{"locations":[{"code":"SOM","name":"Somalia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/somalia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.25 in 1950 → 6.13 in 2023 (−15%). Peak: 7.66 in 1997; the latest value is 20% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 2004: −0.01 → +0.02 → −0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.248,"last":6.132,"peak":{"year":1997,"value":7.662},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.00743,"slope_after":0.0224},{"year":2004,"slope_before":0.0224,"slope_after":-0.0778}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 112k in 1950 → 789k in 2023 (×7.1). The trend broke around 1969: change sped up (+2.73k → +8.84k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":111.8,"last":788.8,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":2.73,"slope_after":8.84}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 27.9% in 2024 (+28 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2019–2024: 2.7% → 27.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":27.9402,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2019,"to":2024,"start":2.7314,"end":27.9402}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 17.7% in 1960 → 55.1% in 2025 (+37 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2018. The trend broke around 2007: change sped up (+0.32 → +1.2 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":17.6662,"last":55.1399,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":0.322,"slope_after":1.2}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 837 PPP dollars in 1991 → 1,404 PPP dollars in 2025 (+68%). Low: 635 PPP dollars in 1994; +121% since then. The trend broke around 2001 and 2018: −14 → +48 → −11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1991,"to":2025,"first":837.267,"last":1403.8139,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":634.7277},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":-14.1,"slope_after":48.4},{"year":2018,"slope_before":48.4,"slope_after":-10.8}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2013–2023: 7.14 → 6.13. Over the same years: births 614k → 789k; internet 1.5% → 26.1%; urban share 41.3% → 54.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,198 PPP dollars → 1,402 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":7.14,"end":6.132,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":614.4,"end":788.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.5,"end":26.1201},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":41.2593,"end":54.0714},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1197.7217,"end":1401.6474}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.36); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.361,"r_changes":0.022,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 27 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":-0.857,"r_changes":0.179,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.55). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.541,"r_changes":-0.546,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1991–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1991,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":-0.922,"r_changes":-0.084,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (1,402 PPP dollars) typically have 4.88; here it is 6.13, higher than in 80% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":1402,"yv":6.132,"expected":4.88,"pct":79,"lower":156,"higher":40,"z":0.86}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (1,409 PPP dollars) typically have 25.4%; here it is 27.9%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":1409,"yv":27.94,"expected":25.4,"pct":57,"lower":101,"higher":75,"z":0.23}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":34.32},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.08,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":10.46},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.129,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":9.58},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.135,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":30.79},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.135,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":30.79},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.746,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":16.88},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.23,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":7.8},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.099,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":10.12},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.121,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":9.72},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.123,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":9.68},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.098,"actual":6.132,"gap_pct":0.56}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":10.12,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (6.13) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.132,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2008,"year_expected_by":null,"years":15,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (6.13) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.132,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"year_expected_by":null,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.60 (−41% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.19 (−64% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.69.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.132},"values":{"2050":3.596,"2100":2.191},"low_2100":1.691}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +38%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":682.649,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":2.03},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":750.272,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":-7.17},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":739.119,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":-5.77},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":428.991,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":62.35},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":427.879,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":62.77},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":458.172,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":52.01},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":488.325,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":42.63},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":503.733,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":38.26},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":497.986,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":39.86},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":644.138,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":8.13},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":774.627,"actual":788.8,"gap_pct":1.83}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":38.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (789k) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":788.8,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"year_expected_by":null,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (789k, 2023) only by 2025: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":788.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.07M (+36% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.06M (+34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 566k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":788.8},"values":{"2050":1070,"2100":1058},"low_2100":566.4}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1978–1978 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Madagascar, Benin, Burundi, Senegal, Algeria and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +2.4%, 1–5 years after it +23%, 6–10 years after +33%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.18, 1–5 years after it +0.40, 6–10 years after +0.98.","data":{"episode":"SOM-1978","kind":"modern","from":1978,"to":1978,"battle_deaths":520,"peers":["MDG","BEN","BDI","SEN","DZA","SSD","SWZ","ZMB","MWI","SLE"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":2.38,"own":2.56,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":22.61,"own":22.47,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":32.95,"own":28.75,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.181,"own":0.17,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.399,"own":0.34,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.979,"own":0.606,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.7,"own":-0.89,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":2.4,"own":1.49,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":4.9,"own":2.68,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1988–1992 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 24 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (South Sudan, Malawi, Oman, Benin, Zambia and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −14%, 1–5 years after it −27%, 6–10 years after −28%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.08, 1–5 years after it +0.19, 6–10 years after +0.18.","data":{"episode":"SOM-1988","kind":"modern","from":1988,"to":1992,"battle_deaths":23848,"peers":["SSD","MWI","OMN","BEN","ZMB","KEN","TZA","GMB","MRT","MDG"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-13.61,"own":-15.1,"years":5},"p1_5":{"gap":-27.06,"own":-29.94,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-27.64,"own":-32.81,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.077,"own":-0.015,"years":5},"p1_5":{"gap":0.193,"own":-0.011,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.179,"own":-0.09,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.2,"own":-0.1,"years":5},"p1_5":{"gap":-2.95,"own":-2.39,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-4.87,"own":-4.7,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2007–2025 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 39 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Malawi, Sierra Leone, Gambia, Guinea, Zambia and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −10%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.07. The war lasted more than 10 years: its first 10 years are compared, the years after it are not (the pre-war trend is too old).","data":{"episode":"SOM-2007","kind":"modern","from":2007,"to":2025,"battle_deaths":38845,"peers":["MWI","SLE","GMB","GIN","ZMB","GNQ","GNB","TLS","MDG","COM"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-10.29,"own":-8.91,"years":10}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.073,"own":-0.213,"years":10}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.31,"own":-0.73,"years":10}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=SOM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}