{"locations":[{"code":"SWE","name":"Sweden","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/sweden/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.29 in 1950 → 1.42 in 2025 (−38%). Peak: 2.45 in 1964; the latest value is 42% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1992, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 1965 and 1973: +0.01 → −0.07 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.287,"last":1.42,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.448},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1992,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.00816,"slope_after":-0.0673},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.0673,"slope_after":-0.00145}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 115k in 1950 → 97.5k in 2025 (−15%). Peak: 123k in 1991; the latest value is 21% lower. The trend broke around 2002 and 2017: −0.24k → +1.28k → −2.61k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":115.3,"last":97.491,"peak":{"year":1991,"value":123.2},"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.243,"slope_after":1.28},{"year":2017,"slope_before":1.28,"slope_after":-2.61}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.6% in 1990 → 95.8% in 2025 (+95 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2001, above 90% since 2019. Fastest growth in 1997–2002: 23.7% → 70.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0.584,"last":95.7663,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":23.7,"end":70.57}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 72.5% in 1960 → 89.1% in 2025 (+17 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1963. The trend broke around 1971 and 2007: +0.89 → +0.06 → +0.26 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":72.4684,"last":89.0779,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1963,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.886,"slope_after":0.0601},{"year":2007,"slope_before":0.0601,"slope_after":0.261}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 40,200 PPP dollars in 1990 → 63,362 PPP dollars in 2025 (+58%). Low: 37,763 PPP dollars in 1993; +68% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2005: +331 → +1,441 → +476 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":40199.7074,"last":63362.4613,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":37762.5408},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":331,"slope_after":1440},{"year":2005,"slope_before":1440,"slope_after":476}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 2.36 → 1.68. Over the same years: births 123k → 98.1k; urban share 78% → 82.8%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":2.356,"end":1.682,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":122.7,"end":98.12},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":78.0065,"end":82.7897},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.85 → 1.42; births 114k → 97.5k; internet 90.6% → 95.8%; urban share 86.6% → 89.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 58,956 PPP dollars → 63,362 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.847,"end":1.42,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":114,"end":97.491},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":90.6102,"end":95.7663},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":86.6159,"end":89.0779},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":58955.6412,"end":63362.4613}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.67); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.95). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.671,"r_changes":0.946,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.22); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.22).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.217,"r_changes":0.217,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.71); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.706,"r_changes":-0.162,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.29); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.29,"r_changes":0.149,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (62,120 PPP dollars) typically have 1.32; here it is 1.45, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":62120,"yv":1.45,"expected":1.32,"pct":65,"lower":128,"higher":68,"z":0.35}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (62,560 PPP dollars) typically have 98.8%; here it is 95.5%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":62560,"yv":95.53,"expected":98.8,"pct":41,"lower":72,"higher":104,"z":-0.29}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 2.1: 1968; half the population online: 2001. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1968,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2001,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.815,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-15.91},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.548,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-1.4},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.818,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-16.05},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-17.5},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-17.5},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-17.5},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.969,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-22.48},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.953,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-21.85},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.929,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-20.88},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.914,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-20.26},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.843,"actual":1.5263,"gap_pct":-17.18},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.674,"actual":1.42,"gap_pct":-15.17}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-17.5,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.52 (+7% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.58 (+11% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.08.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.42},"values":{"2050":1.522,"2100":1.582},"low_2100":1.082}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −16%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 1.93 for 2024; the outcome was 1.43.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.93,"actual":1.43,"gap":-25.907,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.881,"actual":1.43,"gap":-23.977,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.722,"actual":1.43,"gap":-16.958,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.6951,"actual":1.43,"gap":-15.641,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.49,"actual":1.43,"gap":-4.027,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.45,"actual":1.43,"gap":-1.379,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-16.299,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":96.856,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":7.73},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":81.672,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":27.75},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":97.564,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":6.94},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":108.587,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":-3.91},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":112.528,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":-7.28},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":112.903,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":-7.58},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":120.926,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":-13.72},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":124.55,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":-16.23},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":123.788,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":-15.71},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":124.747,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":-16.36},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":120.168,"actual":104.3395,"gap_pct":-13.17},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":112.923,"actual":97.491,"gap_pct":-13.67}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-10.38,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 97.5k, 1% above the UN 2024 medium variant (97k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":97,"actual_births_k":97.491,"gap_pct":0.5,"un_lower95_births_k":85.1,"below_lower95":false,"source":"SCB API tables BefUtvKon1749 (births) and FruktsamhetSum (TFR)","source_url":"https://api.scb.se/OV0104/v1/doris/sv/ssd/START/BE/BE0101/BE0101G/BefUtvKon1749"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 105k (+7% vs 2025), 2100 — 94.7k (−3% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 40.5k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":97.491},"values":{"2050":104.8,"2100":94.71},"low_2100":40.46}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=SWE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}