{"locations":[{"code":"ZAF","name":"South Africa","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/south-africa/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.03 in 1950 → 2.22 in 2023 (−63%). The trend broke around 1970 and 2001: −0.02 → −0.11 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.032,"last":2.216,"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":-0.0181,"slope_after":-0.106},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.106,"slope_after":-0.0125}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 534k in 1950 → 1.19M in 2023 (+122%). The trend broke around 1988 and 1999: +19k → −13.4k → +6.73k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":534.1,"last":1187,"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":19,"slope_after":-13.4},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-13.4,"slope_after":6.73}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 78.4% in 2024 (+78 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2009, above 50% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 10% → 49%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":78.3576,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":10,"end":49}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 46.7% in 1960 → 63.8% in 2025 (+17 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1987. The trend broke around 1986 and 2011: +0.09 → +0.55 → +0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":46.6927,"last":63.8154,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1987,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":0.0853,"slope_after":0.552},{"year":2011,"slope_before":0.552,"slope_after":0.0641}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 10,811 PPP dollars in 1990 → 13,592 PPP dollars in 2025 (+26%). Low: 9,977 PPP dollars in 1993; +36% since then. The trend broke around 1998 and 2011: +25 → +332 → −94 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":10811.1515,"last":13592.0484,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":9976.9651},"breaks":[{"year":1998,"slope_before":24.5,"slope_after":332},{"year":2011,"slope_before":332,"slope_after":-94.1}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 4.35 → 2.73. Over the same years: births 1.24M → 1.09M; internet 1.6% (1997); urban share 50.1% → 54%; GDP per person (PPP) 10,770 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":4.352,"end":2.734,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":1239,"end":1092},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":1.63},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":50.0986,"end":54.004},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":10770.278}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.43 → 2.22; births 1.2M → 1.19M; internet 46.5% → 78.3%; urban share 63.1% → 63.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 14,681 PPP dollars → 13,695 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.428,"end":2.216,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1197,"end":1187},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":46.5,"end":78.3367},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":63.0524,"end":63.5824},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":14681.0966,"end":13695.3756}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.65). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.827,"r_changes":0.651,"effective_pairs_changes":47,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.10).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.634,"r_changes":-0.103,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.922,"r_changes":-0.113,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.72); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.39).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.718,"r_changes":0.39,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (13,700 PPP dollars) typically have 2.22; here it is 2.22, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":13700,"yv":2.216,"expected":2.22,"pct":49,"lower":96,"higher":100,"z":-0.01}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (13,600 PPP dollars) typically have 69.3%; here it is 78.4%, higher than in 80% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":13600,"yv":78.36,"expected":69.3,"pct":80,"lower":141,"higher":35,"z":0.82}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1987; fertility below 3: 1996; half the population online: 2015. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1987,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1996,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2015,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −0.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.2,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":3.5},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":8.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.096,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":8.64},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.343,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":-2.81},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.343,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":-2.81},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.295,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":-0.78},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.244,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":1.48},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.28,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":-0.13},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.282,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":-0.21},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.414,"actual":2.2771,"gap_pct":-5.67},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.317,"actual":2.216,"gap_pct":-4.36}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-0.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.22) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.216,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"year_expected_by":null,"years":11,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.22, 2023) only by 2028: reality is at least 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.216,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"year_expected_by":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.89 (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.74 (−21% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.216},"values":{"2050":1.893,"2100":1.744},"low_2100":1.244}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":913.843,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":27.81},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":831.301,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":40.5},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":854.855,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":36.63},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":966.05,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":20.9},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1012.031,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":15.41},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1025.747,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":13.87},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1001.458,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":16.63},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1063.016,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":9.88},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1098.098,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":6.37},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1166.728,"actual":1168,"gap_pct":0.11},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1140.735,"actual":1187,"gap_pct":4.06}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":15.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.14M (−4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.1M (−7% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 497k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1187},"values":{"2050":1142,"2100":1102},"low_2100":496.9}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1980–1988 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 13 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Uzbekistan, Dominican Republic, Kyrgyzstan, Gabon, Turkmenistan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +5.8%, 1–5 years after it +1.8%, 6–10 years after +1.5%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.18, 1–5 years after it +0.02, 6–10 years after −0.26.","data":{"episode":"ZAF-1980","kind":"modern","from":1980,"to":1988,"battle_deaths":13011,"peers":["UZB","DOM","KGZ","GAB","TKM","BRA","BOL","FJI","GUY","CAF"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":5.78,"own":8.14,"years":9},"p1_5":{"gap":1.83,"own":0.66,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.54,"own":-11.15,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.183,"own":0.242,"years":9},"p1_5":{"gap":0.015,"own":0.03,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.262,"own":-0.156,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.52,"own":2.08,"years":9},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.5,"own":0.17,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.51,"own":-0.81,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=ZAF&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}