{"locations":[{"code":"SYR","name":"Syria","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/syria/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.62 in 1950 → 2.71 in 2023 (−64%). The trend broke around 1978 and 2000: 0 → −0.16 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.618,"last":2.712,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.00422,"slope_after":-0.161},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.161,"slope_after":-0.0563}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 165k in 1950 → 522k in 2023 (×3.2). Peak: 659k in 2008; the latest value is 21% lower. The trend broke around 2011 and 2017: +7.85k → −45.9k → +26.9k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":164.9,"last":521.6,"peak":{"year":2008,"value":659.1},"breaks":[{"year":2011,"slope_before":7.85,"slope_after":-45.9},{"year":2017,"slope_before":-45.9,"slope_after":26.9}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 33.8% in 2018 (+34 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2007. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 5.6% → 20.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2018,"first":0,"last":33.77,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":5.6481,"end":20.7}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 40% in 1960 → 72.1% in 2025 (+32 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1995. The trend broke around 2009 and 2015: +0.28 → +3.7 → −0.54 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":40.0006,"last":72.0836,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1995,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2009,"slope_before":0.285,"slope_after":3.67},{"year":2015,"slope_before":3.67,"slope_after":-0.536}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 5,952 PPP dollars in 1990 → 4,579 PPP dollars in 2022 (−23%). Peak: 9,854 PPP dollars in 2011; the latest value is 54% lower. The trend broke around 2009 and 2015: +172 → −773 → −62 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2022,"first":5952.3583,"last":4579.4397,"peak":{"year":2011,"value":9854.0338},"breaks":[{"year":2009,"slope_before":172,"slope_after":-773},{"year":2015,"slope_before":-773,"slope_after":-61.7}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 6.20 → 4.37. Over the same years: births 459k → 500k; internet 0% (1997); urban share 48.3% → 50.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,299 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":6.201,"end":4.37,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":459,"end":500.4},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":0.0326},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":48.278,"end":50.7142},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":8299.1893}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.17 → 2.71; births 582k → 522k; internet 26.2% (2013); urban share 73.1% → 72.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,649 PPP dollars → 4,579 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.165,"end":2.712,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":582.2,"end":521.6},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":26.2},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":73.062,"end":72.1674},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2022,"start":5648.6021,"end":4579.4397}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.799,"r_changes":-0.001,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2018, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.37). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2018,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.826,"r_changes":0.371,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.851,"r_changes":0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2022, 33 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.26); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2022,"years":33,"r_levels":0.265,"r_changes":-0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1995; fertility below 3: 2017. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1995,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":2017,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.311,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":27.61},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.62,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":12.56},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.411,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":22.31},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.506,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":17.68},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.508,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":17.58},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.642,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":11.62},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.518,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":17.12},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.749,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":7.28},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.771,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":6.42},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.84,"actual":2.949,"gap_pct":3.84},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.673,"actual":2.712,"gap_pct":1.46}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":12.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (2.71) already around 2016: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.712,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"year_expected_by":null,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (2.71) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.712,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"year_expected_by":null,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.06 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.76 (−35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.26.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.712},"values":{"2050":2.055,"2100":1.756},"low_2100":1.256}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −22%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":475.219,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":-17.97},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":538.235,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":-27.57},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":501.186,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":-22.22},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":531.595,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":-26.67},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":522.397,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":-25.38},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":557.281,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":-30.05},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":479.109,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":-18.64},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":537.877,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":-27.53},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":418.572,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":-6.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":385.415,"actual":389.82,"gap_pct":1.14},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":490.781,"actual":521.6,"gap_pct":6.28}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-22.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (522k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":521.6,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (522k, 2023) only by 2024: reality is at least 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":521.6,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"year_expected_by":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 539k (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 434k (−17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 175k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":521.6},"values":{"2050":539.2,"2100":434.1},"low_2100":174.5}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1967–1967 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Saudi Arabia, Mongolia, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Niger and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +0.7%, 1–5 years after it +2.6%, 6–10 years after +5.1%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.05, 1–5 years after it +0.16, 6–10 years after +0.28.","data":{"episode":"SYR-1967","kind":"modern","from":1967,"to":1967,"battle_deaths":727,"peers":["SAU","MNG","KWT","AFG","NER","CIV","SEN","LBY","MWI","KEN"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":0.74,"own":0.27,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":2.64,"own":1.24,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":5.14,"own":2.52,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.045,"own":0.028,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.156,"own":0.058,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.284,"own":-0.054,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.37,"own":-0.03,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":1.06,"own":0.07,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.21,"own":-0.17,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1973–1973 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 4,634 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Mongolia, Niger, Algeria, Malawi, Zambia and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −0.2%, 1–5 years after it −0.3%, 6–10 years after −4.9%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.03, 1–5 years after it −0.12, 6–10 years after −0.44.","data":{"episode":"SYR-1973","kind":"modern","from":1973,"to":1973,"battle_deaths":4634,"peers":["MNG","NER","DZA","MWI","ZMB","JOR","SEN","MLI","BDI","CIV"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-0.18,"own":-0.13,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.28,"own":0.19,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-4.88,"own":-3.08,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.025,"own":-0.069,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.121,"own":-0.204,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.442,"own":-0.729,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.29,"own":-0.24,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.09,"own":-0.35,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-1.29,"own":-2.16,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1982–1982 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 2,000 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Jordan, Benin, Zambia, Madagascar, South Sudan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −2.8%, 1–5 years after it −3.4%, 6–10 years after −8.8%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.18, 1–5 years after it −0.26, 6–10 years after −0.54.","data":{"episode":"SYR-1982","kind":"modern","from":1982,"to":1982,"battle_deaths":2000,"peers":["JOR","BEN","ZMB","MDG","SSD","GNB","SWZ","GIN","MWI","CIV"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-2.76,"own":-2.78,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-3.39,"own":-2.95,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-8.8,"own":-9.31,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.177,"own":-0.216,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.256,"own":-0.376,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.536,"own":-0.968,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.03,"own":-1.14,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.78,"own":-1.23,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-2.19,"own":-3.62,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2011–2024 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 344 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Laos, Guatemala, Eswatini, Lesotho, Oman and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −40%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.16. The war lasted more than 10 years: its first 10 years are compared, the years after it are not (the pre-war trend is too old).","data":{"episode":"SYR-2011","kind":"modern","from":2011,"to":2024,"battle_deaths":343519,"peers":["LAO","GTM","SWZ","LSO","OMN","BOL","BWA","TKM","HND","SAU"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-40.37,"own":-39.88,"years":10}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.163,"own":0.068,"years":10}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-5.6,"own":-5.51,"years":10}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=SYR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}