{"locations":[{"code":"TUR","name":"Turkey","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/turkey/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.47 in 1950 → 1.42 in 2025 (−78%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2017, below 1.5 since 2024. The trend broke around 1965 and 1993: −0.01 → −0.13 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":6.468,"last":1.42,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2017,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2024,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":-0.0105,"slope_after":-0.126},{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.126,"slope_after":-0.0387}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 983k in 1950 → 895k in 2025 (−9%). Peak: 1.53M in 1981; the latest value is 42% lower. The trend broke around 1971 and 2018: +25.5k → −5.08k → −60.9k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":982.5,"last":895.374,"peak":{"year":1981,"value":1533},"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":25.5,"slope_after":-5.08},{"year":2018,"slope_before":-5.08,"slope_after":-60.9}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.8% in 2025 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2006–2011: 18.2% → 43.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":89.7702,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2006,"to":2011,"start":18.24,"end":43.0657}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 23.4% in 1960 → 89.5% in 2025 (+66 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1989, above 75% since 2013. The trend broke around 2010 and 2016: +0.94 → +3.3 → +0.07 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":23.4346,"last":89.4941,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1989,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2010,"slope_before":0.945,"slope_after":3.33},{"year":2016,"slope_before":3.33,"slope_after":0.0661}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 12,184 PPP dollars in 1990 → 37,301 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.1). The trend broke around 2002 and 2019: +218 → +827 → +1,456 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":12184.1996,"last":37300.7486,"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":218,"slope_after":827},{"year":2019,"slope_before":827,"slope_after":1460}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1973–1983: 5.41 → 4.06. Over the same years: births 1.51M → 1.51M; urban share 33.4% → 43.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":5.41,"end":4.056,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":1509,"end":1513},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":33.372,"end":43.2264},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 2.16 → 1.42; births 1.39M → 895k; internet 53.7% → 89.8%; urban share 87.2% → 89.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 25,985 PPP dollars → 37,301 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":2.157,"end":1.42,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1389,"end":895.374},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":53.745,"end":89.7702},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":87.2167,"end":89.4941},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":25984.8027,"end":37300.7486}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.05); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.69). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.05,"r_changes":0.693,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2025, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.905,"r_changes":0.063,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.31). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.932,"r_changes":0.307,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.907,"r_changes":0.166,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (35,070 PPP dollars) typically have 1.61; here it is 1.52, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":35070,"yv":1.52,"expected":1.61,"pct":44,"lower":86,"higher":110,"z":-0.21}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (36,150 PPP dollars) typically have 88.2%; here it is 87.3%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":36150,"yv":87.31,"expected":88.2,"pct":48,"lower":85,"higher":91,"z":-0.08}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1989; fertility below 3: 1992; fertility below 2.1: 2010; half the population online: 2014. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1989,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1992,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2010,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2014,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-24.36},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-24.36},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-14.14},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.029,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-21.72},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.913,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-16.97},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.902,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-16.49},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.825,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-12.96},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.89,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-15.96},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.924,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-17.44},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.942,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-18.21},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.994,"actual":1.5884,"gap_pct":-20.34},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.845,"actual":1.42,"gap_pct":-23.04}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-17.83,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (1.42, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.42,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.42, 2025) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.42,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.62 (+14% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.61 (+13% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.11.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.42},"values":{"2050":1.616,"2100":1.611},"low_2100":1.111}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −19%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1322.376,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-22.36},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1364.803,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-24.77},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1267.939,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-19.03},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1385.416,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-25.89},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1283.756,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-20.03},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1252.765,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-18.05},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1151.677,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-10.85},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1176.42,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-12.73},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1215.797,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-15.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1241.809,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-17.32},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1273.762,"actual":1026.6762,"gap_pct":-19.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1176.729,"actual":895.374,"gap_pct":-23.91}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-19.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (895k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":895.374,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (895k, 2025) only after 2050: reality is at least 26 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":895.374,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2051,"year_expected_by":2100,"years":26,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 895k, 15% below the UN 2024 medium variant (1.05M).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":1053,"actual_births_k":895.374,"gap_pct":-15,"un_lower95_births_k":884.3,"below_lower95":false,"source":"TurkStat (TÜİK), Birth Statistics 2025 (released 21 May 2026), table 'Basic fertility indicators, 2001-2025'","source_url":"https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/en/press/58018"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 848k (−5% vs 2025), 2100 — 444k (−50% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 120k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":895.374},"values":{"2050":847.5,"2100":444.4},"low_2100":120}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1992–1999 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 21 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Jamaica, Argentina, Albania, Costa Rica, Kazakhstan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +10%, 1–5 years after it +17%, 6–10 years after +17%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.34, 1–5 years after it +0.78, 6–10 years after +1.01.","data":{"episode":"TUR-1992","kind":"modern","from":1992,"to":1999,"battle_deaths":21123,"peers":["JAM","ARG","ALB","CRI","KAZ","MYS","ARM","GUY","BRA","TUN"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":10.14,"own":4.57,"years":8},"p1_5":{"gap":17.16,"own":-0.43,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":17.09,"own":0.93,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.335,"own":0.369,"years":8},"p1_5":{"gap":0.781,"own":0.72,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.008,"own":1.238,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":2.66,"own":2.27,"years":8},"p1_5":{"gap":4.81,"own":3.41,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":6.42,"own":5.85,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2016–2016 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,445 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Bahrain, Georgia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Nepal and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +8.3%, 1–5 years after it +0.8%, 6–10 years after −13%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.01, 1–5 years after it −0.21, 6–10 years after −0.48.","data":{"episode":"TUR-2016","kind":"modern","from":2016,"to":2016,"battle_deaths":1445,"peers":["BHR","GEO","VNM","LKA","NPL","KWT","QAT","MEX","PRK","ECU"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":8.32,"own":4.21,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.82,"own":-6.81,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-13.03,"own":-22.64,"years":2}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.008,"own":0.002,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.212,"own":-0.21,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.477,"own":-0.458,"years":2}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.91,"own":0.41,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.74,"own":-1.26,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-3.02,"own":-3.37,"years":2}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=TUR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}