{"locations":[{"code":"SVN","name":"Slovenia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/slovenia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.99 in 1950 → 1.58 in 2023 (−47%). Low: 1.20 in 2003; +31% since then. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1981. The trend broke around 1979 and 1996: −0.02 → −0.05 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.992,"last":1.576,"trough":{"year":2003,"value":1.203},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1981,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.0211,"slope_after":-0.0508},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.0508,"slope_after":0.0187}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 34.1k in 1950 → 17.9k in 2023 (−47%). The trend broke around 1980 and 1995: −0.04k → −0.81k → +0.07k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":34.06,"last":17.9,"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.0434,"slope_after":-0.806},{"year":1995,"slope_before":-0.806,"slope_after":0.0716}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 90.8% in 2024 (+91 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2006, above 90% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2000–2005: 15.1% → 46.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":90.7636,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1998,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2000,"to":2005,"start":15.1103,"end":46.81}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 28.2% in 1960 → 56% in 2025 (+28 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2013. The trend broke around 1982 and 2011: +1 → +0.01 → +0.46 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":28.2459,"last":55.9907,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":1.04,"slope_after":0.011},{"year":2011,"slope_before":0.011,"slope_after":0.464}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 25,350 PPP dollars in 1990 → 49,091 PPP dollars in 2025 (+94%). Low: 21,850 PPP dollars in 1992; +125% since then. The trend broke around 2008 and 2014: +1,003 → −194 → +1,135 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":25349.7977,"last":49091.0184,"trough":{"year":1992,"value":21850.0571},"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":1000,"slope_after":-194},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-194,"slope_after":1130}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1950–1960: 2.99 → 2.19. Over the same years: births 34.1k → 28.7k; urban share 28.2% (1960); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":2.992,"end":2.186,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":34.06,"end":28.72},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1960,"value":28.2459},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.55 → 1.58; births 21.2k → 17.9k; internet 72.7% → 90.4%; urban share 50% → 55.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 36,686 PPP dollars → 47,986 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.553,"end":1.576,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":21.19,"end":17.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":72.6756,"end":90.3779},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":50.0467,"end":55.5379},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":36685.7497,"end":47986.4196}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.94); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.941,"r_changes":0.944,"effective_pairs_changes":51,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":0.831,"r_changes":0.019,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.788,"r_changes":0.125,"effective_pairs_changes":37,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.71); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.34). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.715,"r_changes":0.345,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (47,990 PPP dollars) typically have 1.44; here it is 1.58, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":47990,"yv":1.576,"expected":1.44,"pct":64,"lower":126,"higher":70,"z":0.33}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (48,660 PPP dollars) typically have 93.9%; here it is 90.8%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":48660,"yv":90.76,"expected":93.9,"pct":42,"lower":74,"higher":102,"z":-0.28}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; fertility below 2.1: 1981; urban majority: 1984; half the population online: 2006. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1981,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1984,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2006,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +5.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.41,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":13.63},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.256,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":27.56},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.28,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":25.17},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.317,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":21.66},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.375,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":16.52},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.517,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":5.62},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.558,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":2.84},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.553,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":3.17},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.646,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":-2.66},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.638,"actual":1.6022,"gap_pct":-2.19},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.631,"actual":1.576,"gap_pct":-3.37}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":5.62,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (1.58, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.576,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (1.58, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.576,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.60 (+2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.63 (+3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.13.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.576},"values":{"2050":1.603,"2100":1.626},"low_2100":1.126}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 4 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in 1; median gap −3.9%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 1.65 for 2024; the outcome was 1.52.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.65,"actual":1.52,"gap":-7.879,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.6389,"actual":1.52,"gap":-7.254,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.5644,"actual":1.52,"gap":-2.839,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.5993,"actual":1.52,"gap":-4.961,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.52,"actual":1.52,"gap":0,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.51,"actual":1.52,"gap":0.662,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap":-3.9,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +2.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.097,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":31.34},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.244,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":39.2},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.531,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":36.45},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.471,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":28.16},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.321,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":21.49},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":19.279,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":2.85},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":19.792,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":0.18},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":19.825,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":0.02},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":20.945,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":-5.33},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":20.756,"actual":19.828,"gap_pct":-4.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":18.52,"actual":17.9,"gap_pct":-3.35}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":2.85,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected this level (17.9k) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":17.9,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2008,"year_expected_by":null,"years":15,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (17.9k, 2023) only by 2026: reality is at least 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":17.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"year_expected_by":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 17k (−5% vs 2023), 2100 — 13.2k (−26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 5.17k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":17.9},"values":{"2050":16.96,"2100":13.2},"low_2100":5.166}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=SVN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}