }, "headline": { "ru": "Перу: прогноз 2019 года ждал 2,10 ребёнка на женщину на 2025 год — вышло 1,70", "en": "Peru: the INEI 2019 projection expected fertility of 2.10 for 2025; the outcome was 1.70" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Перу: рождаемость — прогнозы INEI и обследования", "en": "Peru: fertility — INEI projections vs surveys" }, "short": { "ru": "Перу · рождаемость", "en": "Peru · fertility" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза статистического ведомства Перу сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 2, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2019 года: ждал на 2025 год 2,10 ребёнка на женщину, вышло 1,70 (−19,0%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of INEI (the Peruvian statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 2, above in 0. The largest miss: INEI 2019 expected 2.10 for 2025; the outcome was 1.70 (−19.0%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Обследование ENDES (INEI): рождаемость за три года до опроса", "en": "ENDES survey (INEI): fertility over the three years before the interview" }, "values": { "2009": 2.6, "2010": 2.5, "2011": 2.6, "2012": 2.6, "2013": 2.4, "2014": 2.5, "2015": 2.5, "2016": 2.5, "2017": 2.4, "2018": 2.2, "2019": 2.0, "2020": 1.9, "2021": 2.0, "2022": 1.9, "2023": 1.8, "2024": 1.8, "2025": 1.7 }, "src": "https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/10182939/8284085-resumen-peru-encuesta-demografica-y-de-salud-familiar-endes-2025.pdf", "definition": "TFR from the Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Familiar, women 15-49, based on births in the three years before the interview; keyed by survey year (2017-2019 are the pooled 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19 samples)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "INEI 2009", "en": "INEI 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "INEI 2009 (BAD № 36, перепись 2007): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "INEI 2009 (BAD 36, 2007-census base): total fertility rate" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2009-03", "variant": "Hipótesis media (oficial)", "values": { "2010": 2.49, "2011": 2.44, "2012": 2.4, "2013": 2.36, "2014": 2.33, "2015": 2.29, "2016": 2.26, "2017": 2.23, "2018": 2.2, "2019": 2.18, "2020": 2.15, "2021": 2.13, "2022": 2.11, "2023": 2.09, "2024": 2.07, "2025": 2.05, "2026": 2.03, "2027": 2.02, "2028": 2.0, "2029": 1.99, "2030": 1.98, "2031": 1.96, "2032": 1.95, "2033": 1.94, "2034": 1.93, "2035": 1.92, "2036": 1.92, "2037": 1.91, "2038": 1.9, "2039": 1.89, "2040": 1.89, "2041": 1.88, "2042": 1.87, "2043": 1.87, "2044": 1.86, "2045": 1.86, "2046": 1.86, "2047": 1.85, "2048": 1.85, "2049": 1.85, "2050": 1.84 }, "src": "https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/principales_indicadores/libro.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "INEI 2019", "en": "INEI 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "INEI 2019 (BAD № 38, перепись 2017): суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "INEI 2019 (BAD 38, 2017-census base): total fertility rate" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2019-06", "variant": "single scenario", "values": { "2020": 2.2, "2021": 2.2, "2022": 2.2, "2023": 2.1, "2024": 2.1, "2025": 2.1, "2026": 2.1, "2027": 2.1, "2028": 2.0, "2029": 2.0, "2030": 2.0, "2031": 2.0, "2032": 2.0, "2033": 1.9, "2034": 1.9, "2035": 1.9, "2036": 1.9, "2037": 1.9, "2038": 1.9, "2039": 1.9, "2040": 1.8, "2041": 1.8, "2042": 1.8, "2043": 1.8, "2044": 1.8, "2045": 1.8, "2046": 1.8, "2047": 1.7, "2048": 1.7, "2049": 1.7, "2050": 1.7 }, "src": "https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/principales_indicadores/libro_bol_esp_24_4.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=PER&i=tfr,births&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Projection births are model births; CNV counts births with an online birth certificate (no official completeness estimate; manual records excluded from 2019), so CNV understates births to an unknown degree.", "ENDES TFR is a survey estimate for the three years before each survey (95% CI about +-0.1); INEI does not publish a register-based TFR.", "There is no official annual net-migration series. The admin proxy (compiler-derived difference of two INEI/Migraciones cohort stocks) is indicative only; INEI's BAD 38 estimate is a model estimate.", "Quinquennial values are INEI's; annual values for the 2009 and 2019 editions are INEI's own interpolations (Boletines Especiales 17 and 24). Births in BAD 35/36/38 are printed rounded to thousands.", "Census totals refer to census dates (July/October/Aug-Oct), projections to 30 June.", "The 2001 edition is called \"BAD 35\"; the 1995 edition was BAD 34, available online only through the Feb-1996 departmental report (Lib0015).", "A census was taken in 2025 (first results May 2026) but INEI had not published new national projections by Oct 2026." ] }, { "id": "mex_births", "iso3": "MEX", "section": "demography", "metric": "births", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. рождений в год", "en": "thousand births a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Мексика: прогноз 2006 года ждал рождений 1,83 млн на 2019 год — вышло 2,15 млн", "en": "Mexico: the CONAPO 2006 projection expected births of 1.83M for 2019; the outcome was 2.15M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Мексика: рождения — прогнозы CONAPO и факт", "en": "Mexico: births — CONAPO projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Мексика · рождения", "en": "Mexico · births" }, "note": { "ru": "4 прогноза Национального совета по населению Мексики сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 4, выше — в 2. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2006 года: ждал на 2019 год 1,83 млн, вышло 2,15 млн (+17,5%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "4 projections of CONAPO (Mexico's National Population Council) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 4, above in 2. The largest miss: CONAPO 2006 expected 1.83M for 2019; the outcome was 2.15M (+17.5%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Оценка CONAPO 2023 года (все рождения, с поправкой на неполную регистрацию)", "en": "CONAPO 2023 estimates (all births, corrected for under-registration)" }, "values": { "1950": 1279.435, "1951": 1306.962, "1952": 1344.899, "1953": 1390.07, "1954": 1439.054, "1955": 1486.728, "1956": 1529.248, "1957": 1573.845, "1958": 1628.469, "1959": 1686.067, "1960": 1744.298, "1961": 1798.181, "1962": 1851.442, "1963": 1905.116, "1964": 1957.19, "1965": 2002.117, "1966": 2046.646, "1967": 2095.312, "1968": 2147.567, "1969": 2197.078, "1970": 2243.38, "1971": 2285.482, "1972": 2329.428, "1973": 2365.422, "1974": 2386.659, "1975": 2391.784, "1976": 2380.585, "1977": 2365.572, "1978": 2356.245, "1979": 2355.622, "1980": 2362.498, "1981": 2375.14, "1982": 2394.231, "1983": 2414.075, "1984": 2434.522, "1985": 2449.74, "1986": 2459.509, "1987": 2470.501, "1988": 2485.018, "1989": 2507.098, "1990": 2530.46, "1991": 2547.866, "1992": 2551.319, "1993": 2541.501, "1994": 2522.437, "1995": 2497.265, "1996": 2470.911, "1997": 2454.518, "1998": 2454.332, "1999": 2462.716, "2000": 2455.58, "2001": 2431.503, "2002": 2398.489, "2003": 2371.163, "2004": 2354.58, "2005": 2347.543, "2006": 2350.696, "2007": 2361.477, "2008": 2371.202, "2009": 2371.34, "2010": 2356.951, "2011": 2331.74, "2012": 2301.22, "2013": 2280.084, "2014": 2261.392, "2015": 2233.146, "2016": 2186.983, "2017": 2153.797, "2018": 2150.261, "2019": 2145.474 }, "src": "https://conapo.segob.gob.mx/work/models/CONAPO/pry23/DB/ConDem50a19_ProyPob20a70.zip", "definition": "Nacimientos: births in the calendar year as modelled by CONAPO (total births, i.e. corrected for under-registration and late registration; not a count of registrations). Values are CONAPO's demographic reconciliation for past years (model estimates combining censuses, vital registration and surveys), not direct measurements." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2002", "en": "CONAPO 2002" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2002 (2000–2050): число рождений", "en": "CONAPO 2002 projection (2000-2050): births" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2002-12", "variant": "probable (the only series in the national workbook): TFR reaches replacement (2.11) in 2005 and falls to 1.85 from 2030 (logistic); 'low' mortality hypothesis (higher life expectancy); international migration rates of 1995-2000 held constant", "values": { "2000": 2125.932, "2001": 2085.24, "2002": 2048.422, "2003": 2015.234, "2004": 1985.545, "2005": 1959.018, "2006": 1942.914, "2007": 1929.611, "2008": 1918.499, "2009": 1909.279, "2010": 1901.49, "2011": 1894.825, "2012": 1888.873, "2013": 1883.249, "2014": 1877.697, "2015": 1871.776, "2016": 1865.278, "2017": 1857.887, "2018": 1849.529, "2019": 1840.01, "2020": 1829.022, "2021": 1816.632, "2022": 1802.91, "2023": 1788.016, "2024": 1771.916, "2025": 1754.594, "2026": 1736.245, "2027": 1717.247, "2028": 1697.886, "2029": 1678.296, "2030": 1658.065, "2031": 1639.018, "2032": 1620.539, "2033": 1602.856, "2034": 1586.116, "2035": 1570.578, "2036": 1556.138, "2037": 1542.777, "2038": 1530.461, "2039": 1519.165, "2040": 1508.911, "2041": 1499.409, "2042": 1490.415, "2043": 1481.799, "2044": 1473.456, "2045": 1465.296, "2046": 1457.113, "2047": 1448.724, "2048": 1440.049, "2049": 1431.034, "2050": 1421.631 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/00cifras/proy/RM.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2006", "en": "CONAPO 2006" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2006 (2005–2050): число рождений", "en": "CONAPO 2006 projection (2005-2050): births" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "probable (escenario probable): TFR follows a logistic decline from 2.20 in 2005 towards an asymptote of 1.85 (replacement passed in 2008); constant 2000-2005 age-specific international migration rates; mortality decline at older ages postponed ten years", "values": { "2006": 1989.683, "2007": 1971.734, "2008": 1955.284, "2009": 1940.107, "2010": 1926.148, "2011": 1913.353, "2012": 1901.394, "2013": 1890.123, "2014": 1880.026, "2015": 1871.314, "2016": 1862.175, "2017": 1851.19, "2018": 1838.923, "2019": 1826.533, "2020": 1814.975, "2021": 1802.59, "2022": 1787.877, "2023": 1771.427, "2024": 1753.905, "2025": 1736.101, "2026": 1717.947, "2027": 1699.163, "2028": 1679.926, "2029": 1660.089, "2030": 1639.65, "2031": 1619.405, "2032": 1600.031, "2033": 1581.379, "2034": 1562.821, "2035": 1543.813, "2036": 1525.444, "2037": 1508.76, "2038": 1493.397, "2039": 1478.679, "2040": 1463.895, "2041": 1449.677, "2042": 1436.741, "2043": 1424.767, "2044": 1413.336, "2045": 1401.936, "2046": 1390.678, "2047": 1379.811, "2048": 1369.188, "2049": 1358.626, "2050": 1347.882 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/00cifras/proy/RM.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2012", "en": "CONAPO 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2012 (2010–2050): число рождений", "en": "CONAPO 2012 projection (2010-2050): births" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2012-12", "variant": "single published projection (no variants in the national workbook)", "values": { "2010": 2251.731, "2011": 2249.218, "2012": 2247.125, "2013": 2245.228, "2014": 2243.352, "2015": 2241.366, "2016": 2239.217, "2017": 2236.895, "2018": 2234.261, "2019": 2231.117, "2020": 2227.376, "2021": 2223.165, "2022": 2218.658, "2023": 2213.772, "2024": 2208.348, "2025": 2202.237, "2026": 2195.632, "2027": 2188.882, "2028": 2181.994, "2029": 2174.942, "2030": 2167.688, "2031": 2163.448, "2032": 2159.06, "2033": 2154.598, "2034": 2150.129, "2035": 2145.749, "2036": 2141.49, "2037": 2137.296, "2038": 2133.184, "2039": 2129.19, "2040": 2125.398, "2041": 2121.752, "2042": 2118.089, "2043": 2114.403, "2044": 2110.709, "2045": 2107.082, "2046": 2103.502, "2047": 2099.854, "2048": 2096.132, "2049": 2092.343, "2050": 2088.538 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/work/models/CONAPO/Proyecciones/2010_2050/RepublicaMexicana.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CONAPO 2018", "en": "CONAPO 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CONAPO 2018 (2016–2050): число рождений", "en": "CONAPO 2018 projection (2016-2050): births" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2018-09-17", "variant": "median of a probabilistic projection (only series published): Lee-Carter-type time-series models for mortality, fertility and international migration; the TFR is modelled on a logistic scale bounded by 1.6 and 5.0 children with an ARIMA(1,1,0) process and 'la proyección mediana de la TGF' is the published forecast (document 'Proyecciones de la población de México y de las entidades federativas 2016-2050', primera parte, pp. 15-16 and 27)", "values": { "2016": 2224.15, "2017": 2205.49, "2018": 2187.092, "2019": 2169.048, "2020": 2151.358, "2021": 2133.951, "2022": 2116.775, "2023": 2099.809, "2024": 2083.01, "2025": 2066.324, "2026": 2049.767, "2027": 2033.391, "2028": 2017.237, "2029": 2001.347, "2030": 1985.707, "2031": 1970.29, "2032": 1955.038, "2033": 1939.872, "2034": 1924.719, "2035": 1909.526, "2036": 1894.258, "2037": 1878.879, "2038": 1863.368, "2039": 1847.716, "2040": 1831.927, "2041": 1816.018, "2042": 1800.012, "2043": 1783.922, "2044": 1767.783, "2045": 1751.616, "2046": 1735.451, "2047": 1719.315, "2048": 1703.232, "2049": 1687.224, "2050": 1671.327 }, "src": "http://www.conapo.gob.mx/work/models/CONAPO/Datos_Abiertos/Proyecciones2018/ind_dem_proyecciones.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2025 ], "view": "c=MEX&i=births,tfr&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Births: CONAPO's 'nacimientos' (projections and reconstructions) are model estimates of all births in the year, corrected for under-registration; INEGI's registered births are civil-registry counts. Registration-year counts mix births of several years (2020 depressed by COVID-19 office closures, 2021 catching up); occurrence-year counts are the closest concept but miss births never registered and, for 2021-2025, births still to be registered late. Even CONAPO's own 2023 reconstruction differs from INEGI occurrence counts for 2016-2019 by -0.2% to +9.8% (2017: 2 154 vs 2 157 thousand; 2019: 2 145 vs 1 954 thousand), so part of any projected-vs-registered gap is definitional.", "TFR: the only measured TFRs are ENADID survey estimates for three-year periods (2006-2008 2.26, 2011-2013 2.21, 2015-2017 2.07, 2020-2022 1.60). INEGI publishes no annual vital-statistics TFR. Annual TFRs for past years are CONAPO model reconstructions and change between editions (2015: 2.18 in the 2018 edition, 2.136 in the 2023 edition).", "Net international migration has no direct annual measurement in Mexico; every 'actual' value is a CONAPO reconstruction, and reconstructions differ strongly between editions (2009: +7.6 thousand in the 2018 edition vs -30.8 thousand in 2023; 2015: -151 vs -291 thousand; 2005: -477 thousand in the 2012 edition, -349 in 2018, -388 in 2023). Compare projections with the latest reconstruction and label it as a model estimate. Sign convention in all editions: immigrants minus emigrants, negative = net emigration.", "Two editions start projecting before their publication date: the 2002 edition projects from 1 January 2000 (published December 2002) and the 2012 edition from 1 January 2010 (published December 2012). Their first projected years were partly known when published; the 2006 edition projects from 1 January 2006 (published November 2006), the 2018 edition from 2016 (published September 2018) and the 2023 edition from 2020 (presented July 2023, database August 2023).", "Earlier CONAPO files were removed from conapo.gob.mx; the 2002, 2006, 2012 and 2018 national files and the original 2023 ZIP were retrieved from the Internet Archive (retrieved_via). The 2023 values are identical to the live datos.gob.mx copy. The 2006 edition's earliest archived national workbook dates from April 2007 (five months after publication); its births, net migration and population match the edition's document (PDF dated Feb-Mar 2007), but the TFR printed for 2010 and 2030 in that document (2.08, 1.85) differs from the workbook (2.053, 1.869). The 2018 edition's CSV was later revised in deaths only.", "Population: CONAPO figures are 1 July estimates/projections including census-omission corrections; INEGI census counts (12 June 2010, 15 March 2015 survey, 15 March 2020) are not adjusted and refer to other dates (e.g. 2020: census 126.0 million on 15 March vs CONAPO 2023 edition 128.2 million on 1 July).", "Not covered: CONAPO's 1998 projection (1996-2050) appears only as a 5-year population series in Table 4 of the 2002 document; ENADID 1997/2006 and the Health Ministry's birth-certificate system (SINAC) were not used. No national CONAPO projection newer than the 2023 edition (2020-2070) was found as of 2026-10-04." ] }, { "id": "mar_population", "iso3": "MAR", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Марокко: прогноз 2017 года ждал население 37,37 млн на 2024 год — вышло 36,76 млн", "en": "Morocco: the HCP 2017 projection expected a population of 37.37M for 2024; the outcome was 36.76M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Марокко: население — прогнозы HCP и переписи", "en": "Morocco: population — HCP projections vs the censuses" }, "short": { "ru": "Марокко · население", "en": "Morocco · population" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза статистического ведомства Марокко сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 1 из 3, выше — в 2. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2017 года: ждал на 2024 год 37,37 млн, вышло 36,76 млн (−1,6%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of HCP (the Moroccan statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 1 of 3, above in 2. The largest miss: HCP 2017 expected 37.37M for 2024; the outcome was 36.76M (−1.6%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население на 1 июля по переписям 2004, 2014 и 2024 годов (HCP)", "en": "Population on 1 July from the 2004, 2014 and 2024 censuses (HCP)" }, "values": { "2004": 29840, "2014": 33769.512, "2024": 36764.403 }, "src": "https://www.hcp.ma/file/248421/", "definition": "Population of Morocco at 1 July of the census year, obtained by HCP by bringing the September census count (including the \"population comptée à part\") back to mid-year; thousands. These are the jump-off populations of the 2007, 2017 and 2026 projections." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "HCP 2017", "en": "HCP 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз HCP 2017 (средний вариант): численность населения на середину года, тыс.", "en": "HCP 2017 projection (medium variant): mid-year population, thousands" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2017-05", "variant": "variante moyenne", "values": { "2014": 33769.512, "2015": 34124.87, "2016": 34486.536, "2017": 34852.121, "2018": 35219.547, "2019": 35586.616, "2020": 35951.657, "2021": 36313.189, "2022": 36670.216, "2023": 37022.385, "2024": 37369.652, "2025": 37712.153, "2026": 38049.577, "2027": 38381.174, "2028": 38705.839, "2029": 39022.517, "2030": 39329.985, "2031": 39627.394, "2032": 39914.965, "2033": 40193.593, "2034": 40464.503, "2035": 40727.228, "2036": 40980.69, "2037": 41225.117, "2038": 41460.338, "2039": 41686.1, "2040": 41901.756, "2041": 42106.651, "2042": 42301.036, "2043": 42485.563, "2044": 42661.091, "2045": 42829.072, "2046": 42990.488, "2047": 43145.203, "2048": 43292.496, "2049": 43431.322, "2050": 43561.789 }, "src": "https://www.hcp.ma/file/231895/" }, { "label": { "ru": "HCP 2007", "en": "HCP 2007" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз HCP 2007 (средний вариант): численность населения на середину года, тыс.", "en": "HCP 2007 projection (medium variant): mid-year population, thousands" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2007-08", "variant": "variante moyenne", "values": { "2004": 29840, "2005": 30172, "2006": 30506, "2007": 30841, "2008": 31177, "2009": 31514, "2010": 31851, "2011": 32187, "2012": 32522, "2013": 32853, "2014": 33179, "2015": 33503, "2016": 33827, "2017": 34150, "2018": 34473, "2019": 34793, "2020": 35112, "2021": 35427, "2022": 35739, "2023": 36045, "2024": 36345, "2025": 36637, "2026": 36922, "2027": 37201, "2028": 37472, "2029": 37736, "2030": 37994 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20071124161700/http://www.hcp.ma/pubData/Prospective/Pub/Projectionsdelapopulation.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "HCP 2011", "en": "HCP 2011" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз HCP 2011 (промежуточный, по ENDPR 2009-10): численность населения на середину года, тыс.", "en": "HCP 2011 projection (intermediate, ENDPR 2009-10 based): mid-year population, thousands" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2011", "variant": "single published series (variante moyenne implied)", "values": { "2004": 29840, "2005": 30172, "2006": 30509, "2007": 30850, "2008": 31195, "2009": 31543, "2010": 31894, "2011": 32245, "2012": 32597, "2013": 32950, "2014": 33304, "2015": 33656, "2016": 34005, "2017": 34351, "2018": 34692, "2019": 35029, "2020": 35361, "2021": 35687, "2022": 36007, "2023": 36318, "2024": 36620, "2025": 36910, "2026": 37189, "2027": 37454, "2028": 37706, "2029": 37947, "2030": 38175, "2031": 38394, "2032": 38607, "2033": 38814, "2034": 39014, "2035": 39208, "2036": 39395, "2037": 39575, "2038": 39748, "2039": 39917, "2040": 40082, "2041": 40243, "2042": 40398, "2043": 40547, "2044": 40689, "2045": 40823, "2046": 40949, "2047": 41066, "2048": 41174, "2049": 41272, "2050": 41360 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20111113203652/http://www.hcp.ma/Projections-de-la-population-totale-par-groupe-d-age-et-sexe-en-milliers-et-au-milieu-de-l-annee-1960-2050_a676.html?print=1" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2030 ], "view": "c=MAR&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Vintages: HCP/CERED projections of 2007 (base 2004 census, to 2030), 2011 (intermediate: 2004 census structure + ENDPR 2009-10 parameters, annual table to 2050 archived from hcp.ma), May 2017 (base 2014 census, to 2050) and July 2026 (base 2024 census, to 2060). The 2017 report evaluates the intermediate projection (2014 TFR 2.11 projected vs 2.21 measured; net migration rate -2.7 vs -1.8 per 1,000; 33.3 vs 33.8 million), and the 2026 report evaluates the 2017 one (2024 TFR 2.03 vs 1.97; -1.2 vs -1.3 per 1,000; about 600,000 too many people).", "Births: HCP projections do not tabulate births and HCP publishes no complete annual birth count (civil registration incomplete; annual crude birth rates in HCP yearbooks are projection outputs), so no births series is given.", "Population basis: projections and the actuals here are mid-year (1 July) populations including the population counted separately (\"comptée à part\"); census legal populations refer to 1 September and are slightly higher.", "Actual net migration is an HCP residual (intercensal growth minus natural increase) and therefore absorbs differences in census coverage; the projections use the same method for their base-year value.", "The TFR \"actuals\" are census/survey measurements (six points, 1982-2024); there is no annual official TFR series.", "UN WPP estimates are not used anywhere in this file (both HCP reports compare their assumptions with the UN in their own text)." ] }, { "id": "isr_population", "iso3": "ISR", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Израиль: прогноз 2008 года ждал население 8,77 млн на 2020 год — вышло 9,29 млн", "en": "Israel: the CBS 2008 projection expected a population of 8.77M for 2020; the outcome was 9.29M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Израиль: население — прогнозы ЦСБ и факт", "en": "Israel: population — CBS projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Израиль · население", "en": "Israel · population" }, "note": { "ru": "4 прогноза Центрального статистического бюро Израиля сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 1 из 4, выше — в 3. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2008 года: ждал на 2020 год 8,77 млн, вышло 9,29 млн (+5,9%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "4 projections of Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 1 of 4, above in 3. The largest miss: CBS 2008 expected 8.77M for 2020; the outcome was 9.29M (+5.9%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население на конец года (ЦСБ Израиля; перепись 2022 года понизила уровень на 119 тыс.)", "en": "Population at the end of the year (CBS; the 2022 census lowered the level by 119 thousand)" }, "values": { "1990": 4821.7, "1991": 5058.8, "1992": 5195.9, "1993": 5327.6, "1994": 5471.5, "1995": 5612.3, "1996": 5757.9, "1997": 5899.9, "1998": 6041.4, "1999": 6209.1, "2000": 6369.3, "2001": 6508.8, "2002": 6631.1, "2003": 6748.4, "2004": 6869.5, "2005": 6990.7, "2006": 7116.7, "2007": 7243.6, "2008": 7419.1, "2009": 7552.0, "2010": 7695.1, "2011": 7836.6, "2012": 7984.5, "2013": 8134.5, "2014": 8296.9, "2015": 8463.4, "2016": 8628.6, "2017": 8797.9, "2018": 8967.6, "2019": 9140.5, "2020": 9289.8, "2021": 9453.0, "2022": 9542.7, "2023": 9694.3, "2024": 9805.1 }, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2025/2.ShnatonPopulation/st02_01.xlsx", "definition": "De jure population at 31 December, \"Israelis - total\" (Jews and Others plus Arabs; incl. East Jerusalem, the Golan and Israeli residents of the West Bank; excl. foreign workers and other foreigners), thousands." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "CBS 2017", "en": "CBS 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ЦБС Израиля 2017 (средний вариант): численность населения на конец года", "en": "CBS Israel 2017 projection (medium variant): population at end of year" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2017-05-21", "variant": "medium variant (חלופה בינונית)", "values": { "2016": 8625.2, "2017": 8789.5, "2018": 8956.4, "2019": 9125.9, "2020": 9297.8, "2021": 9471.7, "2022": 9647.5, "2023": 9825.6, "2024": 10005.9, "2025": 10188.3, "2026": 10372.5, "2027": 10558.8, "2028": 10747.3, "2029": 10938.0, "2030": 11131.1, "2031": 11326.3, "2032": 11523.9, "2033": 11723.9, "2034": 11926.9, "2035": 12133.4, "2036": 12343.4, "2037": 12557.3, "2038": 12775.1, "2039": 12997.3, "2040": 13223.1, "2041": 13453.3, "2042": 13686.3, "2043": 13922.6, "2044": 14162.5, "2045": 14405.9, "2046": 14652.7, "2047": 14903.0, "2048": 15156.8, "2049": 15413.7, "2050": 15673.5, "2051": 15936.7, "2052": 16203.4, "2053": 16473.2, "2054": 16746.0, "2055": 17022.1, "2056": 17301.4, "2057": 17583.8, "2058": 17868.5, "2059": 18156.3, "2060": 18446.9, "2061": 18741.5, "2062": 19038.9, "2063": 19340.4, "2064": 19645.3, "2065": 19954.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/DocLib/2017/138/01_17_138t2.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBS 2013", "en": "CBS 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ЦБС Израиля 2013 (средний вариант): численность населения на конец года", "en": "CBS Israel 2013 projection (medium variant): population at end of year" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-06-25", "variant": "medium variant (חלופה בינונית)", "values": { "2015": 8388.8, "2020": 9105.9, "2025": 9844.9, "2030": 10604.6, "2035": 11395.6 }, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2019/forcast65/2035/01_13_170t2.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBS 2012", "en": "CBS 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ЦБС Израиля 2012 (средний вариант): численность населения на конец года", "en": "CBS Israel 2012 projection (medium variant): population at end of year" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2012-03-21", "variant": "medium projection (תחזית בינונית)", "values": { "2014": 8183.4, "2019": 8843.0, "2024": 9524.8, "2029": 10237.9, "2034": 10981.2, "2039": 11780.5, "2044": 12649.5, "2049": 13583.4, "2054": 14572.7, "2059": 15607.6 }, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2019/forcast65/2009-2059/tec27x2.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBS 2008", "en": "CBS 2008" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ЦБС Израиля 2008 (средний вариант): численность населения на конец года", "en": "CBS Israel 2008 projection (medium variant): population at end of year" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2008-03-25", "variant": "medium variant (חלופה בינונית)", "values": { "2010": 7577.6, "2015": 8174.5, "2020": 8770.0, "2025": 9367.6, "2030": 9984.6 }, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2019/forcast65/2030/01_08_056t8.xls" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=ISR&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Editions covered: CBS national projections of 2008 (base end-2005, to 2030), 2012 (base end-2009, to 2059), 2013 (base end-2010, to 2035) and 2017 (base end-2015, to 2065). All four are listed on the CBS page \"Projections of Israel's population\" (18.02.2019); no later national projection (base 2020 or the 2022 census) was found: the Internet Archive indexes of CBS media releases and publications for 2018-2026 contain none, and the live CBS pages are rendered by JavaScript behind a bot-detection script that was not bypassed. The 2017 release says CBS updates the projection every five years, so a newer edition may exist and should be checked.", "Population basis: all projections and the actual population, births and migration series refer to the de jure population of Israel as estimated by CBS (registered residents incl. East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights and Israeli residents of the West Bank; excluding foreign workers and other foreigners). The 2022 census lowered the end-2022 estimate by 119.3 thousand (1.2%) against the 2008-census-based series; CBS did not revise 2009-2021, so the actual series breaks in 2022 and comparisons of population levels from 2022 on mix projection error with this revision.", "Fertility: no edition publishes a national TFR path except the 2013 one (two five-year values in the release text). Group TFR assumptions are recorded only where CBS publishes a matching actual group series (Jews; Jews and Others; Moslems; Arabs). The 2012 and 2017 groups \"Jews and Others without Haredim\" and \"Haredim\" have no official actual TFR series and are described in notes only.", "Births and migration in the 2008 and 2013 editions are published only as five-year totals; the annual averages here are derived (total / 5) and flagged \"derived\". Period keys are calendar years inclusive (e.g. \"2011-2015\" = 1 Jan 2011 - 31 Dec 2015); CBS labels table-2 periods of the 2013 edition \"2010-2015\" (end of 2010 to end of 2015).", "Migration definitions: CBS projections and actuals both use the \"migration balance\" = immigrants (incl. immigrating citizens) + family reunification - balance of Israelis staying abroad 365+ days (departures minus returns). The 2008 edition models it only for Jews and Others. Annual actuals 2006-2013 come from Internet Archive copies of Statistical Abstract editions 2008-2014 (retired CBS website).", "Biggest misses (medium variants, computed from the series in this file): 2008 edition births 2016-2020 about 156.9 thousand a year vs 181.7 actual (-14%), Jewish TFR held at 2.6 vs 2.75-3.17 actual in 2006-2024; 2012 edition zero migration vs +32.4 thousand a year actual (2015-2019 average); 2013 edition migration 9.5 thousand a year in 2016-2020 vs 30.1 actual; 2017 edition births 2024 208.6 thousand vs 181.6 actual (+15%), net migration +21.8 thousand vs -18.6 (2024) and about -20 (2025, preliminary); 2017 population end-2024 about 10.0 million vs 9.81 million (after the 2022 census revision).", "UN WPP and academic estimates were not used. Retired-site files (tec27) were cross-checked against the CBS re-hosted copies under /he/publications/DocLib/2019/forcast65/." ] }, { "id": "isr_migration", "iso3": "ISR", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Израиль: в 2010–2025 годах миграция добавила 389 тыс., а прогноз 2012 года её не закладывал", "en": "Israel: the CBS 2012 projection assumed no net migration for 2010–2025; the outcome was +389k" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Израиль: сальдо миграции — прогнозы ЦСБ и факт", "en": "Israel: migration balance — CBS projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Израиль · миграция", "en": "Israel · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза Центрального статистического бюро Израиля против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 2 из 2. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2012 года: за 2010–2025 ждали ноль, вышло +389 тыс. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 2 of 2. The largest miss: CBS 2012 expected zero for 2010–2025; the outcome was +389k. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Сальдо международной миграции (ЦСБ Израиля)", "en": "International migration balance (CBS)" }, "values": { "2006": 16.6, "2007": 15.4, "2008": 12.8, "2009": 13.4, "2010": 18.7, "2011": 16.6, "2012": 19.8, "2013": 20.9, "2014": 29.0, "2015": 33.1, "2016": 28.6, "2017": 31.2, "2018": 30.9, "2019": 38.1, "2020": 21.7, "2021": 30.243, "2022": 81.2, "2023": 27.6, "2024": -18.6, "2025": -20 }, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2025/2.ShnatonPopulation/st02_08.xlsx", "definition": "Migration balance in the calendar year: immigrants (olim, incl. immigrating citizens) plus entries for family reunification, minus the balance of Israelis staying abroad for a year or more (departures minus returns); population of Israelis (excl. foreigners); thousands." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "CBS 2017", "en": "CBS 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ЦБС Израиля 2017 (средний вариант): сальдо международной миграции", "en": "CBS Israel 2017 projection (medium variant): international migration balance" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2017-05-21", "variant": "medium variant (חלופה בינונית)", "values": { "2016": 21.78, "2017": 21.78, "2018": 21.78, "2019": 21.78, "2020": 21.78, "2021": 21.78, "2022": 21.78, "2023": 21.78, "2024": 21.78, "2025": 21.78, "2026": 21.78, "2027": 21.78, "2028": 21.78, "2029": 21.78, "2030": 21.78, "2031": 21.78, "2032": 21.78, "2033": 21.78, "2034": 21.78, "2035": 21.78, "2036": 21.78, "2037": 21.78, "2038": 21.78, "2039": 21.78, "2040": 21.78, "2041": 21.78, "2042": 20.91, "2043": 20.04, "2044": 19.17, "2045": 18.3, "2046": 17.42, "2047": 16.55, "2048": 15.68, "2049": 14.81, "2050": 13.94, "2051": 13.07, "2052": 12.2, "2053": 11.33, "2054": 10.45, "2055": 9.58, "2056": 8.71, "2057": 7.84, "2058": 6.97, "2059": 6.1, "2060": 5.23, "2061": 4.36, "2062": 3.48, "2063": 2.61, "2064": 1.74, "2065": 0.87 }, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2019/forcast65/2065/gr_com2015_65.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBS 2013", "en": "CBS 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ЦБС Израиля 2013 (средний вариант): сальдо миграции, в среднем за год", "en": "CBS Israel 2013 projection (medium variant): migration balance, annual average" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2013-06-25", "variant": "medium variant (חלופה בינונית)", "values": {}, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2019/forcast65/2035/01_13_170t2.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBS 2012", "en": "CBS 2012" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ЦБС Израиля 2012: сальдо миграции (принято равным нулю)", "en": "CBS Israel 2012 projection: migration balance (assumed zero)" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2012-03-21", "variant": "medium projection (תחזית בינונית)", "values": { "2010": 0, "2011": 0, "2012": 0, "2013": 0, "2014": 0, "2015": 0, "2016": 0, "2017": 0, "2018": 0, "2019": 0, "2020": 0, "2021": 0, "2022": 0, "2023": 0, "2024": 0, "2025": 0, "2026": 0, "2027": 0, "2028": 0, "2029": 0, "2030": 0, "2031": 0, "2032": 0, "2033": 0, "2034": 0, "2035": 0, "2036": 0, "2037": 0, "2038": 0, "2039": 0, "2040": 0, "2041": 0, "2042": 0, "2043": 0, "2044": 0, "2045": 0, "2046": 0, "2047": 0, "2048": 0, "2049": 0, "2050": 0, "2051": 0, "2052": 0, "2053": 0, "2054": 0, "2055": 0, "2056": 0, "2057": 0, "2058": 0, "2059": 0 }, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2019/forcast65/2009-2059/tec27.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBS 2008", "en": "CBS 2008" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ЦБС Израиля 2008 (средний вариант): сальдо миграции, в среднем за год", "en": "CBS Israel 2008 projection (medium variant): migration balance, annual average" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2008-03-25", "variant": "medium variant (חלופה בינונית)", "values": {}, "src": "https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/publications/DocLib/2019/forcast65/2030/01_08_056t8.xls" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=ISR&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Editions covered: CBS national projections of 2008 (base end-2005, to 2030), 2012 (base end-2009, to 2059), 2013 (base end-2010, to 2035) and 2017 (base end-2015, to 2065). All four are listed on the CBS page \"Projections of Israel's population\" (18.02.2019); no later national projection (base 2020 or the 2022 census) was found: the Internet Archive indexes of CBS media releases and publications for 2018-2026 contain none, and the live CBS pages are rendered by JavaScript behind a bot-detection script that was not bypassed. The 2017 release says CBS updates the projection every five years, so a newer edition may exist and should be checked.", "Population basis: all projections and the actual population, births and migration series refer to the de jure population of Israel as estimated by CBS (registered residents incl. East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights and Israeli residents of the West Bank; excluding foreign workers and other foreigners). The 2022 census lowered the end-2022 estimate by 119.3 thousand (1.2%) against the 2008-census-based series; CBS did not revise 2009-2021, so the actual series breaks in 2022 and comparisons of population levels from 2022 on mix projection error with this revision.", "Fertility: no edition publishes a national TFR path except the 2013 one (two five-year values in the release text). Group TFR assumptions are recorded only where CBS publishes a matching actual group series (Jews; Jews and Others; Moslems; Arabs). The 2012 and 2017 groups \"Jews and Others without Haredim\" and \"Haredim\" have no official actual TFR series and are described in notes only.", "Births and migration in the 2008 and 2013 editions are published only as five-year totals; the annual averages here are derived (total / 5) and flagged \"derived\". Period keys are calendar years inclusive (e.g. \"2011-2015\" = 1 Jan 2011 - 31 Dec 2015); CBS labels table-2 periods of the 2013 edition \"2010-2015\" (end of 2010 to end of 2015).", "Migration definitions: CBS projections and actuals both use the \"migration balance\" = immigrants (incl. immigrating citizens) + family reunification - balance of Israelis staying abroad 365+ days (departures minus returns). The 2008 edition models it only for Jews and Others. Annual actuals 2006-2013 come from Internet Archive copies of Statistical Abstract editions 2008-2014 (retired CBS website).", "Biggest misses (medium variants, computed from the series in this file): 2008 edition births 2016-2020 about 156.9 thousand a year vs 181.7 actual (-14%), Jewish TFR held at 2.6 vs 2.75-3.17 actual in 2006-2024; 2012 edition zero migration vs +32.4 thousand a year actual (2015-2019 average); 2013 edition migration 9.5 thousand a year in 2016-2020 vs 30.1 actual; 2017 edition births 2024 208.6 thousand vs 181.6 actual (+15%), net migration +21.8 thousand vs -18.6 (2024) and about -20 (2025, preliminary); 2017 population end-2024 about 10.0 million vs 9.81 million (after the 2022 census revision).", "UN WPP and academic estimates were not used. Retired-site files (tec27) were cross-checked against the CBS re-hosted copies under /he/publications/DocLib/2019/forcast65/." ] }, { "id": "sau_population", "iso3": "SAU", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Саудовская Аравия: прогноз 2005 года ждал население 29,86 млн на 2024 год — вышло 35,3 млн", "en": "Saudi Arabia: the MEP 2005 projection expected a population of 29.86M for 2024; the outcome was 35.3M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Саудовская Аравия: население — планы развития и факт", "en": "Saudi Arabia: population — development plans vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Саудовская Аравия · население", "en": "Saudi Arabia · population" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза планов развития Минэкономики и ГАСТАТ (Саудовская Аравия) сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 1 из 3, выше — в 2. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2005 года: ждал на 2024 год 29,86 млн, вышло 35,3 млн (+18,2%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of the Ministry of Economy and Planning's development plans and GASTAT (Saudi Arabia) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 1 of 3, above in 2. The largest miss: MEP 2005 expected 29.86M for 2024; the outcome was 35.3M (+18.2%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население по ряду ГАСТАТ на основе переписи 2022 года", "en": "Population, GASTAT series based on the 2022 census" }, "values": { "2010": 23978.487, "2011": 25091.867, "2012": 26168.861, "2013": 27624.004, "2014": 28309.273, "2015": 29816.382, "2016": 30954.198, "2017": 30977.355, "2018": 30196.281, "2019": 30063.799, "2020": 31552.51, "2021": 30784.383, "2022": 32175.224, "2023": 33702.731, "2024": 35300.28 }, "src": "https://tableau.stats.gov.sa/views/TA9-Population2010-2022byRegionNationalityandGender_17298162510520/Population2010-2022byRegionNationalityandGender.csv", "definition": "Total population (Saudis and non-Saudis), thousands; 2010-2022 census-2022-based series, 2023-2024 mid-year estimates." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "MEP 2005", "en": "MEP 2005" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Министерства экономики и планирования Саудовской Аравии (Восьмой план развития, 2005): численность населения", "en": "Saudi Ministry of Economy and Planning projection (Eighth Development Plan, 2005): total population" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2005", "variant": "single projection (no variants)", "values": { "2009": 24390, "2014": 26520, "2019": 28260, "2024": 29860 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20201117030301id_/https://www.mep.gov.sa/en/AdditionalDocuments/PlansEN/8th/Eighth%20Development%20Plan%20-%20Chapter%201-8%20.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "MEP 2010", "en": "MEP 2010" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Министерства экономики и планирования Саудовской Аравии (Девятый план развития, 2010): численность населения", "en": "Saudi Ministry of Economy and Planning projection (Ninth Development Plan, 2010): total population" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2010", "variant": "single projection (no variants)", "values": { "2014": 28190, "2019": 30530, "2024": 33110 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20211128144542id_/https://www.mep.gov.sa/en/AdditionalDocuments/PlansEN/9th/Ninth%20Development%20Plan%20-%20Chapter%203%20-%20Long%20Term%20Straregy%20For%20The%20Saudi%20Economy%20.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "GASTAT 2020", "en": "GASTAT 2020" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Доцензовый прогноз ГАСТАТ на базе переписи 2010 (опубликован как текущие оценки): численность населения", "en": "GASTAT pre-census projection based on the 2010 census (published as current estimates): total population" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2020", "variant": "single series: pre-census population projection based on the 2010 census, published as annual mid-year estimates (from 2017 re-based on the 2016 Demographic Survey)", "values": { "2010": 27410.508, "2011": 28173.195, "2012": 28896.84, "2013": 29613.064, "2014": 30339.795, "2015": 31062.069, "2016": 31787.58, "2017": 32612.846, "2018": 33413.66, "2019": 34218.169, "2020": 35013.414 }, "src": "https://www.stats.gov.sa/documents/20117/2435265/population_by_age_groups_and_gender_ar_1_%284%29_0.xlsx_fixed_2497827/3ca71f5f-49ba-44b9-dcd5-12499c401091?t=1735153751119" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=SAU&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Official projections found: the long-term population tables of the Eighth (2005) and Ninth (2010) Development Plans of the Ministry of Economy and Planning, prepared with the Central Department of Statistics (and Information), the statistics office of the time (now GASTAT): total, Saudi and non-Saudi population for 2009, 2014, 2019 and 2024. They are single projections without variants or published fertility/migration assumptions, and the non-Saudi paths are explicitly policy-driven (\"decrease in foreign-labor force due to Saudization\"). The plan documents are no longer on mep.gov.sa; Internet Archive copies are used. The Tenth Development Plan (2015-2019) was not found in the archive, and no stand-alone projection report by GASTAT/CDSI was found (GASTAT catalogue, census 2022 tables and documentation, archived population data 1999-2021, site search in English and Arabic for \"projections\", \"population projection\", \"projected population\", \"الإسقاطات السكانية\", \"إسقاطات السكان\", \"توقعات السكان\", \"عدد السكان المتوقع\"). Vision 2030 documents were not found to contain an official numeric population projection.", "What is recorded as projections: GASTAT's own census documentation calls its pre-census annual population figures \"the population projections generated based on the Census 2010\" and says they and all estimates for 2011-2021 had to be revised. These figures (published as mid-year estimates, from 2017 re-based on the 2016 Demographic Survey) are recorded as sau_gastat2020_precensus_population (2010-2020) and sau_gastat2018_precensus_population_saudi/_nonsaudi (2017-2018). They are one-year-ahead or current-year figures, not long-horizon projections, and no assumptions were published with them. Against the census-2022 back-cast they overstated the total population by 0.8-4.2 million in 2010-2020 and Saudi nationals by 3.7 million (22%) in 2017-2018; much of the gap comes from the starting level (the 2010 census counted 18.78 million Saudis; the back-cast puts mid-2010 at 14.05 million), not from assumed future births or migration.", "Biggest misses against the census-2022-based actuals: both plans over-projected Saudi nationals (Ninth Plan 20.70 million for 2014 and 22.97 million for 2019 vs back-cast 15.54 and 17.51 million; 25.48 million for 2024 vs 19.64 million mid-2024) and under-projected non-Saudis (Ninth Plan 7.63 million for 2024 vs 15.67 million; Eighth Plan 4.05 million vs 15.67 million). Totals were closer: Ninth Plan 28.19 million for 2014 vs 28.31 million back-cast, 33.11 million for 2024 vs 35.30 million mid-2024; Eighth Plan 29.86 million for 2024 (-15%). The Saudi-national gap is largely a level revision: the plans agreed with the 2010 census (18.71 million Saudis), which the 2022 census back-cast puts 4.7 million lower.", "Actual population: the census-2022-based back-cast (2010-2022) and the mid-2023/2024 estimates are not on a strictly uniform time reference (2022 = census count; 2023-2024 = mid-year; the reference date of the back-cast years is not stated). GASTAT does not publish an annual births series or a net international migration figure; the cohort-component estimates use National Information Center data on births, deaths and arrivals/departures, but only population totals and TFR are published. The census reports births in the 12 months before the census (484,719 in the \"Births and Newborns\" table) without a clear unit (births vs. women who gave birth), so no births series is recorded.", "TFR sources disagree: the census-based series gives Saudi TFR 3.46 for 2016, the Demographic Survey 2016 gave 2.4. Only the census-based series (2011-2022) and the 2024 values published with the mid-2024 population estimates are recorded.", "UN WPP and World Bank figures were not used." ] }, { "id": "sau_nonsaudis", "iso3": "SAU", "section": "migration", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Саудовская Аравия: прогноз 2005 года ждал иностранцев 4,05 млн на 2024 год — вышло 15,67 млн", "en": "Saudi Arabia: the MEP 2005 projection expected a non-Saudi population of 4.05M for 2024; the outcome was 15.67M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Саудовская Аравия: иностранцы — планы развития и факт", "en": "Saudi Arabia: non-Saudi residents — development plans vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Саудовская Аравия · иностранцы", "en": "Saudi Arabia · non-Saudis" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза планов развития Минэкономики Саудовской Аравии сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 0 из 2, выше — в 2. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2005 года: ждал на 2024 год 4,05 млн, вышло 15,67 млн (+286,8%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Economy and Planning development plans checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 0 of 2, above in 2. The largest miss: MEP 2005 expected 4.05M for 2024; the outcome was 15.67M (+286.8%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Иностранцы (не граждане), ряд ГАСТАТ на основе переписи 2022 года", "en": "Non-Saudis, GASTAT series based on the 2022 census" }, "values": { "2010": 9932.323, "2011": 10749.738, "2012": 11485.315, "2013": 12544.603, "2014": 12774.237, "2015": 13848.311, "2016": 14598.886, "2017": 14280.375, "2018": 13110.645, "2019": 12556.628, "2020": 13573.923, "2021": 12403.714, "2022": 13382.962, "2023": 14456.802, "2024": 15665.022 }, "src": "https://tableau.stats.gov.sa/views/TA9-Population2010-2022byRegionNationalityandGender_17298162510520/Population2010-2022byRegionNationalityandGender.csv?Nationality=Non%20Saudi", "definition": "Non-Saudi residents, thousands; 2010-2022 census-2022-based series, 2023-2024 mid-year estimates." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "MEP 2005", "en": "MEP 2005" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Министерства экономики и планирования Саудовской Аравии (Восьмой план развития, 2005): иностранцы", "en": "Saudi Ministry of Economy and Planning projection (Eighth Development Plan, 2005): non-Saudis" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2005", "variant": "single projection (no variants)", "values": { "2009": 5820, "2014": 5660, "2019": 4940, "2024": 4050 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20201117030301id_/https://www.mep.gov.sa/en/AdditionalDocuments/PlansEN/8th/Eighth%20Development%20Plan%20-%20Chapter%201-8%20.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "MEP 2010", "en": "MEP 2010" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Министерства экономики и планирования Саудовской Аравии (Девятый план развития, 2010): иностранцы", "en": "Saudi Ministry of Economy and Planning projection (Ninth Development Plan, 2010): non-Saudis" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2010", "variant": "single projection (no variants)", "values": { "2014": 7490, "2019": 7560, "2024": 7630 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20211128144542id_/https://www.mep.gov.sa/en/AdditionalDocuments/PlansEN/9th/Ninth%20Development%20Plan%20-%20Chapter%203%20-%20Long%20Term%20Straregy%20For%20The%20Saudi%20Economy%20.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=SAU&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Official projections found: the long-term population tables of the Eighth (2005) and Ninth (2010) Development Plans of the Ministry of Economy and Planning, prepared with the Central Department of Statistics (and Information), the statistics office of the time (now GASTAT): total, Saudi and non-Saudi population for 2009, 2014, 2019 and 2024. They are single projections without variants or published fertility/migration assumptions, and the non-Saudi paths are explicitly policy-driven (\"decrease in foreign-labor force due to Saudization\"). The plan documents are no longer on mep.gov.sa; Internet Archive copies are used. The Tenth Development Plan (2015-2019) was not found in the archive, and no stand-alone projection report by GASTAT/CDSI was found (GASTAT catalogue, census 2022 tables and documentation, archived population data 1999-2021, site search in English and Arabic for \"projections\", \"population projection\", \"projected population\", \"الإسقاطات السكانية\", \"إسقاطات السكان\", \"توقعات السكان\", \"عدد السكان المتوقع\"). Vision 2030 documents were not found to contain an official numeric population projection.", "What is recorded as projections: GASTAT's own census documentation calls its pre-census annual population figures \"the population projections generated based on the Census 2010\" and says they and all estimates for 2011-2021 had to be revised. These figures (published as mid-year estimates, from 2017 re-based on the 2016 Demographic Survey) are recorded as sau_gastat2020_precensus_population (2010-2020) and sau_gastat2018_precensus_population_saudi/_nonsaudi (2017-2018). They are one-year-ahead or current-year figures, not long-horizon projections, and no assumptions were published with them. Against the census-2022 back-cast they overstated the total population by 0.8-4.2 million in 2010-2020 and Saudi nationals by 3.7 million (22%) in 2017-2018; much of the gap comes from the starting level (the 2010 census counted 18.78 million Saudis; the back-cast puts mid-2010 at 14.05 million), not from assumed future births or migration.", "Biggest misses against the census-2022-based actuals: both plans over-projected Saudi nationals (Ninth Plan 20.70 million for 2014 and 22.97 million for 2019 vs back-cast 15.54 and 17.51 million; 25.48 million for 2024 vs 19.64 million mid-2024) and under-projected non-Saudis (Ninth Plan 7.63 million for 2024 vs 15.67 million; Eighth Plan 4.05 million vs 15.67 million). Totals were closer: Ninth Plan 28.19 million for 2014 vs 28.31 million back-cast, 33.11 million for 2024 vs 35.30 million mid-2024; Eighth Plan 29.86 million for 2024 (-15%). The Saudi-national gap is largely a level revision: the plans agreed with the 2010 census (18.71 million Saudis), which the 2022 census back-cast puts 4.7 million lower.", "Actual population: the census-2022-based back-cast (2010-2022) and the mid-2023/2024 estimates are not on a strictly uniform time reference (2022 = census count; 2023-2024 = mid-year; the reference date of the back-cast years is not stated). GASTAT does not publish an annual births series or a net international migration figure; the cohort-component estimates use National Information Center data on births, deaths and arrivals/departures, but only population totals and TFR are published. The census reports births in the 12 months before the census (484,719 in the \"Births and Newborns\" table) without a clear unit (births vs. women who gave birth), so no births series is recorded.", "TFR sources disagree: the census-based series gives Saudi TFR 3.46 for 2016, the Demographic Survey 2016 gave 2.4. Only the census-based series (2011-2022) and the 2024 values published with the mid-2024 population estimates are recorded.", "UN WPP and World Bank figures were not used." ] }, { "id": "irn_population", "iso3": "IRN", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Иран: прогноз 2009 года ждал население 74,73 млн на 2010 год — вышло 74,16 млн", "en": "Iran: the SCI 2009 projection expected a population of 74.73M for 2010; the outcome was 74.16M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Иран: население — прогнозы Статистического центра и переписи", "en": "Iran: population — Statistical Centre projections vs the censuses" }, "short": { "ru": "Иран · население", "en": "Iran · population" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза Статистического центра Ирана сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 1 из 2, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2009 года: ждал на 2010 год 74,73 млн, вышло 74,16 млн (−0,8%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of the Statistical Centre of Iran checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 1 of 2, above in 1. The largest miss: SCI 2009 expected 74.73M for 2010; the outcome was 74.16M (−0.8%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Переписи 2006, 2011 и 2016 годов и межпереписные оценки (Статистический центр Ирана)", "en": "The 2006, 2011 and 2016 censuses and intercensal estimates (Statistical Centre of Iran)" }, "values": { "2007": 71366, "2008": 72266, "2009": 73196, "2010": 74157, "2012": 76075, "2013": 77016, "2014": 77970, "2015": 78940, "1996": 60055.488, "2006": 70495.782, "2011": 75149.669, "2016": 79926.27 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240127162352id_/https://www.amar.org.ir/Portals/1/files/yearbook-2022-23/400-99-03.pdf?ver=t5FDjR-w1I5aatCK96GKSg%3D%3D", "definition": "SCI population estimates for the years between two censuses, made after the later census: 1386-1389 SH (between the 1385 and 1390 censuses) and 1391-1394 SH (between 1390 and 1395); thousands; key = Gregorian year in which the Iranian year starts. Estimates, not counts (reference point within the year not stated); census years are in irn_sci_population. SCI figures for 1396 SH onward are projections and are not stored as actuals." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "SCI 2009", "en": "SCI 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Оценка-прогноз Статистического центра Ирана 2009 (база - перепись 2006): численность населения, тыс.", "en": "Statistical Centre of Iran 2009 estimate-projection (2006 census base): population, thousands" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2009", "variant": "بدون سناریو - «برآورد جمعیت کل کشور ... سالهای 1389-1375»، روش ریاضی (single series, mathematical extrapolation)", "values": { "2006": 70495.782, "2007": 71532.063, "2008": 72583.587, "2009": 73650.566, "2010": 74733.23 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20101113151357id_/http://www.amar.org.ir/Upload/Modules/Contents/asset0/75-89n3.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "SCI 2014", "en": "SCI 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Статистического центра Ирана 2014 (база - перепись 2011): численность населения, тыс.", "en": "Statistical Centre of Iran 2014 projection (2011 census base): population, thousands" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2014", "variant": "بدون نام سناریو - جدول «برآورد و پیش بینی جمعیت استان های کشور ... از سال 1385 تا 1395» (single published series, no scenario named)", "values": { "2011": 75150, "2012": 76038, "2013": 76942, "2014": 77856, "2015": 78773, "2016": 79686 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20140702030827id_/http://www.amar.org.ir/Portals/0/Files/baravord/b_ostani_85-95.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "SCI 2019", "en": "SCI 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Статистического центра Ирана 2019 (основной вариант, СКР 1,95): численность населения, тыс.", "en": "Statistical Centre of Iran 2019 projection (main scenario, TFR 1.95): population, thousands" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2019", "variant": "فرض چهارم: کاهش ملایم میزان باروری کل (1/95 فرزند) - «فرض محتمل» / «فرض عملیاتی» (assumption 4, gentle fertility decline to 1.95; the report's probable/operational assumption)", "values": { "2016": 80038.167, "2021": 84912.293, "2026": 89022.406, "2031": 92338.906, "2036": 95103.985, "2041": 97590.896, "2046": 99788.488, "2051": 101392.32 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20191115132525id_/https://www.amar.org.ir/Portals/0/Files/fulltext/1398/N_brtsvtjkvaato1430.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "SCI 2021", "en": "SCI 2021" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Статистического центра Ирана 2021 (пересмотр, наиболее вероятный сценарий): численность населения, тыс.", "en": "Statistical Centre of Iran 2021 revised projection (more probable scenario): population, thousands" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2021-11-14", "variant": "سناریو دوم: جبران کاهش باروری پس از دوره کرونا و ادامه کاهش شیب ملایم باروری (1.6) - «سناریو محتمل تر» (scenario 2, post-COVID recovery then gentle decline to 1.6; SCI's more probable scenario)", "values": { "2016": 79926, "2017": 81053, "2021": 84055, "2026": 87134, "2031": 89580, "2036": 91446, "2041": 92838, "2046": 93683, "2051": 93632 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20220709233033id_/https://amar.org.ir/Portals/0/Files/baravord/project_total.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2025 ], "view": "c=IRN&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Access: amar.org.ir (Statistical Centre of Iran) refuses connections from here and sabteahval.ir (NOCR) answers every file URL with its home page, so all SCI and NOCR files are Internet Archive captures of the official URLs (source_url = web.archive.org raw-file link, archive_of = original URL). The Internet Archive throttled and for a while blocked this machine, and several 2025 captures of sabteahval.ir are CloudGuard bot-check pages, which limited what could be read (e.g. NOCR news for 1403 SH).", "Vintages: 2009 (1385-census base, single \"estimate\" series to 1389 made by mathematical extrapolation), 2014 (1390-census base, single \"estimation and projection\" series to 1395; the long-range 1390-based scenarios were published only as growth rates and are described in notes, not stored), 2019 (1395-census base, cohort-component, four fertility assumptions; main = assumption 4, TFR 1.95 in 1430) and 2021 (revision, six scenarios; main = scenario 2, post-COVID recovery then 1.6). The 2009 and 2014 series carry no scenario name; they are stored with the id suffix \"medium\" only for consistency. The 2019 projection was first posted as a summary workbook on 2018-05-12 (same figures).", "No vintage publishes projected annual births, so there is no births projection series; TFR assumptions are published only as start/target values (2019: 2.11 -> 1.95 by 1430; 2021: 1.6 by 1430 after a return to the 1398 level around 1403), and only those stated anchors are stored. SCI projections publish population at 5-year steps (2019, 2021 vintages) or annually for a few years (2009, 2014).", "Iranian solar years are keyed by the Gregorian year in which they start (the year starts at Nowruz, 20 or 21 March: 1395 SH = 20 Mar 2016 - 20 Mar 2017 -> \"2016\"). Census-based population points refer to autumn (Aban; 1395: Mehr-Aban) of that year; projection points are 5 years apart from the census base, so \"2021\" is the projection for 1400 SH.", "Population can be checked against counts only up to 2016: no census or register count was published after the 1395 (2016) census (the register-based 1405 census was not available). The 2014 vintage projected 79,686 thousand for 1395 against the census count of 79,926 thousand (-240 thousand, -0.3%); the 2009 vintage ran above SCI's later intercensal estimates (1389: 74,733 vs 74,157 thousand). SCI population numbers for 1396 SH onward are themselves projections (yearbook \"estimates\" mix the 2019 and 2021 vintages) and are not used as actuals, so the post-2016 vintages can be compared with reality only through TFR and registered births.", "Base adjustments: the 2019 projection starts from 80,038,167 = census 79,926,270 + 111,897 under-one-year-olds added for census under-coverage; the 2021 workbook lists the unadjusted census count (79,926 thousand) for 1395.", "Net migration: the 2019 and 2021 SCI projections state a zero (or near-zero) net international migration assumption, recorded as 0 for every projected year; earlier vintages state nothing on migration. Iran publishes no official net international migration series (censuses record only arrivals; emigration is not measured, as SCI itself notes), so there is no actual series to compare with.", "Births are NOCR registrations by Iranian year of registration as printed in the SCI Statistical Yearbooks (no split into current and late registrations); 1403 SH (2024/25) and later years were not found in any file that could be opened; a second births series (SCI, 1396-1400) adds births to foreign nationals and counts births by year of occurrence. TFR actuals come from two different SCI measures: census-based five-year averages (1376-80 to 1391-95; 2.01 for 1391-95) and annual direct estimates from birth registrations for 1395-1400 (2.11 for the single year 1395; stored for the whole resident population \"ایران\"; the Iranian-nationals series \"ایرانی\" is in the notes). No official TFR for 1401 SH onward was found in an SCI file (a 2024 news item by the National Institute for Population Research quotes about 1.6 for 1401-1402 - secondary, not used).", "No SCI projection newer than the 2021 revision was found: SCI's 2025 infographic on the youth share still cites \"پیش‌بینی جمعیت به تفکیک استان از سال 1396 تا 1415\", and a September 2024 IRNA/NIPR article describes the 2021 six-scenario revision as current. UN World Population Prospects and academic projections were not used." ] }, { "id": "egy_population", "iso3": "EGY", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Египет: прогноз 2019 года ждал население 111 млн на 2025 год — вышло 107,9 млн", "en": "Egypt: the CAPMAS 2019 projection expected a population of 111M for 2025; the outcome was 107.9M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Египет: население — прогнозы CAPMAS и факт", "en": "Egypt: population — CAPMAS projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Египет · население", "en": "Egypt · population" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза статистического ведомства Египта сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 2, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2019 года: ждал на 2025 год 111 млн, вышло 107,9 млн (−2,8%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of CAPMAS (the Egyptian statistical office) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 2, above in 0. The largest miss: CAPMAS 2019 expected 111M for 2025; the outcome was 107.9M (−2.8%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население внутри страны на 1 июля, оценка CAPMAS", "en": "Population inside Egypt on 1 July, CAPMAS estimates" }, "values": { "2005": 70653, "2006": 72008, "2007": 73644, "2008": 75194, "2009": 76925, "2010": 78685, "2011": 80530, "2012": 82305, "2013": 84629, "2014": 86814, "2015": 88958, "2016": 91023, "2017": 95203, "2018": 97147, "2019": 98902, "2020": 100604, "2021": 102061, "2022": 103605, "2023": 105174, "2024": 106556, "2025": 107868 }, "src": "https://www.capmas.gov.eg:8080/Publication/Pdf/6975b8dc-3b9a-420b-a115-80e2b37bec36.pdf", "definition": "Estimated population inside Egypt at mid-year (1 July), thousands; CAPMAS carries the census count forward with registered births and deaths (2017 census for 2017 onward; 2007-2016 re-estimated between the 2006 and 2017 censuses). Egyptians abroad are excluded." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "CAPMAS 2019", "en": "CAPMAS 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CAPMAS 2019 (средний вариант): численность населения на середину года, тыс.", "en": "CAPMAS 2019 projection (medium hypothesis): mid-year population, thousands" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2019-02", "variant": "الفرض المتوسط (medium hypothesis: replacement fertility reached in 2042)", "values": { "2017": 95455, "2018": 97512, "2019": 99543, "2020": 101542, "2021": 103504, "2022": 105424, "2023": 107318, "2024": 109181, "2025": 111013, "2026": 112812, "2027": 114578, "2028": 116322, "2029": 118046, "2030": 119753, "2031": 121448, "2032": 123134, "2033": 124818, "2034": 126499, "2035": 128177, "2036": 129859, "2037": 131546, "2038": 133236, "2039": 134912, "2040": 136570, "2041": 138206, "2042": 139813, "2043": 141392, "2044": 142936, "2045": 144442, "2046": 145903, "2047": 147312, "2048": 148677, "2049": 149999, "2050": 151277, "2051": 152508, "2052": 153688 }, "src": "https://www.capmas.gov.eg:8080/Publication/Pdf/446cc5f8-7d54-440d-af7f-6171b990c720.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "CAPMAS 2024", "en": "CAPMAS 2024" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз CAPMAS 2024 (средний вариант): численность населения на середину года, тыс.", "en": "CAPMAS 2024 projection (medium hypothesis): mid-year population, thousands" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2024-03", "variant": "الفرض المتوسط (medium hypothesis: TFR 2.1 reached in 2042)", "values": { "2022": 103605.04, "2023": 105213.912, "2024": 106814.016, "2025": 108404.768, "2026": 109986.168, "2027": 111558.936, "2028": 113121.008, "2029": 114674.8, "2030": 116224.64, "2031": 117769.536, "2032": 119316.64, "2033": 120860.376, "2034": 122400.952, "2035": 123940.816, "2036": 125479.52, "2037": 127018.816, "2038": 128545.024, "2039": 130041.024, "2040": 131501.256, "2041": 132920.232, "2042": 134293.76, "2043": 135641.744, "2044": 136962.784, "2045": 138250.912, "2046": 139503.28, "2047": 140719.728, "2048": 141902.928, "2049": 143050.48, "2050": 144167.872, "2051": 145254.176, "2052": 146300.448, "2053": 147314.848, "2054": 148293.936, "2055": 149243.12, "2056": 150154.864, "2057": 151034.352, "2058": 151876.112, "2059": 152688.496, "2060": 153462.976, "2061": 154201.216, "2062": 154901.856, "2063": 155560.8, "2064": 156187.008, "2065": 156772.384, "2066": 157316.608, "2067": 157827.28, "2068": 158295.52, "2069": 158721.376, "2070": 159113.76, "2071": 159463.856, "2072": 159771.728 }, "src": "https://www.capmas.gov.eg:8080/Publication/Pdf/2a0a196d-f2a4-48f8-8b12-6d739eee08e3.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2010, 2030 ], "view": "c=EGY&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Only two CAPMAS national projection editions exist in the CAPMAS publication catalogue (series \"إسقاطات السكان المستقبلية\", issues 2017 and 2022 = reports issued February 2019 and March 2024). No CAPMAS projection based on the 2006 census was found in the catalogue (4,321 publication issues listed via the CAPMAS API) or in \"Egypt in Figures\" 2011 and 2014; the Internet Archive CDX query for older CAPMAS files timed out (HTTP 504).", "Neither projection report tabulates projected births (only crude birth rates at five-year points in the 2019 report), so births can be compared with projections only through the TFR and population series.", "Basis: both projections and the actual population refer to the population inside Egypt (Egyptians abroad, counted separately by the 2017 census, are excluded). The actual mid-year series is itself census + natural increase with no migration term, so it is not fully independent of births and deaths.", "Net migration: CAPMAS publishes no national net international migration series; both projections assume none.", "TFR comparability: the 2023-2024 TFRs are model-based (PAS TFR-GFR from the crude birth rate); 2017-2019 and 2021-2022 come from registered births by mother's age; 2020 and 2014 are survey values.", "UN WPP estimates are not used anywhere in this file." ] }, { "id": "dza_births", "iso3": "DZA", "section": "demography", "metric": "births", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. рождений в год", "en": "thousand births a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Алжир: прогноз 2018 года ждал рождений 954 тыс. на 2023 год — вышло 895 тыс.", "en": "Algeria: the ONS 2018 projection expected births of 954k for 2023; the outcome was 895k" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Алжир: рождения — прогнозы ONS и факт", "en": "Algeria: births — ONS projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Алжир · рождения", "en": "Algeria · births" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза статистического ведомства Алжира сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 3 из 3, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2018 года: ждал на 2023 год 954 тыс., вышло 895 тыс. (−6,2%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of ONS Algeria checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 3 of 3, above in 0. The largest miss: ONS 2018 expected 954k for 2023; the outcome was 895k (−6.2%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Зарегистрированные рождения (ONS; с 2020 года без поправки на неполную регистрацию)", "en": "Registered births (ONS; from 2020 without the correction for under-registration)" }, "values": { "2001": 619, "2002": 617, "2003": 649, "2004": 669, "2005": 703, "2006": 739, "2007": 783, "2008": 817, "2009": 849, "2010": 888, "2011": 910, "2012": 978, "2013": 963, "2014": 1014, "2015": 1040, "2016": 1067, "2017": 1060, "2018": 1038, "2019": 1034, "2020": 988, "2021": 950, "2022": 915, "2023": 895 }, "src": "https://www.ons.dz/IMG/pdf/Demographie_Alg2020_2023.pdf", "definition": "Live births registered by the communal civil-registration offices (exhaustive ONS survey of the état civil), calendar year, thousands as printed (rounded to the thousand). Up to 2019 ONS corrected the raw registrations with coverage rates last revised in 2002; from 2020 the raw registrations are published without correction (series break between 2019 and 2020)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ONS 2017", "en": "ONS 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ONS 2017 (единственный вариант): число живорождений, тыс.", "en": "ONS 2017 projection (single variant): live births, thousands" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2017-06", "variant": "single variant (no named scenario; 'projections de la population résidente totale')", "values": { "2017": 1045, "2018": 1034, "2019": 1019, "2020": 1001, "2021": 981, "2022": 959, "2023": 937, "2024": 913, "2025": 889, "2026": 866, "2027": 844, "2028": 823, "2029": 805, "2030": 788 }, "src": "https://www.ons.dz/IMG/pdf/DemogAlgerienne_2016.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ONS 2018", "en": "ONS 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ONS 2018 (единственный вариант): число живорождений, тыс.", "en": "ONS 2018 projection (single variant): live births, thousands" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2018-06", "variant": "single variant (no named scenario; 'projections de la population résidente totale')", "values": { "2018": 1051, "2019": 1036, "2020": 1018, "2021": 997, "2022": 976, "2023": 954, "2024": 932, "2025": 911, "2026": 891, "2027": 874, "2028": 859, "2029": 847, "2030": 837, "2031": 830, "2032": 838, "2033": 848, "2034": 859, "2035": 871, "2036": 884, "2037": 897, "2038": 912, "2039": 927, "2040": 942 }, "src": "https://www.ons.dz/IMG/pdf/Demographie_Algerienne_2017.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ONS 2019", "en": "ONS 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз ONS 2019 (единственный вариант): число живорождений, тыс.", "en": "ONS 2019 projection (single variant): live births, thousands" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2019-05", "variant": "single variant (no named scenario; 'projections de la population résidente totale')", "values": { "2019": 1027, "2020": 1011, "2021": 992, "2022": 972, "2023": 952, "2024": 932, "2025": 912, "2026": 894, "2027": 878, "2028": 865, "2029": 854, "2030": 847, "2031": 841, "2032": 838, "2033": 848, "2034": 859, "2035": 871, "2036": 883, "2037": 897, "2038": 911, "2039": 926, "2040": 941 }, "src": "https://www.ons.dz/IMG/pdf/demographie2018.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=DZA&i=births,tfr&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "All Algerian projections found are those printed by ONS inside the annual \"Démographie algérienne\" bulletins (editions 2016, 2017 and 2018; the 2018-based projection is repeated unchanged in the 2019 edition N° 890 and N° 890/Bis). The 2012-2015 bulletins only use projection-based age structures without printing a projection, and the 2020-2023 bulletin (N° 1030, July 2024) prints none. No separate ONS projection report was found on ons.dz.", "Net international migration: ONS population estimates assume zero net migration (\"nous considérons que le solde migratoire est nul, compte tenu de la difficulté à cerner ce phénomène\"); the projection sections do not state a migration assumption, so no projected or actual net-migration series is given.", "Births: the projections are compared with registered births; until 2019 ONS corrected registrations for under-coverage, from 2020 it publishes raw registrations, which makes 2020-2023 actuals somewhat lower than a corrected series would be.", "Population: the \"actual\" mid-year population is itself an ONS estimate (2008 census + natural increase), not a census count, so projection-vs-actual population gaps mostly reflect births and deaths.", "TFR: ONS publishes no TFR after 2019 (N° 1030 dropped the row); projections only state the 2.4 end-point, while actual TFR was 3.0-3.1 in 2012-2019.", "UN WPP estimates are not used anywhere in this file." ] }, { "id": "sgp_population", "iso3": "SGP", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Сингапур: прогноз 2013 года (верхняя граница) ждал население 6 млн на 2020 год — вышло 5,69 млн", "en": "Singapore: the White Paper 2013 (high end) projection expected a population of 6M for 2020; the outcome was 5.69M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Сингапур: население — Белая книга 2013 года и факт", "en": "Singapore: population — the 2013 White Paper vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Сингапур · население", "en": "Singapore · population" }, "note": { "ru": "2 прогноза Белой книги о населении Сингапура 2013 года сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 2, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2013 года (верхняя граница): ждал на 2020 год 6 млн, вышло 5,69 млн (−5,2%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "2 projections of the 2013 Singapore Population White Paper checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 2, above in 0. The largest miss: White Paper 2013 (high end) expected 6M for 2020; the outcome was 5.69M (−5.2%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Всё население на конец июня (SingStat)", "en": "Total population at end-June (SingStat)" }, "values": { "1990": 3047.132, "1991": 3135.083, "1992": 3230.698, "1993": 3313.471, "1994": 3419.048, "1995": 3524.506, "1996": 3670.704, "1997": 3796.038, "1998": 3927.213, "1999": 3958.723, "2000": 4027.887, "2001": 4138.012, "2002": 4175.95, "2003": 4114.826, "2004": 4166.664, "2005": 4265.762, "2006": 4401.365, "2007": 4588.599, "2008": 4839.396, "2009": 4987.573, "2010": 5076.732, "2011": 5183.688, "2012": 5312.437, "2013": 5399.162, "2014": 5469.724, "2015": 5535.002, "2016": 5607.283, "2017": 5612.253, "2018": 5638.676, "2019": 5703.569, "2020": 5685.807, "2021": 5453.566, "2022": 5637.022, "2023": 5917.648, "2024": 6036.86, "2025": 6111.175, "2026": 6208.523 }, "src": "https://tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/api/table/tabledata/M810001", "definition": "Total population (residents and non-residents) at end-June, thousands; Table M810001 \"Indicators On Population, Annual\"." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "White Paper 2013 (нижняя граница)", "en": "White Paper 2013 (low end)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Белая книга о населении 2013 (нижняя граница): всё население", "en": "Population White Paper 2013 (lower bound): total population" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013-01-29", "variant": "lower bound of the published range (no named scenario)", "values": { "2020": 5800, "2030": 6500 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20131008150926id_/http://www.population.sg:80/whitepaper/resource-files/population-white-paper.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "White Paper 2013 (верхняя граница)", "en": "White Paper 2013 (high end)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Белая книга о населении 2013 (верхняя граница): всё население", "en": "Population White Paper 2013 (upper bound): total population" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013-01-29", "variant": "upper bound of the published range (no named scenario)", "values": { "2020": 6000, "2030": 6900 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20131008150926id_/http://www.population.sg:80/whitepaper/resource-files/population-white-paper.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2030 ], "view": "c=SGP&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Singapore does not publish regular long-term national population projections. The only official numeric projections found are the NPTD \"Citizen Population Scenarios\" (April 2012) and the Population White Paper (January 2013), whose figures were computed by the Department of Statistics. Two related vintages only; no later official projection was found (later NPTD \"Population in Brief\" reports give no projections).", "The White Paper gives only ranges for 2020 and 2030 (published to 0.1 million), recorded as lower and upper bounds. Parliament stressed that projections beyond 2020 are planning parameters, not targets. URA Concept Plan planning parameters (e.g. 5.5 million in the 2001 Concept Plan) are not projections and are not recorded.", "Fertility: the scenarios hold TFR at the 2011 level of 1.2 (resident TFR, i.e. citizens and PRs). The actual series is the resident TFR. The citizen-only TFR is not published by SingStat in the same table.", "Migration is set as policy quantities, not net migration: 15,000-25,000 new citizenships and about 30,000 new PR grants a year (most new citizens come from the resident PR pool). Non-resident numbers (1.8-1.9 million in 2020, 2.3-2.5 million in 2030) depend on the foreign workforce. No official net international migration series or projection exists, so there are no net_migration entries.", "Projected births and the citizen population paths are shown only in charts in the NPTD paper and White Paper and were not read off.", "UN WPP is not a substitute for national projections and was not used." ] }, { "id": "rus_population", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Россия: прогноз Росстата 2015 года ждал население 148,3 млн на 2025 год — вышло 146,1 млн", "en": "Russia: the Rosstat 2015 projection expected a population of 148.3M for 2025; the outcome was 146.1M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: население — прогнозы Росстата и факт", "en": "Russia: population — Rosstat projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · население", "en": "Russia · population" }, "note": { "ru": "7 прогнозов Росстата сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 5 из 7, выше — в 2. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз Росстата 2015 года: ждал на 2025 год 148,3 млн, вышло 146,1 млн (−1,5%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "7 projections of Rosstat checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 5 of 7, above in 2. The largest miss: Rosstat 2015 expected 148.3M for 2025; the outcome was 146.1M (−1.5%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население на 1 января (Росстат; с 2012 года пересчитано по переписи 2020 года, без аннексированных в 2022 году областей)", "en": "Population on 1 January (Rosstat; from 2012 recalculated after the 2020 census, without the regions annexed in 2022)" }, "values": { "1990": 147665.1, "1991": 148273.7, "1992": 148514.7, "1993": 148561.7, "1994": 148355.9, "1995": 148459.9, "1996": 148291.6, "1997": 148028.6, "1998": 147802.1, "1999": 147539.4, "2000": 146890.1, "2001": 146303.6, "2002": 145649.3, "2003": 144963.6, "2004": 144333.6, "2005": 143801.0, "2006": 143236.6, "2007": 142862.7, "2008": 142747.5, "2009": 142737.2, "2010": 142833.5, "2011": 142865.4, "2012": 143171.0, "2013": 143585.9, "2014": 144025.3, "2015": 146744.0, "2016": 147182.3, "2017": 147580.0, "2018": 147797.1, "2019": 147840.7, "2020": 147959.3, "2021": 147455.7, "2022": 146980.1, "2023": 146447.4, "2024": 146150.8, "2025": 146119.9 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Chisl_polvozr_01-01-2022_VPN-2020.xlsx", "definition": "Resident population on 1 January, thousand, Rosstat's latest estimates: 1990-2011 as in 'Компоненты изменения общей численности населения' (2004-2010 recalculated after the 2010 census), 1 January 2012-2022 recalculated after the 2020 census (VPN-2020, held in October 2021), 2023-2024 the VPN-2020-based estimates, 2025 the estimate of 14 March 2025. Includes Crimea and Sevastopol from 1 January 2015; excludes the DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts (annexed 2022) throughout." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2015", "en": "Rosstat 2015" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2015), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2015), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-02-06", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2016": 146754.3, "2017": 147100.9, "2018": 147412.7, "2019": 147681.2, "2020": 147904.4, "2021": 148079.7, "2022": 148207.9, "2023": 148293.5, "2024": 148337.7, "2025": 148341.6, "2026": 148304.7, "2027": 148227.6, "2028": 148118.0, "2029": 147987.3, "2030": 147844.6, "2031": 147691.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20150316202445/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2016", "en": "Rosstat 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2016), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2016), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-04-15", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2017": 146865.5, "2018": 147107.1, "2019": 147349.9, "2020": 147509.5, "2021": 147621.4, "2022": 147696.4, "2023": 147734.8, "2024": 147740.1, "2025": 147715.5, "2026": 147663.0, "2027": 147583.4, "2028": 147485.1, "2029": 147377.7, "2030": 147267.0, "2031": 147154.1 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20160717081819/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2017", "en": "Rosstat 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2017), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2017), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-04-19", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2018": 147188.0, "2019": 147511.0, "2020": 147741.9, "2021": 147922.4, "2022": 148068.0, "2023": 148178.1, "2024": 148251.1, "2025": 148286.7, "2026": 148282.4, "2027": 148238.6, "2028": 148161.6, "2029": 148058.4, "2030": 147934.6, "2031": 147792.1, "2032": 147634.5, "2033": 147469.3, "2034": 147304.7, "2035": 147143.5, "2036": 146985.5 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20170806183226/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат февр. 2018", "en": "Rosstat Feb 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (февраль 2018), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (February 2018), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-12-22", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2018": 146859.7, "2019": 146975.7, "2020": 146997.4, "2021": 146980.6, "2022": 146934.2, "2023": 146862.8, "2024": 146771.4, "2025": 146666.1, "2026": 146548.1, "2027": 146419.0, "2028": 146286.0, "2029": 146159.1, "2030": 146053.6, "2031": 145965.7, "2032": 145896.4, "2033": 145849.6, "2034": 145829.7, "2035": 145838.8, "2036": 145877.7 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20180404082202/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат окт. 2018", "en": "Rosstat Oct 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (октябрь 2018), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (October 2018), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-10-03", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2018": 146880.4, "2019": 146796.5, "2020": 146796.5, "2021": 146757.8, "2022": 146675.3, "2023": 146579.6, "2024": 146473.9, "2025": 146360.7, "2026": 146227.5, "2027": 146069.1, "2028": 145893.0, "2029": 145699.2, "2030": 145492.9, "2031": 145275.3, "2032": 145038.1, "2033": 144786.4, "2034": 144529.5, "2035": 144270.4, "2036": 144010.8 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20181105073526/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2019", "en": "Rosstat 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2019), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2019), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-28", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2021": 146650.1, "2022": 146536.9, "2023": 146372.4, "2024": 146135.9, "2025": 145858.3, "2026": 145539.5, "2027": 145210.9, "2028": 144882.9, "2029": 144569.1, "2030": 144274.0, "2031": 143997.2, "2032": 143739.9, "2033": 143506.7, "2034": 143301.4, "2035": 143128.2, "2036": 142993.3 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz35.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2023", "en": "Rosstat 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2023), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2023), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-10-10", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2023": 146447.4, "2024": 146079.7, "2025": 145631.8, "2026": 145159.3, "2027": 144672.2, "2028": 144181.3, "2029": 143709.1, "2030": 143255.2, "2031": 142815.3, "2032": 142391.5, "2033": 141989.2, "2034": 141621.3, "2035": 141279.3, "2036": 140963.0, "2037": 140672.4, "2038": 140413.2, "2039": 140173.2, "2040": 139945.2, "2041": 139726.7, "2042": 139520.5, "2043": 139325.6, "2044": 139135.9, "2045": 138951.9, "2046": 138771.3 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Progn_1.xls" } ], "xRange": [ 2010, 2036 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Editions covered (13): Rosstat's projection as shown in the Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2007 (population and TFR, medium variant) and 2008 (births, medium variant); the gks.ru tables of December 2009, spring 2010, winter 2012/13, 26.08.2014, 06.02.2015, 2016 (15.04/27.05), 2017 (19.04/27.06/24.07), 22.12.2017/22.02.2018, 03.10.2018; the bulletin to 2035 (28.12.2019) and the projection to 2045 (10.10.2023 medium, 29.12.2023 low and high). Earlier editions (2005-2006) and any 2011 or 2013-base edition were not found in Rosstat's files or their Internet Archive copies; no edition was published between December 2019 and October 2023 or after December 2023 (the projection page still shows the 29.12.2023 files; a new projection methodology was approved by Rosstat order No. 543 of 30.09.2025).", "Territory: editions up to August 2014 project Russia without Crimea and Sevastopol; from February 2015 they include them, as do Rosstat's actual series (births from 2014, population from 1 January 2015). Population of the pre-2015 editions is therefore compared with rus_rosstat_population_excl_crimea (a difference computed here from Rosstat's regional rows). Births, TFR and migration are not split: Crimea adds about 1.4% to births and little to migration. No edition and no actual series includes the four regions annexed in 2022 (DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson); the 2023 edition says so explicitly. The annexations are not recognised internationally; the series follow Rosstat's definitions and are not an endorsement of them.", "Census revision: the 2020 census (held in October 2021) raised the population estimate for 1 January 2022 by 1.42 million (to 146,980.1 thousand); Rosstat recalculated 1 January 2012-2022 accordingly but not the births, deaths and migration of those years. Population projections made before 2022 started from the lower pre-census estimates (rus_rosstat_population_pre_vpn2020), so part of their difference from today's estimates is the census revision, not the course of births, deaths or migration.", "War and data: from 2022 the actual series exclude the four annexed regions, while moves from them into the rest of Russia are counted as migration (2023: 93.7 thousand of the 203.6 thousand migration growth came from 'moves within Russia'). Rosstat suspended publication of most demographic statistics in 2025: births and population are available to 2024 (births 2024 operational) and to 1 January 2025; nothing official for 2025 was found.", "Variants: the gks.ru and rosstat.gov.ru tables give low, medium and high variants side by side; where Rosstat first posted only the medium variant (2016, 2017, December 2017, October 2023) the later three-variant file is used and its medium figures were checked to be identical. The 2007 and 2008 yearbook tables show one series, the medium variant (inferred for 2007 from the structure of the section, stated for 2008). Rosstat's earlier TFR, births and population projections for 2018-2023 editions also appear in the demography case of pipeline/demography (rus_tfr, rus_births); this file adds the editions from 2007 to 2015 and population and migration.", "Archive copies: the gks.ru pages and the 2019 bulletin are cited by their Internet Archive captures (source_url; archive_of gives the original address). Rosstat's live files are cited directly; all files were downloaded on 2026-10-04 and are kept in private/research-cache/natproj_war/rus/." ] }, { "id": "rus_population_pre2015", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Россия: прогноз Росстата 2007 года ждал население 136,1 млн на 2025 год — вышло 143,7 млн", "en": "Russia: the Rosstat 2007 projection expected a population of 136.1M for 2025; the outcome was 143.7M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: население — прогнозы Росстата 2007–2014 годов и факт", "en": "Russia: population — Rosstat projections of 2007-2014 vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · население (до 2015)", "en": "Russia · population (pre-2015)" }, "note": { "ru": "5 прогнозов Росстата 2007–2014 годов сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 1 из 5, выше — в 4. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз Росстата 2007 года: ждал на 2025 год 136,1 млн, вышло 143,7 млн (+5,5%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "5 projections of Rosstat made in 2007-2014 checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 1 of 5, above in 4. The largest miss: Rosstat 2007 expected 136.1M for 2025; the outcome was 143.7M (+5.5%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население на 1 января без Крыма и Севастополя (разность рядов Росстата; прогнозы до 2015 года их не включали)", "en": "Population on 1 January without Crimea and Sevastopol (difference of Rosstat series; projections before 2015 did not include them)" }, "values": { "1990": 147665.1, "1991": 148273.7, "1992": 148514.7, "1993": 148561.7, "1994": 148355.9, "1995": 148459.9, "1996": 148291.6, "1997": 148028.6, "1998": 147802.1, "1999": 147539.4, "2000": 146890.1, "2001": 146303.6, "2002": 145649.3, "2003": 144963.6, "2004": 144333.6, "2005": 143801.0, "2006": 143236.6, "2007": 142862.7, "2008": 142747.5, "2009": 142737.2, "2010": 142833.5, "2011": 142865.4, "2012": 143171.0, "2013": 143585.9, "2014": 144025.3, "2015": 144449.1, "2016": 144832.3, "2017": 145198.6, "2018": 145387.9, "2019": 145408.3, "2020": 145498.3, "2021": 144992.0, "2022": 144501.5, "2023": 143972.3, "2024": 143679.9, "2025": 143659.4 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Chisl_polvozr_01-01-2022_VPN-2020.xlsx", "definition": "rus_rosstat_population minus the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol rows of the same Rosstat files, 1 January 2015-2025 (to 2014 the same as rus_rosstat_population). Comparable with the editions made before 2015, which projected Russia without Crimea." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2007", "en": "Rosstat 2007" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2007), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2007), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2007", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2008": 141634.1, "2009": 141161.2, "2010": 140760.3, "2011": 140439.5, "2012": 140182.7, "2013": 139972.4, "2014": 139785.0, "2015": 139586.7, "2016": 139385.9, "2017": 139147.0, "2018": 138880.4, "2019": 138582.4, "2020": 138257.0, "2021": 137892.4, "2022": 137496.6, "2023": 137066.1, "2024": 136605.9, "2025": 136114.8, "2026": 135594.8 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20190507010534/http://www.gks.ru:80/bgd/regl/B07_16/IssWWW.exe/Stg/08-01.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2009", "en": "Rosstat 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2009), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2009), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2010": 141820.5, "2011": 141761.0, "2012": 141723.5, "2013": 141695.5, "2014": 141675.7, "2015": 141662.5, "2016": 141653.5, "2017": 141648.5, "2018": 141629.8, "2019": 141589.4, "2020": 141525.4, "2021": 141427.6, "2022": 141306.1, "2023": 141155.8, "2024": 140972.5, "2025": 140767.2, "2026": 140532.7, "2027": 140267.5, "2028": 139980.2, "2029": 139676.2, "2030": 139366.4, "2031": 139048.5 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20091205094408/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2010", "en": "Rosstat 2010" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2010), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2010), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2010", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2011": 141996.1, "2012": 142063.0, "2013": 142104.2, "2014": 142139.3, "2015": 142160.9, "2016": 142168.6, "2017": 142144.6, "2018": 142096.0, "2019": 142016.6, "2020": 141908.0, "2021": 141770.7, "2022": 141602.8, "2023": 141403.5, "2024": 141173.5, "2025": 140916.1, "2026": 140643.3, "2027": 140347.3, "2028": 140030.6, "2029": 139705.6, "2030": 139371.8, "2031": 139041.8 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20100501184224/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2013", "en": "Rosstat 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2013), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2013), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2012": 143056.4, "2013": 143356.9, "2014": 143553.8, "2015": 143704.8, "2016": 143817.7, "2017": 143891.6, "2018": 143927.5, "2019": 143927.9, "2020": 143892.1, "2021": 143828.1, "2022": 143734.1, "2023": 143607.5, "2024": 143444.7, "2025": 143251.8, "2026": 143028.3, "2027": 142777.2, "2028": 142501.6, "2029": 142213.2, "2030": 141916.7, "2031": 141612.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20130224113657/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2014", "en": "Rosstat 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2014), средний вариант: численность населения на 1 января", "en": "Rosstat projection (2014), medium variant: population on 1 January" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-08-26", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2015": 143815.0, "2016": 144019.3, "2017": 144188.0, "2018": 144324.2, "2019": 144416.2, "2020": 144473.3, "2021": 144497.0, "2022": 144496.8, "2023": 144462.5, "2024": 144398.8, "2025": 144304.5, "2026": 144177.9, "2027": 144021.2, "2028": 143842.1, "2029": 143642.3, "2030": 143425.8, "2031": 143194.2 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20140929065158/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2031 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Editions covered (13): Rosstat's projection as shown in the Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2007 (population and TFR, medium variant) and 2008 (births, medium variant); the gks.ru tables of December 2009, spring 2010, winter 2012/13, 26.08.2014, 06.02.2015, 2016 (15.04/27.05), 2017 (19.04/27.06/24.07), 22.12.2017/22.02.2018, 03.10.2018; the bulletin to 2035 (28.12.2019) and the projection to 2045 (10.10.2023 medium, 29.12.2023 low and high). Earlier editions (2005-2006) and any 2011 or 2013-base edition were not found in Rosstat's files or their Internet Archive copies; no edition was published between December 2019 and October 2023 or after December 2023 (the projection page still shows the 29.12.2023 files; a new projection methodology was approved by Rosstat order No. 543 of 30.09.2025).", "Territory: editions up to August 2014 project Russia without Crimea and Sevastopol; from February 2015 they include them, as do Rosstat's actual series (births from 2014, population from 1 January 2015). Population of the pre-2015 editions is therefore compared with rus_rosstat_population_excl_crimea (a difference computed here from Rosstat's regional rows). Births, TFR and migration are not split: Crimea adds about 1.4% to births and little to migration. No edition and no actual series includes the four regions annexed in 2022 (DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson); the 2023 edition says so explicitly. The annexations are not recognised internationally; the series follow Rosstat's definitions and are not an endorsement of them.", "Census revision: the 2020 census (held in October 2021) raised the population estimate for 1 January 2022 by 1.42 million (to 146,980.1 thousand); Rosstat recalculated 1 January 2012-2022 accordingly but not the births, deaths and migration of those years. Population projections made before 2022 started from the lower pre-census estimates (rus_rosstat_population_pre_vpn2020), so part of their difference from today's estimates is the census revision, not the course of births, deaths or migration.", "War and data: from 2022 the actual series exclude the four annexed regions, while moves from them into the rest of Russia are counted as migration (2023: 93.7 thousand of the 203.6 thousand migration growth came from 'moves within Russia'). Rosstat suspended publication of most demographic statistics in 2025: births and population are available to 2024 (births 2024 operational) and to 1 January 2025; nothing official for 2025 was found.", "Variants: the gks.ru and rosstat.gov.ru tables give low, medium and high variants side by side; where Rosstat first posted only the medium variant (2016, 2017, December 2017, October 2023) the later three-variant file is used and its medium figures were checked to be identical. The 2007 and 2008 yearbook tables show one series, the medium variant (inferred for 2007 from the structure of the section, stated for 2008). Rosstat's earlier TFR, births and population projections for 2018-2023 editions also appear in the demography case of pipeline/demography (rus_tfr, rus_births); this file adds the editions from 2007 to 2015 and population and migration.", "Archive copies: the gks.ru pages and the 2019 bulletin are cited by their Internet Archive captures (source_url; archive_of gives the original address). Rosstat's live files are cited directly; all files were downloaded on 2026-10-04 and are kept in private/research-cache/natproj_war/rus/." ] }, { "id": "rus_births_rosstat", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "demography", "metric": "births", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. рождений в год", "en": "thousand births a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Россия: прогноз Росстата 2017 года ждал рождений 1,64 млн на 2024 год — вышло 1,22 млн", "en": "Russia: the Rosstat 2017 projection expected births of 1.64M for 2024; the outcome was 1.22M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: рождения — прогнозы Росстата 2008–2023 годов и факт", "en": "Russia: births — Rosstat projections of 2008-2023 vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · рождения (все прогнозы)", "en": "Russia · births (all editions)" }, "note": { "ru": "12 прогнозов Росстата сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 11 из 12, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз Росстата 2017 года: ждал на 2024 год 1,64 млн, вышло 1,22 млн (−25,6%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "12 projections of Rosstat checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 11 of 12, above in 1. The largest miss: Rosstat 2017 expected 1.64M for 2024; the outcome was 1.22M (−25.6%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Родившиеся (Росстат; 2024 — оперативные данные; с 2014 года с Крымом)", "en": "Live births (Rosstat; 2024 operational; with Crimea from 2014)" }, "values": { "1990": 1988.858, "1995": 1363.806, "2000": 1266.8, "2001": 1311.604, "2002": 1396.967, "2003": 1477.301, "2004": 1502.477, "2005": 1457.376, "2006": 1479.637, "2007": 1610.122, "2008": 1713.947, "2009": 1761.687, "2010": 1788.948, "2011": 1796.629, "2012": 1902.084, "2013": 1895.822, "2014": 1942.683, "2015": 1940.579, "2016": 1888.729, "2017": 1690.307, "2018": 1604.344, "2019": 1481.074, "2020": 1436.514, "2021": 1398.253, "2022": 1304.087, "2023": 1264.354, "2024": 1222.408 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/demo21_2023.xlsx", "definition": "Live births in the calendar year, thousand. 1990-2023 final (Rosstat, 'Рождаемость, смертность и естественный прирост населения', demo21_2023.xlsx); 2024 operational data by date of registration (EDN January-December 2024, table 1.2). Includes Crimea and Sevastopol from 2014 (footnote 3 of the table); excludes the DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts from 2022." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2008", "en": "Rosstat 2008" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2008), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2008), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2008", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2009": 1656.331, "2010": 1682.634, "2011": 1694.947, "2012": 1694.67, "2013": 1683.413, "2014": 1662.414, "2015": 1647.748, "2016": 1629.373, "2017": 1596.67, "2018": 1566.738, "2019": 1534.596, "2020": 1495.788, "2021": 1462.781, "2022": 1418.411, "2023": 1383.815, "2024": 1353.015, "2025": 1323.251 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20170523094705/http://www.gks.ru:80/bgd/regl/B08_16/IssWWW.exe/Stg/html1/08-05.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2009", "en": "Rosstat 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2009), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2009), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2010": 1736.906, "2011": 1735.859, "2012": 1726.054, "2013": 1714.098, "2014": 1703.11, "2015": 1690.024, "2016": 1675.505, "2017": 1644.54, "2018": 1606.838, "2019": 1565.795, "2020": 1518.044, "2021": 1476.733, "2022": 1434.093, "2023": 1390.824, "2024": 1356.279, "2025": 1322.567, "2026": 1295.059, "2027": 1276.363, "2028": 1266.55, "2029": 1266.106, "2030": 1264.162 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20100115071814/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2010", "en": "Rosstat 2010" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2010), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2010), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2010", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2010": 1773.799, "2011": 1746.639, "2012": 1704.834, "2013": 1682.14, "2014": 1657.923, "2015": 1639.313, "2016": 1602.955, "2017": 1572.214, "2018": 1532.421, "2019": 1496.266, "2020": 1460.039, "2021": 1413.47, "2022": 1373.685, "2023": 1337.972, "2024": 1306.505, "2025": 1281.722, "2026": 1263.204, "2027": 1248.298, "2028": 1245.302, "2029": 1247.1, "2030": 1258.447 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20100516044013/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2013", "en": "Rosstat 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2013), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2013), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2012": 1888.002, "2013": 1753.704, "2014": 1712.421, "2015": 1681.714, "2016": 1646.326, "2017": 1612.762, "2018": 1580.72, "2019": 1551.656, "2020": 1525.286, "2021": 1496.726, "2022": 1465.235, "2023": 1433.763, "2024": 1404.794, "2025": 1375.863, "2026": 1350.646, "2027": 1333.647, "2028": 1325.148, "2029": 1322.216, "2030": 1320.943 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20130320092603/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2014", "en": "Rosstat 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2014), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2014), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-08-26", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2015": 1764.636, "2016": 1705.52, "2017": 1656.944, "2018": 1602.428, "2019": 1557.847, "2020": 1518.077, "2021": 1488.09, "2022": 1459.807, "2023": 1437.174, "2024": 1415.938, "2025": 1392.474, "2026": 1371.651, "2027": 1358.018, "2028": 1353.161, "2029": 1354.195, "2030": 1356.837 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20140929065523/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2015", "en": "Rosstat 2015" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2015), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2015), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-02-06", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2015": 1914.014, "2016": 1879.727, "2017": 1842.106, "2018": 1798.323, "2019": 1754.285, "2020": 1708.009, "2021": 1662.55, "2022": 1621.327, "2023": 1582.302, "2024": 1544.223, "2025": 1506.376, "2026": 1469.944, "2027": 1442.566, "2028": 1427.567, "2029": 1422.764, "2030": 1419.887 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20150321143035/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2016", "en": "Rosstat 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2016), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2016), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-04-15", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2016": 1917.1, "2017": 1855.7, "2018": 1864.0, "2019": 1786.7, "2020": 1745.0, "2021": 1711.8, "2022": 1677.1, "2023": 1644.8, "2024": 1615.1, "2025": 1585.6, "2026": 1556.6, "2027": 1536.0, "2028": 1524.9, "2029": 1519.8, "2030": 1516.4 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20160717081828/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2017", "en": "Rosstat 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2017), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2017), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-04-19", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2017": 1841.179, "2018": 1869.946, "2019": 1790.152, "2020": 1750.997, "2021": 1726.004, "2022": 1700.044, "2023": 1671.508, "2024": 1642.074, "2025": 1609.702, "2026": 1577.713, "2027": 1551.681, "2028": 1532.852, "2029": 1519.464, "2030": 1509.175, "2031": 1503.929, "2032": 1507.733, "2033": 1519.895, "2034": 1536.751, "2035": 1554.089 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20170913010959/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат февр. 2018", "en": "Rosstat Feb 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (февраль 2018), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (February 2018), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-12-22", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2017": 1683.526, "2018": 1715.138, "2019": 1612.425, "2020": 1565.18, "2021": 1526.981, "2022": 1493.931, "2023": 1465.565, "2024": 1442.159, "2025": 1418.6, "2026": 1395.927, "2027": 1379.612, "2028": 1370.477, "2029": 1370.526, "2030": 1370.231, "2031": 1373.016, "2032": 1383.247, "2033": 1400.43, "2034": 1421.304, "2035": 1442.375 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20180304162601/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат окт. 2018", "en": "Rosstat Oct 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (октябрь 2018), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (October 2018), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-10-03", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2018": 1620.785, "2019": 1592.24, "2020": 1541.209, "2021": 1485.098, "2022": 1460.754, "2023": 1441.061, "2024": 1426.098, "2025": 1399.776, "2026": 1369.929, "2027": 1349.564, "2028": 1331.739, "2029": 1321.65, "2030": 1318.351, "2031": 1319.509, "2032": 1326.049, "2033": 1343.316, "2034": 1364.608, "2035": 1387.829 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20181221080938/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn5.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2019", "en": "Rosstat 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2019), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2019), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-28", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2020": 1433.277, "2021": 1412.831, "2022": 1363.037, "2023": 1291.787, "2024": 1249.607, "2025": 1205.656, "2026": 1189.547, "2027": 1182.167, "2028": 1182.101, "2029": 1186.592, "2030": 1192.088, "2031": 1200.975, "2032": 1216.865, "2033": 1238.455, "2034": 1264.095, "2035": 1289.244 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz35.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2023", "en": "Rosstat 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2023), средний вариант: число родившихся", "en": "Rosstat projection (2023), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-10-10", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2023": 1244.5, "2024": 1171.7, "2025": 1153.1, "2026": 1143.1, "2027": 1140.4, "2028": 1155.8, "2029": 1172.1, "2030": 1181.6, "2031": 1193.4, "2032": 1215.8, "2033": 1246.1, "2034": 1266.9, "2035": 1290.6, "2036": 1317.1, "2037": 1350.1, "2038": 1372.7, "2039": 1389.2, "2040": 1403.4, "2041": 1416.9, "2042": 1423.0, "2043": 1423.9, "2044": 1426.4, "2045": 1426.2 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Progn_5.xls" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2035 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=births,tfr&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Editions covered (13): Rosstat's projection as shown in the Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2007 (population and TFR, medium variant) and 2008 (births, medium variant); the gks.ru tables of December 2009, spring 2010, winter 2012/13, 26.08.2014, 06.02.2015, 2016 (15.04/27.05), 2017 (19.04/27.06/24.07), 22.12.2017/22.02.2018, 03.10.2018; the bulletin to 2035 (28.12.2019) and the projection to 2045 (10.10.2023 medium, 29.12.2023 low and high). Earlier editions (2005-2006) and any 2011 or 2013-base edition were not found in Rosstat's files or their Internet Archive copies; no edition was published between December 2019 and October 2023 or after December 2023 (the projection page still shows the 29.12.2023 files; a new projection methodology was approved by Rosstat order No. 543 of 30.09.2025).", "Territory: editions up to August 2014 project Russia without Crimea and Sevastopol; from February 2015 they include them, as do Rosstat's actual series (births from 2014, population from 1 January 2015). Population of the pre-2015 editions is therefore compared with rus_rosstat_population_excl_crimea (a difference computed here from Rosstat's regional rows). Births, TFR and migration are not split: Crimea adds about 1.4% to births and little to migration. No edition and no actual series includes the four regions annexed in 2022 (DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson); the 2023 edition says so explicitly. The annexations are not recognised internationally; the series follow Rosstat's definitions and are not an endorsement of them.", "Census revision: the 2020 census (held in October 2021) raised the population estimate for 1 January 2022 by 1.42 million (to 146,980.1 thousand); Rosstat recalculated 1 January 2012-2022 accordingly but not the births, deaths and migration of those years. Population projections made before 2022 started from the lower pre-census estimates (rus_rosstat_population_pre_vpn2020), so part of their difference from today's estimates is the census revision, not the course of births, deaths or migration.", "War and data: from 2022 the actual series exclude the four annexed regions, while moves from them into the rest of Russia are counted as migration (2023: 93.7 thousand of the 203.6 thousand migration growth came from 'moves within Russia'). Rosstat suspended publication of most demographic statistics in 2025: births and population are available to 2024 (births 2024 operational) and to 1 January 2025; nothing official for 2025 was found.", "Variants: the gks.ru and rosstat.gov.ru tables give low, medium and high variants side by side; where Rosstat first posted only the medium variant (2016, 2017, December 2017, October 2023) the later three-variant file is used and its medium figures were checked to be identical. The 2007 and 2008 yearbook tables show one series, the medium variant (inferred for 2007 from the structure of the section, stated for 2008). Rosstat's earlier TFR, births and population projections for 2018-2023 editions also appear in the demography case of pipeline/demography (rus_tfr, rus_births); this file adds the editions from 2007 to 2015 and population and migration.", "Archive copies: the gks.ru pages and the 2019 bulletin are cited by their Internet Archive captures (source_url; archive_of gives the original address). Rosstat's live files are cited directly; all files were downloaded on 2026-10-04 and are kept in private/research-cache/natproj_war/rus/." ] }, { "id": "rus_tfr_rosstat", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "demography", "metric": "tfr", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "ребёнка на женщину", "en": "children per woman", "dec": 2 }, "headline": { "ru": "Россия: прогноз Росстата 2017 года ждал 1,87 ребёнка на женщину на 2024 год — вышло 1,40", "en": "Russia: the Rosstat 2017 projection expected fertility of 1.87 for 2024; the outcome was 1.40" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: рождаемость — прогнозы Росстата 2007–2023 годов и факт", "en": "Russia: fertility — Rosstat projections of 2007-2023 vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · рождаемость (все прогнозы)", "en": "Russia · fertility (all editions)" }, "note": { "ru": "12 прогнозов Росстата сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 11 из 12, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз Росстата 2017 года: ждал на 2024 год 1,87 ребёнка на женщину, вышло 1,40 (−25,0%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "12 projections of Rosstat checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 11 of 12, above in 1. The largest miss: Rosstat 2017 expected 1.87 for 2024; the outcome was 1.40 (−25.0%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости (Росстат, ежегодник 2025; 2011–2021 пересчитан по переписи 2020 года)", "en": "Total fertility rate (Rosstat, 2025 yearbook; 2011-2021 recalculated after the 2020 census)" }, "values": { "1990": 1.892, "1995": 1.337, "2000": 1.195, "2001": 1.223, "2002": 1.286, "2003": 1.32, "2004": 1.344, "2005": 1.294, "2006": 1.305, "2007": 1.416, "2008": 1.502, "2009": 1.542, "2010": 1.567, "2011": 1.581, "2012": 1.686, "2013": 1.699, "2014": 1.739, "2015": 1.762, "2016": 1.744, "2017": 1.601, "2018": 1.556, "2019": 1.477, "2020": 1.474, "2021": 1.47, "2022": 1.416, "2023": 1.41, "2024": 1.4 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Ejegodnik_2025.rar", "definition": "Total fertility rate, live births per woman, from the Russian Statistical Yearbook 2025, table 4.14 (2011-2021 recalculated with the VPN-2020 population; 2022 onwards without the four regions annexed in 2022)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2007", "en": "Rosstat 2007" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2007), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2007), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2007", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2008": 1.36, "2009": 1.4, "2010": 1.45, "2011": 1.512, "2012": 1.56, "2013": 1.589, "2014": 1.578, "2015": 1.574, "2016": 1.576, "2017": 1.585, "2018": 1.594, "2019": 1.599, "2020": 1.595, "2021": 1.61, "2022": 1.612, "2023": 1.615, "2024": 1.617, "2025": 1.62 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20080617224504/http://www.gks.ru:80/bgd/regl/B07_16/IssWWW.exe/Stg/08-08.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2009", "en": "Rosstat 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2009), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2009), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2010": 1.539, "2011": 1.548, "2012": 1.555, "2013": 1.562, "2014": 1.572, "2015": 1.587, "2016": 1.6, "2017": 1.611, "2018": 1.622, "2019": 1.632, "2020": 1.641, "2021": 1.65, "2022": 1.658, "2023": 1.666, "2024": 1.673, "2025": 1.68, "2026": 1.687, "2027": 1.694, "2028": 1.699, "2029": 1.704, "2030": 1.704 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20100115071841/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2010", "en": "Rosstat 2010" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2010), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2010), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2010", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2010": 1.573, "2011": 1.563, "2012": 1.544, "2013": 1.548, "2014": 1.553, "2015": 1.565, "2016": 1.572, "2017": 1.582, "2018": 1.588, "2019": 1.598, "2020": 1.607, "2021": 1.612, "2022": 1.616, "2023": 1.62, "2024": 1.623, "2025": 1.632, "2026": 1.645, "2027": 1.654, "2028": 1.666, "2029": 1.675, "2030": 1.69 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20100814055038/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2013", "en": "Rosstat 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2013), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2013), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2012": 1.697, "2013": 1.598, "2014": 1.586, "2015": 1.587, "2016": 1.585, "2017": 1.586, "2018": 1.589, "2019": 1.596, "2020": 1.608, "2021": 1.618, "2022": 1.624, "2023": 1.63, "2024": 1.637, "2025": 1.643, "2026": 1.651, "2027": 1.659, "2028": 1.668, "2029": 1.677, "2030": 1.686 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20130921104444/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2014", "en": "Rosstat 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2014), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2014), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-08-26", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2015": 1.66, "2016": 1.637, "2017": 1.625, "2018": 1.607, "2019": 1.599, "2020": 1.594, "2021": 1.599, "2022": 1.603, "2023": 1.612, "2024": 1.621, "2025": 1.629, "2026": 1.636, "2027": 1.644, "2028": 1.652, "2029": 1.66, "2030": 1.67 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20140929065527/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2015", "en": "Rosstat 2015" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2015), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2015), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-02-06", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2015": 1.768, "2016": 1.77, "2017": 1.771, "2018": 1.768, "2019": 1.765, "2020": 1.761, "2021": 1.757, "2022": 1.755, "2023": 1.752, "2024": 1.749, "2025": 1.746, "2026": 1.744, "2027": 1.745, "2028": 1.75, "2029": 1.76, "2030": 1.77 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20150321160318/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2016", "en": "Rosstat 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2016), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2016), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-04-15", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2016": 1.806, "2017": 1.786, "2018": 1.837, "2019": 1.808, "2020": 1.812, "2021": 1.825, "2022": 1.834, "2023": 1.843, "2024": 1.852, "2025": 1.861, "2026": 1.867, "2027": 1.873, "2028": 1.879, "2029": 1.885, "2030": 1.89 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20160717071608/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2017", "en": "Rosstat 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2017), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2017), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-04-19", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2017": 1.76, "2018": 1.824, "2019": 1.792, "2020": 1.8, "2021": 1.821, "2022": 1.84, "2023": 1.855, "2024": 1.867, "2025": 1.876, "2026": 1.881, "2027": 1.883, "2028": 1.882, "2029": 1.88, "2030": 1.879, "2031": 1.879, "2032": 1.879, "2033": 1.879, "2034": 1.879, "2035": 1.879 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20170712141059/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат февр. 2018", "en": "Rosstat Feb 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (февраль 2018), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (February 2018), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-12-22", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2017": 1.608, "2018": 1.675, "2019": 1.61, "2020": 1.6, "2021": 1.6, "2022": 1.605, "2023": 1.615, "2024": 1.63, "2025": 1.646, "2026": 1.661, "2027": 1.676, "2028": 1.69, "2029": 1.704, "2030": 1.717, "2031": 1.729, "2032": 1.74, "2033": 1.75, "2034": 1.759, "2035": 1.768 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20180404042824/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат окт. 2018", "en": "Rosstat Oct 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (октябрь 2018), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (October 2018), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-10-03", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2018": 1.6, "2019": 1.61, "2020": 1.599, "2021": 1.583, "2022": 1.598, "2023": 1.616, "2024": 1.639, "2025": 1.647, "2026": 1.65, "2027": 1.655, "2028": 1.655, "2029": 1.657, "2030": 1.665, "2031": 1.672, "2032": 1.676, "2033": 1.684, "2034": 1.691, "2035": 1.7 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20181008174914/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn6.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2019", "en": "Rosstat 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2019), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2019), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-28", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2020": 1.489, "2021": 1.506, "2022": 1.489, "2023": 1.446, "2024": 1.432, "2025": 1.415, "2026": 1.428, "2027": 1.445, "2028": 1.463, "2029": 1.481, "2030": 1.499, "2031": 1.516, "2032": 1.533, "2033": 1.549, "2034": 1.564, "2035": 1.579 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz35.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2023", "en": "Rosstat 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2023), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Rosstat projection (2023), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-10-10", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2023": 1.371, "2024": 1.321, "2025": 1.332, "2026": 1.352, "2027": 1.374, "2028": 1.412, "2029": 1.447, "2030": 1.473, "2031": 1.496, "2032": 1.523, "2033": 1.551, "2034": 1.564, "2035": 1.581, "2036": 1.599, "2037": 1.62, "2038": 1.63, "2039": 1.635, "2040": 1.64, "2041": 1.645, "2042": 1.645, "2043": 1.647, "2044": 1.655, "2045": 1.663 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Progn_6.xls" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2035 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=tfr,births&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Editions covered (13): Rosstat's projection as shown in the Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2007 (population and TFR, medium variant) and 2008 (births, medium variant); the gks.ru tables of December 2009, spring 2010, winter 2012/13, 26.08.2014, 06.02.2015, 2016 (15.04/27.05), 2017 (19.04/27.06/24.07), 22.12.2017/22.02.2018, 03.10.2018; the bulletin to 2035 (28.12.2019) and the projection to 2045 (10.10.2023 medium, 29.12.2023 low and high). Earlier editions (2005-2006) and any 2011 or 2013-base edition were not found in Rosstat's files or their Internet Archive copies; no edition was published between December 2019 and October 2023 or after December 2023 (the projection page still shows the 29.12.2023 files; a new projection methodology was approved by Rosstat order No. 543 of 30.09.2025).", "Territory: editions up to August 2014 project Russia without Crimea and Sevastopol; from February 2015 they include them, as do Rosstat's actual series (births from 2014, population from 1 January 2015). Population of the pre-2015 editions is therefore compared with rus_rosstat_population_excl_crimea (a difference computed here from Rosstat's regional rows). Births, TFR and migration are not split: Crimea adds about 1.4% to births and little to migration. No edition and no actual series includes the four regions annexed in 2022 (DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson); the 2023 edition says so explicitly. The annexations are not recognised internationally; the series follow Rosstat's definitions and are not an endorsement of them.", "Census revision: the 2020 census (held in October 2021) raised the population estimate for 1 January 2022 by 1.42 million (to 146,980.1 thousand); Rosstat recalculated 1 January 2012-2022 accordingly but not the births, deaths and migration of those years. Population projections made before 2022 started from the lower pre-census estimates (rus_rosstat_population_pre_vpn2020), so part of their difference from today's estimates is the census revision, not the course of births, deaths or migration.", "War and data: from 2022 the actual series exclude the four annexed regions, while moves from them into the rest of Russia are counted as migration (2023: 93.7 thousand of the 203.6 thousand migration growth came from 'moves within Russia'). Rosstat suspended publication of most demographic statistics in 2025: births and population are available to 2024 (births 2024 operational) and to 1 January 2025; nothing official for 2025 was found.", "Variants: the gks.ru and rosstat.gov.ru tables give low, medium and high variants side by side; where Rosstat first posted only the medium variant (2016, 2017, December 2017, October 2023) the later three-variant file is used and its medium figures were checked to be identical. The 2007 and 2008 yearbook tables show one series, the medium variant (inferred for 2007 from the structure of the section, stated for 2008). Rosstat's earlier TFR, births and population projections for 2018-2023 editions also appear in the demography case of pipeline/demography (rus_tfr, rus_births); this file adds the editions from 2007 to 2015 and population and migration.", "Archive copies: the gks.ru pages and the 2019 bulletin are cited by their Internet Archive captures (source_url; archive_of gives the original address). Rosstat's live files are cited directly; all files were downloaded on 2026-10-04 and are kept in private/research-cache/natproj_war/rus/." ] }, { "id": "rus_migration", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "migration", "metric": "net_migration", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек в год", "en": "thousand persons a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Россия: в 2010–2024 годах миграция добавила 4 млн, а прогноз Росстата 2009 года ждал 5,26 млн", "en": "Russia: the Rosstat 2009 projection expected net migration of +5.26M for 2010–2024; the outcome was +4M" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "cumulative", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: миграционный прирост — прогнозы Росстата и факт", "en": "Russia: net migration — Rosstat projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · миграция", "en": "Russia · migration" }, "note": { "ru": "10 прогнозов Росстата против факта за годы, которые каждый из них уже покрыл (суммы за эти годы): факт выше прогноза в 2 из 10. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз Росстата 2009 года: за 2010–2024 ждали +5,26 млн, вышло +4 млн. Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "10 projections of Rosstat against the facts over the years each has covered (sums over those years): the outcome above the projection in 2 of 10. The largest miss: Rosstat 2009 expected +5.26M for 2010–2024; the outcome was +4M. The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Миграционный прирост (Росстат; с 2011 года с учётом регистрации по месту пребывания)", "en": "Net migration (Rosstat; from 2011 including registrations at the place of stay)" }, "values": { "1990": 275.0, "1991": 136.1, "1992": 266.2, "1993": 526.3, "1994": 978.0, "1995": 653.7, "1996": 513.5, "1997": 514.1, "1998": 428.8, "1999": 269.5, "2000": 362.6, "2001": 278.5, "2002": 230.8, "2003": 258.5, "2004": 260.4, "2005": 282.1, "2006": 313.2, "2007": 355.1, "2008": 351.7, "2009": 345.2, "2010": 271.5, "2011": 320.1, "2012": 295.0, "2013": 295.8, "2014": 300.0, "2015": 245.4, "2016": 262.0, "2017": 211.8, "2018": 124.9, "2019": 285.1, "2020": 124.5, "2021": 429.9, "2022": 61.9, "2023": 203.6, "2024": 568.5 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Popul%20components_1990+.xlsx", "definition": "Migration growth (registered arrivals minus departures) in the calendar year, thousand, from 'Компоненты изменения общей численности населения' (updated 25.04.2025; 2004-2010 recalculated after the 2010 census). From 2011 long-term registrations at the place of stay (9 months or more) are counted, which raised the numbers. 2014 (empty there) from 'Общие итоги миграции населения' (Itog_migr_1990-2023.xlsx)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2009", "en": "Rosstat 2009" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2009), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (2009), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2010": 270.7, "2011": 283.1, "2012": 298.8, "2013": 313.7, "2014": 326.0, "2015": 338.6, "2016": 351.1, "2017": 361.6, "2018": 370.2, "2019": 378.5, "2020": 383.4, "2021": 390.8, "2022": 394.8, "2023": 397.3, "2024": 403.6, "2025": 404.3, "2026": 405.6, "2027": 408.4, "2028": 409.8, "2029": 412.6, "2030": 414.5 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20091205094408/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2010", "en": "Rosstat 2010" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2010), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (2010), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2010", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2011": 271.9, "2012": 287.6, "2013": 299.6, "2014": 310.8, "2015": 316.7, "2016": 322.5, "2017": 329.0, "2018": 338.7, "2019": 345.5, "2020": 351.7, "2021": 357.4, "2022": 364.3, "2023": 369.0, "2024": 375.1, "2025": 379.8, "2026": 382.5, "2027": 386.1, "2028": 389.9, "2029": 392.9, "2030": 394.6 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20100501184224/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2013", "en": "Rosstat 2013" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2013), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (2013), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2013", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2012": 302.8, "2013": 325.4, "2014": 325.6, "2015": 325.6, "2016": 326.2, "2017": 325.9, "2018": 326.6, "2019": 326.5, "2020": 327.3, "2021": 328.4, "2022": 329.8, "2023": 331.4, "2024": 332.9, "2025": 334.3, "2026": 335.9, "2027": 337.4, "2028": 338.9, "2029": 339.9, "2030": 340.8 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20130224113657/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2014", "en": "Rosstat 2014" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2014), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (2014), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-08-26", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2015": 324.8, "2016": 334.6, "2017": 342.0, "2018": 348.1, "2019": 353.3, "2020": 357.8, "2021": 361.8, "2022": 365.3, "2023": 368.4, "2024": 371.4, "2025": 374.1, "2026": 376.6, "2027": 378.9, "2028": 381.1, "2029": 383.0, "2030": 385.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20140929065158/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2015", "en": "Rosstat 2015" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2015), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (2015), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-02-06", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2016": 295.0, "2017": 304.0, "2018": 311.1, "2019": 316.8, "2020": 321.9, "2021": 326.0, "2022": 329.8, "2023": 333.1, "2024": 336.2, "2025": 338.9, "2026": 341.5, "2027": 343.9, "2028": 346.0, "2029": 348.0, "2030": 350.1 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20150316202445/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2016", "en": "Rosstat 2016" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2016), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (2016), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-04-15", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2017": 293.7, "2018": 300.0, "2019": 305.6, "2020": 310.0, "2021": 314.1, "2022": 317.7, "2023": 321.0, "2024": 323.8, "2025": 326.5, "2026": 328.9, "2027": 331.2, "2028": 333.3, "2029": 335.4, "2030": 337.4 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20160717081819/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2017", "en": "Rosstat 2017" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2017), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (2017), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-04-19", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2018": 299.7, "2019": 297.1, "2020": 294.9, "2021": 293.0, "2022": 291.3, "2023": 289.8, "2024": 288.5, "2025": 287.4, "2026": 286.5, "2027": 285.8, "2028": 285.2, "2029": 284.8, "2030": 284.6, "2031": 284.5, "2032": 284.5, "2033": 284.9, "2034": 285.1, "2035": 285.4 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20170806183226/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат февр. 2018", "en": "Rosstat Feb 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (февраль 2018), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (February 2018), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-12-22", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2018": 225.1, "2019": 240.0, "2020": 252.9, "2021": 263.0, "2022": 270.0, "2023": 274.9, "2024": 278.9, "2025": 282.5, "2026": 285.5, "2027": 288.0, "2028": 289.9, "2029": 291.6, "2030": 293.0, "2031": 294.5, "2032": 295.6, "2033": 296.5, "2034": 297.5, "2035": 298.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20180404082202/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат окт. 2018", "en": "Rosstat Oct 2018" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (октябрь 2018), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (October 2018), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-10-03", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2018": 145.4, "2019": 208.4, "2020": 213.5, "2021": 220.1, "2022": 226.8, "2023": 233.5, "2024": 239.2, "2025": 244.9, "2026": 250.7, "2027": 256.2, "2028": 261.4, "2029": 266.0, "2030": 270.4, "2031": 274.0, "2032": 277.4, "2033": 279.6, "2034": 281.2, "2035": 281.6 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20181105073526/http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/progn1.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2019", "en": "Rosstat 2019" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2019), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (2019), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-28", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2020": 265.196, "2021": 261.586, "2022": 258.917, "2023": 256.739, "2024": 254.911, "2025": 253.416, "2026": 254.505, "2027": 255.533, "2028": 256.672, "2029": 257.443, "2030": 258.525, "2031": 259.521, "2032": 260.53, "2033": 261.377, "2034": 262.44, "2035": 263.477 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/prognoz35.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "Росстат 2023", "en": "Rosstat 2023" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Росстата (2023), средний вариант: миграционный прирост", "en": "Rosstat projection (2023), medium variant: net migration (migration growth)" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-10-10", "variant": "средний вариант прогноза / medium variant", "values": { "2023": 233.0, "2024": 227.2, "2025": 220.7, "2026": 215.7, "2027": 212.1, "2028": 212.2, "2029": 212.4, "2030": 212.7, "2031": 214.6, "2032": 214.9, "2033": 215.2, "2034": 215.5, "2035": 215.9, "2036": 216.4, "2037": 216.8, "2038": 217.3, "2039": 217.9, "2040": 218.6, "2041": 219.1, "2042": 219.7, "2043": 220.4, "2044": 221.2, "2045": 221.8 }, "src": "https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Progn_1.xls" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2035 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=net_migration,migrant_share&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Editions covered (13): Rosstat's projection as shown in the Demographic Yearbook of Russia 2007 (population and TFR, medium variant) and 2008 (births, medium variant); the gks.ru tables of December 2009, spring 2010, winter 2012/13, 26.08.2014, 06.02.2015, 2016 (15.04/27.05), 2017 (19.04/27.06/24.07), 22.12.2017/22.02.2018, 03.10.2018; the bulletin to 2035 (28.12.2019) and the projection to 2045 (10.10.2023 medium, 29.12.2023 low and high). Earlier editions (2005-2006) and any 2011 or 2013-base edition were not found in Rosstat's files or their Internet Archive copies; no edition was published between December 2019 and October 2023 or after December 2023 (the projection page still shows the 29.12.2023 files; a new projection methodology was approved by Rosstat order No. 543 of 30.09.2025).", "Territory: editions up to August 2014 project Russia without Crimea and Sevastopol; from February 2015 they include them, as do Rosstat's actual series (births from 2014, population from 1 January 2015). Population of the pre-2015 editions is therefore compared with rus_rosstat_population_excl_crimea (a difference computed here from Rosstat's regional rows). Births, TFR and migration are not split: Crimea adds about 1.4% to births and little to migration. No edition and no actual series includes the four regions annexed in 2022 (DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson); the 2023 edition says so explicitly. The annexations are not recognised internationally; the series follow Rosstat's definitions and are not an endorsement of them.", "Census revision: the 2020 census (held in October 2021) raised the population estimate for 1 January 2022 by 1.42 million (to 146,980.1 thousand); Rosstat recalculated 1 January 2012-2022 accordingly but not the births, deaths and migration of those years. Population projections made before 2022 started from the lower pre-census estimates (rus_rosstat_population_pre_vpn2020), so part of their difference from today's estimates is the census revision, not the course of births, deaths or migration.", "War and data: from 2022 the actual series exclude the four annexed regions, while moves from them into the rest of Russia are counted as migration (2023: 93.7 thousand of the 203.6 thousand migration growth came from 'moves within Russia'). Rosstat suspended publication of most demographic statistics in 2025: births and population are available to 2024 (births 2024 operational) and to 1 January 2025; nothing official for 2025 was found.", "Variants: the gks.ru and rosstat.gov.ru tables give low, medium and high variants side by side; where Rosstat first posted only the medium variant (2016, 2017, December 2017, October 2023) the later three-variant file is used and its medium figures were checked to be identical. The 2007 and 2008 yearbook tables show one series, the medium variant (inferred for 2007 from the structure of the section, stated for 2008). Rosstat's earlier TFR, births and population projections for 2018-2023 editions also appear in the demography case of pipeline/demography (rus_tfr, rus_births); this file adds the editions from 2007 to 2015 and population and migration.", "Archive copies: the gks.ru pages and the 2019 bulletin are cited by their Internet Archive captures (source_url; archive_of gives the original address). Rosstat's live files are cited directly; all files were downloaded on 2026-10-04 and are kept in private/research-cache/natproj_war/rus/." ] }, { "id": "ukr_tfr", "iso3": "UKR", "section": "demography", "metric": "tfr", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "ребёнка на женщину", "en": "children per woman", "dec": 2 }, "headline": { "ru": "Украина: прогноз ИДСД 2006 года (низкий) ждал 0,89 ребёнка на женщину на 2021 год — вышло 1,16", "en": "Ukraine: the IDSS 2006 (low) projection expected fertility of 0.89 for 2021; the outcome was 1.16" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Украина: рождаемость — прогноз 2006 года и факт", "en": "Ukraine: fertility — the 2006 projection vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Украина · рождаемость", "en": "Ukraine · fertility" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза Института демографии НАН Украины совместно с Госкомстатом (2006; варианты одного прогноза) сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 2 из 3, выше — в 1. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз ИДСД 2006 года (низкий): ждал на 2021 год 0,89 ребёнка на женщину, вышло 1,16 (+30,8%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of the Ptoukha Institute of Demography with the State Statistics Committee (2006; variants of one projection) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 2 of 3, above in 1. The largest miss: IDSS 2006 (low) expected 0.89 for 2021; the outcome was 1.16 (+30.8%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости (Госстат; с 2014 года без Крыма и оккупированных районов Донбасса)", "en": "Total fertility rate (Derzhstat; from 2014 without Crimea and the occupied parts of Donbas)" }, "values": { "1990": 1.85, "1991": 1.776, "1992": 1.674, "1993": 1.562, "1994": 1.468, "1995": 1.398, "1996": 1.335, "1997": 1.272, "1998": 1.211, "1999": 1.127, "2000": 1.116, "2001": 1.078, "2002": 1.095, "2003": 1.147, "2004": 1.192, "2005": 1.211, "2006": 1.254, "2007": 1.317, "2008": 1.39, "2009": 1.453, "2010": 1.445, "2011": 1.459, "2012": 1.531, "2013": 1.506, "2014": 1.498, "2015": 1.506, "2016": 1.466, "2017": 1.374, "2018": 1.301, "2019": 1.228, "2020": 1.217, "2021": 1.16 }, "src": "https://data.gov.ua/dataset/8ce892f8-a4c4-4c17-bdcf-b0537e2d2de4/resource/540b34ee-c9ac-47c8-9a9f-6373ef611cab/download/dataset_default_integration_sssu_df_population_birth_latest.json", "definition": "Total fertility rate (indicator PNMI_3341), 1990-2021; from 2014 computed without Crimea, Sevastopol and the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (from 2015 without the data of those oblasts' occupied parts)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ИДСД 2006 (низкий)", "en": "IDSS 2006 (low)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Института демографии НАН Украины 2006 (с Госкомстатом), низкий вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Ptoukha Institute projection 2006 (with the State Statistics Committee), low variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "Low assumption / низкий вариант", "values": { "2006": 1.252, "2007": 1.281, "2008": 1.257, "2009": 1.236, "2010": 1.217, "2011": 1.17, "2012": 1.128, "2013": 1.097, "2014": 1.071, "2015": 1.044, "2016": 1.011, "2017": 0.992, "2018": 0.952, "2019": 0.931, "2020": 0.913, "2021": 0.887, "2022": 0.909, "2023": 0.9, "2024": 0.898, "2025": 0.904, "2026": 0.899, "2027": 0.901, "2028": 0.901, "2029": 0.9, "2030": 0.901, "2031": 0.901, "2032": 0.901, "2033": 0.901, "2034": 0.901, "2035": 0.901, "2036": 0.901, "2037": 0.901, "2038": 0.901, "2039": 0.901, "2040": 0.901, "2041": 0.901, "2042": 0.901, "2043": 0.901, "2044": 0.901, "2045": 0.901, "2046": 0.901, "2047": 0.901, "2048": 0.901, "2049": 0.901, "2050": 0.901 }, "src": "https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/Population%20Projection%202006%20revision.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "ИДСД 2006 (средний)", "en": "IDSS 2006 (medium)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Института демографии НАН Украины 2006 (с Госкомстатом), средний вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Ptoukha Institute projection 2006 (with the State Statistics Committee), medium variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "Medium assumption / средний вариант", "values": { "2006": 1.28, "2007": 1.31, "2008": 1.33, "2009": 1.316, "2010": 1.295, "2011": 1.26, "2012": 1.269, "2013": 1.277, "2014": 1.295, "2015": 1.33, "2016": 1.342, "2017": 1.366, "2018": 1.401, "2019": 1.419, "2020": 1.436, "2021": 1.444, "2022": 1.46, "2023": 1.475, "2024": 1.49, "2025": 1.5, "2026": 1.517, "2027": 1.52, "2028": 1.508, "2029": 1.496, "2030": 1.483, "2031": 1.488, "2032": 1.497, "2033": 1.499, "2034": 1.498, "2035": 1.5, "2036": 1.504, "2037": 1.503, "2038": 1.497, "2039": 1.49, "2040": 1.494, "2041": 1.501, "2042": 1.501, "2043": 1.498, "2044": 1.495, "2045": 1.499, "2046": 1.502, "2047": 1.499, "2048": 1.494, "2049": 1.494, "2050": 1.5 }, "src": "https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/Population%20Projection%202006%20revision.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "ИДСД 2006 (высокий)", "en": "IDSS 2006 (high)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Института демографии НАН Украины 2006 (с Госкомстатом), высокий вариант: суммарный коэффициент рождаемости", "en": "Ptoukha Institute projection 2006 (with the State Statistics Committee), high variant: total fertility rate" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "High assumption / высокий вариант", "values": { "2006": 1.329, "2007": 1.36, "2008": 1.377, "2009": 1.386, "2010": 1.399, "2011": 1.412, "2012": 1.4, "2013": 1.41, "2014": 1.42, "2015": 1.444, "2016": 1.45, "2017": 1.484, "2018": 1.502, "2019": 1.519, "2020": 1.549, "2021": 1.579, "2022": 1.61, "2023": 1.64, "2024": 1.669, "2025": 1.699, "2026": 1.722, "2027": 1.744, "2028": 1.761, "2029": 1.778, "2030": 1.789, "2031": 1.767, "2032": 1.764, "2033": 1.771, "2034": 1.78, "2035": 1.773, "2036": 1.768, "2037": 1.77, "2038": 1.775, "2039": 1.774, "2040": 1.771, "2041": 1.77, "2042": 1.773, "2043": 1.773, "2044": 1.772, "2045": 1.771, "2046": 1.772, "2047": 1.773, "2048": 1.772, "2049": 1.772, "2050": 1.772 }, "src": "https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/Population%20Projection%202006%20revision.rar" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2030 ], "view": "c=UKR&i=tfr,births&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "The State Statistics Service (Derzhstat) publishes no population projections; none were found in its archives or its open-data exports. Official projections found: (1) the 2006 'Complex demographic projection of Ukraine to 2050', made by the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences jointly with the State Statistics Committee, UNFPA and the Ukrainian Centre for Social Reforms; (2) the scenarios in the Cabinet of Ministers' Strategy of demographic development to 2040 (order No. 922-р of 30.09.2024), computed by the same Institute (renamed the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Problems). Neither is a projection of the statistics office.", "Not included: the Institute's later national revisions of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2020 (Ukraine and the government-controlled area; workbooks at https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/nation_pop_proj) and its July-2023 operational estimate to 2035 (Ukraine in 1991 borders, https://idss.org.ua/arhiv/Ukr1991s1%202023%202035.xls): they are research publications, and no document adopting them by the government was found. ukr_build.py parses them (INCLUDE_UNOFFICIAL = True) if the owner decides to show them, labelled as the Institute's.", "Territory: projections made before 2014 cover Ukraine with Crimea. Derzhstat's series exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2014 (births, TFR, migration) or 1 January 2015 (population), and births, deaths and migration also exclude the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts from 2014, while the population still counts them. The actual series are therefore split at 2013/2014 so that the projections are compared with the whole country only up to 2013 (flows) and 1 January 2014 (population); TFR, a rate, is kept continuous with this caveat.", "War: Derzhstat has published no population, births or migration figures since 2021 (martial-law law on reporting); the last population estimate is for 1 January 2022. The Strategy's 'expected' figures for 2024 (TFR 0.9, net migration -340 thousand, population 31.1 million) are estimates of the Institute, not measurements; the Ministry of Justice's birth registrations for 2022-2024 were found only in press reports. No projection here can yet be checked against measured post-2021 data.", "Concepts: the Institute's projections start from Derzhstat's permanent ('постійне') population; the actual population series is the permanent population too. Values are thousands (population on 1 January), TFR per woman." ] }, { "id": "ukr_population", "iso3": "UKR", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Украина: прогноз ИДСД 2006 года (низкий) ждал население 43,22 млн на 2014 год — вышло 45,25 млн", "en": "Ukraine: the IDSS 2006 (low) projection expected a population of 43.22M for 2014; the outcome was 45.25M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Украина: население — прогноз 2006 года и факт до 2014 года", "en": "Ukraine: population — the 2006 projection vs actual to 2014" }, "short": { "ru": "Украина · население", "en": "Ukraine · population" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза Института демографии НАН Украины совместно с Госкомстатом (2006; варианты одного прогноза) сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 0 из 3, выше — в 3. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз ИДСД 2006 года (низкий): ждал на 2014 год 43,22 млн, вышло 45,25 млн (+4,7%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of the Ptoukha Institute of Demography with the State Statistics Committee (2006; variants of one projection) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 0 of 3, above in 3. The largest miss: IDSS 2006 (low) expected 43.22M for 2014; the outcome was 45.25M (+4.7%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Постоянное население на 1 января (Госстат; вся территория — до 2014 года)", "en": "Permanent population on 1 January (Derzhstat; whole territory, to 2014)" }, "values": { "1990": 51556.5, "1991": 51623.5, "1992": 51708.2, "1993": 51870.4, "1994": 51715.4, "1995": 51300.4, "1996": 50874.1, "1997": 50400.0, "1998": 49973.5, "1999": 49544.8, "2000": 49114.9, "2001": 48663.6, "2002": 48240.9, "2003": 47823.1, "2004": 47442.1, "2005": 47100.5, "2006": 46749.2, "2007": 46465.7, "2008": 46192.3, "2009": 45963.4, "2010": 45782.6, "2011": 45598.2, "2012": 45453.3, "2013": 45372.7, "2014": 45245.9 }, "src": "https://data.gov.ua/dataset/7b2cffb7-28f9-488b-85c6-fe364a42adde/resource/580e6a08-69ec-43e1-8bea-f48c4a13f1f5/download/dataset_default_integration_sssu_df_population_structure_latest.json", "definition": "Permanent population ('постійне населення', indicator PNMI_02) on 1 January, thousand, 1990-2014: the whole territory of Ukraine including Crimea and Sevastopol (1 January 2014 is the last date before the occupation)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ИДСД 2006 (низкий)", "en": "IDSS 2006 (low)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Института демографии НАН Украины 2006 (с Госкомстатом), низкий вариант: численность постоянного населения на 1 января", "en": "Ptoukha Institute projection 2006 (with the State Statistics Committee), low variant: resident population on 1 January" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "Low fertility – Low life expectancy – Low net migration / низкий вариант", "values": { "2007": 46371.4, "2008": 45985.7, "2009": 45574.5, "2010": 45143.1, "2011": 44690.1, "2012": 44219.5, "2013": 43727.7, "2014": 43222.8, "2015": 42718.7, "2016": 42213.3, "2017": 41705.8, "2018": 41197.6, "2019": 40684.9, "2020": 40172.2, "2021": 39653.6, "2022": 39127.5, "2023": 38605.3, "2024": 38080.2, "2025": 37554.2, "2026": 37031.4, "2027": 36510.0, "2028": 35992.5, "2029": 35477.3, "2030": 34964.2, "2031": 34454.7, "2032": 33951.4, "2033": 33453.8, "2034": 32960.6, "2035": 32471.8, "2036": 31986.4, "2037": 31503.7, "2038": 31022.5, "2039": 30542.1, "2040": 30062.7, "2041": 29583.2, "2042": 29105.0, "2043": 28627.5, "2044": 28149.1, "2045": 27669.6, "2046": 27190.2, "2047": 26710.4, "2048": 26232.5, "2049": 25756.6, "2050": 25283.1, "2051": 24812.3 }, "src": "https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/Population%20Projection%202006%20revision.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "ИДСД 2006 (средний)", "en": "IDSS 2006 (medium)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Института демографии НАН Украины 2006 (с Госкомстатом), средний вариант: численность постоянного населения на 1 января", "en": "Ptoukha Institute projection 2006 (with the State Statistics Committee), medium variant: resident population on 1 January" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "Medium fertility – Medium life expectancy – Medium net migration / средний вариант", "values": { "2006": 46749.2, "2007": 46397.7, "2008": 46068.7, "2009": 45760.1, "2010": 45454.4, "2011": 45154.0, "2012": 44853.5, "2013": 44561.3, "2014": 44279.9, "2015": 44007.5, "2016": 43750.3, "2017": 43501.6, "2018": 43260.4, "2019": 43032.4, "2020": 42811.5, "2021": 42597.8, "2022": 42384.6, "2023": 42176.6, "2024": 41971.7, "2025": 41769.5, "2026": 41569.3, "2027": 41372.1, "2028": 41171.5, "2029": 40967.7, "2030": 40754.9, "2031": 40540.2, "2032": 40326.3, "2033": 40117.1, "2034": 39905.3, "2035": 39695.6, "2036": 39484.4, "2037": 39273.8, "2038": 39060.8, "2039": 38845.8, "2040": 38624.9, "2041": 38401.9, "2042": 38176.5, "2043": 37948.2, "2044": 37716.4, "2045": 37481.3, "2046": 37245.2, "2047": 37007.4, "2048": 36767.9, "2049": 36524.9, "2050": 36280.8, "2051": 36036.0 }, "src": "https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/Population%20Projection%202006%20revision.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "ИДСД 2006 (высокий)", "en": "IDSS 2006 (high)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Института демографии НАН Украины 2006 (с Госкомстатом), высокий вариант: численность постоянного населения на 1 января", "en": "Ptoukha Institute projection 2006 (with the State Statistics Committee), high variant: resident population on 1 January" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "High fertility – High life expectancy – High net migration / высокий вариант", "values": { "2007": 46426.4, "2008": 46128.3, "2009": 45866.8, "2010": 45626.8, "2011": 45413.8, "2012": 45219.9, "2013": 45030.6, "2014": 44862.0, "2015": 44710.6, "2016": 44567.6, "2017": 44430.4, "2018": 44310.7, "2019": 44203.8, "2020": 44099.6, "2021": 44003.3, "2022": 43920.1, "2023": 43850.0, "2024": 43784.1, "2025": 43722.0, "2026": 43664.6, "2027": 43608.7, "2028": 43555.7, "2029": 43505.7, "2030": 43454.3, "2031": 43406.2, "2032": 43348.7, "2033": 43289.2, "2034": 43229.3, "2035": 43174.6, "2036": 43119.4, "2037": 43064.0, "2038": 43011.6, "2039": 42962.8, "2040": 42912.5, "2041": 42860.4, "2042": 42808.8, "2043": 42758.2, "2044": 42706.6, "2045": 42652.9, "2046": 42599.1, "2047": 42544.9, "2048": 42486.0, "2049": 42420.8, "2050": 42351.0, "2051": 42275.7 }, "src": "https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/Population%20Projection%202006%20revision.rar" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2030 ], "view": "c=UKR&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "The State Statistics Service (Derzhstat) publishes no population projections; none were found in its archives or its open-data exports. Official projections found: (1) the 2006 'Complex demographic projection of Ukraine to 2050', made by the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences jointly with the State Statistics Committee, UNFPA and the Ukrainian Centre for Social Reforms; (2) the scenarios in the Cabinet of Ministers' Strategy of demographic development to 2040 (order No. 922-р of 30.09.2024), computed by the same Institute (renamed the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Problems). Neither is a projection of the statistics office.", "Not included: the Institute's later national revisions of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2020 (Ukraine and the government-controlled area; workbooks at https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/nation_pop_proj) and its July-2023 operational estimate to 2035 (Ukraine in 1991 borders, https://idss.org.ua/arhiv/Ukr1991s1%202023%202035.xls): they are research publications, and no document adopting them by the government was found. ukr_build.py parses them (INCLUDE_UNOFFICIAL = True) if the owner decides to show them, labelled as the Institute's.", "Territory: projections made before 2014 cover Ukraine with Crimea. Derzhstat's series exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2014 (births, TFR, migration) or 1 January 2015 (population), and births, deaths and migration also exclude the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts from 2014, while the population still counts them. The actual series are therefore split at 2013/2014 so that the projections are compared with the whole country only up to 2013 (flows) and 1 January 2014 (population); TFR, a rate, is kept continuous with this caveat.", "War: Derzhstat has published no population, births or migration figures since 2021 (martial-law law on reporting); the last population estimate is for 1 January 2022. The Strategy's 'expected' figures for 2024 (TFR 0.9, net migration -340 thousand, population 31.1 million) are estimates of the Institute, not measurements; the Ministry of Justice's birth registrations for 2022-2024 were found only in press reports. No projection here can yet be checked against measured post-2021 data.", "Concepts: the Institute's projections start from Derzhstat's permanent ('постійне') population; the actual population series is the permanent population too. Values are thousands (population on 1 January), TFR per woman." ] }, { "id": "ukr_births", "iso3": "UKR", "section": "demography", "metric": "births", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. рождений в год", "en": "thousand births a year", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Украина: прогноз ИДСД 2006 года (низкий) ждал рождений 366 тыс. на 2013 год — вышло 504 тыс.", "en": "Ukraine: the IDSS 2006 (low) projection expected births of 366k for 2013; the outcome was 504k" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "Украина: рождения — прогноз 2006 года и факт до 2013 года", "en": "Ukraine: births — the 2006 projection vs actual to 2013" }, "short": { "ru": "Украина · рождения", "en": "Ukraine · births" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза Института демографии НАН Украины совместно с Госкомстатом (2006; варианты одного прогноза) сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 0 из 3, выше — в 3. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз ИДСД 2006 года (низкий): ждал на 2013 год 366 тыс., вышло 504 тыс. (+37,5%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of the Ptoukha Institute of Demography with the State Statistics Committee (2006; variants of one projection) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 0 of 3, above in 3. The largest miss: IDSS 2006 (low) expected 366k for 2013; the outcome was 504k (+37.5%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Живорождения (Госстат; вся территория — до 2013 года)", "en": "Live births (Derzhstat; whole territory, to 2013)" }, "values": { "1990": 657.202, "1991": 630.813, "1992": 596.785, "1993": 557.467, "1994": 521.545, "1995": 492.861, "1996": 467.211, "1997": 442.581, "1998": 419.238, "1999": 389.208, "2000": 385.126, "2001": 376.478, "2002": 390.688, "2003": 408.589, "2004": 427.259, "2005": 426.086, "2006": 460.368, "2007": 472.657, "2008": 510.589, "2009": 512.525, "2010": 497.689, "2011": 502.595, "2012": 520.705, "2013": 503.657 }, "src": "https://data.gov.ua/dataset/8ce892f8-a4c4-4c17-bdcf-b0537e2d2de4/resource/540b34ee-c9ac-47c8-9a9f-6373ef611cab/download/dataset_default_integration_sssu_df_population_birth_latest.json", "definition": "Live births in the calendar year (indicator PNMI_17), thousand, whole territory of Ukraine, 1990-2013." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ИДСД 2006 (низкий)", "en": "IDSS 2006 (low)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Института демографии НАН Украины 2006 (с Госкомстатом), низкий вариант: число живорождений", "en": "Ptoukha Institute projection 2006 (with the State Statistics Committee), low variant: live births" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "Low fertility – Low life expectancy – Low net migration / низкий вариант", "values": { "2006": 443.832, "2007": 454.599, "2008": 444.774, "2009": 434.429, "2010": 423.206, "2011": 401.585, "2012": 380.397, "2013": 366.294, "2014": 348.991, "2015": 331.26, "2016": 311.144, "2017": 294.976, "2018": 273.54, "2019": 258.088, "2020": 242.427, "2021": 226.281, "2022": 222.196, "2023": 211.494, "2024": 203.757, "2025": 198.953, "2026": 192.78, "2027": 189.511, "2028": 186.904, "2029": 184.648, "2030": 183.581, "2031": 182.398, "2032": 181.253, "2033": 179.957, "2034": 178.067, "2035": 175.736, "2036": 172.736, "2037": 169.049, "2038": 164.778, "2039": 159.927, "2040": 154.606, "2041": 148.932, "2042": 143.025, "2043": 137.011, "2044": 131.003, "2045": 125.113, "2046": 119.453, "2047": 114.084, "2048": 109.077, "2049": 104.47, "2050": 100.294 }, "src": "https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/Population%20Projection%202006%20revision.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "ИДСД 2006 (средний)", "en": "IDSS 2006 (medium)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Института демографии НАН Украины 2006 (с Госкомстатом), средний вариант: число живорождений", "en": "Ptoukha Institute projection 2006 (with the State Statistics Committee), medium variant: live births" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "Medium fertility – Medium life expectancy – Medium net migration / средний вариант", "values": { "2006": 452.056, "2007": 463.177, "2008": 469.734, "2009": 463.392, "2010": 453.003, "2011": 436.208, "2012": 432.951, "2013": 432.512, "2014": 430.047, "2015": 432.472, "2016": 424.952, "2017": 420.368, "2018": 418.674, "2019": 409.999, "2020": 400.928, "2021": 388.974, "2022": 382.123, "2023": 375.872, "2024": 370.359, "2025": 363.573, "2026": 360.319, "2027": 353.521, "2028": 344.257, "2029": 336.823, "2030": 331.233, "2031": 331.217, "2032": 332.79, "2033": 333.399, "2034": 333.479, "2035": 334.466, "2036": 335.986, "2037": 336.116, "2038": 334.817, "2039": 332.615, "2040": 332.644, "2041": 332.895, "2042": 331.004, "2043": 327.626, "2044": 324.026, "2045": 321.836, "2046": 318.937, "2047": 314.296, "2048": 308.68, "2049": 304.554, "2050": 301.647 }, "src": "https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/Population%20Projection%202006%20revision.rar" }, { "label": { "ru": "ИДСД 2006 (высокий)", "en": "IDSS 2006 (high)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз Института демографии НАН Украины 2006 (с Госкомстатом), высокий вариант: число живорождений", "en": "Ptoukha Institute projection 2006 (with the State Statistics Committee), high variant: live births" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-11", "variant": "High fertility – High life expectancy – High net migration / высокий вариант", "values": { "2006": 469.236, "2007": 480.752, "2008": 487.585, "2009": 490.193, "2010": 492.904, "2011": 493.944, "2012": 484.398, "2013": 485.22, "2014": 480.855, "2015": 479.431, "2016": 470.825, "2017": 470.771, "2018": 462.928, "2019": 454.162, "2020": 449.685, "2021": 444.634, "2022": 439.302, "2023": 434.014, "2024": 429.122, "2025": 424.928, "2026": 419.67, "2027": 415.887, "2028": 412.401, "2029": 410.944, "2030": 410.173, "2031": 404.151, "2032": 404.533, "2033": 408.627, "2034": 414.313, "2035": 417.377, "2036": 421.114, "2037": 426.085, "2038": 431.575, "2039": 435.009, "2040": 437.046, "2041": 438.632, "2042": 440.038, "2043": 440.147, "2044": 439.0, "2045": 437.148, "2046": 435.112, "2047": 432.582, "2048": 429.501, "2049": 426.065, "2050": 422.669 }, "src": "https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/Population%20Projection%202006%20revision.rar" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2030 ], "view": "c=UKR&i=births,tfr&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "The State Statistics Service (Derzhstat) publishes no population projections; none were found in its archives or its open-data exports. Official projections found: (1) the 2006 'Complex demographic projection of Ukraine to 2050', made by the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences jointly with the State Statistics Committee, UNFPA and the Ukrainian Centre for Social Reforms; (2) the scenarios in the Cabinet of Ministers' Strategy of demographic development to 2040 (order No. 922-р of 30.09.2024), computed by the same Institute (renamed the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Problems). Neither is a projection of the statistics office.", "Not included: the Institute's later national revisions of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2020 (Ukraine and the government-controlled area; workbooks at https://idss.org.ua/forecasts/nation_pop_proj) and its July-2023 operational estimate to 2035 (Ukraine in 1991 borders, https://idss.org.ua/arhiv/Ukr1991s1%202023%202035.xls): they are research publications, and no document adopting them by the government was found. ukr_build.py parses them (INCLUDE_UNOFFICIAL = True) if the owner decides to show them, labelled as the Institute's.", "Territory: projections made before 2014 cover Ukraine with Crimea. Derzhstat's series exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2014 (births, TFR, migration) or 1 January 2015 (population), and births, deaths and migration also exclude the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts from 2014, while the population still counts them. The actual series are therefore split at 2013/2014 so that the projections are compared with the whole country only up to 2013 (flows) and 1 January 2014 (population); TFR, a rate, is kept continuous with this caveat.", "War: Derzhstat has published no population, births or migration figures since 2021 (martial-law law on reporting); the last population estimate is for 1 January 2022. The Strategy's 'expected' figures for 2024 (TFR 0.9, net migration -340 thousand, population 31.1 million) are estimates of the Institute, not measurements; the Ministry of Justice's birth registrations for 2022-2024 were found only in press reports. No projection here can yet be checked against measured post-2021 data.", "Concepts: the Institute's projections start from Derzhstat's permanent ('постійне') population; the actual population series is the permanent population too. Values are thousands (population on 1 January), TFR per woman." ] }, { "id": "srb_population", "iso3": "SRB", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Сербия: прогноз РЗС 2014 года (средний) ждал население 6,95 млн на 2021 год — вышло 6,83 млн", "en": "Serbia: the RZS 2014 (medium) projection expected a population of 6.95M for 2021; the outcome was 6.83M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Сербия: население — прогноз 2014 года и факт", "en": "Serbia: population — the 2014 projection vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Сербия · население", "en": "Serbia · population" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза Статистического управления Сербии (2014; варианты одного прогноза) сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 3 из 3, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз РЗС 2014 года (средний): ждал на 2021 год 6,95 млн, вышло 6,83 млн (−1,7%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of the Statistical Office of Serbia (2014; variants of one projection) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 3 of 3, above in 0. The largest miss: RZS 2014 (medium) expected 6.95M for 2021; the outcome was 6.83M (−1.7%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Среднегодовая численность (РЗС, без Косова; с 2022 года — по переписи 2022 года)", "en": "Mid-year population (RZS, without Kosovo; from 2022 based on the 2022 census)" }, "values": { "2011": 7236.5, "2012": 7201.5, "2013": 7166.6, "2014": 7131.8, "2015": 7095.4, "2016": 7058.3, "2017": 7020.9, "2018": 6982.6, "2019": 6945.2, "2020": 6899.1, "2021": 6834.3, "2022": 6664.4, "2023": 6623.2, "2024": 6586.5, "2025": 6549.9 }, "src": "https://opendata.stat.gov.rs/data/WcfJsonRestService.Service1.svc/dataset/18010403IND02/3/csv", "definition": "Mid-year (average) population estimate, thousands, 2011-2025, without Kosovo and Metohija (dataset 18010403IND02, 'Midyear population estimates (average)'). 2011-2021 are the estimates based on the 2011 census, not revised after the 2022 census; 2022 onwards are based on the 2022 census (1 October 2022: 6,647,003), which found about 170 thousand fewer people than the old series implied (2021: 6,834.3; 2022: 6,664.4)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "РЗС 2014 (низкий)", "en": "RZS 2014 (low)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз РЗС Сербии 2014 (2011–2041), низкий вариант: численность населения", "en": "RZS Serbia 2014 projection (2011-2041), low variant: population" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2014-01-31", "variant": "low variant (ниска варијанта) / низкий вариант", "values": { "2011": 7234.1, "2016": 7058.0, "2021": 6897.3, "2026": 6773.4, "2031": 6667.0, "2036": 6573.7, "2041": 6522.2 }, "src": "https://pod2.stat.gov.rs/ObjavljenePublikacije/Popis2011/Projekcije%20stanovnistva%202011-2041.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "РЗС 2014 (средний)", "en": "RZS 2014 (medium)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз РЗС Сербии 2014 (2011–2041), средний вариант: численность населения", "en": "RZS Serbia 2014 projection (2011-2041), medium variant: population" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2014-01-31", "variant": "medium variant (средња варијанта) / средний вариант", "values": { "2011": 7234.1, "2016": 7079.9, "2021": 6950.7, "2026": 6867.8, "2031": 6815.0, "2036": 6791.7, "2041": 6830.0 }, "src": "https://pod2.stat.gov.rs/ObjavljenePublikacije/Popis2011/Projekcije%20stanovnistva%202011-2041.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "РЗС 2014 (высокий)", "en": "RZS 2014 (high)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз РЗС Сербии 2014 (2011–2041), высокий вариант: численность населения", "en": "RZS Serbia 2014 projection (2011-2041), high variant: population" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2014-01-31", "variant": "high variant (висока варијанта) / высокий вариант", "values": { "2011": 7234.1, "2016": 7073.5, "2021": 6949.0, "2026": 6880.3, "2031": 6850.6, "2036": 6867.3, "2041": 6973.9 }, "src": "https://pod2.stat.gov.rs/ObjavljenePublikacije/Popis2011/Projekcije%20stanovnistva%202011-2041.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2035 ], "view": "c=SRB&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Editions: 'Population projections of the Republic of Serbia 2011-2041' (RZS, January 2014; five variants, national and regional figures at five-year steps) is stored. The next edition, 'Пројекције становништва Републике Србије 2022-2052' (RZS; infographic October 2024, presentation March 2025, https://popis2022.stat.gov.rs/media/31470/13_projekcije_stanovnistva_2022-2052.pdf), publishes national totals only in charts (medium variant: about 6.2 million in 2032 and 5.2 million in 2052) and its tables in the RZS database at municipal level (table 180204); it is not stored. No national projection made from the 2002 census was found.", "Census break: the estimates for 2011-2021 rest on the 2011 census and were not revised; the 2022 census lowered the level. A projection compared with 2021 is therefore compared with an estimate that the census later showed to be too high.", "All Serbian figures exclude Kosovo and Metohija (not covered by the 2011 and 2022 censuses)." ] }, { "id": "hrv_population", "iso3": "HRV", "section": "demography", "metric": "population", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "тыс. человек", "en": "thousand persons", "dec": 0, "k": true }, "headline": { "ru": "Хорватия: прогноз 2011 года (высокий) ждал население 4,38 млн на 2025 год — вышло 3,88 млн", "en": "Croatia: the DZS 2011 (high) projection expected a population of 4.38M for 2025; the outcome was 3.88M" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Хорватия: население — прогноз 2011 года и факт", "en": "Croatia: population — the 2011 projection vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Хорватия · население", "en": "Croatia · population" }, "note": { "ru": "3 прогноза Статистического бюро Хорватии (2011; варианты одного прогноза) сверены с фактом на последний общий год: факт ниже прогноза в 3 из 3, выше — в 0. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2011 года (высокий): ждал на 2025 год 4,38 млн, вышло 3,88 млн (−11,6%). Факт последних лет ведомство ещё будет уточнять.", "en": "3 projections of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (2011; variants of one projection) checked against the facts at the latest common year: the outcome below the projection in 3 of 3, above in 0. The largest miss: DZS 2011 (high) expected 4.38M for 2025; the outcome was 3.88M (−11.6%). The office will revise the latest facts again." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Население на середину года (DZS, по переписи 2021 года; прогноз — на 1 января)", "en": "Mid-year population (DZS, 2021-census basis; the projection is for 1 January)" }, "values": { "2021": 3879.0, "2022": 3855.6, "2023": 3859.7, "2024": 3866.2, "2025": 3875.0 }, "src": "https://podaci.dzs.hr/media/5cnenmfb/stan-2026-3-1_tablice-eng.xlsx", "definition": "Mid-year population estimate, thousands, 2021-2025, based on the 2021 census (first release STAN-2026-3-1, 'Population estimate of the Republic of Croatia, 2025', 4 September 2026, table 1)." }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "DZS 2011 (низкий)", "en": "DZS 2011 (low)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз DZS Хорватии 2011 (2010–2061), низкий вариант: численность населения", "en": "DZS Croatia 2011 projection (2010-2061), low variant: population" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2011", "variant": "varijanta niskog fertiliteta s niskom migracijom / низкий вариант", "values": { "2010": 4425.2, "2011": 4421.9, "2012": 4417.0, "2013": 4410.3, "2014": 4401.8, "2015": 4391.5, "2016": 4379.4, "2017": 4366.4, "2018": 4352.8, "2019": 4338.5, "2020": 4323.6, "2021": 4308.1, "2022": 4292.2, "2023": 4275.7, "2024": 4258.7, "2025": 4241.4, "2026": 4223.7, "2027": 4205.5, "2028": 4186.7, "2029": 4167.4, "2030": 4147.7, "2031": 4127.5, "2032": 4106.8, "2033": 4085.8, "2034": 4064.3, "2035": 4042.5, "2036": 4020.2, "2037": 3997.6, "2038": 3974.7, "2039": 3951.5, "2040": 3928.0, "2041": 3904.1, "2042": 3880.0, "2043": 3855.5, "2044": 3830.7, "2045": 3805.6, "2046": 3780.3, "2047": 3754.8, "2048": 3729.1, "2049": 3703.2, "2050": 3677.2, "2051": 3651.1, "2052": 3624.9, "2053": 3598.6, "2054": 3572.3, "2055": 3545.9, "2056": 3519.6, "2057": 3493.2, "2058": 3466.9, "2059": 3440.5, "2060": 3414.1, "2061": 3387.8 }, "src": "https://podaci.dzs.hr/media/rrtpfgyn/projekcije_stanovnistva_2010-2061.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "DZS 2011 (средний)", "en": "DZS 2011 (medium)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз DZS Хорватии 2011 (2010–2061), средний вариант: численность населения", "en": "DZS Croatia 2011 projection (2010-2061), medium variant: population" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2011", "variant": "varijanta srednjeg fertiliteta sa srednjom migracijom / средний вариант", "values": { "2010": 4425.2, "2011": 4422.9, "2012": 4419.8, "2013": 4415.8, "2014": 4410.8, "2015": 4404.9, "2016": 4398.0, "2017": 4390.6, "2018": 4382.9, "2019": 4374.7, "2020": 4366.2, "2021": 4357.3, "2022": 4348.2, "2023": 4338.9, "2024": 4329.3, "2025": 4319.5, "2026": 4309.6, "2027": 4299.3, "2028": 4288.6, "2029": 4277.7, "2030": 4266.5, "2031": 4254.9, "2032": 4243.2, "2033": 4231.2, "2034": 4219.1, "2035": 4206.8, "2036": 4194.3, "2037": 4181.7, "2038": 4168.9, "2039": 4155.9, "2040": 4142.7, "2041": 4129.4, "2042": 4115.9, "2043": 4102.2, "2044": 4088.4, "2045": 4074.5, "2046": 4060.4, "2047": 4046.3, "2048": 4032.0, "2049": 4017.8, "2050": 4003.5, "2051": 3989.2, "2052": 3975.0, "2053": 3960.7, "2054": 3946.5, "2055": 3932.4, "2056": 3918.3, "2057": 3904.2, "2058": 3890.3, "2059": 3876.4, "2060": 3862.5, "2061": 3848.8 }, "src": "https://podaci.dzs.hr/media/rrtpfgyn/projekcije_stanovnistva_2010-2061.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "DZS 2011 (высокий)", "en": "DZS 2011 (high)" }, "label_full": { "ru": "Прогноз DZS Хорватии 2011 (2010–2061), высокий вариант: численность населения", "en": "DZS Croatia 2011 projection (2010-2061), high variant: population" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2011", "variant": "varijanta visokog fertiliteta s visokom migracijom / высокий вариант", "values": { "2010": 4425.2, "2011": 4422.3, "2012": 4419.6, "2013": 4416.9, "2014": 4414.2, "2015": 4411.4, "2016": 4408.7, "2017": 4405.9, "2018": 4403.0, "2019": 4400.1, "2020": 4397.1, "2021": 4394.3, "2022": 4391.4, "2023": 4388.7, "2024": 4386.0, "2025": 4383.4, "2026": 4381.0, "2027": 4378.6, "2028": 4376.1, "2029": 4373.7, "2030": 4371.2, "2031": 4368.9, "2032": 4366.5, "2033": 4364.3, "2034": 4362.3, "2035": 4360.4, "2036": 4358.8, "2037": 4357.1, "2038": 4355.4, "2039": 4353.8, "2040": 4352.1, "2041": 4350.5, "2042": 4348.9, "2043": 4347.4, "2044": 4346.1, "2045": 4344.9, "2046": 4343.9, "2047": 4343.1, "2048": 4342.5, "2049": 4342.2, "2050": 4342.2, "2051": 4342.5, "2052": 4343.0, "2053": 4344.0, "2054": 4345.2, "2055": 4346.8, "2056": 4348.7, "2057": 4351.0, "2058": 4353.6, "2059": 4356.5, "2060": 4359.8, "2061": 4363.3 }, "src": "https://podaci.dzs.hr/media/rrtpfgyn/projekcije_stanovnistva_2010-2061.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2035 ], "view": "c=HRV&i=population,net_migration&past=1&from=1990&to=2035", "caveats": [ "Editions: DZS's 'Population projections of the Republic of Croatia 2010-2061' (2011; base 1 January 2010, before the 2011 census) is stored. The publication mentions earlier DZS projections, which were not found online; no later national projection by DZS was found (Eurostat's EUROPOP projections for Croatia are not a national edition).", "The actual series is the 2021-census-based mid-year estimate; DZS's estimates for 2011-2020 on the 2011-census basis were not used. Reference dates differ (projection: 1 January; estimate: mid-year).", "What the gap reflects: the 2011 edition assumed positive net migration; after EU accession in 2013 emigration was large, and the 2021 census found 3.87 million residents against 4.36 million in the medium variant for 2021. The war of 1991-1995 lies before the projection's base." ] }, { "id": "usa_eia_gas", "iso3": "USA", "section": "energy", "metric": "gas", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "трлн куб. футов в год", "en": "trillion cubic feet a year", "dec": 1 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: Минэнерго недооценивало добычу газа — во всех 15 прогнозах на пять лет вперёд", "en": "US: the EIA under-projected gas production in 15 of 15 five-year-ahead projections" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": true, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: добыча газа — прогнозы EIA и факт", "en": "US: natural gas production — EIA projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · добыча газа", "en": "US · gas output" }, "note": { "ru": "15 прогнозов Минэнерго США на пять лет вперёд (2005–2019) недооценивали добычу газа: факт выше прогноза во всех 15, обычно на 18%. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2010 года: ждал на 2015 год 19,3 трлн куб. футов в год, вышло 27,1.", "en": "Five-year-ahead projections of 15 AEO editions 2005–2019 under-projected gas production: the outcome was above the projection in 15 of 15 cases, median gap +18%. The largest miss: AEO2010 expected 19.3 trillion cubic feet a year for 2015, the outcome was 27.1." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)", "en": "Actual (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)" }, "values": { "1990": 17.8097, "1991": 17.6978, "1992": 17.8399, "1993": 18.0955, "1994": 18.821, "1995": 18.5987, "1996": 18.8541, "1997": 18.9024, "1998": 19.0236, "1999": 18.8322, "2000": 19.182, "2001": 19.6163, "2002": 18.9278, "2003": 19.0985, "2004": 18.5909, "2005": 18.0506, "2006": 18.5036, "2007": 19.266, "2008": 20.1586, "2009": 20.6239, "2010": 21.3155, "2011": 22.9019, "2012": 24.0333, "2013": 24.2055, "2014": 25.8896, "2015": 27.0655, "2016": 26.5921, "2017": 27.3406, "2018": 30.7743, "2019": 33.899, "2020": 33.8111, "2021": 34.5293, "2022": 36.2549, "2023": 37.8033, "2024": 37.7666 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "AEO2005", "en": "AEO2005" }, "year": 2005, "values": { "2003": 19.0692, "2004": 18.9148, "2005": 19.2772, "2006": 19.2431, "2007": 19.4914, "2008": 19.902, "2009": 20.4449, "2010": 20.4213, "2011": 20.9085, "2012": 21.1751, "2013": 21.0738, "2014": 21.1571, "2015": 20.771, "2016": 20.8459, "2017": 21.6259, "2018": 22.0628, "2019": 22.0466, "2020": 21.8909, "2021": 21.7701, "2022": 21.5449, "2023": 21.4064, "2024": 21.6868, "2025": 21.8314 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2008", "en": "AEO2008" }, "year": 2008, "values": { "2006": 18.507, "2007": 18.9998, "2008": 19.1796, "2009": 19.2842, "2010": 19.2928, "2011": 19.2591, "2012": 19.4064, "2013": 19.4123, "2014": 19.3966, "2015": 19.5166, "2016": 19.6392, "2017": 19.6256, "2018": 19.5355, "2019": 19.4097, "2020": 19.6669, "2021": 19.957, "2022": 19.9825, "2023": 19.7956, "2024": 19.7257, "2025": 19.6048, "2026": 19.6983, "2027": 19.6644, "2028": 19.5942, "2029": 19.485, "2030": 19.4357 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2011", "en": "AEO2011" }, "year": 2011, "values": { "2009": 20.955, "2010": 21.2773, "2011": 21.0576, "2012": 21.2741, "2013": 21.7322, "2014": 22.0215, "2015": 22.4316, "2016": 22.4733, "2017": 22.6515, "2018": 22.9179, "2019": 23.2009, "2020": 23.4285, "2021": 23.5333, "2022": 23.703, "2023": 23.8457, "2024": 23.8575, "2025": 23.9758, "2026": 24.0727, "2027": 24.2867, "2028": 24.5689, "2029": 24.8212, "2030": 25.0963, "2031": 25.3609, "2032": 25.5549, "2033": 25.7515, "2034": 25.9958, "2035": 26.3205 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2014", "en": "AEO2014" }, "year": 2014, "values": { "2012": 24.063, "2013": 24.1855, "2014": 24.2789, "2015": 24.6296, "2016": 25.6812, "2017": 26.3789, "2018": 27.2022, "2019": 28.1912, "2020": 29.0895, "2021": 29.7012, "2022": 30.1885, "2023": 30.9243, "2024": 31.4374, "2025": 31.8647, "2026": 32.4651, "2027": 33.0705, "2028": 33.6474, "2029": 34.0869, "2030": 34.4286, "2031": 34.6641, "2032": 35.0405, "2033": 35.3921, "2034": 35.7318, "2035": 36.0931, "2036": 36.3603, "2037": 36.6822, "2038": 37.0409, "2039": 37.3602, "2040": 37.5447 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2017", "en": "AEO2017" }, "year": 2017, "values": { "2015": 27.0324, "2016": 26.5268, "2017": 27.8535, "2018": 29.111, "2019": 30.0738, "2020": 30.7897, "2021": 30.9689, "2022": 31.2527, "2023": 31.7552, "2024": 32.4126, "2025": 33.0568, "2026": 33.6404, "2027": 33.9923, "2028": 34.3193, "2029": 34.647, "2030": 34.9103, "2031": 34.9612, "2032": 35.2468, "2033": 35.4849, "2034": 35.9763, "2035": 36.5249, "2036": 36.7251, "2037": 37.0657, "2038": 37.3511, "2039": 37.5926, "2040": 37.7384, "2041": 37.9684, "2042": 38.1702, "2043": 38.3231, "2044": 38.5902, "2045": 38.8749, "2046": 39.1257, "2047": 39.4158, "2048": 39.626, "2049": 39.8337, "2050": 40.2767 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2021", "en": "AEO2021" }, "year": 2021, "values": { "2020": 33.8907, "2021": 32.3097, "2022": 32.7807, "2023": 34.0221, "2024": 34.9647, "2025": 36.2617, "2026": 36.8852, "2027": 37.0214, "2028": 37.1964, "2029": 37.5444, "2030": 37.8812, "2031": 38.1344, "2032": 38.2985, "2033": 38.469, "2034": 38.6119, "2035": 38.6133, "2036": 38.7742, "2037": 38.9831, "2038": 39.2893, "2039": 39.5859, "2040": 39.9168, "2041": 40.1115, "2042": 40.4877, "2043": 40.9206, "2044": 41.2868, "2045": 41.539, "2046": 41.8043, "2047": 42.0657, "2048": 42.3923, "2049": 42.6588, "2050": 42.9928 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2035 ], "stats": { "n": 15, "above": 15, "median_pct": 18.3, "worst": [ 2010, 2015, 19.28956223, 27.06546 ] }, "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/", "license": "US government work (public domain)" }, { "id": "usa_eia_oil", "iso3": "USA", "section": "energy", "metric": "oil", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "млн баррелей в сутки", "en": "million barrels per day", "dec": 1 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: Минэнерго недооценивало добычу нефти — в 12 из 15 прогнозов на пять лет вперёд", "en": "US: the EIA under-projected oil production in 12 of 15 five-year-ahead projections" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": true, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: добыча нефти — прогнозы EIA и факт", "en": "US: crude oil production — EIA projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · добыча нефти", "en": "US · oil output" }, "note": { "ru": "15 прогнозов Минэнерго США на пять лет вперёд (2005–2019) недооценивали добычу нефти: факт выше прогноза в 12 из 15, обычно на 20%. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2010 года: ждал на 2015 год 5,8 млн баррелей в сутки, вышло 9,4.", "en": "Five-year-ahead projections of 15 AEO editions 2005–2019 under-projected oil production: the outcome was above the projection in 12 of 15 cases, median gap +20%. The largest miss: AEO2010 expected 5.8 million barrels per day for 2015, the outcome was 9.4." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)", "en": "Actual (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)" }, "values": { "1990": 7.35531, "1991": 7.41655, "1992": 7.17112, "1993": 6.84666, "1994": 6.66158, "1995": 6.55964, "1996": 6.46453, "1997": 6.45159, "1998": 6.25183, "1999": 5.88146, "2000": 5.8216, "2001": 5.8014, "2002": 5.74408, "2003": 5.6493, "2004": 5.44097, "2005": 5.18382, "2006": 5.08586, "2007": 5.0739, "2008": 4.99967, "2009": 5.3567, "2010": 5.4844, "2011": 5.67421, "2012": 6.52377, "2013": 7.4954, "2014": 8.78145, "2015": 9.43196, "2016": 8.85005, "2017": 9.35958, "2018": 10.9595, "2019": 12.314, "2020": 11.3229, "2021": 11.3082, "2022": 11.9922, "2023": 12.9345, "2024": 13.2081 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "AEO2005", "en": "AEO2005" }, "year": 2005, "values": { "2003": 5.6497, "2004": 5.5854, "2005": 5.75112, "2006": 6.02732, "2007": 6.08516, "2008": 6.1456, "2009": 6.18418, "2010": 6.02256, "2011": 5.89467, "2012": 5.81621, "2013": 5.70056, "2014": 5.60053, "2015": 5.49453, "2016": 5.35234, "2017": 5.30439, "2018": 5.27379, "2019": 5.24922, "2020": 5.20963, "2021": 5.06582, "2022": 4.94763, "2023": 4.87175, "2024": 4.84111, "2025": 4.72728 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2008", "en": "AEO2008" }, "year": 2008, "values": { "2006": 5.102, "2007": 5.102, "2008": 5.14, "2009": 5.65417, "2010": 5.93036, "2011": 5.93316, "2012": 5.93983, "2013": 6.00566, "2014": 6.04478, "2015": 6.15513, "2016": 6.22663, "2017": 6.26528, "2018": 6.28206, "2019": 6.26045, "2020": 6.22705, "2021": 6.16241, "2022": 6.13793, "2023": 6.09832, "2024": 6.08458, "2025": 6.03786, "2026": 6.0154, "2027": 5.9322, "2028": 5.79072, "2029": 5.6813, "2030": 5.59333 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2011", "en": "AEO2011" }, "year": 2011, "values": { "2009": 5.355, "2010": 5.51, "2011": 5.46015, "2012": 5.37621, "2013": 5.58062, "2014": 5.75972, "2015": 5.81374, "2016": 5.9577, "2017": 6.07574, "2018": 6.10318, "2019": 6.12409, "2020": 6.08062, "2021": 6.07107, "2022": 6.08921, "2023": 6.03218, "2024": 5.94595, "2025": 5.87913, "2026": 5.81681, "2027": 5.79141, "2028": 5.83063, "2029": 5.80893, "2030": 5.81539, "2031": 5.87945, "2032": 6.00606, "2033": 6.05279, "2034": 6.06383, "2035": 5.95261 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2014", "en": "AEO2014" }, "year": 2014, "values": { "2012": 6.494, "2013": 7.722, "2014": 8.5288, "2015": 9.0378, "2016": 9.54178, "2017": 9.5568, "2018": 9.57549, "2019": 9.60825, "2020": 9.55254, "2021": 9.4165, "2022": 9.28882, "2023": 9.19074, "2024": 9.07285, "2025": 9.00418, "2026": 8.83294, "2027": 8.66966, "2028": 8.51592, "2029": 8.38042, "2030": 8.30472, "2031": 8.15954, "2032": 8.07273, "2033": 8.04468, "2034": 7.98459, "2035": 7.87227, "2036": 7.75463, "2037": 7.69949, "2038": 7.55884, "2039": 7.53028, "2040": 7.48017 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2017", "en": "AEO2017" }, "year": 2017, "values": { "2015": 9.415, "2016": 8.74155, "2017": 8.69726, "2018": 9.31594, "2019": 9.68649, "2020": 9.88435, "2021": 10.0351, "2022": 10.1517, "2023": 10.3075, "2024": 10.343, "2025": 10.3792, "2026": 10.5249, "2027": 10.536, "2028": 10.5403, "2029": 10.5478, "2030": 10.5405, "2031": 10.4924, "2032": 10.4225, "2033": 10.2706, "2034": 10.2334, "2035": 10.2342, "2036": 10.2538, "2037": 10.312, "2038": 10.3571, "2039": 10.3557, "2040": 10.341, "2041": 10.3262, "2042": 10.298, "2043": 10.283, "2044": 10.2429, "2045": 10.1821, "2046": 10.1655, "2047": 10.1016, "2048": 10.0161, "2049": 9.91351, "2050": 9.86392 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2021", "en": "AEO2021" }, "year": 2021, "values": { "2020": 11.47, "2021": 11.1662, "2022": 11.6266, "2023": 12.3296, "2024": 12.744, "2025": 13.2315, "2026": 13.498, "2027": 13.5941, "2028": 13.7101, "2029": 13.7186, "2030": 13.769, "2031": 13.7958, "2032": 13.7689, "2033": 13.862, "2034": 13.8834, "2035": 13.7632, "2036": 13.5662, "2037": 13.4517, "2038": 13.349, "2039": 13.2834, "2040": 13.1739, "2041": 13.1189, "2042": 13.1465, "2043": 13.3105, "2044": 13.3513, "2045": 13.224, "2046": 13.2491, "2047": 13.2948, "2048": 13.228, "2049": 13.1593, "2050": 12.8729 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2035 ], "stats": { "n": 15, "above": 12, "median_pct": 20.2, "worst": [ 2010, 2015, 5.774886131, 9.431962 ] }, "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/", "license": "US government work (public domain)" }, { "id": "usa_eia_coal", "iso3": "USA", "section": "energy", "metric": "coal", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "млн коротких тонн в год", "en": "million short tons a year", "dec": 0 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: Минэнерго переоценивало потребление угля — во всех 15 прогнозах на пять лет вперёд", "en": "US: the EIA over-projected coal use in 15 of 15 five-year-ahead projections" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": true, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "США: потребление угля — прогнозы EIA и факт", "en": "US: coal consumption — EIA projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · уголь", "en": "US · coal" }, "note": { "ru": "15 прогнозов Минэнерго США на пять лет вперёд (2005–2019) переоценивали потребление угля: факт ниже прогноза во всех 15, обычно на 29%. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2015 года: ждал на 2020 год 987 млн коротких тонн в год, вышло 477.", "en": "Five-year-ahead projections of 15 AEO editions 2005–2019 over-projected coal use: the outcome was below the projection in 15 of 15 cases, median gap −29%. The largest miss: AEO2015 expected 987 million short tons a year for 2020, the outcome was 477." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)", "en": "Actual (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)" }, "values": { "1990": 904.498, "1991": 899.227, "1992": 907.655, "1993": 944.081, "1994": 951.286, "1995": 962.104, "1996": 1006.32, "1997": 1029.54, "1998": 1037.1, "1999": 1038.65, "2000": 1084.09, "2001": 1060.15, "2002": 1066.35, "2003": 1094.86, "2004": 1107.25, "2005": 1125.98, "2006": 1112.29, "2007": 1128.0, "2008": 1120.55, "2009": 997.478, "2010": 1048.51, "2011": 1002.95, "2012": 889.185, "2013": 924.442, "2014": 917.731, "2015": 798.115, "2016": 731.071, "2017": 716.856, "2018": 688.105, "2019": 586.543, "2020": 476.693, "2021": 545.679, "2022": 515.534, "2023": 425.895, "2024": 411.355 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "AEO2005", "en": "AEO2005" }, "year": 2005, "values": { "2003": 1094.77, "2004": 1101.86, "2005": 1136.61, "2006": 1158.73, "2007": 1189.11, "2008": 1209.97, "2009": 1224.25, "2010": 1229.26, "2011": 1237.05, "2012": 1247.63, "2013": 1254.82, "2014": 1263.73, "2015": 1273.07, "2016": 1283.91, "2017": 1297.78, "2018": 1312.69, "2019": 1331.27, "2020": 1352.41, "2021": 1376.88, "2022": 1406.02, "2023": 1442.42, "2024": 1474.13, "2025": 1508.27 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2008", "en": "AEO2008" }, "year": 2008, "values": { "2006": 1114.15, "2007": 1127.2, "2008": 1126.22, "2009": 1135.46, "2010": 1144.73, "2011": 1181.24, "2012": 1198.73, "2013": 1202.68, "2014": 1213.89, "2015": 1225.43, "2016": 1240.1, "2017": 1261.87, "2018": 1295.13, "2019": 1311.61, "2020": 1326.54, "2021": 1348.33, "2022": 1365.04, "2023": 1389.97, "2024": 1412.44, "2025": 1430.98, "2026": 1451.2, "2027": 1472.54, "2028": 1496.73, "2029": 1520.59, "2030": 1544.84 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2011", "en": "AEO2011" }, "year": 2011, "values": { "2009": 1000.43, "2010": 1054.93, "2011": 1026.45, "2012": 1024.09, "2013": 1016.68, "2014": 1006.51, "2015": 1013.04, "2016": 1024.73, "2017": 1031.41, "2018": 1042.99, "2019": 1054.6, "2020": 1075.62, "2021": 1101.17, "2022": 1120.81, "2023": 1144.88, "2024": 1170.23, "2025": 1182.4, "2026": 1198.47, "2027": 1211.96, "2028": 1227.93, "2029": 1236.5, "2030": 1246.62, "2031": 1258.43, "2032": 1271.05, "2033": 1284.74, "2034": 1299.75, "2035": 1315.49 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2014", "en": "AEO2014" }, "year": 2014, "values": { "2012": 890.52, "2013": 942.015, "2014": 965.303, "2015": 964.008, "2016": 916.876, "2017": 937.909, "2018": 956.697, "2019": 964.621, "2020": 964.637, "2021": 970.191, "2022": 976.517, "2023": 978.146, "2024": 986.174, "2025": 992.533, "2026": 993.09, "2027": 995.108, "2028": 995.021, "2029": 996.025, "2030": 994.937, "2031": 992.594, "2032": 991.602, "2033": 989.195, "2034": 986.078, "2035": 985.309, "2036": 985.87, "2037": 981.849, "2038": 981.178, "2039": 980.299, "2040": 978.863 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2017", "en": "AEO2017" }, "year": 2017, "values": { "2015": 809.237, "2016": 716.135, "2017": 730.389, "2018": 738.645, "2019": 773.105, "2020": 791.3, "2021": 778.638, "2022": 750.35, "2023": 741.852, "2024": 724.873, "2025": 704.198, "2026": 682.406, "2027": 662.498, "2028": 645.089, "2029": 627.394, "2030": 608.093, "2031": 604.741, "2032": 596.402, "2033": 592.049, "2034": 581.571, "2035": 571.598, "2036": 571.15, "2037": 563.494, "2038": 555.819, "2039": 551.04, "2040": 546.856, "2041": 541.962, "2042": 537.996, "2043": 536.413, "2044": 531.846, "2045": 526.311, "2046": 522.421, "2047": 517.616, "2048": 516.597, "2049": 515.71, "2050": 507.45 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2021", "en": "AEO2021" }, "year": 2021, "values": { "2020": 466.397, "2021": 552.603, "2022": 575.061, "2023": 505.47, "2024": 458.854, "2025": 408.132, "2026": 417.307, "2027": 404.512, "2028": 408.271, "2029": 409.7, "2030": 405.951, "2031": 398.927, "2032": 392.065, "2033": 389.535, "2034": 388.877, "2035": 381.222, "2036": 379.623, "2037": 374.302, "2038": 363.183, "2039": 359.714, "2040": 357.877, "2041": 356.202, "2042": 356.369, "2043": 352.947, "2044": 350.871, "2045": 343.01, "2046": 340.756, "2047": 340.489, "2048": 342.712, "2049": 343.282, "2050": 343.069 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2035 ], "stats": { "n": 15, "above": 0, "median_pct": -28.7, "worst": [ 2015, 2020, 986.936646, 476.693102 ] }, "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/", "license": "US government work (public domain)" }, { "id": "usa_eia_co2", "iso3": "USA", "section": "energy", "metric": "co2", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "млн тонн CO₂ в год", "en": "million tonnes of CO2 a year", "dec": 0 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: Минэнерго переоценивало выбросы CO₂ — во всех 15 прогнозах на пять лет вперёд", "en": "US: the EIA over-projected CO2 emissions in 15 of 15 five-year-ahead projections" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": true, "direction": -1, "title": { "ru": "США: выбросы CO₂ от энергетики — прогнозы EIA и факт", "en": "US: energy-related CO2 emissions — EIA projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · CO₂", "en": "US · CO2" }, "note": { "ru": "15 прогнозов Минэнерго США на пять лет вперёд (2005–2019) переоценивали выбросы CO₂: факт ниже прогноза во всех 15, обычно на 8%. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2007 года: ждал на 2012 год 6 369 млн тонн CO₂ в год, вышло 5 236.", "en": "Five-year-ahead projections of 15 AEO editions 2005–2019 over-projected CO2 emissions: the outcome was below the projection in 15 of 15 cases, median gap −8%. The largest miss: AEO2007 expected 6,369 million tonnes of CO2 a year for 2012, the outcome was 5,236." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)", "en": "Actual (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)" }, "values": { "1990": 5038.31, "1991": 4992.85, "1992": 5093.72, "1993": 5185.7, "1994": 5262.76, "1995": 5325.12, "1996": 5518.28, "1997": 5590.15, "1998": 5637.01, "1999": 5699.94, "2000": 5888.73, "2001": 5778.35, "2002": 5820.01, "2003": 5886.96, "2004": 5994.0, "2005": 6007.55, "2006": 5929.9, "2007": 6015.26, "2008": 5823.34, "2009": 5403.97, "2010": 5593.82, "2011": 5454.85, "2012": 5236.48, "2013": 5359.02, "2014": 5414.03, "2015": 5262.2, "2016": 5169.04, "2017": 5131.2, "2018": 5278.22, "2019": 5146.99, "2020": 4585.25, "2021": 4905.91, "2022": 4940.77, "2023": 4794.53, "2024": 4777.63 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "AEO2005", "en": "AEO2005" }, "year": 2005, "values": { "2003": 5788.71, "2004": 5905.35, "2005": 6023.27, "2006": 6137.89, "2007": 6274.43, "2008": 6415.45, "2009": 6532.71, "2010": 6626.85, "2011": 6721.46, "2012": 6811.63, "2013": 6888.56, "2014": 6978.63, "2015": 7052.38, "2016": 7135.16, "2017": 7236.1, "2018": 7334.18, "2019": 7426.55, "2020": 7519.61, "2021": 7610.11, "2022": 7711.5, "2023": 7826.07, "2024": 7948.88, "2025": 8062.33 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2008", "en": "AEO2008" }, "year": 2008, "values": { "2006": 5890.28, "2007": 5976.73, "2008": 5983.05, "2009": 5977.96, "2010": 6010.59, "2011": 6087.46, "2012": 6144.24, "2013": 6153.99, "2014": 6187.09, "2015": 6226.18, "2016": 6271.79, "2017": 6308.27, "2018": 6349.79, "2019": 6368.37, "2020": 6384.1, "2021": 6416.08, "2022": 6438.24, "2023": 6482.54, "2024": 6530.85, "2025": 6570.57, "2026": 6622.39, "2027": 6678.31, "2028": 6735.46, "2029": 6783.44, "2030": 6851.01 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2011", "en": "AEO2011" }, "year": 2011, "values": { "2009": 5425.53, "2010": 5643.49, "2011": 5600.74, "2012": 5621.82, "2013": 5659.05, "2014": 5651.29, "2015": 5679.87, "2016": 5700.33, "2017": 5707.07, "2018": 5723.67, "2019": 5741.96, "2020": 5776.69, "2021": 5824.61, "2022": 5844.73, "2023": 5879.36, "2024": 5914.21, "2025": 5937.8, "2026": 5970.7, "2027": 6002.22, "2028": 6038.97, "2029": 6063.31, "2030": 6107.46, "2031": 6150.01, "2032": 6190.23, "2033": 6226.94, "2034": 6265.43, "2035": 6310.84 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2014", "en": "AEO2014" }, "year": 2014, "values": { "2012": 5289.86, "2013": 5421.27, "2014": 5425.5, "2015": 5418.14, "2016": 5381.51, "2017": 5417.64, "2018": 5452.45, "2019": 5468.76, "2020": 5475.94, "2021": 5487.25, "2022": 5498.47, "2023": 5506.36, "2024": 5518.53, "2025": 5526.23, "2026": 5526.76, "2027": 5530.88, "2028": 5531.26, "2029": 5527.67, "2030": 5526.89, "2031": 5523.75, "2032": 5523.81, "2033": 5529.81, "2034": 5537.56, "2035": 5545.7, "2036": 5554.16, "2037": 5564.48, "2038": 5579.72, "2039": 5590.91, "2040": 5599.08 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2017", "en": "AEO2017" }, "year": 2017, "values": { "2015": 5259.14, "2016": 5157.05, "2017": 5182.86, "2018": 5222.2, "2019": 5271.92, "2020": 5271.71, "2021": 5230.17, "2022": 5170.13, "2023": 5140.67, "2024": 5110.27, "2025": 5068.58, "2026": 5021.45, "2027": 4965.31, "2028": 4923.05, "2029": 4886.09, "2030": 4850.92, "2031": 4832.08, "2032": 4818.47, "2033": 4814.81, "2034": 4819.31, "2035": 4827.15, "2036": 4836.46, "2037": 4844.88, "2038": 4855.05, "2039": 4869.2, "2040": 4878.37, "2041": 4891.27, "2042": 4907.51, "2043": 4927.54, "2044": 4947.99, "2045": 4968.35, "2046": 4992.33, "2047": 5013.1, "2048": 5032.95, "2049": 5055.92, "2050": 5084.18 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2021", "en": "AEO2021" }, "year": 2021, "values": { "2020": 4562.53, "2021": 4725.03, "2022": 4844.7, "2023": 4768.64, "2024": 4687.76, "2025": 4622.88, "2026": 4649.9, "2027": 4615.03, "2028": 4606.24, "2029": 4601.1, "2030": 4583.55, "2031": 4570.7, "2032": 4558.2, "2033": 4558.04, "2034": 4565.22, "2035": 4552.88, "2036": 4559.2, "2037": 4563.65, "2038": 4564.6, "2039": 4578.92, "2040": 4595.75, "2041": 4609.67, "2042": 4635.04, "2043": 4660.16, "2044": 4679.69, "2045": 4691.08, "2046": 4707.08, "2047": 4725.87, "2048": 4753.48, "2049": 4779.4, "2050": 4806.91 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2035 ], "stats": { "n": 15, "above": 0, "median_pct": -8.2, "worst": [ 2007, 2012, 6369.222656, 5236.478 ] }, "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/", "license": "US government work (public domain)" }, { "id": "usa_eia_wind", "iso3": "USA", "section": "energy", "metric": "wind", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "млрд кВт·ч в год", "en": "billion kWh a year", "dec": 0 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: Минэнерго недооценивало выработку ветра — в 12 из 15 прогнозов на пять лет вперёд", "en": "US: the EIA under-projected wind generation in 12 of 15 five-year-ahead projections" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": true, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: выработка ветровых станций — прогнозы EIA и факт", "en": "US: wind generation — EIA projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · ветер", "en": "US · wind" }, "note": { "ru": "15 прогнозов Минэнерго США на пять лет вперёд (2005–2019) недооценивали выработку ветра: факт выше прогноза в 12 из 15, обычно на 57%. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2005 года: ждал на 2010 год 26 млрд кВт·ч в год, вышло 95.", "en": "Five-year-ahead projections of 15 AEO editions 2005–2019 under-projected wind generation: the outcome was above the projection in 12 of 15 cases, median gap +57%. The largest miss: AEO2005 expected 26 billion kWh a year for 2010, the outcome was 95." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)", "en": "Actual (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)" }, "values": { "1990": 2.7886, "1991": 2.95095, "1992": 2.88752, "1993": 3.00583, "1994": 3.44711, "1995": 3.16425, "1996": 3.23407, "1997": 3.28803, "1998": 3.0257, "1999": 4.488, "2000": 5.59326, "2001": 6.73733, "2002": 10.3543, "2003": 11.1875, "2004": 14.1437, "2005": 17.8105, "2006": 26.5891, "2007": 34.4499, "2008": 55.3631, "2009": 73.8861, "2010": 94.6522, "2011": 120.177, "2012": 140.822, "2013": 167.84, "2014": 181.655, "2015": 190.719, "2016": 226.993, "2017": 254.303, "2018": 272.667, "2019": 295.882, "2020": 337.938, "2021": 378.197, "2022": 434.297, "2023": 421.141, "2024": 453.454 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "AEO2005", "en": "AEO2005" }, "year": 2005, "values": { "2003": 10.729, "2004": 19.1586, "2005": 23.5501, "2006": 24.1096, "2007": 24.6841, "2008": 25.2549, "2009": 25.8261, "2010": 25.8865, "2011": 25.9015, "2012": 25.9684, "2013": 26.0688, "2014": 26.6236, "2015": 27.3437, "2016": 29.5473, "2017": 29.8178, "2018": 30.0949, "2019": 30.7704, "2020": 31.6107, "2021": 32.3177, "2022": 33.032, "2023": 33.3551, "2024": 33.7434, "2025": 34.522 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2008", "en": "AEO2008" }, "year": 2008, "values": { "2006": 25.8378, "2007": 38.1716, "2008": 49.9652, "2009": 56.8998, "2010": 74.1895, "2011": 79.4326, "2012": 81.1401, "2013": 83.5023, "2014": 85.2582, "2015": 87.259, "2016": 88.7225, "2017": 90.9729, "2018": 92.2523, "2019": 94.2669, "2020": 101.364, "2021": 102.671, "2022": 103.756, "2023": 106.907, "2024": 109.918, "2025": 113.383, "2026": 114.728, "2027": 115.626, "2028": 121.038, "2029": 121.88, "2030": 123.558 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2011", "en": "AEO2011" }, "year": 2011, "values": { "2009": 71.0637, "2010": 91.7507, "2011": 110.215, "2012": 142.962, "2013": 143.191, "2014": 143.661, "2015": 144.489, "2016": 144.828, "2017": 144.83, "2018": 144.833, "2019": 144.835, "2020": 145.217, "2021": 145.219, "2022": 147.382, "2023": 149.667, "2024": 151.535, "2025": 153.817, "2026": 157.104, "2027": 157.643, "2028": 158.23, "2029": 158.787, "2030": 159.088, "2031": 159.42, "2032": 160.122, "2033": 160.357, "2034": 161.031, "2035": 163.405 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2014", "en": "AEO2014" }, "year": 2014, "values": { "2012": 142.064, "2013": 164.837, "2014": 167.513, "2015": 199.073, "2016": 218.449, "2017": 218.474, "2018": 218.471, "2019": 218.48, "2020": 218.489, "2021": 218.49, "2022": 218.54, "2023": 218.534, "2024": 218.561, "2025": 218.645, "2026": 218.871, "2027": 219.119, "2028": 219.452, "2029": 219.88, "2030": 220.317, "2031": 220.8, "2032": 221.252, "2033": 221.918, "2034": 223.158, "2035": 226.646, "2036": 232.164, "2037": 236.849, "2038": 242.168, "2039": 246.476, "2040": 250.03 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2017", "en": "AEO2017" }, "year": 2017, "values": { "2015": 193.344, "2016": 224.879, "2017": 242.696, "2018": 261.056, "2019": 271.934, "2020": 318.259, "2021": 378.958, "2022": 445.55, "2023": 484.339, "2024": 491.512, "2025": 492.216, "2026": 492.664, "2027": 493.025, "2028": 493.553, "2029": 494.284, "2030": 494.761, "2031": 495.562, "2032": 496.427, "2033": 497.911, "2034": 498.884, "2035": 502.628, "2036": 508.142, "2037": 510.191, "2038": 515.149, "2039": 521.698, "2040": 526.482, "2041": 528.052, "2042": 529.553, "2043": 536.235, "2044": 545.012, "2045": 555.179, "2046": 566.664, "2047": 579.709, "2048": 593.046, "2049": 608.153, "2050": 612.763 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2021", "en": "AEO2021" }, "year": 2021, "values": { "2020": 342.854, "2021": 402.722, "2022": 415.07, "2023": 488.456, "2024": 604.724, "2025": 629.933, "2026": 632.547, "2027": 635.972, "2028": 644.797, "2029": 648.304, "2030": 673.396, "2031": 681.164, "2032": 683.211, "2033": 685.269, "2034": 703.451, "2035": 731.188, "2036": 741.625, "2037": 743.594, "2038": 745.4, "2039": 746.304, "2040": 747.644, "2041": 749.447, "2042": 748.772, "2043": 751.493, "2044": 756.615, "2045": 762.037, "2046": 766.127, "2047": 771.798, "2048": 774.481, "2049": 780.893, "2050": 789.722 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2035 ], "stats": { "n": 15, "above": 12, "median_pct": 56.7, "worst": [ 2005, 2010, 25.88646507, 94.652246 ] }, "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/", "license": "US government work (public domain)" }, { "id": "usa_eia_solar", "iso3": "USA", "section": "energy", "metric": "solar", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "млрд кВт·ч в год", "en": "billion kWh a year", "dec": 1 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: Минэнерго недооценивало солнечную выработку — во всех 10 прогнозах на пять лет вперёд", "en": "US: the EIA under-projected solar generation in 10 of 10 five-year-ahead projections" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": true, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: солнечная выработка — прогнозы EIA и факт", "en": "US: solar generation — EIA projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · солнце", "en": "US · solar" }, "note": { "ru": "10 прогнозов Минэнерго США на пять лет вперёд (2007–2016) недооценивали солнечную выработку: факт выше прогноза во всех 10, обычно на 192%. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2008 года: ждал на 2013 год 3,1 млрд кВт·ч в год, вышло 17,2.", "en": "Five-year-ahead projections of 10 AEO editions 2007–2016 under-projected solar generation: the outcome was above the projection in 10 of 10 cases, median gap +192%. The largest miss: AEO2008 expected 3.1 billion kWh a year for 2013, the outcome was 17.2." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)", "en": "Actual (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)" }, "values": { "2006": 1.00889, "2007": 1.31939, "2008": 2.00155, "2009": 2.41973, "2010": 3.62285, "2011": 5.64302, "2012": 10.4777, "2013": 17.1672, "2014": 28.9237, "2015": 39.0322, "2016": 54.8665, "2017": 77.2771, "2018": 93.3646, "2019": 106.894, "2020": 130.721, "2021": 163.703 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/archive/2022/excel/Table_17.xlsx" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "AEO2007", "en": "AEO2007" }, "year": 2007, "values": { "2006": 1.21893, "2007": 1.62798, "2008": 2.03544, "2009": 2.25345, "2010": 2.54818, "2011": 2.61428, "2012": 2.67358, "2013": 2.74057, "2014": 2.81098, "2015": 2.88496, "2016": 2.96066, "2017": 3.03639, "2018": 3.1134, "2019": 3.22585, "2020": 3.34852, "2021": 3.48387 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/archive/2022/excel/Table_17.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2010", "en": "AEO2010" }, "year": 2010, "values": { "2009": 3.18548, "2010": 4.422, "2011": 5.96024, "2012": 8.07074, "2013": 10.4166, "2014": 12.7706, "2015": 15.2611, "2016": 18.0237, "2017": 18.1347, "2018": 18.2534, "2019": 18.3821, "2020": 18.533, "2021": 18.6957 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/archive/2022/excel/Table_17.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2013", "en": "AEO2013" }, "year": 2013, "values": { "2012": 13.6621, "2013": 20.7056, "2014": 26.708, "2015": 31.7264, "2016": 35.3048, "2017": 36.2118, "2018": 36.427, "2019": 36.6873, "2020": 37.1009, "2021": 37.6241 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/archive/2022/excel/Table_17.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2016", "en": "AEO2016" }, "year": 2016, "values": { "2015": 37.6202, "2016": 51.2237, "2017": 72.4614, "2018": 81.0104, "2019": 86.6816, "2020": 92.5233, "2021": 115.082 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/archive/2022/excel/Table_17.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2019", "en": "AEO2019" }, "year": 2019, "values": { "2018": 100.213, "2019": 115.162, "2020": 134.02, "2021": 156.426 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/archive/2022/excel/Table_17.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2022", "en": "AEO2022" }, "year": 2022, "values": { "2021": 164.277 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/archive/2022/excel/Table_17.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2021 ], "stats": { "n": 10, "above": 10, "median_pct": 192.3, "worst": [ 2008, 2013, 3.074948459863668, 17.167167000000003 ] }, "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/", "license": "US government work (public domain)" }, { "id": "usa_eia_oil_price", "iso3": "USA", "section": "energy", "metric": "oil_price", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "долл. за баррель (в текущих ценах)", "en": "US dollars per barrel (nominal)", "dec": 0 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: прогнозы цены нефти Минэнерго на пять лет вперёд ошибались в обе стороны — от −61% до +164%", "en": "US: EIA five-year oil price projections missed both ways, from −61% to +164%" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: цена нефти — прогнозы EIA и факт", "en": "US: crude oil price — EIA projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · цена нефти", "en": "US · oil price" }, "note": { "ru": "15 прогнозов Минэнерго США на пять лет вперёд (2005–2019): факт выше прогноза в 5, ниже — в 10. Сильнее всего ошибся прогноз 2005 года: ждал на 2010 год 29 долл. за баррель (в текущих ценах), вышло 76 (+164%).", "en": "Five-year-ahead projections of 15 AEO editions 2005–2019: the outcome above the projection 5 times, below 10; errors both ways. The largest miss: AEO2005 expected 29 US dollars per barrel (nominal) for 2010, the outcome was 76 (+164%)." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)", "en": "Actual (EIA, Monthly Energy Review)" }, "values": { "1990": 21.76, "1991": 18.7, "1992": 18.2, "1993": 16.14, "1994": 15.51, "1995": 17.14, "1996": 20.64, "1997": 18.53, "1998": 12.04, "1999": 17.26, "2000": 27.7, "2001": 22.0, "2002": 23.71, "2003": 27.71, "2004": 35.9, "2005": 48.86, "2006": 59.02, "2007": 67.04, "2008": 92.77, "2009": 59.17, "2010": 75.86, "2011": 102.63, "2012": 101.09, "2013": 98.11, "2014": 89.56, "2015": 46.38, "2016": 38.75, "2017": 49.12, "2018": 60.95, "2019": 57.94, "2020": 37.41, "2021": 65.85, "2022": 91.83, "2023": 74.53, "2024": 74.24 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "AEO2005", "en": "AEO2005" }, "year": 2005, "values": { "2003": 27.7333, "2004": 35.7411, "2005": 35.3961, "2006": 31.7789, "2007": 29.5157, "2008": 28.7829, "2009": 28.4278, "2010": 28.7297, "2011": 29.8429, "2012": 31.0063, "2013": 32.1739, "2014": 33.3884, "2015": 34.6498, "2016": 35.9181, "2017": 37.2916, "2018": 38.7767, "2019": 40.3622, "2020": 42.0348, "2021": 43.8126, "2022": 45.6825, "2023": 47.6337, "2024": 49.6905, "2025": 51.8803 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2008", "en": "AEO2008" }, "year": 2008, "values": { "2006": 59.0485, "2007": 63.7199, "2008": 75.9848, "2009": 72.5763, "2010": 70.428, "2011": 68.9029, "2012": 67.1613, "2013": 65.2448, "2014": 63.3334, "2015": 61.3814, "2016": 59.3331, "2017": 60.6373, "2018": 62.6928, "2019": 65.0023, "2020": 67.2302, "2021": 69.3188, "2022": 71.7961, "2023": 74.6532, "2024": 77.4075, "2025": 80.5157, "2026": 83.64, "2027": 84.2212, "2028": 87.5081, "2029": 91.053, "2030": 94.1368 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2011", "en": "AEO2011" }, "year": 2011, "values": { "2009": 59.0369, "2010": 75.5153, "2011": 82.0975, "2012": 83.3694, "2013": 87.095, "2014": 91.0337, "2015": 94.7844, "2016": 99.048, "2017": 104.046, "2018": 109.115, "2019": 114.161, "2020": 119.182, "2021": 124.046, "2022": 128.512, "2023": 133.042, "2024": 137.588, "2025": 142.053, "2026": 146.495, "2027": 150.864, "2028": 155.022, "2029": 159.123, "2030": 162.92, "2031": 166.574, "2032": 170.12, "2033": 173.801, "2034": 177.477, "2035": 181.428 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2014", "en": "AEO2014" }, "year": 2014, "values": { "2012": 101.1, "2013": 103.07, "2014": 101.27, "2015": 93.327, "2016": 90.7509, "2017": 90.5255, "2018": 92.4146, "2019": 95.6977, "2020": 99.7484, "2021": 104.112, "2022": 108.809, "2023": 113.54, "2024": 118.285, "2025": 123.191, "2026": 127.908, "2027": 133.019, "2028": 137.622, "2029": 142.574, "2030": 147.024, "2031": 152.452, "2032": 158.369, "2033": 165.005, "2034": 171.983, "2035": 178.431, "2036": 184.74, "2037": 191.324, "2038": 198.789, "2039": 207.316, "2040": 216.866 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2017", "en": "AEO2017" }, "year": 2017, "values": { "2015": 46.343, "2016": 38.481, "2017": 46.527, "2018": 58.6524, "2019": 67.0931, "2020": 72.9123, "2021": 78.1227, "2022": 82.9088, "2023": 86.5425, "2024": 90.2081, "2025": 95.1292, "2026": 100.024, "2027": 103.413, "2028": 106.208, "2029": 110.308, "2030": 116.056, "2031": 121.269, "2032": 127.188, "2033": 129.692, "2034": 134.989, "2035": 138.873, "2036": 145.73, "2037": 149.165, "2038": 153.637, "2039": 159.445, "2040": 164.573, "2041": 168.576, "2042": 172.455, "2043": 176.825, "2044": 181.373, "2045": 186.129, "2046": 191.958, "2047": 198.592, "2048": 203.495, "2049": 210.567, "2050": 218.062 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" }, { "label": { "ru": "AEO2021", "en": "AEO2021" }, "year": 2021, "values": { "2020": 36.858, "2021": 42.072, "2022": 49.6816, "2023": 55.262, "2024": 60.1353, "2025": 64.3135, "2026": 68.2999, "2027": 72.5958, "2028": 77.1205, "2029": 81.1093, "2030": 85.2172, "2031": 89.2661, "2032": 93.342, "2033": 97.1088, "2034": 100.045, "2035": 103.367, "2036": 107.322, "2037": 110.418, "2038": 115.087, "2039": 117.907, "2040": 125.464, "2041": 130.456, "2042": 135.336, "2043": 141.186, "2044": 145.687, "2045": 148.278, "2046": 156.041, "2047": 161.542, "2048": 165.588, "2049": 170.877, "2050": 175.53 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/csv/dashappdata_allcases.csv" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2035 ], "stats": { "n": 15, "above": 5, "median_pct": -20.3, "worst": [ 2005, 2010, 28.72971254, 75.86 ], "both": 5 }, "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/", "license": "US government work (public domain)" }, { "id": "usa_fed_pce", "iso3": "USA", "section": "economy", "metric": "pce_inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (цены PCE, IV кв. к IV кв.)", "en": "% (PCE prices, Q4 over Q4)", "dec": 1 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: ФРС в июне 2020 года ждала инфляцию 1,6% на 2021 год — вышло 5,7%", "en": "US: in June 2020 the Fed expected inflation of 1.6% for 2021; the outcome was 5.7%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: инфляция — прогнозы ФРС и факт", "en": "US: inflation — Federal Reserve projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · инфляция (ФРС)", "en": "US · inflation (Fed)" }, "note": { "ru": "69 прогнозов на следующий год (2007–2024): факт выше прогноза в 29 случаях, ниже — в 40; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,11 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в июне 2020: ждали на 2021 год 1,6%, вышло 5,7%. Сильнее всего переоценили в марте 2014: ждали на 2015 год 1,8%, вышло 0,2%. Медианы до июня 2015 года посчитаны по прогнозам участников, которые ФРС публикует с задержкой в пять лет. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Next-year projections of 69 releases (2007–2024): the outcome above the median projection 29 times, below 40; median error −0.11 pp. The largest under-projection in June 2020: 1.6% expected for 2021, the outcome was 5.7%. The largest over-projection in March 2014: 1.8% expected for 2015, the outcome was 0.2%. Medians before June 2015 are computed from participants' projections that the Fed publishes with a five-year lag. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (BEA, последние данные)", "en": "Actual (BEA, latest data)" }, "values": { "2007": 3.39, "2008": 1.24, "2009": 1.18, "2010": 1.38, "2011": 2.64, "2012": 1.77, "2013": 1.19, "2014": 1.05, "2015": 0.23, "2016": 1.49, "2017": 1.75, "2018": 1.95, "2019": 1.4, "2020": 1.24, "2021": 5.73, "2022": 6.07, "2023": 2.95, "2024": 2.52, "2025": 2.72 }, "src": "https://apps.bea.gov/national/Release/TXT/NipaDataM.txt" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2015", "en": "Dec 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-12-16", "values": { "2015": 0.4, "2016": 1.6, "2017": 1.9, "2018": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20151216.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2018", "en": "Dec 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-12-19", "values": { "2018": 1.9, "2019": 1.9, "2020": 2.1, "2021": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20181219.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2019", "en": "Dec 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-11", "values": { "2019": 1.5, "2020": 1.9, "2021": 2.0, "2022": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20191211.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2020", "en": "Dec 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-12-16", "values": { "2020": 1.2, "2021": 1.8, "2022": 1.9, "2023": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20201216.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2021", "en": "Dec 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-12-15", "values": { "2021": 5.3, "2022": 2.6, "2023": 2.3, "2024": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2022", "en": "Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-14", "values": { "2022": 5.6, "2023": 3.1, "2024": 2.5, "2025": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20221214.htm", "measure": "median_published" } ], "xRange": [ 2006, 2028 ], "view": "c=USA&i=inflation&past=1&from=2005", "source_page": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" }, { "id": "usa_fed_rate", "iso3": "USA", "section": "economy", "metric": "fed_funds", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% на конец года (середина целевого диапазона)", "en": "% at the end of the year (midpoint of the target range)", "dec": 1 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: ФРС в марте 2021 года ждала ставку 0,1% на 2022 год — вышло 4,4%", "en": "US: in March 2021 the Fed expected the policy rate of 0.1% for 2022; the outcome was 4.4%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: ставка ФРС — прогнозы самой ФРС и факт", "en": "US: the federal funds rate — Fed projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · ставка ФРС", "en": "US · Fed rate" }, "note": { "ru": "52 прогноза на следующий год (2012–2024): факт выше прогноза в 27 случаях, ниже — в 25; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,02 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в марте 2021: ждали на 2022 год 0,1%, вышло 4,4%. Сильнее всего переоценили в марте 2019: ждали на 2020 год 2,6%, вышло 0,1%. Медианы до июня 2015 года посчитаны по прогнозам участников, которые ФРС публикует с задержкой в пять лет. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Next-year projections of 52 releases (2012–2024): the outcome above the median projection 27 times, below 25; median error +0.02 pp. The largest under-projection in March 2021: 0.1% expected for 2022, the outcome was 4.4%. The largest over-projection in March 2019: 2.6% expected for 2020, the outcome was 0.1%. Medians before June 2015 are computed from participants' projections that the Fed publishes with a five-year lag. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (ФРС, решения FOMC)", "en": "Actual (Federal Reserve, FOMC decisions)" }, "values": { "2007": 4.25, "2008": 0.125, "2009": 0.125, "2010": 0.125, "2011": 0.125, "2012": 0.125, "2013": 0.125, "2014": 0.125, "2015": 0.375, "2016": 0.625, "2017": 1.375, "2018": 2.375, "2019": 1.625, "2020": 0.125, "2021": 0.125, "2022": 4.375, "2023": 5.375, "2024": 4.375, "2025": 3.625 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2014", "en": "Dec 2014" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-12-17", "values": { "2014": 0.1, "2015": 1.1, "2016": 2.5, "2017": 3.6 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20141217SEPcompilation.pdf", "measure": "median_computed_from_individual_projections" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2018", "en": "Dec 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-12-19", "values": { "2018": 2.4, "2019": 2.9, "2020": 3.1, "2021": 3.1 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20181219.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2020", "en": "Dec 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-12-16", "values": { "2020": 0.1, "2021": 0.1, "2022": 0.1, "2023": 0.1 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20201216.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2021", "en": "Dec 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-12-15", "values": { "2021": 0.1, "2022": 0.9, "2023": 1.6, "2024": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2022", "en": "Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-14", "values": { "2022": 4.4, "2023": 5.1, "2024": 4.1, "2025": 3.1 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20221214.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2023", "en": "Dec 2023" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-12-13", "values": { "2023": 5.4, "2024": 4.6, "2025": 3.6, "2026": 2.9 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20231213.htm", "measure": "median_published" } ], "xRange": [ 2006, 2028 ], "source_page": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" }, { "id": "usa_fed_unemployment", "iso3": "USA", "section": "economy", "metric": "unemployment", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (среднее за IV квартал)", "en": "% (Q4 average)", "dec": 1 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: участники ФРС в феврале 2008 года ждали безработицу 5,1% на 2009 год — вышло 9,9%", "en": "US: in February 2008 Fed participants expected (median) unemployment of 5.1% for 2009; the outcome was 9.9%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: безработица — прогнозы ФРС и факт", "en": "US: unemployment — Federal Reserve projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · безработица (ФРС)", "en": "US · unemployment (Fed)" }, "note": { "ru": "69 прогнозов на следующий год (2007–2024): факт выше прогноза в 26 случаях, ниже — в 43; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,23 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в феврале 2008: ждали на 2009 год 5,1%, вышло 9,9%. Сильнее всего переоценили в июне 2020: ждали на 2021 год 6,5%, вышло 4,2%. Медианы до июня 2015 года посчитаны по прогнозам участников, которые ФРС публикует с задержкой в пять лет. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Next-year projections of 69 releases (2007–2024): the outcome above the median projection 26 times, below 43; median error −0.23 pp. The largest under-projection in February 2008: 5.1% expected for 2009, the outcome was 9.9%. The largest over-projection in June 2020: 6.5% expected for 2021, the outcome was 4.2%. Medians before June 2015 are computed from participants' projections that the Fed publishes with a five-year lag. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (BLS, последние данные)", "en": "Actual (BLS, latest data)" }, "values": { "2007": 4.8, "2008": 6.87, "2009": 9.93, "2010": 9.5, "2011": 8.63, "2012": 7.8, "2013": 6.93, "2014": 5.7, "2015": 5.03, "2016": 4.77, "2017": 4.17, "2018": 3.83, "2019": 3.6, "2020": 6.77, "2021": 4.17, "2022": 3.57, "2023": 3.8, "2024": 4.13, "2025": 4.45 }, "src": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "нояб. 2007", "en": "Nov 2007" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2007-11-20", "values": { "2007": 4.8, "2008": 4.9, "2009": 4.9, "2010": 4.8 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20071031SEPcompilation.pdf", "measure": "median_computed_from_individual_projections" }, { "label": { "ru": "нояб. 2009", "en": "Nov 2009" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009-11-24", "values": { "2009": 10.0, "2010": 9.5, "2011": 8.3, "2012": 7.0 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20091104SEPcompilation.pdf", "measure": "median_computed_from_individual_projections" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2012", "en": "Dec 2012" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2012-12-12", "values": { "2012": 7.8, "2013": 7.5, "2014": 7.0, "2015": 6.3 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20121212SEPcompilation.pdf", "measure": "median_computed_from_individual_projections" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2016", "en": "Dec 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-12-14", "values": { "2016": 4.7, "2017": 4.5, "2018": 4.5, "2019": 4.5 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20161214.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "июнь 2020", "en": "Jun 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-06-10", "values": { "2020": 9.3, "2021": 6.5, "2022": 5.5 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20200610.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2022", "en": "Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-14", "values": { "2022": 3.7, "2023": 4.6, "2024": 4.6, "2025": 4.5 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20221214.htm", "measure": "median_published" } ], "xRange": [ 2006, 2028 ], "view": "c=USA&i=unemployment&past=1&from=2005", "source_page": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" }, { "id": "usa_fed_gdp", "iso3": "USA", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (реальный ВВП, IV кв. к IV кв.)", "en": "% (real GDP, Q4 over Q4)", "dec": 1 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: участники ФРС в ноябре 2007 года ждали рост ВВП 2,2% на 2008 год — вышло −2,5%", "en": "US: in November 2007 Fed participants expected (median) GDP growth of 2.2% for 2008; the outcome was −2.5%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: рост ВВП — прогнозы ФРС и факт", "en": "US: GDP growth — Federal Reserve projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · рост ВВП (ФРС)", "en": "US · GDP growth (Fed)" }, "note": { "ru": "69 прогнозов на следующий год (2007–2024): факт выше прогноза в 31 случае, ниже — в 38; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,22 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в декабре 2022: ждали на 2023 год 0,5%, вышло 3,4%. Сильнее всего переоценили в ноябре 2007: ждали на 2008 год 2,2%, вышло −2,5%. Медианы до июня 2015 года посчитаны по прогнозам участников, которые ФРС публикует с задержкой в пять лет. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Next-year projections of 69 releases (2007–2024): the outcome above the median projection 31 times, below 38; median error −0.22 pp. The largest under-projection in December 2022: 0.5% expected for 2023, the outcome was 3.4%. The largest over-projection in November 2007: 2.2% expected for 2008, the outcome was −2.5%. Medians before June 2015 are computed from participants' projections that the Fed publishes with a five-year lag. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (BEA, последние данные)", "en": "Actual (BEA, latest data)" }, "values": { "2007": 2.13, "2008": -2.54, "2009": 0.11, "2010": 2.78, "2011": 1.54, "2012": 1.55, "2013": 3.01, "2014": 2.69, "2015": 2.12, "2016": 2.18, "2017": 2.99, "2018": 2.13, "2019": 3.35, "2020": -0.92, "2021": 5.82, "2022": 1.23, "2023": 3.42, "2024": 2.64, "2025": 2.05 }, "src": "https://apps.bea.gov/national/Release/TXT/NipaDataQ.txt" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "нояб. 2007", "en": "Nov 2007" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2007-11-20", "values": { "2007": 2.4, "2008": 2.2, "2009": 2.5, "2010": 2.5 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20071031SEPcompilation.pdf", "measure": "median_computed_from_individual_projections" }, { "label": { "ru": "нояб. 2010", "en": "Nov 2010" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2010-11-23", "values": { "2010": 2.4, "2011": 3.5, "2012": 4.2, "2013": 4.1 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20101103SEPcompilation.pdf", "measure": "median_computed_from_individual_projections" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2014", "en": "Dec 2014" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-12-17", "values": { "2014": 2.4, "2015": 2.8, "2016": 2.7, "2017": 2.3 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20141217SEPcompilation.pdf", "measure": "median_computed_from_individual_projections" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2019", "en": "Dec 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-11", "values": { "2019": 2.2, "2020": 2.0, "2021": 1.9, "2022": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20191211.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "июнь 2020", "en": "Jun 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-06-10", "values": { "2020": -6.5, "2021": 5.0, "2022": 3.5 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20200610.htm", "measure": "median_published" }, { "label": { "ru": "дек. 2022", "en": "Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-14", "values": { "2022": 0.5, "2023": 0.5, "2024": 1.6, "2025": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20221214.htm", "measure": "median_published" } ], "xRange": [ 2006, 2028 ], "view": "c=USA&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2005", "source_page": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" }, { "id": "mex_banxico_inflation", "iso3": "MEX", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "headline INPC, annual % change of the quarterly average index, Q4", "headline": { "ru": "Мексика: центробанк в марте 2021 года ждал инфляцию 3,0% на 2022 год — вышло 8,0%", "en": "Mexico: in March 2021 the Bank of Mexico expected inflation of 3.0% for 2022; the outcome was 8.0%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Мексика: инфляция — прогнозы Банка Мексики и факт", "en": "Mexico: inflation — Banxico forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Мексика · инфляция (Банк Мексики)", "en": "Mexico · inflation (Banxico)" }, "note": { "ru": "28 прогнозов (2018–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 24 случаях, ниже — в 4; обычно факт выше прогноза на 1,15 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в марте 2021: ждали на 2022 год 3,0%, вышло 8,0%. Сильнее всего переоценили в ноябре 2018: ждали на 2019 год 3,4%, вышло 2,9%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 28 releases (2018–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 24 times, below 4; median error +1.15 pp. The largest under-forecast in March 2021: 3.0% expected for 2022, the outcome was 8.0%. The largest over-forecast in November 2018: 3.4% expected for 2019, the outcome was 2.9%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2018": 4.8, "2019": 2.9, "2020": 3.5, "2021": 7.0, "2022": 8.0, "2023": 4.4, "2024": 4.5, "2025": 3.7 }, "src": "https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/informes-trimestrales/{B8130BD4-E28D-8D4A-2ADE-A596E9D31FB0}.pdf" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк Мексики, нояб. 2018", "en": "Banxico, Nov 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-11-28", "values": { "2018": 4.7, "2019": 3.4 }, "src": "https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/informes-trimestrales/{40D5EA43-2BDD-B0D3-2B6C-13A788854EF2}.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Мексики, нояб. 2020", "en": "Banxico, Nov 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-11-25", "values": { "2020": 3.6, "2021": 3.3 }, "src": "https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/informes-trimestrales/{BA84D725-CC89-F4A2-0C1A-55574664349E}.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Мексики, нояб. 2021", "en": "Banxico, Nov 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-11-11", "values": { "2021": 6.8, "2022": 3.3 }, "src": "https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/informes-trimestrales/{BDA1C678-D0AE-C3F0-7A88-D97F28A23EFA}.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Мексики, нояб. 2023", "en": "Banxico, Nov 2023" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-11-09", "values": { "2023": 4.4, "2024": 3.4 }, "src": "https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/informes-trimestrales/{5EE6C7F5-94FB-4D6C-AE70-A6A2742BAE94}.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Мексики, нояб. 2024", "en": "Banxico, Nov 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-11-14", "values": { "2024": 4.7, "2025": 3.0 }, "src": "https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/informes-trimestrales/{8F3EB8F6-3757-7C98-3FF2-4C7CB6BFD5D8}.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Мексики, авг. 2026", "en": "Banxico, Aug 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-08-06", "values": { "2026": 3.5, "2027": 3.0 }, "src": "https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/informes-trimestrales/{327C4C24-14D5-9E05-DD4F-6F5DB01DCAFE}.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2016, 2027 ], "view": "c=MEX&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "BANXICO" }, { "id": "bra_bcb_inflation", "iso3": "BRA", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "IPCA, % change Dec on Dec", "headline": { "ru": "Бразилия: центробанк в сентябре 2020 года ждал инфляцию 2,9% на 2021 год — вышло 10,1%", "en": "Brazil: in September 2020 the Central Bank of Brazil expected inflation of 2.9% for 2021; the outcome was 10.1%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Бразилия: инфляция — прогнозы Центрального банка Бразилии и факт", "en": "Brazil: inflation — BCB forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Бразилия · инфляция (ЦБ Бразилии)", "en": "Brazil · inflation (BCB)" }, "note": { "ru": "64 прогноза (2017–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 54 случаях, ниже — в 10; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,92 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в сентябре 2020: ждали на 2021 год 2,9%, вышло 10,1%. Сильнее всего переоценили в мае 2017: ждали на 2018 год 4,6%, вышло 3,8%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 64 releases (2017–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 54 times, below 10; median error +0.92 pp. The largest under-forecast in September 2020: 2.9% expected for 2021, the outcome was 10.1%. The largest over-forecast in May 2017: 4.6% expected for 2018, the outcome was 3.8%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2000": 5.97, "2001": 7.67, "2002": 12.53, "2003": 9.3, "2004": 7.6, "2005": 5.69, "2006": 3.14, "2007": 4.46, "2008": 5.9, "2009": 4.31, "2010": 5.91, "2011": 6.5, "2012": 5.84, "2013": 5.91, "2014": 6.41, "2015": 10.67, "2016": 6.29, "2017": 2.95, "2018": 3.75, "2019": 4.31, "2020": 4.52, "2021": 10.06, "2022": 5.79, "2023": 4.62, "2024": 4.83, "2025": 4.26 }, "src": "https://apisidra.ibge.gov.br/values/t/1737/n1/all/v/2265/p/all" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Бразилии, дек. 2017", "en": "BCB, Dec 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-12-06", "values": { "2017": 2.9, "2018": 4.2, "2019": 4.2 }, "src": "https://www.bcb.gov.br/api/servico/sitebcb/copom/comunicados_detalhes?nro_reuniao=211" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Бразилии, дек. 2019", "en": "BCB, Dec 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-11", "values": { "2019": 4.0, "2020": 3.5, "2021": 3.4 }, "src": "https://www.bcb.gov.br/api/servico/sitebcb/copom/comunicados_detalhes?nro_reuniao=227" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Бразилии, дек. 2021", "en": "BCB, Dec 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-12-08", "values": { "2021": 10.2, "2022": 4.7, "2023": 3.2 }, "src": "https://www.bcb.gov.br/api/servico/sitebcb/copom/comunicados_detalhes?nro_reuniao=243" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Бразилии, дек. 2022", "en": "BCB, Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-07", "values": { "2022": 6.0, "2023": 5.0, "2024": 3.0 }, "src": "https://www.bcb.gov.br/api/servico/sitebcb/copom/comunicados_detalhes?nro_reuniao=251" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Бразилии, дек. 2024", "en": "BCB, Dec 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-12-11", "values": { "2024": 4.9, "2025": 4.5 }, "src": "https://www.bcb.gov.br/api/servico/sitebcb/copom/comunicados_detalhes?nro_reuniao=267" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Бразилии, сент. 2026", "en": "BCB, Sep 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-09-16", "values": { "2026": 5.2, "2027": 3.9 }, "src": "https://www.bcb.gov.br/api/servico/sitebcb/copom/comunicados_detalhes?nro_reuniao=281" } ], "xRange": [ 2015, 2027 ], "view": "c=BRA&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "BCB" }, { "id": "can_boc_gdp_growth", "iso3": "CAN", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "real GDP, annual average % change", "headline": { "ru": "Канада: центробанк в январе 2014 года ждал рост ВВП 2,5% на 2015 год — вышло 0,6%", "en": "Canada: in January 2014 the Bank of Canada expected GDP growth of 2.5% for 2015; the outcome was 0.6%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Канада: рост ВВП — прогнозы Банка Канады и факт", "en": "Canada: GDP growth — BoC forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Канада · рост ВВП (Банк Канады)", "en": "Canada · GDP growth (BoC)" }, "note": { "ru": "60 прогнозов (2009–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 28 случаях, ниже — в 32; обычно факт почти совпадал с прогнозом. Сильнее всего недооценили в январе 2020: ждали на 2021 год 2,0%, вышло 6,0%. Сильнее всего переоценили в январе 2019: ждали на 2020 год 2,1%, вышло −5,0%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 60 releases (2009–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 28 times, below 32; median error 0.00 pp. The largest under-forecast in January 2020: 2.0% expected for 2021, the outcome was 6.0%. The largest over-forecast in January 2019: 2.1% expected for 2020, the outcome was −5.0%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "1995": 2.7, "1996": 1.7, "1997": 4.3, "1998": 3.9, "1999": 5.1, "2000": 5.1, "2001": 1.9, "2002": 3.0, "2003": 1.8, "2004": 3.1, "2005": 3.2, "2006": 2.6, "2007": 2.0, "2008": 1.0, "2009": -2.9, "2010": 3.1, "2011": 3.1, "2012": 1.8, "2013": 2.3, "2014": 2.9, "2015": 0.6, "2016": 1.0, "2017": 3.0, "2018": 2.7, "2019": 1.9, "2020": -5.0, "2021": 6.0, "2022": 4.7, "2023": 2.0, "2024": 2.0, "2025": 1.9 }, "src": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610010401" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2009", "en": "BoC, Oct 2009" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009-10-22", "values": { "2009": -2.4, "2010": 3.0, "2011": 3.3 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/mpr221009.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2012", "en": "BoC, Oct 2012" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2012-10-24", "values": { "2012": 2.2, "2013": 2.3, "2014": 2.4 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/mpr-october2012.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2016", "en": "BoC, Oct 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-10-19", "values": { "2016": 1.1, "2017": 2.0, "2018": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/mpr-2016-10-19.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2019", "en": "BoC, Oct 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-10-30", "values": { "2019": 1.5, "2020": 1.7, "2021": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/mpr-2019-10-30.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2023", "en": "BoC, Oct 2023" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-10-25", "values": { "2023": 1.2, "2024": 0.9, "2025": 2.5 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/mpr-2023-10-25.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, июль 2026", "en": "BoC, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07-15", "values": { "2026": 0.7, "2027": 1.8, "2028": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/mpr-2026-07-15.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2007, 2027 ], "view": "c=CAN&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "BOC" }, { "id": "can_boc_inflation", "iso3": "CAN", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "CPI, year-over-year % change in Q4", "headline": { "ru": "Канада: центробанк в январе 2021 года ждал инфляцию 1,9% на 2022 год — вышло 6,7%", "en": "Canada: in January 2021 the Bank of Canada expected inflation of 1.9% for 2022; the outcome was 6.7%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Канада: инфляция — прогнозы Банка Канады и факт", "en": "Canada: inflation — BoC forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Канада · инфляция (Банк Канады)", "en": "Canada · inflation (BoC)" }, "note": { "ru": "55 прогнозов (2010–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 20 случаях, ниже — в 35; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,10 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в январе 2021: ждали на 2022 год 1,9%, вышло 6,7%. Сильнее всего переоценили в январе 2019: ждали на 2020 год 2,0%, вышло 0,8%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 55 releases (2010–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 20 times, below 35; median error −0.10 pp. The largest under-forecast in January 2021: 1.9% expected for 2022, the outcome was 6.7%. The largest over-forecast in January 2019: 2.0% expected for 2020, the outcome was 0.8%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "1995": 2.1, "1996": 2.0, "1997": 1.0, "1998": 1.1, "1999": 2.4, "2000": 3.1, "2001": 1.1, "2002": 3.8, "2003": 1.7, "2004": 2.3, "2005": 2.2, "2006": 1.4, "2007": 2.4, "2008": 1.9, "2009": 0.8, "2010": 2.3, "2011": 2.7, "2012": 0.9, "2013": 0.9, "2014": 1.9, "2015": 1.3, "2016": 1.4, "2017": 1.8, "2018": 2.0, "2019": 2.1, "2020": 0.8, "2021": 4.7, "2022": 6.7, "2023": 3.2, "2024": 1.9, "2025": 2.2 }, "src": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2010", "en": "BoC, Oct 2010" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2010-10-20", "values": { "2010": 2.1, "2011": 1.9, "2012": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/mproct10.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2013", "en": "BoC, Oct 2013" }, "year": 2013, "published": "2013-10-23", "values": { "2013": 1.3, "2014": 1.7, "2015": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/mpr-october2013.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2016", "en": "BoC, Oct 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-10-19", "values": { "2016": 1.5, "2017": 1.9, "2018": 1.9 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/mpr-2016-10-19.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2020", "en": "BoC, Oct 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-10-28", "values": { "2020": 0.2, "2021": 1.3, "2022": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/mpr-2020-10-28.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, окт. 2023", "en": "BoC, Oct 2023" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-10-25", "values": { "2023": 3.3, "2024": 2.5, "2025": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/mpr-2023-10-25.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Канады, июль 2026", "en": "BoC, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07-15", "values": { "2026": 2.0, "2027": 2.1, "2028": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/mpr-2026-07-15.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2008, 2027 ], "view": "c=CAN&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "BOC" }, { "id": "gbr_boe_gdp_growth", "iso3": "GBR", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "real GDP, four-quarter % change in Q4", "headline": { "ru": "Великобритания: Банк Англии в мае 2007 года ждал рост ВВП 2,9% на 2008 год — вышло −3,8%", "en": "UK: in May 2007 the Bank of England expected GDP growth of 2.9% for 2008; the outcome was −3.8%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Великобритания: рост ВВП — прогнозы Банка Англии и факт", "en": "UK: GDP growth — BoE forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Великобритания · рост ВВП (Банк Англии)", "en": "UK · GDP growth (BoE)" }, "note": { "ru": "110 прогнозов (1997–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 46 случаях, ниже — в 64; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,28 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в январе 2020: ждали на 2021 год 1,5%, вышло 9,2%. Сильнее всего переоценили в мае 2019: ждали на 2020 год 1,9%, вышло −7,8%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 110 releases (1997–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 46 times, below 64; median error −0.28 pp. The largest under-forecast in January 2020: 1.5% expected for 2021, the outcome was 9.2%. The largest over-forecast in May 2019: 1.9% expected for 2020, the outcome was −7.8%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "1997": 5.2, "1998": 2.1, "1999": 4.3, "2000": 3.3, "2001": 2.1, "2002": 2.0, "2003": 3.6, "2004": 1.6, "2005": 3.5, "2006": 1.3, "2007": 3.9, "2008": -3.8, "2009": -1.8, "2010": 2.9, "2011": 0.5, "2012": 1.8, "2013": 2.7, "2014": 3.2, "2015": 1.8, "2016": 2.3, "2017": 3.7, "2018": 0.7, "2019": 1.6, "2020": -7.8, "2021": 9.2, "2022": 1.8, "2023": -0.2, "2024": 1.9, "2025": 0.8 }, "src": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?format=csv&uri=/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/qna" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 1997", "en": "BoE, Nov 1997" }, "year": 1997, "published": "1997-11-12", "values": { "1997": 4.02, "1998": 1.33, "1999": 2.33 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20120728103834id_/http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/gdpinternet.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 2003", "en": "BoE, Nov 2003" }, "year": 2003, "published": "2003-11-12", "values": { "2003": 2.14, "2004": 2.84, "2005": 2.85 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20120728103834id_/http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/gdpinternet.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 2009", "en": "BoE, Nov 2009" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009-11-11", "values": { "2009": -2.9, "2010": 3.7, "2011": 4.0, "2012": 3.3 }, "src": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2026/july/mpr-july-2026-charts-slides-and-data.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 2014", "en": "BoE, Nov 2014" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-11-12", "values": { "2014": 3.1, "2015": 2.7, "2016": 2.7, "2017": 2.7 }, "src": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2026/july/mpr-july-2026-charts-slides-and-data.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 2020", "en": "BoE, Nov 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-11-05", "values": { "2020": -11.0, "2021": 11.0, "2022": 3.1, "2023": 1.6 }, "src": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2026/july/mpr-july-2026-charts-slides-and-data.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, июль 2026", "en": "BoE, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07-30", "values": { "2026": 1.2, "2027": 1.4, "2028": 1.7 }, "src": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2026/july/mpr-july-2026-charts-slides-and-data.zip" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2027 ], "view": "c=GBR&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "BOE" }, { "id": "gbr_boe_inflation", "iso3": "GBR", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "RPIX, four-quarter % change in Q4", "headline": { "ru": "Великобритания: Банк Англии в мае 2021 года ждал инфляцию 2,0% на 2022 год — вышло 10,7%", "en": "UK: in May 2021 the Bank of England expected inflation of 2.0% for 2022; the outcome was 10.7%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Великобритания: инфляция — прогнозы Банка Англии и факт", "en": "UK: inflation — BoE forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Великобритания · инфляция (Банк Англии)", "en": "UK · inflation (BoE)" }, "note": { "ru": "110 прогнозов (1997–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 63 случаях, ниже — в 47; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,23 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в мае 2021: ждали на 2022 год 2,0%, вышло 10,7%. Сильнее всего переоценили в феврале 2014: ждали на 2015 год 1,8%, вышло 0,1%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 110 releases (1997–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 63 times, below 47; median error +0.23 pp. The largest under-forecast in May 2021: 2.0% expected for 2022, the outcome was 10.7%. The largest over-forecast in February 2014: 1.8% expected for 2015, the outcome was 0.1%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "1997": 2.8, "1998": 2.5, "1999": 2.2, "2000": 2.1, "2001": 2.0, "2002": 2.6, "2003": 2.6, "2004": 2.3, "2005": 2.3, "2006": 2.7, "2007": 2.1, "2008": 3.9, "2009": 2.1, "2010": 3.4, "2011": 4.6, "2012": 2.7, "2013": 2.1, "2014": 0.9, "2015": 0.1, "2016": 1.2, "2017": 3.0, "2018": 2.3, "2019": 1.4, "2020": 0.5, "2021": 4.9, "2022": 10.7, "2023": 4.2, "2024": 2.5, "2025": 3.4 }, "src": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?format=csv&uri=/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/cdkq/mm23" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 1997", "en": "BoE, Nov 1997" }, "year": 1997, "published": "1997-11-12", "values": { "1997": 2.6, "1998": 2.19, "1999": 2.42 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20120728223653id_/http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/rpixinternet.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 2003", "en": "BoE, Nov 2003" }, "year": 2003, "published": "2003-11-12", "values": { "2003": 2.72, "2004": 2.61, "2005": 2.65 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20120728223653id_/http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/rpixinternet.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 2009", "en": "BoE, Nov 2009" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009-11-11", "values": { "2009": 1.9, "2010": 1.6, "2011": 1.6, "2012": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2026/july/mpr-july-2026-charts-slides-and-data.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 2014", "en": "BoE, Nov 2014" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-11-12", "values": { "2014": 1.2, "2015": 1.4, "2016": 1.8, "2017": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2026/july/mpr-july-2026-charts-slides-and-data.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, нояб. 2020", "en": "BoE, Nov 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-11-05", "values": { "2020": 0.6, "2021": 2.1, "2022": 2.0, "2023": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2026/july/mpr-july-2026-charts-slides-and-data.zip" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Англии, июль 2026", "en": "BoE, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07-30", "values": { "2026": 3.2, "2027": 2.1, "2028": 1.9 }, "src": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2026/july/mpr-july-2026-charts-slides-and-data.zip" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2027 ], "view": "c=GBR&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "BOE" }, { "id": "jpn_boj_gdp_growth", "iso3": "JPN", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "real GDP, fiscal-year % change (FY from April of target_year)", "headline": { "ru": "Япония: центробанк в апреле 2007 года ждал рост ВВП 2,1% на 2008/09 финансовый год — вышло −3,3%", "en": "Japan: in April 2007 the Bank of Japan expected GDP growth of 2.1% for fiscal 2008/09; the outcome was −3.3%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Япония: рост ВВП — прогнозы Банка Японии и факт", "en": "Japan: GDP growth — BoJ forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Япония · рост ВВП (Банк Японии)", "en": "Japan · GDP growth (BoJ)" }, "note": { "ru": "62 прогноза (2001–2024) на следующий финансовый год (апрель–март): факт выше прогноза в 16 случаях, ниже — в 46; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,80 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в январе 2020: ждали на 2021/22 финансовый год 1,1%, вышло 3,8%. Сильнее всего переоценили в апреле 2007: ждали на 2008/09 финансовый год 2,1%, вышло −3,3%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 62 releases (2001–2024) for the next fiscal year (April–March): the outcome above the forecast 16 times, below 46; median error −0.80 pp. The largest under-forecast in January 2020: 1.1% expected for fiscal 2021/22, the outcome was 3.8%. The largest over-forecast in April 2007: 2.1% expected for fiscal 2008/09, the outcome was −3.3%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "1999": 0.7, "2000": 2.8, "2001": -0.8, "2002": 0.8, "2003": 1.9, "2004": 1.6, "2005": 2.3, "2006": 1.5, "2007": 1.2, "2008": -3.3, "2009": -3.1, "2010": 3.4, "2011": 0.5, "2012": 0.8, "2013": 2.8, "2014": 0.3, "2015": 1.8, "2016": 0.6, "2017": 1.8, "2018": 0.6, "2019": -0.9, "2020": -3.7, "2021": 3.8, "2022": 1.5, "2023": 0.1, "2024": 0.7, "2025": 0.9 }, "src": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/data/data_list/sokuhou/files/2026/qe262/tables/ritu-jfy2621.csv" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, окт. 2000", "en": "BoJ, Oct 2000" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2000-10-31", "values": { "2000": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor0010.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, окт. 2005", "en": "BoJ, Oct 2005" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2005-10-31", "values": { "2005": 2.2, "2006": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/data/gor0510.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, окт. 2010", "en": "BoJ, Oct 2010" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2010-10-28", "values": { "2010": 2.1, "2011": 1.8, "2012": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1010a.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, нояб. 2016", "en": "BoJ, Nov 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-11-01", "values": { "2016": 1.0, "2017": 1.3, "2018": 0.9 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1610a.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, окт. 2021", "en": "BoJ, Oct 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-10-28", "values": { "2021": 3.4, "2022": 2.9, "2023": 1.3 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor2110a.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, июль 2026", "en": "BoJ, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07-31", "values": { "2026": 0.6, "2027": 0.8, "2028": 0.8 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor2607a.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2027 ], "view": "c=JPN&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "BOJ" }, { "id": "jpn_boj_inflation", "iso3": "JPN", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "CPI less fresh food, fiscal-year average % change (FY from April of target_year)", "headline": { "ru": "Япония: центробанк в апреле 2008 года ждал инфляцию 1,0% на 2009/10 финансовый год — вышло −1,6%", "en": "Japan: in April 2008 the Bank of Japan expected inflation of 1.0% for fiscal 2009/10; the outcome was −1.6%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Япония: инфляция — прогнозы Банка Японии и факт", "en": "Japan: inflation — BoJ forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Япония · инфляция (Банк Японии)", "en": "Japan · inflation (BoJ)" }, "note": { "ru": "62 прогноза (2001–2024) на следующий финансовый год (апрель–март): факт выше прогноза в 23 случаях, ниже — в 39; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,22 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в январе 2021: ждали на 2022/23 финансовый год 0,7%, вышло 3,0%. Сильнее всего переоценили в апреле 2008: ждали на 2009/10 финансовый год 1,0%, вышло −1,6%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 62 releases (2001–2024) for the next fiscal year (April–March): the outcome above the forecast 23 times, below 39; median error −0.22 pp. The largest under-forecast in January 2021: 0.7% expected for fiscal 2022/23, the outcome was 3.0%. The largest over-forecast in April 2008: 1.0% expected for fiscal 2009/10, the outcome was −1.6%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "1999": -0.1, "2000": -0.4, "2001": -0.8, "2002": -0.8, "2003": -0.2, "2004": -0.2, "2005": 0.1, "2006": 0.1, "2007": 0.3, "2008": 1.2, "2009": -1.6, "2010": -0.8, "2011": 0.0, "2012": -0.2, "2013": 0.8, "2014": 2.8, "2015": 0.0, "2016": -0.2, "2017": 0.7, "2018": 0.8, "2019": 0.6, "2020": -0.4, "2021": 0.1, "2022": 3.0, "2023": 2.8, "2024": 2.7, "2025": 2.7 }, "src": "https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/file-download?statInfId=000032103955&fileKind=1" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, окт. 2000", "en": "BoJ, Oct 2000" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2000-10-31", "values": { "2000": -0.3 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor0010.htm" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, окт. 2005", "en": "BoJ, Oct 2005" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2005-10-31", "values": { "2005": 0.1, "2006": 0.5 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/data/gor0510.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, окт. 2010", "en": "BoJ, Oct 2010" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2010-10-28", "values": { "2010": -0.4, "2011": 0.1, "2012": 0.6 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1010a.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, нояб. 2016", "en": "BoJ, Nov 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-11-01", "values": { "2016": -0.1, "2017": 1.5, "2018": 1.7 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor1610a.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, окт. 2021", "en": "BoJ, Oct 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-10-28", "values": { "2021": 0.0, "2022": 0.9, "2023": 1.0 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor2110a.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк Японии, июль 2026", "en": "BoJ, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07-31", "values": { "2026": 2.5, "2027": 2.4, "2028": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor2607a.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2027 ], "view": "c=JPN&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "BOJ" }, { "id": "rus_cbr_gdp_growth", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "real GDP, annual % change", "headline": { "ru": "Россия: центробанк в июле 2022 года ждал рост ВВП −2,5% на 2023 год — вышло 4,1%", "en": "Russia: in July 2022 the Bank of Russia expected GDP growth of −2.5% for 2023; the outcome was 4.1%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: рост ВВП — прогнозы Банка России и факт", "en": "Russia: GDP growth — Bank of Russia forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · рост ВВП (Банк России)", "en": "Russia · GDP growth (Bank of Russia)" }, "note": { "ru": "33 прогноза (2015–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 20 случаях, ниже — в 13; обычно факт выше прогноза на 1,05 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в июле 2022: ждали на 2023 год −2,5%, вышло 4,1%. Сильнее всего переоценили в марте 2019: ждали на 2020 год 2,0%, вышло −2,7%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 33 releases (2015–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 20 times, below 13; median error +1.05 pp. The largest under-forecast in July 2022: −2.5% expected for 2023, the outcome was 4.1%. The largest over-forecast in March 2019: 2.0% expected for 2020, the outcome was −2.7%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2012": 4.0, "2013": 1.8, "2014": 0.7, "2015": -2.0, "2016": 0.2, "2017": 1.8, "2018": 2.8, "2019": 2.2, "2020": -2.7, "2021": 5.9, "2022": -1.4, "2023": 4.1, "2024": 4.9, "2025": 1.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260610171843id_/https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/VVP_god_s1995-2025.xlsx" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, сент. 2015", "en": "Bank of Russia, Sep 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-09-15", "values": { "2015": -4.15, "2016": -0.75, "2017": 0.5, "2018": 2.5 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/7845/2015_03_ddcp.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, дек. 2017", "en": "Bank of Russia, Dec 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-12-18", "values": { "2017": 1.95, "2018": 1.75, "2019": 1.25, "2020": 1.75 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/7828/2017_04_ddcp.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, дек. 2019", "en": "Bank of Russia, Dec 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-13", "values": { "2019": 1.05, "2020": 1.75, "2021": 2.0, "2022": 2.5 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/25585/forecast_191213.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, окт. 2022", "en": "Bank of Russia, Oct 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-10-28", "values": { "2022": -3.25, "2023": -2.5, "2024": 2.0, "2025": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/43430/forecast_221028.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, окт. 2024", "en": "Bank of Russia, Oct 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-10-25", "values": { "2024": 3.75, "2025": 1.0, "2026": 1.5, "2027": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/166586/forecast_241025.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, июль 2026", "en": "Bank of Russia, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07-24", "values": { "2026": 0.5, "2027": 2.0, "2028": 2.0, "2029": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/194258/forecast_260724.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2013, 2027 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "CBR" }, { "id": "rus_cbr_inflation", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "CPI, % change Dec on Dec", "headline": { "ru": "Россия: центробанк в феврале 2021 года ждал инфляцию 4,0% на 2022 год — вышло 11,9%", "en": "Russia: in February 2021 the Bank of Russia expected inflation of 4.0% for 2022; the outcome was 11.9%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: инфляция — прогнозы Банка России и факт", "en": "Russia: inflation — Bank of Russia forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · инфляция (Банк России)", "en": "Russia · inflation (Bank of Russia)" }, "note": { "ru": "33 прогноза (2015–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 28 случаях, ниже — в 5; обычно факт выше прогноза на 1,42 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в феврале 2021: ждали на 2022 год 4,0%, вышло 11,9%. Сильнее всего переоценили в декабре 2016: ждали на 2017 год 4,0%, вышло 2,5%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 33 releases (2015–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 28 times, below 5; median error +1.42 pp. The largest under-forecast in February 2021: 4.0% expected for 2022, the outcome was 11.9%. The largest over-forecast in December 2016: 4.0% expected for 2017, the outcome was 2.5%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2013": 6.47, "2014": 11.35, "2015": 12.9, "2016": 5.4, "2017": 2.5, "2018": 4.3, "2019": 3.0, "2020": 4.9, "2021": 8.39, "2022": 11.94, "2023": 7.42, "2024": 9.52, "2025": 5.59 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/infl/?UniDbQuery.Posted=True&UniDbQuery.From=01.01.2012&UniDbQuery.To=31.12.2025" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, сент. 2015", "en": "Bank of Russia, Sep 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-09-15", "values": { "2015": 12.5, "2016": 6.0, "2017": 4.0, "2018": 4.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/7845/2015_03_ddcp.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, дек. 2017", "en": "Bank of Russia, Dec 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-12-18", "values": { "2017": 2.5, "2018": 3.75, "2019": 4.0, "2020": 4.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/7828/2017_04_ddcp.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, дек. 2019", "en": "Bank of Russia, Dec 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-13", "values": { "2019": 3.05, "2020": 3.75, "2021": 4.0, "2022": 4.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/25585/forecast_191213.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, окт. 2022", "en": "Bank of Russia, Oct 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-10-28", "values": { "2022": 12.5, "2023": 6.0, "2024": 4.0, "2025": 4.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/43430/forecast_221028.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, окт. 2024", "en": "Bank of Russia, Oct 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-10-25", "values": { "2024": 8.25, "2025": 4.75, "2026": 4.0, "2027": 4.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/166586/forecast_241025.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, июль 2026", "en": "Bank of Russia, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07-24", "values": { "2026": 6.5, "2027": 4.0, "2028": 4.0, "2029": 4.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/194258/forecast_260724.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2013, 2027 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "CBR" }, { "id": "rus_cbr_policy_rate", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "economy", "metric": "policy_rate", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "key rate, calendar-year average, % p.a.", "headline": { "ru": "Россия: центробанк в феврале 2023 года ждал ставку 7,0% на 2024 год — вышло 17,5%", "en": "Russia: in February 2023 the Bank of Russia expected the policy rate of 7.0% for 2024; the outcome was 17.5%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: ключевая ставка — прогнозы Банка России и факт", "en": "Russia: the policy rate — Bank of Russia forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · ключевая ставка (Банк России)", "en": "Russia · the policy rate (Bank of Russia)" }, "note": { "ru": "16 прогнозов (2021–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 15 случаях, ниже — в 1; обычно факт выше прогноза на 4,15 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в феврале 2023: ждали на 2024 год 7,0%, вышло 17,5%. Сильнее всего переоценили в апреле 2022: ждали на 2023 год 10,0%, вышло 9,9%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 16 releases (2021–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 15 times, below 1; median error +4.15 pp. The largest under-forecast in February 2023: 7.0% expected for 2024, the outcome was 17.5%. The largest over-forecast in April 2022: 10.0% expected for 2023, the outcome was 9.9%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2014": 7.88, "2015": 12.64, "2016": 10.58, "2017": 9.13, "2018": 7.42, "2019": 7.33, "2020": 5.05, "2021": 5.75, "2022": 10.62, "2023": 9.95, "2024": 17.5, "2025": 19.18 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/KeyRate/?UniDbQuery.Posted=True&UniDbQuery.From=13.09.2013&UniDbQuery.To=31.12.2025" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, окт. 2021", "en": "Bank of Russia, Oct 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-10-22", "values": { "2021": 5.75, "2022": 7.8, "2023": 6.0, "2024": 5.5 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/38986/forecast_211022.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, окт. 2022", "en": "Bank of Russia, Oct 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-10-28", "values": { "2022": 10.6, "2023": 7.5, "2024": 6.5, "2025": 5.5 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/43430/forecast_221028.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, окт. 2023", "en": "Bank of Russia, Oct 2023" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-10-27", "values": { "2023": 9.9, "2024": 13.5, "2025": 8.0, "2026": 6.5 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/46535/forecast_231027.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, окт. 2024", "en": "Bank of Russia, Oct 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-10-25", "values": { "2024": 17.5, "2025": 18.5, "2026": 12.5, "2027": 8.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/166586/forecast_241025.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, окт. 2025", "en": "Bank of Russia, Oct 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-10-24", "values": { "2025": 19.2, "2026": 14.0, "2027": 8.0, "2028": 8.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/184551/forecast_251024.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Банк России, июль 2026", "en": "Bank of Russia, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07-24", "values": { "2026": 14.55, "2027": 11.5, "2028": 8.5, "2029": 8.0 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/194258/forecast_260724.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2019, 2027 ], "src_key": "cb", "bank": "CBR" }, { "id": "tur_cbrt_inflation", "iso3": "TUR", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "CPI, % change Dec on Dec", "headline": { "ru": "Турция: центробанк в январе 2021 года ждал инфляцию 7,0% на 2022 год — вышло 64,3%", "en": "Türkiye: in January 2021 the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye expected inflation of 7.0% for 2022; the outcome was 64.3%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Турция: инфляция — прогнозы Центрального банка Турции и факт", "en": "Türkiye: inflation — CBRT forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Турция · инфляция (ЦБ Турции)", "en": "Türkiye · inflation (CBRT)" }, "note": { "ru": "44 прогноза (2014–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 43 случаях, ниже — в 1; обычно факт выше прогноза на 10,64 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в январе 2021: ждали на 2022 год 7,0%, вышло 64,3%. Сильнее всего переоценили в октябре 2018: ждали на 2019 год 15,2%, вышло 11,8%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 44 releases (2014–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 43 times, below 1; median error +10.64 pp. The largest under-forecast in January 2021: 7.0% expected for 2022, the outcome was 64.3%. The largest over-forecast in October 2018: 15.2% expected for 2019, the outcome was 11.8%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2005": 7.72, "2006": 9.65, "2007": 8.39, "2008": 10.06, "2009": 6.53, "2010": 6.4, "2011": 10.45, "2012": 6.16, "2013": 7.4, "2014": 8.17, "2015": 8.81, "2016": 8.53, "2017": 11.92, "2018": 20.3, "2019": 11.84, "2020": 14.6, "2021": 36.08, "2022": 64.27, "2023": 64.77, "2024": 44.38, "2025": 30.89 }, "src": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Statistics/Inflation+Data" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Турции, окт. 2014", "en": "CBRT, Oct 2014" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-10-31", "values": { "2014": 8.9, "2015": 6.1 }, "src": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/994054c0-7dad-4593-b449-b50767883a96/1c14-4.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Турции, окт. 2016", "en": "CBRT, Oct 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-10-27", "values": { "2016": 7.5, "2017": 6.5 }, "src": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/33f86909-6c20-458c-a2bd-2dfa4e85b2e1/1c16-4.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Турции, окт. 2019", "en": "CBRT, Oct 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-10-31", "values": { "2019": 12.0, "2020": 8.2, "2021": 5.4 }, "src": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/6c3906b4-656f-44a2-bd81-5c1eeb7fa5a5/1c19-4.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Турции, окт. 2021", "en": "CBRT, Oct 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-10-28", "values": { "2021": 18.4, "2022": 11.8, "2023": 7.0 }, "src": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/c882814a-2297-4132-8fe8-6419c3867769/1c2021_iv.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Турции, нояб. 2024", "en": "CBRT, Nov 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-11-08", "values": { "2024": 44.0, "2025": 21.0, "2026": 12.0 }, "src": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/92c0ad99-814e-49ad-9dd1-45e5232ee749/Inflation+Report2024iv.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЦБ Турции, авг. 2026", "en": "CBRT, Aug 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-08-13", "values": { "2026": 28.0, "2027": 15.0, "2028": 9.0 }, "src": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/f3468319-92cc-4e0c-adff-203cb2a71da2/Overview.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2012, 2027 ], "view": "c=TUR&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "CBRT" }, { "id": "emu_ecb_gdp_growth", "iso3": null, "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "real GDP, annual % change (seasonally and working-day adjusted)", "headline": { "ru": "Еврозона: ЕЦБ в марте 2008 года ждал рост ВВП 1,8% на 2009 год — вышло −4,4%", "en": "Euro area: in March 2008 the ECB expected GDP growth of 1.8% for 2009; the outcome was −4.4%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Еврозона: рост ВВП — прогнозы ЕЦБ и факт", "en": "Euro area: GDP growth — ECB forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Еврозона · рост ВВП (ЕЦБ)", "en": "Euro area · GDP growth (ECB)" }, "note": { "ru": "83 прогноза (2004–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 39 случаях, ниже — в 44; обычно факт почти совпадал с прогнозом. Сильнее всего недооценили в марте 2020: ждали на 2021 год 1,3%, вышло 6,4%. Сильнее всего переоценили в марте 2019: ждали на 2020 год 1,6%, вышло −6,1%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 83 releases (2004–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 39 times, below 44; median error 0.00 pp. The largest under-forecast in March 2020: 1.3% expected for 2021, the outcome was 6.4%. The largest over-forecast in March 2019: 1.6% expected for 2020, the outcome was −6.1%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2000": 4.0, "2001": 2.2, "2002": 0.9, "2003": 0.7, "2004": 2.0, "2005": 1.9, "2006": 3.4, "2007": 3.0, "2008": 0.3, "2009": -4.4, "2010": 2.0, "2011": 1.8, "2012": -0.9, "2013": -0.1, "2014": 1.5, "2015": 2.0, "2016": 1.8, "2017": 2.8, "2018": 1.8, "2019": 1.7, "2020": -6.1, "2021": 6.4, "2022": 3.7, "2023": 0.5, "2024": 1.1, "2025": 1.3 }, "src": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/namq_10_gdp?format=JSON&geo=EA20&unit=CLV10_MEUR&na_item=B1GQ&s_adj=SCA" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2004", "en": "ECB, Dec 2004" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2004-12-02", "values": { "2004": 1.8, "2005": 1.9, "2006": 2.2 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecbstaffprojections200412en.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2008", "en": "ECB, Dec 2008" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2008-12-04", "values": { "2008": 1.0, "2009": -0.5, "2010": 1.0 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/eurosystemstaffprojections200812en.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2013", "en": "ECB, Dec 2013" }, "year": 2013, "published": "2013-12-05", "values": { "2013": -0.4, "2014": 1.1, "2015": 1.5 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/eurosystemstaffprojections201312en.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2017", "en": "ECB, Dec 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-12-14", "values": { "2017": 2.4, "2018": 2.3, "2019": 1.9, "2020": 1.7 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.projections201712_eurosystemstaff.en.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2022", "en": "ECB, Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-15", "values": { "2022": 3.4, "2023": 0.5, "2024": 1.9, "2025": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202212_eurosystemstaff~6c1855c75b.en.html" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, сент. 2026", "en": "ECB, Sep 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-09-10", "values": { "2026": 0.9, "2027": 1.4, "2028": 1.5 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.en.html" } ], "xRange": [ 2002, 2027 ], "src_key": "cb", "bank": "ECB" }, { "id": "emu_ecb_inflation", "iso3": null, "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "HICP, annual average % change", "headline": { "ru": "Еврозона: ЕЦБ в марте 2021 года ждал инфляцию 1,2% на 2022 год — вышло 8,4%", "en": "Euro area: in March 2021 the ECB expected inflation of 1.2% for 2022; the outcome was 8.4%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Еврозона: инфляция — прогнозы ЕЦБ и факт", "en": "Euro area: inflation — ECB forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Еврозона · инфляция (ЕЦБ)", "en": "Euro area · inflation (ECB)" }, "note": { "ru": "83 прогноза (2004–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 43 случаях, ниже — в 40; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,10 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в марте 2021: ждали на 2022 год 1,2%, вышло 8,4%. Сильнее всего переоценили в сентябре 2008: ждали на 2009 год 2,6%, вышло 0,3%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 83 releases (2004–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 43 times, below 40; median error +0.10 pp. The largest under-forecast in March 2021: 1.2% expected for 2022, the outcome was 8.4%. The largest over-forecast in September 2008: 2.6% expected for 2009, the outcome was 0.3%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2000": 2.1, "2001": 2.3, "2002": 2.3, "2003": 2.1, "2004": 2.1, "2005": 2.2, "2006": 2.2, "2007": 2.1, "2008": 3.3, "2009": 0.3, "2010": 1.6, "2011": 2.7, "2012": 2.5, "2013": 1.4, "2014": 0.4, "2015": 0.2, "2016": 0.2, "2017": 1.5, "2018": 1.8, "2019": 1.2, "2020": 0.3, "2021": 2.6, "2022": 8.4, "2023": 5.4, "2024": 2.4, "2025": 2.1 }, "src": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/prc_hicp_aind?format=JSON&geo=EA&unit=RCH_A_AVG&coicop=CP00" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2004", "en": "ECB, Dec 2004" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2004-12-02", "values": { "2004": 2.2, "2005": 2.0, "2006": 1.6 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecbstaffprojections200412en.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2008", "en": "ECB, Dec 2008" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2008-12-04", "values": { "2008": 3.3, "2009": 1.4, "2010": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/eurosystemstaffprojections200812en.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2013", "en": "ECB, Dec 2013" }, "year": 2013, "published": "2013-12-05", "values": { "2013": 1.4, "2014": 1.1, "2015": 1.3 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/eurosystemstaffprojections201312en.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2017", "en": "ECB, Dec 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-12-14", "values": { "2017": 1.5, "2018": 1.4, "2019": 1.5, "2020": 1.7 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.projections201712_eurosystemstaff.en.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, дек. 2022", "en": "ECB, Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-15", "values": { "2022": 8.4, "2023": 6.3, "2024": 3.4, "2025": 2.3 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202212_eurosystemstaff~6c1855c75b.en.html" }, { "label": { "ru": "ЕЦБ, сент. 2026", "en": "ECB, Sep 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-09-10", "values": { "2026": 3.0, "2027": 2.5, "2028": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.en.html" } ], "xRange": [ 2002, 2027 ], "src_key": "cb", "bank": "ECB" }, { "id": "aus_rba_gdp_growth", "iso3": "AUS", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "real GDP, year-ended % change in the December quarter", "headline": { "ru": "Австралия: центробанк в ноябре 2021 года ждал рост ВВП 5,5% на 2022 год — вышло 3,3%", "en": "Australia: in November 2021 the Reserve Bank of Australia expected GDP growth of 5.5% for 2022; the outcome was 3.3%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Австралия: рост ВВП — прогнозы Резервного банка Австралии и факт", "en": "Australia: GDP growth — RBA forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Австралия · рост ВВП (РБА)", "en": "Australia · GDP growth (RBA)" }, "note": { "ru": "67 прогнозов (2008–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 11 случаях, ниже — в 56; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,50 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в феврале 2020: ждали на 2021 год 3,0%, вышло 4,9%. Сильнее всего переоценили в августе 2019: ждали на 2020 год 2,8%, вышло −0,4%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 67 releases (2008–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 11 times, below 56; median error −0.50 pp. The largest under-forecast in February 2020: 3.0% expected for 2021, the outcome was 4.9%. The largest over-forecast in August 2019: 2.8% expected for 2020, the outcome was −0.4%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2006": 3.1, "2007": 3.6, "2008": 1.7, "2009": 2.8, "2010": 2.6, "2011": 3.5, "2012": 2.8, "2013": 2.5, "2014": 2.1, "2015": 2.7, "2016": 2.8, "2017": 2.3, "2018": 2.4, "2019": 2.2, "2020": -0.4, "2021": 4.9, "2022": 3.3, "2023": 1.3, "2024": 1.2, "2025": 2.6 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product/jun-2026/5206001_Key_Aggregates.xlsx" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2008", "en": "RBA, Nov 2008" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2008-11-14", "values": { "2008": 1.5, "2009": 1.75, "2010": 2.5 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2008/nov/tables.html" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2012", "en": "RBA, Nov 2012" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2012-11-09", "values": { "2012": 3.5, "2013": 2.75, "2014": 3.0 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2012/nov/tables.html" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2015", "en": "RBA, Nov 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-11-06", "values": { "2015": 2.25, "2016": 3.0, "2017": 3.5 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2015/nov/tables.html" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2019", "en": "RBA, Nov 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-11-08", "values": { "2019": 2.3, "2020": 2.8, "2021": 3.1 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/xls/smp-forecast-archive.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2022", "en": "RBA, Nov 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-11-04", "values": { "2022": 2.9, "2023": 1.4, "2024": 1.6 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/xls/smp-forecast-archive.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, авг. 2026", "en": "RBA, Aug 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-08-11", "values": { "2026": 1.4, "2027": 1.6, "2028": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/xls/smp-forecast-archive.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2006, 2027 ], "view": "c=AUS&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "RBA" }, { "id": "aus_rba_inflation", "iso3": "AUS", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "CPI, year-ended % change in the December quarter", "headline": { "ru": "Австралия: центробанк в феврале 2021 года ждал инфляцию 1,5% на 2022 год — вышло 7,8%", "en": "Australia: in February 2021 the Reserve Bank of Australia expected inflation of 1.5% for 2022; the outcome was 7.8%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Австралия: инфляция — прогнозы Резервного банка Австралии и факт", "en": "Australia: inflation — RBA forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Австралия · инфляция (РБА)", "en": "Australia · inflation (RBA)" }, "note": { "ru": "72 прогноза (2007–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 28 случаях, ниже — в 44; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,33 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в феврале 2021: ждали на 2022 год 1,5%, вышло 7,8%. Сильнее всего переоценили в ноябре 2008: ждали на 2009 год 3,5%, вышло 2,1%. Где банк публиковал только диапазон, взята его середина. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 72 releases (2007–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 28 times, below 44; median error −0.33 pp. The largest under-forecast in February 2021: 1.5% expected for 2022, the outcome was 7.8%. The largest over-forecast in November 2008: 3.5% expected for 2009, the outcome was 2.1%. Where the bank published only a range, its midpoint is used. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2006": 3.3, "2007": 2.9, "2008": 3.7, "2009": 2.1, "2010": 2.8, "2011": 3.0, "2012": 2.2, "2013": 2.7, "2014": 1.7, "2015": 1.7, "2016": 1.5, "2017": 1.9, "2018": 1.8, "2019": 1.8, "2020": 0.9, "2021": 3.5, "2022": 7.8, "2023": 4.1, "2024": 2.4, "2025": 3.6 }, "src": "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/aug-2026/6401017.xlsx" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2007", "en": "RBA, Nov 2007" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2007-11-08", "values": { "2007": 2.75, "2008": 3.0, "2009": 2.875 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2007/nov/tables.html" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2011", "en": "RBA, Nov 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-11-04", "values": { "2011": 3.25, "2012": 3.25, "2013": 2.75 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2011/nov/tables.html" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2015", "en": "RBA, Nov 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-11-06", "values": { "2015": 1.75, "2016": 2.5, "2017": 2.5 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2015/nov/tables.html" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2018", "en": "RBA, Nov 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-11-09", "values": { "2018": 2.0, "2019": 2.3, "2020": 2.4 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/xls/smp-forecast-archive.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, нояб. 2022", "en": "RBA, Nov 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-11-04", "values": { "2022": 8.0, "2023": 4.7, "2024": 3.2 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/xls/smp-forecast-archive.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБА, авг. 2026", "en": "RBA, Aug 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-08-11", "values": { "2026": 3.6, "2027": 2.6, "2028": 2.4 }, "src": "https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/xls/smp-forecast-archive.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2027 ], "view": "c=AUS&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "RBA" }, { "id": "ind_rbi_gdp_growth", "iso3": "IND", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "real GVA at basic prices, fiscal-year % change (FY from April of target_year)", "headline": { "ru": "Индия: центробанк в феврале 2019 года ждал рост ВВП 7,4% на 2019/20 финансовый год — вышло 3,9%", "en": "India: in February 2019 the Reserve Bank of India expected GDP growth of 7.4% for fiscal 2019/20; the outcome was 3.9%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 0, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Индия: рост ВВП — прогнозы Резервного банка Индии и факт", "en": "India: GDP growth — RBI forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Индия · рост ВВП (РБИ)", "en": "India · GDP growth (RBI)" }, "note": { "ru": "57 прогнозов (2016–2025) на финансовый год, начинающийся в апреле года выпуска: факт выше прогноза в 32 случаях, ниже — в 25; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,20 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в октябре 2020: ждали на 2020/21 финансовый год −9,5%, вышло −5,8%. Сильнее всего переоценили в феврале 2020: ждали на 2020/21 финансовый год 6,0%, вышло −5,8%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 57 releases (2016–2025) for the fiscal year starting in April of the release year: the outcome above the forecast 32 times, below 25; median error +0.20 pp. The largest under-forecast in October 2020: −9.5% expected for fiscal 2020/21, the outcome was −5.8%. The largest over-forecast in February 2020: 6.0% expected for fiscal 2020/21, the outcome was −5.8%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2014": 7.2, "2015": 8.0, "2016": 8.0, "2017": 6.2, "2018": 5.8, "2019": 3.9, "2020": -5.8, "2021": 9.7, "2022": 7.6, "2023": 7.3, "2024": 7.2, "2025": 7.8 }, "src": "https://api.mospi.gov.in/api/nas/getNASData?base_year=2011-12&series=Current&frequency_code=Annually&indicator_code=1&format=json" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2016", "en": "RBI, Dec 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-12-07", "values": { "2016": 7.1 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=38818" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2018", "en": "RBI, Dec 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-12-05", "values": { "2018": 7.4 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=45656" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2020", "en": "RBI, Dec 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-12-04", "values": { "2020": -7.5 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=50747" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2022", "en": "RBI, Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-07", "values": { "2022": 6.8 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=54818" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2024", "en": "RBI, Dec 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-12-06", "values": { "2024": 6.6 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=59244" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, авг. 2026", "en": "RBI, Aug 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-08-05", "values": { "2026": 6.7 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63287" } ], "xRange": [ 2014, 2028 ], "view": "c=IND&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "RBI" }, { "id": "ind_rbi_inflation", "iso3": "IND", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "CPI-Combined, average of year-on-year rates over the fiscal year (FY from April of target_year)", "headline": { "ru": "Индия: центробанк в феврале 2022 года ждал инфляцию 4,5% на 2022/23 финансовый год — вышло 6,7%", "en": "India: in February 2022 the Reserve Bank of India expected inflation of 4.5% for fiscal 2022/23; the outcome was 6.7%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 0, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Индия: инфляция — прогнозы Резервного банка Индии и факт", "en": "India: inflation — RBI forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Индия · инфляция (РБИ)", "en": "India · inflation (RBI)" }, "note": { "ru": "26 прогнозов (2021–2025) на финансовый год, начинающийся в апреле года выпуска: факт выше прогноза в 13 случаях, ниже — в 13; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,05 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в феврале 2022: ждали на 2022/23 финансовый год 4,5%, вышло 6,7%. Сильнее всего переоценили в феврале 2025: ждали на 2025/26 финансовый год 4,2%, вышло 2,1%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 26 releases (2021–2025) for the fiscal year starting in April of the release year: the outcome above the forecast 13 times, below 13; median error +0.05 pp. The largest under-forecast in February 2022: 4.5% expected for fiscal 2022/23, the outcome was 6.7%. The largest over-forecast in February 2025: 4.2% expected for fiscal 2025/26, the outcome was 2.1%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2014": 6.0, "2015": 4.9, "2016": 4.5, "2017": 3.6, "2018": 3.4, "2019": 4.8, "2021": 5.5, "2022": 6.7, "2023": 5.4, "2024": 4.6, "2025": 2.1 }, "src": "https://api.mospi.gov.in/api/cpi/getCPIIndex?base_year=2012&series=Current&year=2025&state_code=99&group_code=0§or_code=3&format=json" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2021", "en": "RBI, Dec 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-12-08", "values": { "2021": 5.3 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=52687" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2022", "en": "RBI, Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-07", "values": { "2022": 6.7 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=54818" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2023", "en": "RBI, Dec 2023" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-12-08", "values": { "2023": 5.4 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=56888" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2024", "en": "RBI, Dec 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-12-06", "values": { "2024": 4.8 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=59244" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, дек. 2025", "en": "RBI, Dec 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-12-05", "values": { "2025": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=61749" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБИ, авг. 2026", "en": "RBI, Aug 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-08-05", "values": { "2026": 5.0 }, "src": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63287" } ], "xRange": [ 2019, 2028 ], "view": "c=IND&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "RBI" }, { "id": "nzl_rbnz_gdp_growth", "iso3": "NZL", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "real GDP (production), annual % change in the December quarter", "headline": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: центробанк в августе 2023 года ждал рост ВВП 1,6% на 2024 год — вышло −1,6%", "en": "New Zealand: in August 2023 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected GDP growth of 1.6% for 2024; the outcome was −1.6%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: рост ВВП — прогнозы Резервного банка Новой Зеландии и факт", "en": "New Zealand: GDP growth — RBNZ forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия · рост ВВП (РБНЗ)", "en": "New Zealand · GDP growth (RBNZ)" }, "note": { "ru": "25 прогнозов (2018–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 5 случаях, ниже — в 20; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,90 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в ноябре 2022: ждали на 2023 год −0,4%, вышло 1,5%. Сильнее всего переоценили в августе 2023: ждали на 2024 год 1,6%, вышло −1,6%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 25 releases (2018–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 5 times, below 20; median error −0.90 pp. The largest under-forecast in November 2022: −0.4% expected for 2023, the outcome was 1.5%. The largest over-forecast in August 2023: 1.6% expected for 2024, the outcome was −1.6%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2000": 2.1, "2001": 4.0, "2002": 4.9, "2003": 4.6, "2004": 3.3, "2005": 2.9, "2006": 3.5, "2007": 3.2, "2008": -1.6, "2009": 0.8, "2010": 0.2, "2011": 3.2, "2012": 2.7, "2013": 1.7, "2014": 5.0, "2015": 3.1, "2016": 3.4, "2017": 3.6, "2018": 3.5, "2019": 2.8, "2020": 1.6, "2021": 2.4, "2022": 3.0, "2023": 1.5, "2024": -1.6, "2025": 1.5 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260902232900id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2026/sep-2926/mpssep26-data.xlsx" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2018", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-11-08", "values": { "2018": 2.7, "2019": 3.4, "2020": 3.1 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250214204007id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2018/mpsnov18-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2019", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-11-13", "values": { "2019": 2.0, "2020": 2.8, "2021": 2.4 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250214043428id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2019/mpsnov19-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2021", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-11-24", "values": { "2021": 2.5, "2022": 4.0, "2023": 1.3 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240526015454id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2021/mpsnov21-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2022", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-11-23", "values": { "2022": 2.9, "2023": -0.4, "2024": 0.2 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240525042206id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2022/mps-nov-22/mpsnov22-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2024", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-11-27", "values": { "2024": 0.0, "2025": 2.3, "2026": 2.5 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250123035025id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2024/nov-271124gsp/mpsnov24-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2025", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-11-26", "values": { "2025": 1.1, "2026": 2.9, "2027": 3.1 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260128042809id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2025/nov-261125/mpsnov25-data.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2016, 2027 ], "view": "c=NZL&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "RBNZ" }, { "id": "nzl_rbnz_inflation", "iso3": "NZL", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "CPI, annual % change in the December quarter", "headline": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: центробанк в августе 2020 года ждал инфляцию 0,3% на 2021 год — вышло 5,9%", "en": "New Zealand: in August 2020 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected inflation of 0.3% for 2021; the outcome was 5.9%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: инфляция — прогнозы Резервного банка Новой Зеландии и факт", "en": "New Zealand: inflation — RBNZ forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия · инфляция (РБНЗ)", "en": "New Zealand · inflation (RBNZ)" }, "note": { "ru": "25 прогнозов (2018–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 15 случаях, ниже — в 10; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,90 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в августе 2020: ждали на 2021 год 0,3%, вышло 5,9%. Сильнее всего переоценили в феврале 2019: ждали на 2020 год 2,0%, вышло 1,4%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 25 releases (2018–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 15 times, below 10; median error +0.90 pp. The largest under-forecast in August 2020: 0.3% expected for 2021, the outcome was 5.9%. The largest over-forecast in February 2019: 2.0% expected for 2020, the outcome was 1.4%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2000": 4.0, "2001": 1.8, "2002": 2.7, "2003": 1.6, "2004": 2.7, "2005": 3.2, "2006": 2.6, "2007": 3.2, "2008": 3.4, "2009": 2.0, "2010": 4.0, "2011": 1.8, "2012": 0.9, "2013": 1.6, "2014": 0.8, "2015": 0.1, "2016": 1.3, "2017": 1.6, "2018": 1.9, "2019": 1.9, "2020": 1.4, "2021": 5.9, "2022": 7.2, "2023": 4.7, "2024": 2.2, "2025": 3.1 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260902232900id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2026/sep-2926/mpssep26-data.xlsx" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2018", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-11-08", "values": { "2018": 2.0, "2019": 1.9, "2020": 2.1 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250214204007id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2018/mpsnov18-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2019", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-11-13", "values": { "2019": 1.6, "2020": 1.9, "2021": 2.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250214043428id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2019/mpsnov19-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2021", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-11-24", "values": { "2021": 5.7, "2022": 3.3, "2023": 2.1 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240526015454id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2021/mpsnov21-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2022", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-11-23", "values": { "2022": 7.5, "2023": 5.0, "2024": 2.6 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240525042206id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2022/mps-nov-22/mpsnov22-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2024", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-11-27", "values": { "2024": 2.1, "2025": 2.4, "2026": 2.1 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250123035025id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2024/nov-271124gsp/mpsnov24-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2025", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-11-26", "values": { "2025": 2.7, "2026": 2.2, "2027": 2.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260128042809id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2025/nov-261125/mpsnov25-data.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2016, 2027 ], "view": "c=NZL&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "RBNZ" }, { "id": "nzl_rbnz_policy_rate", "iso3": "NZL", "section": "economy", "metric": "policy_rate", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "OCR, December-quarter average, %", "headline": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: центробанк в мае 2021 года ждал ставку 0,7% на 2022 год — вышло 3,8%", "en": "New Zealand: in May 2021 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected the policy rate of 0.7% for 2022; the outcome was 3.8%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия: ключевая ставка — прогнозы Резервного банка Новой Зеландии и факт", "en": "New Zealand: the policy rate — RBNZ forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Новая Зеландия · ключевая ставка (РБНЗ)", "en": "New Zealand · the policy rate (RBNZ)" }, "note": { "ru": "21 прогноз (2018–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 6 случаях, ниже — в 15; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,69 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в мае 2021: ждали на 2022 год 0,7%, вышло 3,8%. Сильнее всего переоценили в мае 2024: ждали на 2025 год 5,1%, вышло 2,5%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 21 releases (2018–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 6 times, below 15; median error −0.69 pp. The largest under-forecast in May 2021: 0.7% expected for 2022, the outcome was 3.8%. The largest over-forecast in May 2024: 5.1% expected for 2025, the outcome was 2.5%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2000": 6.5, "2001": 5.0, "2002": 5.75, "2003": 5.0, "2004": 6.43, "2005": 6.99, "2006": 7.25, "2007": 8.25, "2008": 6.33, "2009": 2.5, "2010": 3.0, "2011": 2.5, "2012": 2.5, "2013": 2.5, "2014": 3.5, "2015": 2.69, "2016": 1.86, "2017": 1.75, "2018": 1.75, "2019": 1.0, "2020": 0.25, "2021": 0.58, "2022": 3.78, "2023": 5.5, "2024": 4.63, "2025": 2.46 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260902232900id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2026/sep-2926/mpssep26-data.xlsx" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2018", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-11-08", "values": { "2018": 1.75, "2019": 1.75, "2020": 1.96 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250214204007id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2018/mpsnov18-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2019", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-11-13", "values": { "2019": 0.97, "2020": 0.9, "2021": 1.15 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250214043428id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2019/mpsnov19-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2021", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-11-24", "values": { "2021": 0.59, "2022": 2.14, "2023": 2.56 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240526015454id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2021/mpsnov21-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2022", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-11-23", "values": { "2022": 3.8, "2023": 5.5, "2024": 5.32 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240525042206id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2022/mps-nov-22/mpsnov22-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2024", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-11-27", "values": { "2024": 4.61, "2025": 3.55, "2026": 3.17 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250123035025id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2024/nov-271124gsp/mpsnov24-data.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "РБНЗ, нояб. 2025", "en": "RBNZ, Nov 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-11-26", "values": { "2025": 2.45, "2026": 2.28, "2027": 2.65 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260128042809id_/https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/monetary-policy-statements/2025/nov-261125/mpsnov25-data.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2016, 2027 ], "src_key": "cb", "bank": "RBNZ" }, { "id": "zaf_sarb_gdp_growth", "iso3": "ZAF", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "real GDP, annual % change", "headline": { "ru": "ЮАР: центробанк в июле 2015 года ждал рост ВВП 2,1% на 2016 год — вышло 0,4%", "en": "South Africa: in July 2015 the South African Reserve Bank expected GDP growth of 2.1% for 2016; the outcome was 0.4%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "ЮАР: рост ВВП — прогнозы Резервного банка ЮАР и факт", "en": "South Africa: GDP growth — SARB forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "ЮАР · рост ВВП (Резервный банк ЮАР)", "en": "South Africa · GDP growth (SARB)" }, "note": { "ru": "49 прогнозов (2015–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 11 случаях, ниже — в 38; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,40 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в январе 2020: ждали на 2021 год 1,6%, вышло 4,7%. Сильнее всего переоценили в марте 2019: ждали на 2020 год 1,8%, вышло −6,0%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 49 releases (2015–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 11 times, below 38; median error −0.40 pp. The largest under-forecast in January 2020: 1.6% expected for 2021, the outcome was 4.7%. The largest over-forecast in March 2019: 1.8% expected for 2020, the outcome was −6.0%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2013": 2.3, "2014": 1.7, "2015": 1.2, "2016": 0.4, "2017": 1.2, "2018": 1.5, "2019": 0.3, "2020": -6.0, "2021": 4.7, "2022": 1.9, "2023": 0.7, "2024": 0.5, "2025": 1.1 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2026/september/forecast.pdf" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2015", "en": "SARB, Nov 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-11-19", "values": { "2015": 1.4, "2016": 1.5, "2017": 2.1 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2015/6971/Press-tables-forecast.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2017", "en": "SARB, Nov 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-11-23", "values": { "2017": 0.7, "2018": 1.2, "2019": 1.5 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2017/8095/QPM-Forecast---Press-tables-Nov-2017-MPC.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, сент. 2019", "en": "SARB, Sep 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-09-19", "values": { "2019": 0.6, "2020": 1.5, "2021": 1.8 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2019/9502/Forecast---September-2019-MPC.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2022", "en": "SARB, Nov 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-11-24", "values": { "2022": 1.8, "2023": 1.1, "2024": 1.4, "2025": 1.5 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2022/statement-of-the-monetary-policy-november/Forecast%20November%202022.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2024", "en": "SARB, Nov 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-11-21", "values": { "2024": 1.1, "2025": 1.7, "2026": 1.8, "2027": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2024/november/Forecast%20Report%20MPC%20November%202024.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, сент. 2026", "en": "SARB, Sep 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-09-23", "values": { "2026": 1.2, "2027": 1.7, "2028": 1.9, "2029": 2.0 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2026/september/forecast.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2013, 2027 ], "view": "c=ZAF&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "SARB" }, { "id": "zaf_sarb_inflation", "iso3": "ZAF", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "CPI, annual average % change", "headline": { "ru": "ЮАР: центробанк в июле 2021 года ждал инфляцию 4,2% на 2022 год — вышло 6,9%", "en": "South Africa: in July 2021 the South African Reserve Bank expected inflation of 4.2% for 2022; the outcome was 6.9%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "ЮАР: инфляция — прогнозы Резервного банка ЮАР и факт", "en": "South Africa: inflation — SARB forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "ЮАР · инфляция (Резервный банк ЮАР)", "en": "South Africa · inflation (SARB)" }, "note": { "ru": "49 прогнозов (2015–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 17 случаях, ниже — в 32; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,60 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в июле 2021: ждали на 2022 год 4,2%, вышло 6,9%. Сильнее всего переоценили в марте 2019: ждали на 2020 год 5,3%, вышло 3,3%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 49 releases (2015–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 17 times, below 32; median error −0.60 pp. The largest under-forecast in July 2021: 4.2% expected for 2022, the outcome was 6.9%. The largest over-forecast in March 2019: 5.3% expected for 2020, the outcome was 3.3%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2014": 6.1, "2015": 4.6, "2016": 6.3, "2017": 5.3, "2018": 4.6, "2019": 4.1, "2020": 3.3, "2021": 4.5, "2022": 6.9, "2023": 6.0, "2024": 4.4, "2025": 3.2 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2026/september/forecast.pdf" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2015", "en": "SARB, Nov 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-11-19", "values": { "2015": 4.6, "2016": 6.0, "2017": 5.8 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2015/6971/Press-tables-forecast.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2017", "en": "SARB, Nov 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-11-23", "values": { "2017": 5.3, "2018": 5.2, "2019": 5.5 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2017/8095/QPM-Forecast---Press-tables-Nov-2017-MPC.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, сент. 2019", "en": "SARB, Sep 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-09-19", "values": { "2019": 4.2, "2020": 5.1, "2021": 4.7 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2019/9502/Forecast---September-2019-MPC.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2022", "en": "SARB, Nov 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-11-24", "values": { "2022": 6.7, "2023": 5.4, "2024": 4.5, "2025": 4.5 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2022/statement-of-the-monetary-policy-november/Forecast%20November%202022.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2024", "en": "SARB, Nov 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-11-21", "values": { "2024": 4.5, "2025": 4.0, "2026": 4.6, "2027": 4.5 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2024/november/Forecast%20Report%20MPC%20November%202024.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, сент. 2026", "en": "SARB, Sep 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-09-23", "values": { "2026": 4.4, "2027": 4.0, "2028": 3.2, "2029": 3.0 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2026/september/forecast.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2013, 2027 ], "view": "c=ZAF&i=inflation&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "cb", "bank": "SARB" }, { "id": "zaf_sarb_policy_rate", "iso3": "ZAF", "section": "economy", "metric": "policy_rate", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "%", "en": "%", "dec": 1 }, "definition": "repo rate, Q4 average, %", "headline": { "ru": "ЮАР: центробанк в марте 2019 года ждал ставку 6,9% на 2020 год — вышло 3,5%", "en": "South Africa: in March 2019 the South African Reserve Bank expected the policy rate of 6.9% for 2020; the outcome was 3.5%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "ЮАР: ключевая ставка — прогнозы Резервного банка ЮАР и факт", "en": "South Africa: the policy rate — SARB forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "ЮАР · ключевая ставка (Резервный банк ЮАР)", "en": "South Africa · the policy rate (SARB)" }, "note": { "ru": "35 прогнозов (2017–2024) на следующий год: факт выше прогноза в 16 случаях, ниже — в 19; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,28 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в январе 2022: ждали на 2023 год 5,8%, вышло 8,2%. Сильнее всего переоценили в марте 2019: ждали на 2020 год 6,9%, вышло 3,5%. Факт — по последним данным; ВВП и инфляцию потом пересматривают.", "en": "Forecasts of 35 releases (2017–2024) for the next year: the outcome above the forecast 16 times, below 19; median error −0.28 pp. The largest under-forecast in January 2022: 5.8% expected for 2023, the outcome was 8.2%. The largest over-forecast in March 2019: 6.9% expected for 2020, the outcome was 3.5%. Outcomes use the latest data; GDP and inflation get revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (последние данные)", "en": "Actual (latest data)" }, "values": { "2012": 5.0, "2013": 5.0, "2014": 5.75, "2015": 6.11, "2016": 7.0, "2017": 6.75, "2018": 6.61, "2019": 6.5, "2020": 3.5, "2021": 3.62, "2022": 6.55, "2023": 8.25, "2024": 7.89, "2025": 6.89 }, "src": "https://custom.resbank.co.za/SarbWebApi/WebIndicators/Shared/GetTimeseriesObservations/MMRD002A/2010-01-01/2025-12-31" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2017", "en": "SARB, Nov 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-11-23", "values": { "2017": 6.8, "2018": 7.1, "2019": 7.5 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2017/8095/QPM-Forecast---Press-tables-Nov-2017-MPC.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, сент. 2019", "en": "SARB, Sep 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-09-19", "values": { "2019": 6.6, "2020": 6.4, "2021": 6.5 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2019/9502/Forecast---September-2019-MPC.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2021", "en": "SARB, Nov 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-11-18", "values": { "2021": 3.82, "2022": 5.17, "2023": 6.04, "2024": 6.75 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2021/statement-of-the-monetary-policy-committee-november-2021/Forecast%20Report%20Nov%202021.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2022", "en": "SARB, Nov 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-11-24", "values": { "2022": 6.3, "2023": 6.55, "2024": 6.71, "2025": 6.83 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2022/statement-of-the-monetary-policy-november/Forecast%20November%202022.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, нояб. 2024", "en": "SARB, Nov 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-11-21", "values": { "2024": 7.85, "2025": 7.4, "2026": 7.27, "2027": 7.28 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2024/november/Forecast%20Report%20MPC%20November%202024.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Резервный банк ЮАР, сент. 2026", "en": "SARB, Sep 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-09-23", "values": { "2026": 6.98, "2027": 6.34, "2028": 5.98, "2029": 5.84 }, "src": "https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2026/september/forecast.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2015, 2027 ], "src_key": "cb", "bank": "SARB" }, { "id": "usa_spf_gdp_growth", "iso3": "USA", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (рост среднегодового реального ВВП)", "en": "% (growth of annual average real GDP)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "США: прогнозисты в ноябре 1998 года ждали рост ВВП 2,1% на 1999 год — вышло 4,8%", "en": "US: in November 1998 forecasters expected GDP growth of 2.1% for 1999; the outcome was 4.8%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: рост ВВП — прогнозы профессиональных прогнозистов и факт", "en": "US: GDP growth — professional forecasters vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · рост ВВП (опрос прогнозистов)", "en": "US · GDP growth (forecaster survey)" }, "note": { "ru": "35 прогнозов на следующий год (1990–2024): факт выше прогноза в 18 случаях, ниже — в 17; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,09 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в ноябре 1998: ждали на 1999 год 2,1%, вышло 4,8%. Сильнее всего переоценили в ноябре 2019: ждали на 2020 год 1,8%, вышло −2,1%. Прогноз — медиана опроса профессиональных прогнозистов ФРБ Филадельфии в 4-м квартале (ноябрь) на следующий год; факт — по последним данным, ВВП потом пересматривают.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 35 releases (1990–2024): the outcome above the forecast 18 times, below 17; typical error +0.09 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in November 1998: 2.1% expected for 1999, the outcome was 4.8%. The largest over-forecast in November 2019: 1.8% expected for 2020, the outcome was −2.1%. Forecast: the median of the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters in the fourth quarter (November) for the next year; outcomes use the latest data, and GDP gets revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (BEA и BLS, последние данные)", "en": "Actual (BEA and BLS, latest data)" }, "values": { "1967": 2.743, "1968": 4.915, "1969": 3.122, "1970": 0.185, "1971": 3.293, "1972": 5.255, "1973": 5.646, "1974": -0.541, "1975": -0.206, "1976": 5.388, "1977": 4.624, "1978": 5.535, "1979": 3.166, "1980": -0.257, "1981": 2.538, "1982": -1.803, "1983": 4.584, "1984": 7.236, "1985": 4.17, "1986": 3.463, "1987": 3.455, "1988": 4.177, "1989": 3.672, "1990": 1.886, "1991": -0.108, "1992": 3.523, "1993": 2.752, "1994": 4.029, "1995": 2.684, "1996": 3.773, "1997": 4.447, "1998": 4.483, "1999": 4.788, "2000": 4.078, "2001": 0.956, "2002": 1.7, "2003": 2.796, "2004": 3.848, "2005": 3.484, "2006": 2.785, "2007": 2.004, "2008": 0.114, "2009": -2.576, "2010": 2.695, "2011": 1.564, "2012": 2.289, "2013": 2.118, "2014": 2.524, "2015": 2.946, "2016": 1.819, "2017": 2.458, "2018": 2.966, "2019": 2.584, "2020": -2.081, "2021": 6.268, "2022": 2.43, "2023": 2.919, "2024": 2.952, "2025": 2.344 }, "src": "https://apps.bea.gov/national/Release/TXT/NipaDataQ.txt" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 1990", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 1990" }, "year": 1990, "published": "1990-11-28", "values": { "1990": 1.027, "1991": 0.144 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_RGDP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 1997", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 1997" }, "year": 1997, "published": "1997-11-24", "values": { "1997": 3.747, "1998": 2.643 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_RGDP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2004", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2004" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2004-11-22", "values": { "2004": 4.396, "2005": 3.494 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_RGDP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2011", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-11-14", "values": { "2011": 1.797, "2012": 2.437, "2013": 2.666, "2014": 3.544 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_RGDP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2018", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-11-13", "values": { "2018": 2.904, "2019": 2.737, "2020": 2.065, "2021": 1.739 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_RGDP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2025", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-11-17", "values": { "2025": 1.936, "2026": 1.842, "2027": 2.059, "2028": 1.827 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_RGDP_Level.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1990, 2028 ], "view": "c=USA&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=1995", "src_key": "spf", "source_page": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters" }, { "id": "usa_spf_unemployment", "iso3": "USA", "section": "economy", "metric": "unemployment", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (среднегодовая)", "en": "% (annual average)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "США: прогнозисты в ноябре 2008 года ждали безработицу 7,4% на 2009 год — вышло 9,3%", "en": "US: in November 2008 forecasters expected unemployment of 7.4% for 2009; the outcome was 9.3%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: безработица — прогнозы профессиональных прогнозистов и факт", "en": "US: unemployment — professional forecasters vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · безработица (опрос прогнозистов)", "en": "US · unemployment (forecaster survey)" }, "note": { "ru": "35 прогнозов на следующий год (1990–2024): факт выше прогноза в 9 случаях, ниже — в 26; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,26 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в ноябре 2019: ждали на 2020 год 3,6%, вышло 8,1%. Сильнее всего переоценили в ноябре 2020: ждали на 2021 год 6,3%, вышло 5,3%. Прогноз — медиана опроса профессиональных прогнозистов ФРБ Филадельфии в 4-м квартале (ноябрь) на следующий год; факт — по последним данным, ВВП потом пересматривают.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 35 releases (1990–2024): the outcome above the forecast 9 times, below 26; typical error −0.26 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in November 2019: 3.6% expected for 2020, the outcome was 8.1%. The largest over-forecast in November 2020: 6.3% expected for 2021, the outcome was 5.3%. Forecast: the median of the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters in the fourth quarter (November) for the next year; outcomes use the latest data, and GDP gets revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (BEA и BLS, последние данные)", "en": "Actual (BEA and BLS, latest data)" }, "values": { "1968": 3.558, "1969": 3.492, "1970": 4.983, "1971": 5.95, "1972": 5.6, "1973": 4.858, "1974": 5.642, "1975": 8.475, "1976": 7.7, "1977": 7.05, "1978": 6.067, "1979": 5.85, "1980": 7.175, "1981": 7.617, "1982": 9.708, "1983": 9.6, "1984": 7.508, "1985": 7.192, "1986": 7.0, "1987": 6.175, "1988": 5.492, "1989": 5.258, "1990": 5.617, "1991": 6.85, "1992": 7.492, "1993": 6.908, "1994": 6.1, "1995": 5.592, "1996": 5.408, "1997": 4.942, "1998": 4.5, "1999": 4.217, "2000": 3.967, "2001": 4.742, "2002": 5.783, "2003": 5.992, "2004": 5.542, "2005": 5.083, "2006": 4.608, "2007": 4.617, "2008": 5.8, "2009": 9.283, "2010": 9.608, "2011": 8.933, "2012": 8.075, "2013": 7.358, "2014": 6.158, "2015": 5.275, "2016": 4.875, "2017": 4.358, "2018": 3.892, "2019": 3.675, "2020": 8.1, "2021": 5.35, "2022": 3.65, "2023": 3.625, "2024": 4.025, "2025": 4.264 }, "src": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 1990", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 1990" }, "year": 1990, "published": "1990-11-28", "values": { "1990": 5.5, "1991": 6.5 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_UNEMP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 1997", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 1997" }, "year": 1997, "published": "1997-11-24", "values": { "1997": 5.0, "1998": 4.9 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_UNEMP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2004", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2004" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2004-11-22", "values": { "2004": 5.5, "2005": 5.275 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_UNEMP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2011", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-11-14", "values": { "2011": 9.0158, "2012": 8.8438, "2013": 8.3731, "2014": 7.8 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_UNEMP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2018", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-11-13", "values": { "2018": 3.8804, "2019": 3.66, "2020": 3.8, "2021": 4.0 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_UNEMP_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2025", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-11-17", "values": { "2025": 4.2271, "2026": 4.5, "2027": 4.4248, "2028": 4.3 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_UNEMP_Level.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1990, 2028 ], "view": "c=USA&i=unemployment&past=1&from=1995", "src_key": "spf", "source_page": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters" }, { "id": "usa_spf_inflation_cpi", "iso3": "USA", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (CPI, IV кв. к IV кв.)", "en": "% (CPI, Q4 over Q4)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "США: прогнозисты в ноябре 2020 года ждали инфляцию 2,0% на 2021 год — вышло 6,8%", "en": "US: in November 2020 forecasters expected inflation of 2.0% for 2021; the outcome was 6.8%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: инфляция — прогнозы профессиональных прогнозистов и факт", "en": "US: inflation — professional forecasters vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · инфляция (опрос прогнозистов)", "en": "US · inflation (forecaster survey)" }, "note": { "ru": "35 прогнозов на следующий год (1990–2024): факт выше прогноза в 13 случаях, ниже — в 22; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,23 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в ноябре 2020: ждали на 2021 год 2,0%, вышло 6,8%. Сильнее всего переоценили в ноябре 1990: ждали на 1991 год 5,2%, вышло 3,0%. Прогноз — медиана опроса профессиональных прогнозистов ФРБ Филадельфии в 4-м квартале (ноябрь) на следующий год; факт — по последним данным, ВВП потом пересматривают.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 35 releases (1990–2024): the outcome above the forecast 13 times, below 22; typical error −0.23 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in November 2020: 2.0% expected for 2021, the outcome was 6.8%. The largest over-forecast in November 1990: 5.2% expected for 1991, the outcome was 3.0%. Forecast: the median of the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters in the fourth quarter (November) for the next year; outcomes use the latest data, and GDP gets revised." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (BEA и BLS, последние данные)", "en": "Actual (BEA and BLS, latest data)" }, "values": { "1968": 4.626, "1969": 5.833, "1970": 5.6, "1971": 3.535, "1972": 3.333, "1973": 8.419, "1974": 12.046, "1975": 7.383, "1976": 5.187, "1977": 6.594, "1978": 8.93, "1979": 12.642, "1980": 12.538, "1981": 9.583, "1982": 4.444, "1983": 3.233, "1984": 4.154, "1985": 3.514, "1986": 1.346, "1987": 4.406, "1988": 4.306, "1989": 4.627, "1990": 6.276, "1991": 2.965, "1992": 3.122, "1993": 2.769, "1994": 2.603, "1995": 2.626, "1996": 3.231, "1997": 1.891, "1998": 1.526, "1999": 2.62, "2000": 3.443, "2001": 1.875, "2002": 2.254, "2003": 2.002, "2004": 3.385, "2005": 3.675, "2006": 1.965, "2007": 4.031, "2008": 1.596, "2009": 1.488, "2010": 1.23, "2011": 3.345, "2012": 1.904, "2013": 1.207, "2014": 1.164, "2015": 0.4, "2016": 1.807, "2017": 2.108, "2018": 2.214, "2019": 2.049, "2020": 1.242, "2021": 6.771, "2022": 7.092, "2023": 3.233, "2024": 2.723, "2025": 2.83 }, "src": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 1990", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 1990" }, "year": 1990, "published": "1990-11-28", "values": { "1990": 5.5, "1991": 5.25 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_CPI_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 1997", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 1997" }, "year": 1997, "published": "1997-11-24", "values": { "1997": 2.02, "1998": 2.6 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_CPI_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2004", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2004" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2004-11-22", "values": { "2004": 3.2, "2005": 2.2 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_CPI_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2011", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-11-14", "values": { "2011": 3.6, "2012": 1.9133, "2013": 2.2 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_CPI_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2018", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-11-13", "values": { "2018": 2.3898, "2019": 2.35, "2020": 2.2715 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_CPI_Level.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Опрос ФРБ Филадельфии, нояб. 2025", "en": "Philadelphia Fed survey, Nov 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-11-17", "values": { "2025": 2.9, "2026": 2.75, "2027": 2.4976 }, "src": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/data-files/files/Median_CPI_Level.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1990, 2028 ], "view": "c=USA&i=inflation&past=1&from=1995", "src_key": "spf", "source_page": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters" }, { "id": "gbr_official_gdp_growth", "iso3": "GBR", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (рост реального ВВП)", "en": "% (real GDP growth)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Великобритания: Минфин в марте 2008 года ждал рост ВВП 2,5% на 2009 год — вышло −4,5%", "en": "UK: in March 2008 HM Treasury expected GDP growth of 2.5% for 2009; the outcome was −4.5%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Великобритания: рост ВВП — прогнозы Минфина и OBR и факт", "en": "UK: GDP growth — HM Treasury and OBR forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Великобритания · рост ВВП (Минфин, OBR)", "en": "UK · GDP growth (HMT, OBR)" }, "note": { "ru": "83 прогноза на следующий год (1983–2024): факт выше прогноза в 34 случаях, ниже — в 49; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,10 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в марте 2020: ждали на 2021 год 1,8%, вышло 8,5%. Сильнее всего переоценили в марте 2019: ждали на 2020 год 1,4%, вышло −10,0%. Прогнозы до 2010 года — Минфин Великобритании, после — независимое OBR; середина диапазона, если публиковали диапазон.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 83 releases (1983–2024): the outcome above the forecast 34 times, below 49; typical error −0.10 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in March 2020: 1.8% expected for 2021, the outcome was 8.5%. The largest over-forecast in March 2019: 1.4% expected for 2020, the outcome was −10.0%. Forecasts to 2010 by HM Treasury, then by the independent OBR; the midpoint where a range was published." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (ONS, последние данные)", "en": "Actual (ONS, latest data)" }, "values": { "1949": 3.3, "1950": 3.3, "1951": 3.7, "1952": 1.5, "1953": 5.5, "1954": 4.4, "1955": 4.0, "1956": 1.7, "1957": 2.0, "1958": 1.3, "1959": 4.3, "1960": 6.3, "1961": 2.7, "1962": 1.1, "1963": 4.8, "1964": 5.7, "1965": 2.1, "1966": 1.6, "1967": 2.8, "1968": 5.5, "1969": 1.9, "1970": 2.7, "1971": 3.6, "1972": 4.3, "1973": 6.5, "1974": -2.5, "1975": -1.5, "1976": 3.0, "1977": 2.5, "1978": 4.2, "1979": 3.7, "1980": -2.1, "1981": -0.6, "1982": 2.0, "1983": 4.2, "1984": 2.2, "1985": 4.1, "1986": 3.1, "1987": 5.5, "1988": 5.4, "1989": 2.4, "1990": 0.6, "1991": -1.4, "1992": 0.3, "1993": 2.3, "1994": 3.4, "1995": 2.4, "1996": 2.6, "1997": 4.9, "1998": 3.3, "1999": 2.9, "2000": 4.5, "2001": 2.4, "2002": 1.7, "2003": 3.2, "2004": 2.3, "2005": 2.7, "2006": 2.2, "2007": 3.0, "2008": 0.0, "2009": -4.5, "2010": 2.4, "2011": 1.1, "2012": 1.7, "2013": 1.9, "2014": 3.2, "2015": 2.2, "2016": 2.2, "2017": 3.3, "2018": 1.6, "2019": 1.4, "2020": -10.0, "2021": 8.5, "2022": 5.0, "2023": 0.4, "2024": 1.1, "2025": 1.2 }, "src": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyp/qna" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Минфин/OBR, нояб. 1983", "en": "HMT/OBR, Nov 1983" }, "year": 1983, "published": "1983-11", "values": { "1983": 3.0, "1984": 3.0 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260326123133id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_Spring_2026.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин/OBR, март 1992", "en": "HMT/OBR, Mar 1992" }, "year": 1992, "published": "1992-03", "values": { "1992": 1.0, "1993": 3.0, "1994": 3.75, "1995": 3.5, "1996": 3.25 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260326123133id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_Spring_2026.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин/OBR, нояб. 2000", "en": "HMT/OBR, Nov 2000" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2000-11", "values": { "2000": 3.0, "2001": 2.5, "2002": 2.5, "2003": 2.5, "2004": 2.5, "2005": 2.5 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260326123133id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_Spring_2026.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин/OBR, нояб. 2009", "en": "HMT/OBR, Nov 2009" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009-11", "values": { "2009": -4.75, "2010": 1.25, "2011": 3.5, "2012": 3.5, "2013": 3.5, "2014": 3.5 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260326123133id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_Spring_2026.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин/OBR, март 2017", "en": "HMT/OBR, Mar 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-03", "values": { "2017": 2.0074, "2018": 1.5508, "2019": 1.7422, "2020": 1.8923, "2021": 2.0017 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260326123133id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_Spring_2026.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин/OBR, март 2026", "en": "HMT/OBR, Mar 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-03", "values": { "2026": 1.0981, "2027": 1.5887, "2028": 1.5821, "2029": 1.5385, "2030": 1.516 }, "src": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260326123133id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_Spring_2026.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 1984, 2028 ], "src_key": "obr_ec", "source_page": "https://obr.uk/data/" }, { "id": "grc_ec_gdp_growth", "iso3": "GRC", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (рост реального ВВП)", "en": "% (real GDP growth)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Греция: Еврокомиссия в мае 2011 года ждала рост ВВП 1,1% на 2012 год — вышло −8,3%", "en": "Greece: in May 2011 the European Commission expected GDP growth of 1.1% for 2012; the outcome was −8.3%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Греция: рост ВВП — прогнозы Еврокомиссии и факт", "en": "Greece: GDP growth — European Commission forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Греция · рост ВВП (Еврокомиссия)", "en": "Greece · GDP growth (EC)" }, "note": { "ru": "55 прогнозов на следующий год (2000–2024): факт выше прогноза в 21 случае, ниже — в 34; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,39 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в ноябре 2020: ждали на 2021 год 5,0%, вышло 8,7%. Сильнее всего переоценили в ноябре 2019: ждали на 2020 год 2,3%, вышло −9,2%. Прогнозы весенних и осенних выпусков Еврокомиссии (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO с 2011 года).", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 55 releases (2000–2024): the outcome above the forecast 21 times, below 34; typical error −0.39 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in November 2020: 5.0% expected for 2021, the outcome was 8.7%. The largest over-forecast in November 2019: 2.3% expected for 2020, the outcome was −9.2%. Spring and autumn European Commission editions (PDFs 2000–2010, AMECO from 2011)." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (AMECO, весна 2026)", "en": "Actual (AMECO, spring 2026)" }, "values": { "1999": 2.6588, "2000": 4.1378, "2001": 4.6504, "2002": 4.6831, "2003": 5.7968, "2004": 5.3779, "2005": 1.1835, "2006": 6.4434, "2007": 3.5069, "2008": 0.0575, "2009": -4.1193, "2010": -5.6937, "2011": -9.8768, "2012": -8.3311, "2013": -2.2721, "2014": 0.7922, "2015": -0.2283, "2016": -0.0318, "2017": 1.4731, "2018": 2.0647, "2019": 2.2772, "2020": -9.1962, "2021": 8.6545, "2022": 5.522, "2023": 2.1359, "2024": 2.0866, "2025": 2.0731 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, март 2000", "en": "EC, Mar 2000" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2000-03-21", "values": { "2000": 3.9, "2001": 4.0 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, нояб. 2005", "en": "EC, Nov 2005" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2005-11-07", "values": { "2005": 3.5, "2006": 3.4, "2007": 3.4 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, нояб. 2011", "en": "EC, Nov 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-11-10", "values": { "2011": -5.4967, "2012": -2.8078, "2013": 0.6899 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, нояб. 2015", "en": "EC, Nov 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-11-05", "values": { "2015": -1.3956, "2016": -1.2726, "2017": 2.678 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, нояб. 2020", "en": "EC, Nov 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-11-05", "values": { "2020": -8.9963, "2021": 5.0212, "2022": 3.5258 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, май 2026", "en": "EC, May 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-05-21", "values": { "2026": 1.7876, "2027": 1.5951 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2028 ], "view": "c=GRC&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "obr_ec", "source_page": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts_en" }, { "id": "ita_ec_gdp_growth", "iso3": "ITA", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (рост реального ВВП)", "en": "% (real GDP growth)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Италия: Еврокомиссия в апреле 2008 года ждала рост ВВП 0,8% на 2009 год — вышло −5,3%", "en": "Italy: in April 2008 the European Commission expected GDP growth of 0.8% for 2009; the outcome was −5.3%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Италия: рост ВВП — прогнозы Еврокомиссии и факт", "en": "Italy: GDP growth — European Commission forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Италия · рост ВВП (Еврокомиссия)", "en": "Italy · GDP growth (EC)" }, "note": { "ru": "55 прогнозов на следующий год (2000–2024): факт выше прогноза в 15 случаях, ниже — в 40; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,50 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в ноябре 2020: ждали на 2021 год 4,1%, вышло 8,9%. Сильнее всего переоценили в мае 2019: ждали на 2020 год 0,7%, вышло −8,9%. Прогнозы весенних и осенних выпусков Еврокомиссии (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO с 2011 года).", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 55 releases (2000–2024): the outcome above the forecast 15 times, below 40; typical error −0.50 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in November 2020: 4.1% expected for 2021, the outcome was 8.9%. The largest over-forecast in May 2019: 0.7% expected for 2020, the outcome was −8.9%. Spring and autumn European Commission editions (PDFs 2000–2010, AMECO from 2011)." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (AMECO, весна 2026)", "en": "Actual (AMECO, spring 2026)" }, "values": { "1999": 1.678, "2000": 3.8821, "2001": 2.0064, "2002": 0.2699, "2003": 0.0666, "2004": 1.474, "2005": 0.7624, "2006": 1.7995, "2007": 1.4623, "2008": -1.0231, "2009": -5.3052, "2010": 1.5291, "2011": 0.6955, "2012": -3.1252, "2013": -1.818, "2014": -0.0014, "2015": 0.8857, "2016": 1.2362, "2017": 1.6037, "2018": 0.8266, "2019": 0.4292, "2020": -8.8682, "2021": 8.9311, "2022": 4.8212, "2023": 0.9228, "2024": 0.783, "2025": 0.5396 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, март 2000", "en": "EC, Mar 2000" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2000-03-21", "values": { "2000": 2.7, "2001": 2.7 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, нояб. 2005", "en": "EC, Nov 2005" }, "year": 2005, "published": "2005-11-07", "values": { "2005": 0.2, "2006": 1.5, "2007": 1.4 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, нояб. 2011", "en": "EC, Nov 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-11-10", "values": { "2011": 0.54, "2012": 0.0571, "2013": 0.6623 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, нояб. 2015", "en": "EC, Nov 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-11-05", "values": { "2015": 0.8667, "2016": 1.4513, "2017": 1.4475 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, нояб. 2020", "en": "EC, Nov 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-11-05", "values": { "2020": -9.8515, "2021": 4.051, "2022": 2.8392 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" }, { "label": { "ru": "Еврокомиссия, май 2026", "en": "EC, May 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-05-21", "values": { "2026": 0.5455, "2027": 0.5965 }, "src": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/03324a2c-995c-4163-a57d-62eb2d7e80df_en" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2028 ], "view": "c=ITA&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "obr_ec", "source_page": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts_en" }, { "id": "usa_cbo_budget_balance", "iso3": "USA", "section": "economy", "metric": "gov_balance", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% ВВП (плюс — профицит)", "en": "% of GDP (plus: surplus)", "dec": 1 }, "headline": { "ru": "США: бюджетное управление Конгресса в январе 2008 года ждало профицита бюджета 1,0% ВВП на 2018 год — вышел дефицит 3,8% ВВП", "en": "US: in January 2008 CBO projected a surplus of 1.0% of GDP for 2018; the outcome was a deficit of 3.8%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: баланс бюджета — базовые прогнозы CBO и факт", "en": "US: budget balance — CBO baselines vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · бюджет (CBO)", "en": "US · budget (CBO)" }, "note": { "ru": "18 прогнозов: факт ниже прогноза в 16, выше — в 2. Базовый прогноз исходит из действующих законов: законы, принятые позже, входят в разницу. Январские базовые прогнозы CBO, каждый — против последнего года, до которого дошёл факт: янв. 2007: ждали на 2017 год 1,2% ВВП, вышло −3,4% ВВП; янв. 2008: ждали на 2018 год 1,0% ВВП, вышло −3,8% ВВП; янв. 2009: ждали на 2019 год −1,1% ВВП, вышло −4,6% ВВП; янв. 2010: ждали на 2020 год −3,0% ВВП, вышло −14,7% ВВП; янв. 2011: ждали на 2021 год −3,2% ВВП, вышло −12,0% ВВП; янв. 2012: ждали на 2022 год −1,4% ВВП, вышло −5,4% ВВП; февр. 2013: ждали на 2023 год −3,8% ВВП, вышло −6,2% ВВП; февр. 2014: ждали на 2024 год −4,0% ВВП, вышло −6,3% ВВП; янв. 2015: ждали на 2025 год −4,0% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП; янв. 2016: ждали на 2025 год −4,6% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП; янв. 2017: ждали на 2025 год −4,5% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП; апр. 2018: ждали на 2025 год −5,1% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП; янв. 2019: ждали на 2025 год −4,5% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП; янв. 2020: ждали на 2025 год −4,9% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП; февр. 2021: ждали на 2025 год −4,0% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП; май 2022: ждали на 2025 год −4,7% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП; февр. 2023: ждали на 2025 год −6,1% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП; февр. 2024: ждали на 2025 год −6,1% ВВП, вышло −5,8% ВВП.", "en": "18 releases: the outcome below the projection 16 times, above 2. A baseline assumes current law: laws passed later are part of the gap. CBO January baselines, each against the latest year with an outcome: Jan 2007: 1.2% of GDP expected for 2017, outcome −3.4% of GDP; Jan 2008: 1.0% of GDP expected for 2018, outcome −3.8% of GDP; Jan 2009: −1.1% of GDP expected for 2019, outcome −4.6% of GDP; Jan 2010: −3.0% of GDP expected for 2020, outcome −14.7% of GDP; Jan 2011: −3.2% of GDP expected for 2021, outcome −12.0% of GDP; Jan 2012: −1.4% of GDP expected for 2022, outcome −5.4% of GDP; Feb 2013: −3.8% of GDP expected for 2023, outcome −6.2% of GDP; Feb 2014: −4.0% of GDP expected for 2024, outcome −6.3% of GDP; Jan 2015: −4.0% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP; Jan 2016: −4.6% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP; Jan 2017: −4.5% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP; Apr 2018: −5.1% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP; Jan 2019: −4.5% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP; Jan 2020: −4.9% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP; Feb 2021: −4.0% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP; May 2022: −4.7% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP; Feb 2023: −6.1% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP; Feb 2024: −6.1% of GDP expected for 2025, outcome −5.8% of GDP." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (CBO, исторические данные)", "en": "Actual (CBO Historical Budget Data)" }, "values": { "1962": -1.22, "1963": -0.769, "1964": -0.894, "1965": -0.199, "1966": -0.474, "1967": -1.033, "1968": -2.803, "1969": 0.331, "1970": -0.272, "1971": -2.063, "1972": -1.922, "1973": -1.102, "1974": -0.414, "1975": -3.313, "1976": -4.128, "1977": -2.651, "1978": -2.603, "1979": -1.587, "1980": -2.644, "1981": -2.52, "1982": -3.862, "1983": -5.877, "1984": -4.694, "1985": -4.978, "1986": -4.888, "1987": -3.141, "1988": -3.02, "1989": -2.748, "1990": -3.747, "1991": -4.419, "1992": -4.525, "1993": -3.764, "1994": -2.831, "1995": -2.169, "1996": -1.351, "1997": -0.259, "1998": 0.776, "1999": 1.325, "2000": 2.335, "2001": 1.218, "2002": -1.457, "2003": -3.348, "2004": -3.431, "2005": -2.479, "2006": -1.82, "2007": -1.123, "2008": -3.099, "2009": -9.765, "2010": -8.696, "2011": -8.403, "2012": -6.683, "2013": -4.073, "2014": -2.782, "2015": -2.433, "2016": -3.136, "2017": -3.435, "2018": -3.812, "2019": -4.621, "2020": -14.681, "2021": -12.044, "2022": -5.382, "2023": -6.182, "2024": -6.325, "2025": -5.847 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51134-2026-02-Historical-Budget-Data.xlsx" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "CBO, янв. 2007", "en": "CBO, Jan 2007" }, "year": 2007, "published": "2007-01", "values": { "2007": -1.261, "2008": -0.686, "2009": -0.775, "2010": -0.87, "2011": -0.076, "2012": 0.99, "2013": 0.886, "2014": 0.984, "2015": 1.065, "2016": 0.939, "2017": 1.17 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/51118-2007-01-BudgetProjections.xls" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, янв. 2010", "en": "CBO, Jan 2010" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2010-01", "values": { "2010": -9.24, "2011": -6.538, "2012": -4.129, "2013": -3.23, "2014": -2.699, "2015": -2.607, "2016": -2.711, "2017": -2.621, "2018": -2.603, "2019": -2.994, "2020": -3.046 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/51118-2010-01-BudgetProjections.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, февр. 2014", "en": "CBO, Feb 2014" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-02", "values": { "2014": -2.978, "2015": -2.639, "2016": -2.824, "2017": -2.896, "2018": -3.124, "2019": -3.44, "2020": -3.665, "2021": -3.839, "2022": -4.168, "2023": -4.06, "2024": -4.002 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/51118-2014-02-BudgetProjections.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, янв. 2017", "en": "CBO, Jan 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-01", "values": { "2017": -2.916, "2018": -2.446, "2019": -2.909, "2020": -3.198, "2021": -3.594, "2022": -4.165, "2023": -4.177, "2024": -4.126, "2025": -4.502, "2026": -4.818, "2027": -5.03 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/recurringdata/51118-2017-01-budgetprojections.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, февр. 2021", "en": "CBO, Feb 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-02", "values": { "2021": -10.288, "2022": -4.573, "2023": -4.0, "2024": -3.603, "2025": -3.951, "2026": -3.748, "2027": -3.688, "2028": -4.583, "2029": -4.396, "2030": -5.197, "2031": -5.717 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-02/51118-2021-02-11-budgetprojections.xlsx" }, { "label": { "ru": "CBO, февр. 2024", "en": "CBO, Feb 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-02", "values": { "2024": -5.35, "2025": -6.055, "2026": -5.546, "2027": -5.166, "2028": -5.582, "2029": -5.014, "2030": -5.362, "2031": -5.528, "2032": -5.797, "2033": -6.374, "2034": -6.194 }, "src": "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51118-2024-02-Budget-Projections.xlsx" } ], "xRange": [ 2005, 2036 ], "view": "c=USA&i=gov_balance&past=1&from=2000", "src_key": "us_fiscal", "source_page": "https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data" }, { "id": "usa_omb_gdp_growth", "iso3": "USA", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (рост реального ВВП в среднем за год)", "en": "% (growth of annual average real GDP)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "США: администрация в феврале 2008 года закладывала рост ВВП 3,0% на 2009 год — вышло −2,6%", "en": "US: in February 2008 the administration expected GDP growth of 3.0% for 2009; the outcome was −2.6%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "США: рост ВВП — допущения бюджета президента и факт", "en": "US: GDP growth — the President’s budget assumptions vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · рост ВВП (бюджет президента)", "en": "US · GDP growth (President’s budget)" }, "note": { "ru": "29 прогнозов на следующий год (1992–2022): факт выше прогноза в 9 случаях, ниже — в 20; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,60 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в феврале 2020: ждали на 2021 год 3,1%, вышло 6,3%. Сильнее всего переоценили в феврале 2008: ждали на 2009 год 3,0%, вышло −2,6%. Допущение — рост на бюджетный год в бюджете, внесённом в начале предыдущего года (с бюджета на 1993 год — ВВП). Минбюджет пишет, что его прогнозы отчасти выше факта потому, что считают предложения президента принятыми.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 29 releases (1992–2022): the outcome above the forecast 9 times, below 20; typical error −0.60 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in February 2020: 3.1% expected for 2021, the outcome was 6.3%. The largest over-forecast in February 2008: 3.0% expected for 2009, the outcome was −2.6%. Assumption: growth in the budget year of the budget submitted early in the previous year (GDP from the FY1993 budget). OMB writes that its forecasts run above the outcome partly because they assume the President’s proposals are enacted." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (BEA, последние данные)", "en": "Actual (BEA, latest data)" }, "values": { "1970": 0.2, "1971": 3.3, "1972": 5.3, "1973": 5.6, "1974": -0.5, "1975": -0.2, "1976": 5.4, "1977": 4.6, "1978": 5.5, "1979": 3.2, "1980": -0.3, "1981": 2.5, "1982": -1.8, "1983": 4.6, "1984": 7.2, "1985": 4.2, "1986": 3.5, "1987": 3.5, "1988": 4.2, "1989": 3.7, "1990": 1.9, "1991": -0.1, "1992": 3.5, "1993": 2.7, "1994": 4.0, "1995": 2.7, "1996": 3.8, "1997": 4.4, "1998": 4.5, "1999": 4.8, "2000": 4.1, "2001": 1.0, "2002": 1.7, "2003": 2.8, "2004": 3.8, "2005": 3.5, "2006": 2.8, "2007": 2.0, "2008": 0.1, "2009": -2.6, "2010": 2.7, "2011": 1.6, "2012": 2.3, "2013": 2.1, "2014": 2.5, "2015": 2.9, "2016": 1.8, "2017": 2.5, "2018": 3.0, "2019": 2.6, "2020": -2.1, "2021": 6.3, "2022": 2.4, "2023": 2.9, "2024": 3.0, "2025": 2.3 }, "src": "https://apps.bea.gov/national/Release/TXT/NipaDataA.txt" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Минбюджет США, янв. 1992", "en": "OMB, Jan 1992" }, "year": 1992, "published": "1992-01-29", "values": { "1992": 1.5, "1993": 3.0, "1994": 3.0 }, "src": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-MSR/pdf/BUDGET-2026-MSR.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минбюджет США, февр. 2000", "en": "OMB, Feb 2000" }, "year": 2000, "published": "2000-02-07", "values": { "2000": 3.3, "2001": 2.7, "2002": 2.5 }, "src": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-MSR/pdf/BUDGET-2026-MSR.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минбюджет США, февр. 2006", "en": "OMB, Feb 2006" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-02-06", "values": { "2006": 3.4, "2007": 3.3, "2008": 3.3 }, "src": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-MSR/pdf/BUDGET-2026-MSR.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минбюджет США, февр. 2011", "en": "OMB, Feb 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-02-14", "values": { "2011": 2.7, "2012": 3.6, "2013": 4.4 }, "src": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-MSR/pdf/BUDGET-2026-MSR.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минбюджет США, май 2017", "en": "OMB, May 2017" }, "year": 2017, "published": "2017-05-23", "values": { "2017": 2.3, "2018": 2.4, "2019": 2.7 }, "src": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-MSR/pdf/BUDGET-2026-MSR.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минбюджет США, сент. 2025", "en": "OMB, Sep 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-09-05", "values": { "2025": 1.8, "2026": 3.0, "2027": 3.1 }, "src": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-MSR/pdf/BUDGET-2026-MSR.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 1990, 2028 ], "view": "c=USA&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=1990", "src_key": "us_admin", "source_page": "https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget" }, { "id": "wld_eia_solar", "iso3": null, "section": "energy", "metric": "solar_capacity", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "ГВт", "en": "GW", "dec": 0 }, "headline": { "ru": "Мир: Минэнерго США в июле 2010 года ждало мощность 56 ГВт на 2024 год — вышло 1 863 ГВт", "en": "World: in July 2010 the US EIA expected capacity of 56 GW for 2024; the outcome was 1,863 GW" }, "gap_kind": "pct", "hit": true, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Мир: солнечные станции — прогнозы EIA и факт", "en": "World: solar capacity — US EIA projections vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Мир · солнце (EIA)", "en": "World · solar (EIA)" }, "note": { "ru": "4 прогноза: факт ниже прогноза в 0, выше — в 4. Солнце — фотоэлектрические и концентраторные станции вместе; сценарий не прогноз, но им пользовались как прогнозом. Базовый сценарий International Energy Outlook, каждый выпуск — против последнего года с фактом: июль 2010: ждали на 2024 год 56 ГВт, вышло 1 863 ГВт; сент. 2011: ждали на 2024 год 95 ГВт, вышло 1 863 ГВт; июль 2013: ждали на 2024 год 178 ГВт, вышло 1 863 ГВт; май 2016: ждали на 2024 год 350 ГВт, вышло 1 863 ГВт.", "en": "4 releases: the outcome below the projection 0 times, above 4. Solar: photovoltaic and concentrating plants together; a scenario is not a forecast, yet it was used as one. International Energy Outlook reference case, each edition against the latest year with an outcome: Jul 2010: 56 GW expected for 2024, outcome 1,863 GW; Sep 2011: 95 GW expected for 2024, outcome 1,863 GW; Jul 2013: 178 GW expected for 2024, outcome 1,863 GW; May 2016: 350 GW expected for 2024, outcome 1,863 GW." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (статистика EIA)", "en": "Actual (EIA statistics)" }, "values": { "2000": 1.0, "2001": 1.3, "2002": 1.6, "2003": 2.1, "2004": 3.1, "2005": 4.5, "2006": 5.8, "2007": 8.0, "2008": 14.2, "2009": 22.1, "2010": 39.1, "2011": 69.5, "2012": 98.5, "2013": 134.5, "2014": 179.9, "2015": 227.7, "2016": 299.9, "2017": 394.9, "2018": 488.3, "2019": 590.9, "2020": 724.7, "2021": 868.5, "2022": 1067.6, "2023": 1414.4, "2024": 1863.4 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/opendata/bulk/INTL.zip" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "EIA IEO, июль 2010", "en": "EIA IEO, Jul 2010" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2010-07", "values": { "2015": 45.0, "2020": 53.0, "2025": 57.0, "2030": 60.0, "2035": 64.0 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/ieo10/pdf/0484(2010).pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "EIA IEO, сент. 2011", "en": "EIA IEO, Sep 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-09", "values": { "2015": 62.0, "2020": 86.0, "2025": 97.0, "2030": 106.0, "2035": 119.0 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/ieo11/pdf/0484(2011).pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "EIA IEO, июль 2013", "en": "EIA IEO, Jul 2013" }, "year": 2013, "published": "2013-07", "values": { "2015": 113.0, "2020": 157.0, "2025": 183.0, "2030": 204.0, "2035": 239.0, "2040": 266.0 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/ieo13/pdf/0484(2013).pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "EIA IEO, май 2016", "en": "EIA IEO, May 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-05", "values": { "2020": 293.0, "2025": 364.0, "2030": 427.0, "2035": 491.0, "2040": 551.0 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/ieo16/pdf/0484(2016).pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2006, 2040 ], "src_key": "energy_outlooks", "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/" }, { "id": "wld_eia_steo_oil", "iso3": null, "section": "energy", "metric": "wti_spot", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "долл. за баррель, в среднем за год", "en": "$ a barrel, annual average", "dec": 2 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Нефть: Минэнерго США в июле 2008 года ждало цену $132,75 на 2009 год — вышло $61,95", "en": "Oil: in July 2008 the US EIA expected a price of $132.75 for 2009; the outcome was $61.95" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Нефть WTI: прогнозы Минэнерго США на следующий год и факт", "en": "WTI oil: US EIA next-year forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Нефть · прогноз цены (Минэнерго США)", "en": "Oil · price forecast (US EIA)" }, "note": { "ru": "24 прогноза на следующий год (2001–2024): факт выше прогноза в 13 случаях, ниже — в 11; обычно факт выше прогноза на 1,42 доллара за баррель. Сильнее всего недооценили в июле 2007: ждали на 2008 год $66,92, вышло $99,67. Сильнее всего переоценили в июле 2008: ждали на 2009 год $132,75, вышло $61,95. Прогноз — июльский выпуск краткосрочного прогноза Минэнерго США (Short-Term Energy Outlook) на следующий год, один прогноз в год; факт — среднегодовая цена по данным EIA.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 24 releases (2001–2024): the outcome above the forecast 13 times, below 11; typical error +1.42 $ a barrel. The largest under-forecast in July 2007: $66.92 expected for 2008, the outcome was $99.67. The largest over-forecast in July 2008: $132.75 expected for 2009, the outcome was $61.95. Forecast: the July issue of the US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for the next year, one forecast a year; outcome: EIA’s annual average price." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (цены EIA)", "en": "Actual (EIA prices)" }, "values": { "1990": 24.53, "1991": 21.54, "1992": 20.58, "1993": 18.43, "1994": 17.2, "1995": 18.43, "1996": 22.12, "1997": 20.61, "1998": 14.42, "1999": 19.34, "2000": 30.38, "2001": 25.98, "2002": 26.18, "2003": 31.08, "2004": 41.51, "2005": 56.64, "2006": 66.05, "2007": 72.34, "2008": 99.67, "2009": 61.95, "2010": 79.48, "2011": 94.88, "2012": 94.05, "2013": 97.98, "2014": 93.17, "2015": 48.66, "2016": 43.29, "2017": 50.8, "2018": 65.23, "2019": 56.99, "2020": 39.16, "2021": 68.13, "2022": 94.9, "2023": 77.58, "2024": 76.63, "2025": 65.39 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_a.htm" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2001", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2001" }, "year": 2001, "published": "2001-07", "values": { "2001": 28.67, "2002": 27.73 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2006", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2006" }, "year": 2006, "published": "2006-07", "values": { "2006": 69.13, "2007": 68.92 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2011", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-07", "values": { "2011": 98.43, "2012": 102.5 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2016", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-07", "values": { "2016": 43.57, "2017": 52.15 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2021", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-07", "values": { "2021": 65.85, "2022": 62.97 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2026", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07", "values": { "2026": 76.26, "2027": 60.76 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2000, 2027 ], "src_key": "eia_steo", "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/" }, { "id": "usa_eia_steo_gas", "iso3": "USA", "section": "energy", "metric": "henry_hub_spot_mmbtu", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "долл. за млн БТЕ, в среднем за год", "en": "$ per million Btu, annual average", "dec": 2 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Газ в США: Минэнерго в июле 2021 года ждало цену $3,00 на 2022 год — вышло $6,45", "en": "US gas: in July 2021 the US EIA expected a price of $3.00 for 2022; the outcome was $6.45" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Газ в США (Хенри-Хаб): прогнозы Минэнерго США на следующий год и факт", "en": "US gas (Henry Hub): US EIA next-year forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "США · цена газа (Минэнерго США)", "en": "US · gas price (US EIA)" }, "note": { "ru": "14 прогнозов на следующий год (2010–2024): факт выше прогноза в 5 случаях, ниже — в 9; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,61 доллара за млн БТЕ. Сильнее всего недооценили в июле 2021: ждали на 2022 год $3,00, вышло $6,45. Сильнее всего переоценили в июле 2022: ждали на 2023 год $4,76, вышло $2,53. Прогноз — июльский выпуск краткосрочного прогноза Минэнерго США (Short-Term Energy Outlook) на следующий год, один прогноз в год; факт — среднегодовая цена по данным EIA.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 14 releases (2010–2024): the outcome above the forecast 5 times, below 9; typical error −0.61 $ per million Btu. The largest under-forecast in July 2021: $3.00 expected for 2022, the outcome was $6.45. The largest over-forecast in July 2022: $4.76 expected for 2023, the outcome was $2.53. Forecast: the July issue of the US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for the next year, one forecast a year; outcome: EIA’s annual average price." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (цены EIA)", "en": "Actual (EIA prices)" }, "values": { "1997": 2.49, "1998": 2.09, "1999": 2.27, "2000": 4.31, "2001": 3.96, "2002": 3.38, "2003": 5.47, "2004": 5.89, "2005": 8.69, "2006": 6.73, "2007": 6.97, "2008": 8.86, "2009": 3.94, "2010": 4.37, "2011": 4.0, "2012": 2.75, "2014": 4.37, "2015": 2.62, "2016": 2.52, "2017": 2.99, "2018": 3.15, "2019": 2.56, "2020": 2.03, "2021": 3.89, "2022": 6.45, "2023": 2.53, "2024": 2.19, "2025": 3.52 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhda.htm" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2010", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2010" }, "year": 2010, "published": "2010-07", "values": { "2010": 4.7, "2011": 5.17 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2013", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2013" }, "year": 2013, "published": "2013-07", "values": { "2013": 3.76, "2014": 3.91 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2016", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-07", "values": { "2016": 2.36, "2017": 2.95 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2020", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-07", "values": { "2020": 1.93, "2021": 3.1 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2023", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2023" }, "year": 2023, "published": "2023-07", "values": { "2023": 2.62, "2024": 3.29 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минэнерго США, июль 2026", "en": "US EIA, Jul 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-07", "values": { "2026": 3.67, "2027": 3.49 }, "src": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2009, 2027 ], "src_key": "eia_steo", "source_page": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/" }, { "id": "jpn_cao_gdp_growth", "iso3": "JPN", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (реальный ВВП, финансовый год апрель–март)", "en": "% (real GDP, fiscal year April–March)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Япония: правительство в декабре 2000 года ждало рост ВВП 1,7% на 2001 год — вышло −0,8%", "en": "Japan: in December 2000 the government expected GDP growth of 1.7% for 2001; the outcome was −0.8%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Япония: рост ВВП — прогнозы правительства и факт", "en": "Japan: GDP growth — government outlooks vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Япония · рост ВВП (правительство)", "en": "Japan · GDP growth (government)" }, "note": { "ru": "24 прогноза на следующий год (1998–2024): факт выше прогноза в 6 случаях, ниже — в 18; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 0,90 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в декабре 2009: ждали на 2010 год 1,4%, вышло 3,4%. Сильнее всего переоценили в декабре 2007: ждали на 2008 год 2,0%, вышло −3,3%. Прогноз — декабрьское решение кабинета (閣議了解) о прогнозе на следующий финансовый год; январское решение (閣議決定) с ним совпадает. Год в таблице — начало финансового года.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 24 releases (1998–2024): the outcome above the forecast 6 times, below 18; typical error −0.90 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in December 2009: 1.4% expected for 2010, the outcome was 3.4%. The largest over-forecast in December 2007: 2.0% expected for 2008, the outcome was −3.3%. Forecast: the December cabinet understanding (閣議了解) on the next fiscal year; the January cabinet decision (閣議決定) gives the same figures. The year is the start of the fiscal year." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (ESRI, последние данные)", "en": "Actual (ESRI, latest data)" }, "values": { "1995": 3.0, "1996": 3.0, "1997": 0.0, "1998": -1.4, "1999": 0.7, "2000": 2.8, "2001": -0.8, "2002": 0.8, "2003": 1.9, "2004": 1.6, "2005": 2.3, "2006": 1.5, "2007": 1.2, "2008": -3.3, "2009": -3.1, "2010": 3.4, "2011": 0.5, "2012": 0.8, "2013": 2.8, "2014": 0.3, "2015": 1.8, "2016": 0.6, "2017": 1.8, "2018": 0.6, "2019": -0.9, "2020": -3.7, "2021": 3.8, "2022": 1.5, "2023": 0.1, "2024": 0.7, "2025": 0.9 }, "src": "https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/data/data_list/sokuhou/files/2026/qe262_2/gdemenuja.html" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Кабинет министров, дек. 1998", "en": "Cabinet, Dec 1998" }, "year": 1998, "published": "1998-12-20", "values": { "1999": 0.5 }, "src": "https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/mitoshi/r071224mitoshi.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Кабинет министров, дек. 2004", "en": "Cabinet, Dec 2004" }, "year": 2004, "published": "2004-12-20", "values": { "2005": 1.6 }, "src": "https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/mitoshi/r071224mitoshi.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Кабинет министров, дек. 2009", "en": "Cabinet, Dec 2009" }, "year": 2009, "published": "2009-12-25", "values": { "2010": 1.4 }, "src": "https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/mitoshi/r071224mitoshi.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Кабинет министров, дек. 2015", "en": "Cabinet, Dec 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-12-22", "values": { "2016": 1.7 }, "src": "https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/mitoshi/r071224mitoshi.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Кабинет министров, дек. 2020", "en": "Cabinet, Dec 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-12-18", "values": { "2021": 4.0 }, "src": "https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/mitoshi/r071224mitoshi.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Кабинет министров, дек. 2025", "en": "Cabinet, Dec 2025" }, "year": 2025, "published": "2025-12-24", "values": { "2026": 1.3 }, "src": "https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/mitoshi/r071224mitoshi.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 1995, 2027 ], "view": "c=JPN&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=1995", "src_key": "jpn_outlook", "source_page": "https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/mitoshi/mitoshi.html" }, { "id": "rus_minfin_usdrub", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "economy", "metric": "usdrub_avg", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "₽ за доллар, в среднем за год", "en": "₽ per $, annual average", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Россия: Минфин в июле 2014 года закладывал курс доллара 37,0 ₽ на 2015 год — вышло 61,3 ₽", "en": "Russia: in July 2014 the Ministry of Finance expected the dollar rate of 37.0 ₽ for 2015; the outcome was 61.3 ₽" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: курс доллара — допущения бюджета и факт", "en": "Russia: dollar rate — budget assumptions vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · курс доллара (бюджет)", "en": "Russia · dollar rate (budget)" }, "note": { "ru": "17 прогнозов на следующий год (2008–2024): факт выше прогноза в 12 случаях, ниже — в 5; обычно факт выше прогноза на 2,21 ₽. Сильнее всего недооценили в июле 2014: ждали на 2015 год 37,0 ₽, вышло 61,3 ₽. Сильнее всего переоценили в сентябре 2024: ждали на 2025 год 96,5 ₽, вышло 83,2 ₽. Допущения бюджета — базовый прогноз из «Основных направлений бюджетной политики» Минфина (2009–2026), закона о бюджете на 2009 год и сценарных условий Минэкономразвития 2015 года.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 17 releases (2008–2024): the outcome above the forecast 12 times, below 5; typical error +2.21 ₽. The largest under-forecast in July 2014: 37.0 ₽ expected for 2015, the outcome was 61.3 ₽. The largest over-forecast in September 2024: 96.5 ₽ expected for 2025, the outcome was 83.2 ₽. Budget assumptions: the base forecast of the Ministry of Finance’s budget policy guidelines (2009–2026), the 2009 budget law and the Ministry of Economic Development’s 2015 scenario." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (Банк России, Минэкономразвития, МВФ)", "en": "Actual (Bank of Russia, Ministry of Economic Development, IMF)" }, "values": { "2008": 24.87, "2009": 31.77, "2010": 30.38, "2011": 29.39, "2012": 31.07, "2013": 31.91, "2014": 38.6, "2015": 61.32, "2016": 66.83, "2017": 58.3, "2018": 62.93, "2019": 64.62, "2020": 72.32, "2021": 73.67, "2022": 68.35, "2023": 85.81, "2024": 92.66, "2025": 83.21 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/scripts/XML_dynamic.asp?date_req1=01/01/2006&date_req2=31/12/2026&VAL_NM_RQ=R01235" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, нояб. 2008", "en": "MinFin, Nov 2008" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2008-11-24", "values": { "2009": 24.7, "2010": 26.0, "2011": 27.3 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, июль 2012", "en": "MinFin, Jul 2012" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2012-07", "values": { "2013": 29.7, "2014": 30.5, "2015": 31.5 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, сент. 2015", "en": "MinFin, Sep 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-09", "values": { "2016": 63.3, "2017": 63.1, "2018": 62.5 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2019", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-10", "values": { "2020": 65.7, "2021": 66.1, "2022": 66.5 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2022", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-10", "values": { "2023": 68.3, "2024": 70.9, "2025": 72.2 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2026", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-10", "values": { "2027": 87.4, "2028": 92.0, "2029": 96.0 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2008, 2029 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=inflation&past=1&from=2008", "src_key": "rus_minek", "source_page": null }, { "id": "rus_minfin_urals", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "economy", "metric": "urals_usd", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "долл. за баррель", "en": "$ a barrel", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Россия: Минфин в июле 2014 года закладывал цену нефти Urals $100,0 на 2015 год — вышло $51,2", "en": "Russia: in July 2014 the Ministry of Finance expected the Urals oil price of $100.0 for 2015; the outcome was $51.2" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: нефть Urals — допущения бюджета и факт", "en": "Russia: Urals oil — budget assumptions vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · нефть (бюджет)", "en": "Russia · Urals oil (budget)" }, "note": { "ru": "15 прогнозов на следующий год (2008–2022): факт выше прогноза в 9 случаях, ниже — в 6; обычно факт выше прогноза на 10,90 доллара за баррель. Сильнее всего недооценили в августе 2010: ждали на 2011 год $75,0, вышло $109,3. Сильнее всего переоценили в июле 2014: ждали на 2015 год $100,0, вышло $51,2. Допущения бюджета — базовый прогноз из «Основных направлений бюджетной политики» Минфина (2009–2026), закона о бюджете на 2009 год и сценарных условий Минэкономразвития 2015 года.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 15 releases (2008–2022): the outcome above the forecast 9 times, below 6; typical error +10.90 dollars a barrel. The largest under-forecast in August 2010: $75.0 expected for 2011, the outcome was $109.3. The largest over-forecast in July 2014: $100.0 expected for 2015, the outcome was $51.2. Budget assumptions: the base forecast of the Ministry of Finance’s budget policy guidelines (2009–2026), the 2009 budget law and the Ministry of Economic Development’s 2015 scenario." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (Банк России, Минэкономразвития, МВФ)", "en": "Actual (Bank of Russia, Ministry of Economic Development, IMF)" }, "values": { "2009": 61.1, "2010": 78.2, "2011": 109.3, "2012": 110.5, "2013": 107.9, "2014": 97.6, "2015": 51.2, "2016": 41.7, "2017": 53.0, "2018": 70.0, "2019": 63.8, "2020": 41.4, "2021": 69.1, "2022": 77.5, "2023": 62.9, "2024": 67.9, "2025": 55.6 }, "src": "https://economy.gov.ru/material/departments/d12/konyunktura_mirovyh_tovarnyh_rynkov/o_srednem_urovne_cen_nefti_sorta_yurals_za_dekabr_2025_goda.html" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, нояб. 2008", "en": "MinFin, Nov 2008" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2008-11-24", "values": { "2009": 95.0, "2010": 90.0, "2011": 88.0 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2022/11/main/2023-2025.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, июль 2011", "en": "MinFin, Jul 2011" }, "year": 2011, "published": "2011-07", "values": { "2012": 93.0, "2013": 95.0, "2014": 97.0 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2022/11/main/2023-2025.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, июль 2014", "en": "MinFin, Jul 2014" }, "year": 2014, "published": "2014-07", "values": { "2015": 100.0, "2016": 100.0, "2017": 100.0 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2022/11/main/2023-2025.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2016", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2016" }, "year": 2016, "published": "2016-10", "values": { "2017": 40.0, "2018": 40.0, "2019": 40.0 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2022/11/main/2023-2025.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2019", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-10", "values": { "2020": 57.0, "2021": 56.0, "2022": 55.0 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2022/11/main/2023-2025.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2022", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-10", "values": { "2023": 70.1, "2024": 67.5, "2025": 65.0 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2022/11/main/2023-2025.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2008, 2029 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=inflation&past=1&from=2008", "src_key": "rus_minek", "source_page": null }, { "id": "rus_minfin_gdp", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "economy", "metric": "gdp_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% к предыдущему году", "en": "% on the previous year", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Россия: Минфин в ноябре 2008 года закладывал рост ВВП 6,7% на 2009 год — вышло −7,8%", "en": "Russia: in November 2008 the Ministry of Finance expected GDP growth of 6.7% for 2009; the outcome was −7.8%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: рост ВВП — допущения бюджета и факт", "en": "Russia: GDP growth — budget assumptions vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · рост ВВП (бюджет)", "en": "Russia · GDP growth (budget)" }, "note": { "ru": "17 прогнозов на следующий год (2008–2024): факт выше прогноза в 9 случаях, ниже — в 8; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,52 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в октябре 2022: ждали на 2023 год −0,8%, вышло 4,1%. Сильнее всего переоценили в ноябре 2008: ждали на 2009 год 6,7%, вышло −7,8%. Допущения бюджета — базовый прогноз из «Основных направлений бюджетной политики» Минфина (2009–2026), закона о бюджете на 2009 год и сценарных условий Минэкономразвития 2015 года.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 17 releases (2008–2024): the outcome above the forecast 9 times, below 8; typical error +0.52 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in October 2022: −0.8% expected for 2023, the outcome was 4.1%. The largest over-forecast in November 2008: 6.7% expected for 2009, the outcome was −7.8%. Budget assumptions: the base forecast of the Ministry of Finance’s budget policy guidelines (2009–2026), the 2009 budget law and the Ministry of Economic Development’s 2015 scenario." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (Банк России, Минэкономразвития, МВФ)", "en": "Actual (Bank of Russia, Ministry of Economic Development, IMF)" }, "values": { "1993": -8.7, "1994": -12.7, "1995": -4.1, "1996": -3.581, "1997": 1.376, "1998": -5.319, "1999": 6.347, "2000": 10.054, "2001": 5.082, "2002": 4.746, "2003": 7.356, "2004": 7.145, "2005": 6.397, "2006": 8.165, "2007": 8.55, "2008": 5.247, "2009": -7.821, "2010": 4.512, "2011": 3.995, "2012": 4.024, "2013": 1.755, "2014": 0.736, "2015": -1.973, "2016": 0.194, "2017": 1.827, "2018": 2.806, "2019": 2.198, "2020": -2.654, "2021": 5.866, "2022": -1.435, "2023": 4.067, "2024": 4.922, "2025": 0.981 }, "src": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/weo-database/2026/april" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, нояб. 2008", "en": "MinFin, Nov 2008" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2008-11-24", "values": { "2009": 6.7 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, июль 2012", "en": "MinFin, Jul 2012" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2012-07", "values": { "2013": 3.8, "2015": 4.7 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, сент. 2015", "en": "MinFin, Sep 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-09", "values": { "2016": 0.7, "2017": 1.9, "2018": 2.4 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2019", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-10", "values": { "2020": 1.7, "2021": 3.1, "2022": 3.2 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2022", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-10", "values": { "2023": -0.8, "2024": 2.6, "2025": 2.6 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2026", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-10", "values": { "2027": 1.4, "2028": 1.9, "2029": 2.4 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2008, 2029 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=gdp_growth&past=1&from=2008", "src_key": "rus_minek", "source_page": null }, { "id": "rus_minfin_cpi", "iso3": "RUS", "section": "economy", "metric": "inflation", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (декабрь к декабрю)", "en": "% (December over December)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Россия: Минфин в декабре 2021 года закладывал инфляцию 4,0% на 2022 год — вышло 11,9%", "en": "Russia: in December 2021 the Ministry of Finance expected inflation of 4.0% for 2022; the outcome was 11.9%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Россия: инфляция — допущения бюджета и факт", "en": "Russia: inflation — budget assumptions vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Россия · инфляция (бюджет)", "en": "Russia · inflation (budget)" }, "note": { "ru": "17 прогнозов на следующий год (2008–2024): факт выше прогноза в 12 случаях, ниже — в 5; обычно факт выше прогноза на 0,97 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего недооценили в декабре 2021: ждали на 2022 год 4,0%, вышло 11,9%. Сильнее всего переоценили в декабре 2016: ждали на 2017 год 4,0%, вышло 2,5%. Допущения бюджета — базовый прогноз из «Основных направлений бюджетной политики» Минфина (2009–2026), закона о бюджете на 2009 год и сценарных условий Минэкономразвития 2015 года.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 17 releases (2008–2024): the outcome above the forecast 12 times, below 5; typical error +0.97 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in December 2021: 4.0% expected for 2022, the outcome was 11.9%. The largest over-forecast in December 2016: 4.0% expected for 2017, the outcome was 2.5%. Budget assumptions: the base forecast of the Ministry of Finance’s budget policy guidelines (2009–2026), the 2009 budget law and the Ministry of Economic Development’s 2015 scenario." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (Банк России, Минэкономразвития, МВФ)", "en": "Actual (Bank of Russia, Ministry of Economic Development, IMF)" }, "values": { "2009": 8.8, "2010": 8.8, "2011": 6.1, "2012": 6.6, "2013": 6.47, "2014": 11.35, "2015": 12.9, "2016": 5.4, "2017": 2.5, "2018": 4.3, "2019": 3.0, "2020": 4.9, "2021": 8.39, "2022": 11.94, "2023": 7.42, "2024": 9.52, "2025": 5.59 }, "src": "https://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/infl/" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, нояб. 2008", "en": "MinFin, Nov 2008" }, "year": 2008, "published": "2008-11-24", "values": { "2009": 8.5 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, дек. 2012", "en": "MinFin, Dec 2012" }, "year": 2012, "published": "2012-12-03", "values": { "2013": 5.5 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, дек. 2015", "en": "MinFin, Dec 2015" }, "year": 2015, "published": "2015-12-14", "values": { "2016": 6.4 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, дек. 2019", "en": "MinFin, Dec 2019" }, "year": 2019, "published": "2019-12-02", "values": { "2020": 3.0 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, дек. 2022", "en": "MinFin, Dec 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-12-05", "values": { "2023": 5.5 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Минфин, окт. 2026", "en": "MinFin, Oct 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-10", "values": { "2027": 4.0, "2028": 4.0, "2029": 4.0 }, "src": "https://minfin.gov.ru/common/upload/library/2026/10/main/Osnovnye_napravleniya.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2008, 2029 ], "view": "c=RUS&i=inflation&past=1&from=2008", "src_key": "rus_minek", "source_page": null }, { "id": "wld_worldsteel_demand", "iso3": null, "section": "economy", "metric": "steel_demand_growth", "unit": "num", "unit_spec": { "ru": "% (рост мирового потребления стали за год)", "en": "% (annual growth of world steel use)", "dec": 1 }, "definition": null, "headline": { "ru": "Сталь: Всемирная ассоциация стали в апреле 2021 года ждала рост спроса 2,7% на 2022 год — вышло −3,3%", "en": "Steel: in April 2021 the World Steel Association expected demand growth of 2.7% for 2022; the outcome was −3.3%" }, "gap_kind": "diff", "hit": false, "compare": "next_year", "compare_offset": 1, "direction": 1, "title": { "ru": "Мир: спрос на сталь — прогнозы Всемирной ассоциации стали на следующий год и факт", "en": "World: steel demand — worldsteel next-year forecasts vs actual" }, "short": { "ru": "Мир · спрос на сталь", "en": "World · steel demand (worldsteel)" }, "note": { "ru": "12 прогнозов на следующий год (2019–2024): во всех 12 факт оказался ниже прогноза; обычно факт ниже прогноза на 3,05 процентного пункта. Сильнее всего переоценили в апреле 2021: ждали на 2022 год 2,7%, вышло −3,3%. Прогноз и факт — мировое видимое потребление готового проката по краткосрочным прогнозам Всемирной ассоциации стали (Short Range Outlook), выпуски 2019–2024; факт — рост года в выпуске следующего года. Источник: World Steel Association.", "en": "Next-year forecasts of 12 releases (2019–2024): the outcome came in below the forecast in all 12; typical error −3.05 percentage points. The largest over-forecast in April 2021: 2.7% expected for 2022, the outcome was −3.3%. Forecast and outcome: world apparent use of finished steel in the World Steel Association’s Short Range Outlook, releases 2019–2024; outcome: the year’s growth in the following year’s release. Source: World Steel Association." }, "actual": { "label": { "ru": "Факт (оценка ассоциации годом позже)", "en": "Actual (worldsteel estimate a year later)" }, "values": { "2020": 0.1, "2021": 2.8, "2022": -3.3, "2023": -0.8, "2024": -1.6, "2025": -1.9 }, "src": "https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/worldsteel-Short-Range-Outlook-April-2026_table.pdf" }, "proj": [ { "label": { "ru": "Ассоциация стали, апр. 2018", "en": "worldsteel, Apr 2018" }, "year": 2018, "published": "2018-04", "values": { "2018": 1.8, "2019": 0.7 }, "src": "https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/worldsteel-Short-Range-Outlook-April-2026_table.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Ассоциация стали, июнь 2020", "en": "worldsteel, Jun 2020" }, "year": 2020, "published": "2020-06", "values": { "2020": -6.4, "2021": 3.8 }, "src": "https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/worldsteel-Short-Range-Outlook-April-2026_table.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Ассоциация стали, окт. 2021", "en": "worldsteel, Oct 2021" }, "year": 2021, "published": "2021-10", "values": { "2021": 4.5, "2022": 2.2 }, "src": "https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/worldsteel-Short-Range-Outlook-April-2026_table.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Ассоциация стали, окт. 2022", "en": "worldsteel, Oct 2022" }, "year": 2022, "published": "2022-10", "values": { "2022": -2.3, "2023": 1.0 }, "src": "https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/worldsteel-Short-Range-Outlook-April-2026_table.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Ассоциация стали, апр. 2024", "en": "worldsteel, Apr 2024" }, "year": 2024, "published": "2024-04", "values": { "2024": 1.7, "2025": 1.2 }, "src": "https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/worldsteel-Short-Range-Outlook-April-2026_table.pdf" }, { "label": { "ru": "Ассоциация стали, апр. 2026", "en": "worldsteel, Apr 2026" }, "year": 2026, "published": "2026-04", "values": { "2026": 0.3, "2027": 2.2 }, "src": "https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/worldsteel-Short-Range-Outlook-April-2026_table.pdf" } ], "xRange": [ 2018, 2027 ], 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