{"locations":[{"code":"VNM","name":"Vietnam","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/vietnam/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.15 in 1950 → 1.93 in 2025 (−63%). Peak: 6.39 in 1963; the latest value is 70% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2016. The trend broke around 1970 and 2000: +0.05 → −0.15 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":5.147,"last":1.93,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":6.385},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2016,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.0486,"slope_after":-0.145},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.145,"slope_after":-0.00146}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 973k in 1950 → 1.39M in 2023 (+43%). Peak: 1.92M in 1984; the latest value is 28% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 1998: +23.7k → −69.4k → +5.8k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":973.3,"last":1388,"peak":{"year":1984,"value":1923},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":23.7,"slope_after":-69.4},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-69.4,"slope_after":5.8}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 84.2% in 2024 (+84 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2013–2018: 38.5% → 69.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":84.15,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2013,"to":2018,"start":38.5,"end":69.8479}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 15.3% in 1960 → 38.8% in 2025 (+24 pp). The trend broke around 1969 and 1990: +0.64 → −0.09 → +0.57 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":15.2655,"last":38.8299,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.642,"slope_after":-0.0905},{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.0905,"slope_after":0.569}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,468 PPP dollars in 1990 → 15,457 PPP dollars in 2025 (×6.3). The trend broke around 2014: change sped up (+318 → +572 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2467.9646,"last":15457.3499,"breaks":[{"year":2014,"slope_before":318,"slope_after":572}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1989–1999: 3.64 → 2.00. Over the same years: births 1.86M → 1.34M; internet 0% → 0.1%; urban share 19.1% → 23.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,468 PPP dollars → 4,119 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":3.641,"end":1.999,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":1863,"end":1342},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":0,"end":0.129},{"id":"urban_population","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":19.0531,"end":23.8212},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":2467.9646,"end":4119.0537}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 2.10 → 1.93; births 1.72M (2015); internet 45% → 84.2%; urban share 32.4% → 38.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,248 PPP dollars → 15,457 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":2.1,"end":1.93,"others":[{"id":"births","year":2015,"value":1717},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":45,"end":84.15},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":32.3811,"end":38.8299},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":9248.024,"end":15457.3499}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.21); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.83). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.209,"r_changes":0.833,"effective_pairs_changes":54,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 30 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.35); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.37).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.348,"r_changes":-0.367,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.776,"r_changes":0.116,"effective_pairs_changes":62,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.59); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.30).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.591,"r_changes":-0.305,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (13,530 PPP dollars) typically have 2.23; here it is 1.96, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":13530,"yv":1.96,"expected":2.23,"pct":33,"lower":65,"higher":131,"z":-0.49}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (14,400 PPP dollars) typically have 70.4%; here it is 84.2%, higher than in 93% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":14400,"yv":84.15,"expected":70.4,"pct":92,"lower":163,"higher":13,"z":1.23}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1994; fertility below 2.1: 1998; half the population online: 2016. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1994,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1998,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2016,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +0.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":-7.79},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":-7.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.913,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":1.23},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":4.68},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":4.68},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":4.68},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.583,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":22.33},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.619,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":19.61},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.942,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":-0.28},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.934,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":0.13},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.019,"actual":1.9365,"gap_pct":-4.09},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.919,"actual":1.93,"gap_pct":0.57}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":0.9,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.75 (−10% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.70 (−12% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.20.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.93},"values":{"2050":1.745,"2100":1.704},"low_2100":1.204}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1770.427,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-11.64},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1761.776,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-11.21},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1668.538,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-6.25},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1567.334,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-0.19},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1582.926,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-1.18},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1447.326,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":8.08},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1330.33,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":17.59},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1336.043,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":17.08},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1550.815,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":0.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1558.577,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":0.37},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1418.89,"actual":1388,"gap_pct":-2.18}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (1.39M, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1388,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.39M, 2023) only by 2025: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1388,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.15M (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 783k (−44% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 268k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1388},"values":{"2050":1147,"2100":783},"low_2100":268.3}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1979–1979 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 45 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Uzbekistan, Mexico, Ecuador, Kuwait, Turkmenistan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −1.1%, 1–5 years after it −2.4%, 6–10 years after −11%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.17, 1–5 years after it −0.19, 6–10 years after −0.45.","data":{"episode":"VNM-1979","kind":"modern","from":1979,"to":1979,"battle_deaths":45000,"peers":["UZB","MEX","ECU","KWT","TKM","XKX","NPL","KGZ","DOM","GAB"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-1.13,"own":-1.38,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-2.42,"own":-2.15,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-10.57,"own":-11.38,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.166,"own":-0.214,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.193,"own":-0.227,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.453,"own":-0.449,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.48,"own":-0.57,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.15,"own":-0.75,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-4.89,"own":-3.62,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=VNM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}