{"locations":[{"code":"XKX","name":"Kosovo","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/kosovo/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.95 in 1950 → 1.55 in 2023 (−78%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2011. The trend broke around 1987 and 1993: −0.08 → −0.22 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.953,"last":1.545,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2011,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":-0.0805,"slope_after":-0.224},{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.224,"slope_after":-0.0432}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 34.7k in 1950 → 20.5k in 2023 (−41%). Peak: 61.2k in 1988; the latest value is 66% lower. The trend broke around 1987 and 1999: +0.66k → −1.76k → −0.77k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":34.71,"last":20.51,"peak":{"year":1988,"value":61.19},"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.661,"slope_after":-1.76},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-1.76,"slope_after":-0.772}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 83.9% in 2017 → 89.4% in 2018 (+5.5 pp).","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":2017,"to":2018,"first":83.8936,"last":89.443}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 19.1% in 1960 → 50.9% in 2025 (+32 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2024. The trend broke around 1987 and 2014: +0.63 → +0.07 → +1.2 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":19.0836,"last":50.9261,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.628,"slope_after":0.0697},{"year":2014,"slope_before":0.0697,"slope_after":1.16}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 7,098 PPP dollars in 2008 → 16,461 PPP dollars in 2025 (+132%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2008,"to":2025,"first":7098.403,"last":16461.2944}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1984–1994: 4.41 → 2.52. Over the same years: births 59.4k → 44.3k; urban share 34.3% → 37.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1984,"to":1994,"start":4.406,"end":2.524,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1984,"to":1994,"start":59.35,"end":44.34},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1984,"to":1994,"start":34.2868,"end":37.2551},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.95 → 1.55; births 29.9k → 20.5k; urban share 38.6% → 49.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,828 PPP dollars → 14,240 PPP dollars; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.953,"end":1.545,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":29.9,"end":20.51},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":38.6252,"end":49.1106},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":8828.2768,"end":14240.203}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.48); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.45).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.484,"r_changes":0.446,"effective_pairs_changes":63,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.944,"r_changes":0.101,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2008–2023, 16 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2008,"to":2023,"years":16,"r_levels":-0.911,"r_changes":-0.195,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (14,240 PPP dollars) typically have 2.19; here it is 1.55, lower than in 90% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":14240,"yv":1.545,"expected":2.19,"pct":10,"lower":20,"higher":176,"z":-1.32}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1992; fertility below 2.1: 2011; half the population online: already in 2017; urban majority: 2024. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1992,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2011,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2017,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":2024,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +2.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.507,"actual":1.545,"gap_pct":2.52}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":2.52,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.51 (−2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.56 (+1% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.06.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.545},"values":{"2050":1.51,"2100":1.557},"low_2100":1.057}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":18.549,"actual":20.51,"gap_pct":10.57}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":10.57,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 13.3k (−35% vs 2023), 2100 — 7.46k (−64% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.95k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":20.51},"values":{"2050":13.26,"2100":7.455},"low_2100":1.947}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1998–1999 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,754 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Albania, Uruguay, Tunisia, Réunion, Vietnam and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +9.2%, 1–5 years after it −0.3%, 6–10 years after +14%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.65, 1–5 years after it +1.39, 6–10 years after +1.94.","data":{"episode":"XKX-1998","kind":"modern","from":1998,"to":1999,"battle_deaths":1754,"peers":["ALB","URY","TUN","REU","VNM","CHL","IRL","PRI","BRA","MNG"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":9.17,"own":4.91,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.25,"own":-2.1,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":14.47,"own":22.54,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.646,"own":0.628,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":1.39,"own":1.513,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.936,"own":2.182,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":4.93,"own":4.59,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":5.82,"own":6.85,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":11.69,"own":14.35,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=XKX&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}